United States presidential election, 1992

United States presidential election, 1992
United States presidential election, 1992
United States
1988 ←
 November 3, 1992
 → 1996
  44 Bill Clinton 3x4.jpg 43 George H.W. Bush 3x4.jpg Ross Perot Allan Warren cropped.jpg
Nominee Bill Clinton George Bush Ross Perot
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Home state Arkansas Texas Texas
Running mate Al Gore Dan Quayle James Stockdale
Electoral vote 370 168 0
States carried 32 + DC 18 0
Popular vote 44,909,806 39,104,550 19,743,821
Percentage 43.0% 37.5% 18.9%

ElectoralCollege1992.svg
Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by Bush/Quayle, Blue denotes those won by Clinton/Gore.
President before election

George Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Bill Clinton
Democratic

The United States presidential election of 1992 had three major candidates: Incumbent Republican President George Bush; Democratic Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, and independent Texas businessman Ross Perot.

Bush had alienated much of his conservative base by breaking his 1988 campaign pledge against raising taxes, the economy was in a recession, and Bush's perceived greatest strength, foreign policy, was regarded as much less important following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East after the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf War.

Clinton won a plurality in the popular vote, and a wide Electoral College margin. The election was a significant realigning election after three consecutive Republican landslides, as the Democratic Party picked up support in the Northeast, the Great Lakes region and California, but only carried four states in Clinton's native South.

Contents

Nominations

Republican Party nomination

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 1992

Republican candidates

Candidates gallery

Conservative journalist Pat Buchanan was the primary opponent of President Bush. However, Buchanan's best showing was in the New Hampshire primary on 2/18/1992 - where Bush won by a 53-38% margin. President Bush won 73% of all primary votes, with 9,199,463 votes. Buchanan won 2,899,488 votes; unpledged delegates won 287,383 votes, and David Duke, a former Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan and later the founder of the National Association for the Advancement of White People group won 119,115 votes. Just over 100,000 votes were cast for all other candidates, half of which were write-in votes for H. Ross Perot [1]

President George Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle easily won renomination by the Republican Party. However, the success of the conservative opposition forced the moderate Bush to move further to the right than in 1988, and to incorporate many socially conservative planks in the party platform. Bush allowed Buchanan to give the keynote address at the Republican National Convention in Houston, Texas, and his culture war speech alienated many moderates. David Duke also entered the Republican primary, but performed poorly at the polls.

With intense pressure on the Buchanan delegates to relent, the tally for president went as follows:

Vice President Dan Quayle was renominated by voice vote.

Democratic Party nomination

Main article: Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 1992

Democratic candidates

Candidates gallery

Overview

After the successful performance by U.S. and coalition forces in the Persian Gulf War, President George Bush's approval ratings were 89%. His re-election was considered very likely. As a result, several high profile candidates such as Mario Cuomo refused to seek the Democratic nomination. In addition, Senator Al Gore refused to seek the nomination due to the fact his son was struck by a car and was undergoing extensive surgery as well as physical therapy. However, several candidates such as Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown, Bob Kerrey, Douglas Wilder and Bill Clinton chose to run.

U.S. Senator Tom Harkin (Iowa) ran as a populist liberal with labor union support. Former U.S. Senator Paul Tsongas (Massachusetts) highlighted his political independence and fiscal conservatism. Former California Governor Jerry Brown, who had run for the Democratic nomination in 1976 and 1980 while he was still Governor, declared a significant reform agenda, including Congressional term limits, campaign finance reform, and the adoption of a flat income tax. Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey was an attractive candidate based on his business and military background, but made several gaffes on the campaign trail. Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton positioned himself as a centrist, or New Democrat. He was still relatively unknown nationally before the primary season. That quickly changed however, when a woman named Gennifer Flowers appeared in the press to reveal allegations of an affair. Clinton rebutted the story by appearing on 60 Minutes with his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The primary season began with U.S. Senator Tom Harkin winning his native Iowa as expected. Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts won the New Hampshire primary on February 18 but Clinton's second place finish, helped by his speech labeling himself "The Comeback Kid," energized his campaign. Jerry Brown won the Maine caucus and Bob Kerrey won South Dakota. Clinton won his first primary in Georgia. Tsongas won the Utah and Maryland primaries and a caucus in Washington. Harkin won caucuses in Idaho and Minnesota while Jerry Brown won Colorado. Bob Kerrey dropped out two days later. Clinton won the South Carolina and Wyoming primaries and Tsongas won Arizona. Harkin dropped out. Jerry Brown won the Nevada caucus. Clinton swept nearly all of the Super Tuesday primaries on March 10 making him the solid front runner. Clinton won the Michigan and Illinois primaries. Tsongas dropped out after finishing 3rd in Michigan. Jerry Brown, however, began to pick up steam, aided by using a 1-800 number to receive funding from small donors. Brown scored surprising wins in Connecticut, Vermont and Alaska. As the race moved to the primaries in New York and Wisconsin, Brown had taken the lead in polls in both states. Then he made a serious gaffe by announcing to an audience of New York City's Jewish community that, if nominated, he would consider Reverend Jesse Jackson as a Vice Presidential candidate. Clinton won dramatically in New York (41%-26%) and closely in Wisconsin (37%-34%). Clinton then proceeded to win a long streak primaries leading up to Jerry Brown's home state of California. Clinton won this primary 48% to 41% and secured the delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

The convention met in New York, New York, and the official tally was:

Clinton chose U.S. Senator Al Gore (D-Tennessee) to be his running mate on July 9, 1992. Choosing fellow Southerner Gore went against the popular strategy of balancing a Southern candidate with a Northern partner. Gore did serve to balance the ticket in other ways, as he was perceived as strong on family values and environmental issues, while Clinton was not.[2] Also, Gore's similarities to Clinton allowed him to push some of his key campaign themes, such as centrism and generational change.[3]

Perot candidacy

Main article: Ross Perot presidential campaign, 1992

The public's concern about the federal budget deficit and fears of professional politicians allowed the independent candidacy of billionaire Texan Ross Perot to explode on the scene in dramatic fashion—at one point Perot was leading the major party candidates in the polls.[4] Perot crusaded against the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), internal and external national debt, tapping into voters' potential fear of the deficit. His volunteers succeeded in collecting enough signatures to get his name on the ballot in all 50 states. In June, Perot led the national public opinion polls with support from 39% of the voters (versus 31% for Bush and 25% for Clinton).[4] Perot severely damaged his credibility by dropping out of the presidential contest in July and remaining out of the race for several weeks before re-entering. He compounded this damage by eventually claiming, without evidence, that his withdrawal was due to Republican operatives attempting to disrupt his daughter's wedding.[5]

Other nominations

The 1992 campaign also marked the entry of Ralph Nader into presidential politics as a candidate. Despite the advice of several liberal and environmental groups, Nader did not formally run. Rather, he tried to make an impact in the New Hampshire primaries, urging members of both parties to write-in his name.[6] As a result, several thousand Democrats and Republicans wrote-in Nader's name. Despite supporting mostly liberal legislation during his career as a consumer advocate, Nader received more votes from Republicans than Democrats.

The Libertarian Party nominated Andre Marrou, former Alaska representative and the Party's 1988 vice-presidential candidate, for President. Nancy Lord was his running mate. The Marrou/Lord ticket made the ballot in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., and received 291,627 votes (0.28% of the popular vote).

Former United States Army Special Forces officer and Vietnam veteran Bo Gritz was the nominee of the Populist Party. He received 106,152 votes nationwide (0.10% of the popular vote).

Psychotherapist and political activist Lenora Fulani, who was the 1988 presidential nominee of the New Alliance Party, received a second consecutive nomination from the Party in 1992. Fulani and running mate Maria Elizabeth Munoz received 73,622 votes (0.07% of the popular vote).

The U.S. Taxpayers Party ran its first presidential ticket in 1992, nominating conservative political activist Howard Phillips. Phillips and running mate Albion Knight, Jr. drew 43,369 votes (0.04% of the popular vote).

The newly formed Natural Law Party nominated scientist and researcher John Hagelin for President and Mike Tompkins for Vice President. The party's first presidential ticket appeared on the ballot in 32 states and drew 39,000 votes (0.04% of the popular vote).

Some candidates achieved write in status and/or ballot status in only one state. New Jersey native Drew Bradford was on the ballot only in his home state, drawing 4,749 votes, finishing 12th overall (.14% of the popular vote in NJ, .01% nationwide). Delbert L. Ehlers was another such independent candidate. On the ballot in Iowa, he finished 6th in his home state, receiving more votes than Libertarian Andre Marrou in Iowa, finishing 18th nationwide (1,149 votes, .09% of the popular vote in Iowa).

General election

Campaign

After Bill Clinton secured the Democratic Party's nomination in the spring of 1992, polls showed Ross Perot leading the race, followed by President Bush and Clinton in third place after a grueling nomination process. Two way trial heats between Bush and Clinton in early 1993 showed Bush in the lead, however.[7][8][9][10] But as the economy continued to grow sour, the President's approval rating continued to slide, and the Democrats began to rally around their nominee. On July 9, 1992, Clinton chose Tennessee Senator and former 1988 Presidential candidate Al Gore to be his running mate.[11] As Governor Clinton's nomination acceptance speech approached, Ross Perot dropped out of the race, convinced that staying in the race with a "revitalized Democratic Party" would cause the race to be decided by the United States House of Representatives.[12] Clinton gave his acceptance speech on July 17, 1992, promising to bring a "new covenant" to America, and to work to heal the gap that had developed between the rich and the poor during the Reagan/Bush years. The Clinton campaign received the biggest convention "bounce" in history[13] which brought him from 25 percent in the spring, behind Bush and Perot, to 55 percent versus Bush's 31 percent.

After the convention, Clinton and Gore began a bus tour around the United States, while the Bush/Quayle campaign, began to criticize at Clinton's character, highlighting accusations of infidelity and draft dodging. The Bush campaign emphasized its foreign policy successes such as Desert Storm, and the end of the Cold War. Bush also contrasted his military service to Clinton's lack thereof, and criticized Clinton's lack of foreign policy expertise. However, as the economy was the main issue, Bush's campaign floundered across the nation, even in strongly Republican areas,[14] and Clinton maintained leads with over 50 percent of the vote nationwide consistently, while Bush typically saw numbers in the upper 30s.[15] As Bush's economic edge had evaporated, his campaign looked to energize its socially conservative base at the 1992 Republican National Convention in Houston, Texas. At the Convention, Bush's primary campaign opponent Pat Buchanan gave his famous "culture war" speech, criticizing at Clinton and Gore's social progressiveness, and voicing skepticism on his "New Democrat" brand. After President Bush accepted his renomination, his campaign saw a small bounce in the polls, but this was short lived, as Clinton maintained his lead.[16] The campaign continued with a lopsided lead for Clinton through September,[17] until Ross Perot decided to re-enter the race.[18] Ross Perot's re-entry in the race was welcome by the Bush campaign, as Fred Steeper, a poll taker for Bush, said, "He'll be important if we accomplish our goal, which is to draw even with Clinton." Initially, Perot's return saw the Texas billionaire's numbers stay low, until he was given the opportunity to participate in a trio of unprecedented three-man debates. The race narrowed, as Perot's numbers significantly improved as Clinton's numbers declined, while Bush's numbers remained more or less the same from earlier in the race[19] as Perot and Bush began to hammer at Clinton on character issues once again.

Character issues

Many character issues were raised during the campaign, including allegations that Clinton had dodged the draft during the Vietnam War, and had used marijuana, which Clinton claimed he had pretended to smoke, but "didn't inhale." Bush also accused Clinton of meeting with communists on a trip to Russia he took as a student. Clinton was often accused of being a philanderer by political opponents.

Allegations were also made that Bill Clinton had engaged in a long-term extramarital affair with Gennifer Flowers.[20] Clinton denied ever having an affair with Flowers.[21]


Election results by county.
  Bill Clinton
  George Bush
  Ross Perot

On November 3, Bill Clinton won the election to be the 42nd President of the United States by a wide margin in the Electoral College, receiving 43 percent of the popular vote against Bush's 37 percent and Perot's 19%. It was the second largest electoral vote shift in American history (517 vote shift), after Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976 (560 vote shift). It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the White House with under 50 percent of the popular vote. Only Washington, D.C. and Clinton's home state of Arkansas gave the majority of their votes to a single candidate in the entire country; the rest were won by pluralities of the vote.

President Bush's 37.4% was the lowest percentage total for a sitting president seeking re-election since William Howard Taft in 1912 (23.2%).[22] The 1912 election was also a three way race between Taft, Woodrow Wilson, and Theodore Roosevelt.

It was also the lowest percentage for a major-party candidate since Alf Landon received 36.5% of the vote in 1936. Bush had a lower percentage of the popular vote than even Herbert Hoover who was defeated in 1932 (Hoover received 39.7%).

Independent candidate Ross Perot received 19,741,065 with 18.9 percent of the popular vote for President. The billionaire used his own money to advertise extensively, and is the only third-party candidate ever allowed into the nationally televised presidential debates with both major party candidates (Independent John Anderson debated Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980, but without Democrat Jimmy Carter who had refused to appear in a three-man debate). Speaking about the North American Free Trade Agreement, Perot described its effect on American jobs as causing a "giant sucking sound". Perot was ahead in the polls for a period of almost two months - a feat not accomplished by an independent candidate in almost 100 years.[citation needed] Perot lost much of his support when he temporarily withdrew from the election, only to declare himself a candidate again soon after.

Perot's almost 19% of the popular vote made him the most successful third-party presidential candidate in terms of popular vote since Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 election. Also, Ross Perot's 19% of the popular vote was the highest ever percent of the popular vote for a candidate who did not win any electoral votes.

Although he did not win any states, Perot managed to finish ahead of one of the two major party candidates in two states: In Maine, Perot received 30.44% of the vote to Bush's 30.39% (Clinton won Maine with 38.77%); in Utah, Perot received 27.34% of the vote to Clinton's 24.65% (Bush won Utah with 43.36%).

The election was the most recent in which Georgia and Montana voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. 1992 was also the first time a Democrat won the White House without winning the state of Texas and the second time that a Democrat won without winning the state of Florida (John F. Kennedy in 1960 was the first), and as of 2008, Clinton remains the only Democrat to win an election without carrying North Carolina. He was also the only Democrat at that point to win every electoral vote in the Northeast except for Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Every Democrat since Clinton has repeated this result, except for Al Gore, who narrowly lost New Hampshire in 2000. Also, this was the first time since 1964 that many states voted Democratic, such as California, Colorado, Illinois, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Vermont.

Analysis

Several factors made the results possible. First, the campaign came on the heels of an economic slowdown. Exit polling shows[23] that 75% thought the economy was in Fairly Bad or Very Bad shape while 63% thought their personal finances were better or the same as four years ago. The decision by Bush to accept a tax increase adversely affected his re-election bid. Pressured by rising budget deficits, Bush agreed to a budget compromise with Congress which raised taxes. Clinton was able to condemn the tax increase effectively on both its own merits and as a reflection of Bush's honesty. Effective Democratic TV ads were aired showing a clip of Bush's infamous 1988 campaign speech in which he promised "Read my lips ... No new taxes." Most importantly, Bush's coalition was in disarray, for both the aforementioned reasons and for unrelated reasons. The end of the Cold War allowed old rivalries among conservatives to re-emerge and meant that other voters focused more on domestic policy, to the detriment of Bush, a social and fiscal moderate. The consequence of such a perception depressed conservative turnout.[24]

Unlike Bush, Clinton was able to unite his fractious and ideologically diverse party behind his candidacy, even when its different wings were in conflict. To garner the support of moderates and conservative Democrats, he attacked Sister Souljah, a little-known rap musician whose lyrics Clinton condemned. Furthermore, Clinton made clear his support of the death penalty and would later champion school uniforms. Clinton could also point to his centrist record as Governor of Arkansas. He was able to take back a number of southern states that the GOP had been winning for almost two decades, and crucially, the New England states as well. More liberal Democrats were impressed by Clinton's record on abortion and affirmative action. His strong connections to African Americans also played a key role. In addition, he organized significant numbers of young voters and became a symbol of the rise of the Baby Boomer generation to political power. Supporters remained energized and confident, even in times of scandal or missteps.

The effect of Ross Perot's candidacy has been a contentious point of debate for many years. In the ensuing months after the election, various Republicans asserted that Perot had acted as a spoiler, enough to the detriment of Bush to lose him the election. While many disaffected conservatives may have voted for Ross Perot to protest Bush's tax increase, further examination of the Perot vote in the Election Night exit polls not only showed that Perot siphoned votes nearly equally among Bush and Clinton,[25] but of the voters who cited Bush's broken "No New Taxes" pledge as "very important," two thirds voted for Bill Clinton.[26] A mathematical look at the voting numbers reveals that Bush would have had to win 12.2% of Perot's 18.8% of the vote, 65% of Perot's support base, to earn a majority of the vote, and would have needed to win nearly every state Clinton won by less than five percentage points.[27] Furthermore, his best results were in states that strongly favored either Clinton or Bush, or carried few electoral votes, limiting his real electoral impact for either candidate. Perot appealed to disaffected voters all across the political spectrum who had grown weary of the two-party system. NAFTA played a role in Perot's support, and Perot voters were relatively moderate on hot button social issues.[28][29]

Clinton, Bush, and Perot did not focus on abortion during the campaign. Exit polls, however, showed that attitudes toward abortion "significantly influenced" the vote, as pro-choice Republicans defected from Bush.[30][31]

Implications

Clinton's election ended an era in which the Republican Party had controlled the White House for 12 consecutive years, and for 20 of the previous 24 years. That election also brought the Democrats full control of the legislative and executive branches of the federal government, including both houses of U.S. Congress and the presidency, for the first time since the administration of the last Democratic president, Jimmy Carter. This would not last for very long, however, as the Republicans won control of both the House and Senate in 1994. Reelected in 1996, Clinton would become the first Democratic President since Franklin D. Roosevelt to serve two full terms in the White House.

1992 was arguably a "realigning" election. It made the Democratic Party dominant in presidential elections in the Northeast, the Great Lakes region, and the West Coast, where many states had previously either been swing states or Republican-leaning. Clinton picked up several states that went Republican in 1988, and which, to date, have remained in the Democratic column ever since: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Vermont. Vermont, carried by Clinton, had been heavily Republican for generations prior to the election, voting for a Democrat only once (in 1964).[32] The state has been carried by the Democratic nominee in every presidential election since. California, which had previously been a Republican stronghold from 1952 to 1988, was now solidly Democratic. The fact that Bill Clinton, despite being a lifelong Southerner, won only four of eleven ex-Confederate states reflected the final shift of the South into the Republican Party.

Detailed results

Presidential candidate Party Home state Popular vote Electoral
vote		 Running mate
Count Pct Vice-presidential candidate Home state Elect. vote
Bill Clinton Democratic Arkansas 44,909,806 43.01% 370 Al Gore Tennessee 370
George Bush Republican Texas 39,104,550 37.45% 168 Dan Quayle Indiana 168
Ross Perot Independent Texas 19,743,821 18.91% 0 James Stockdale California 0
Andre Marrou Libertarian Alaska 290,087 0.28% 0 Nancy Lord Nevada 0
Bo Gritz Populist Nevada 106,152 0.10% 0 Cy Minett New Mexico 0
Lenora Fulani New Alliance Party New York 73,622 0.07% 0 Maria Munoz California 0
Howard Phillips U.S. Taxpayers Party Virginia 43,369 0.04% 0 Albion Knight, Jr. Florida 0
Other 152,516 0.13% — Other —
Total 104,423,923 100% 538 538
Needed to win 270 270

Source (Popular Vote): Leip, David. 1992 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (August 7, 2005).

Source (Electoral Vote): Electoral College Box Scores 1789–1996. Official website of the National Archives. (August 7, 2005).

Results by state[33]

Bill Clinton
Democratic		 George Bush
Republican		 Ross Perot
Independent		 Others State Total
State electoral
votes		 #  % electoral
votes		 #  % electoral
votes		 #  % electoral
votes		 #  % electoral
votes		 #
Alabama 9 690,080 40.88 - 804,283 47.65 9 183,109 10.85 - 10,588 0.64 - 1,688,060 AL
Alaska 3 78,294 30.29 - 102,000 39.46 3 73,481 28.43 - 4,731 1.83 - 258,506 AK
Arizona 8 543,050 36.52 - 572,086 38.47 8 353,741 23.79 - 18,129 1.22 - 1,487,006 AZ
Arkansas 6 505,823 53.21 6 337,324 35.48 - 99,132 10.43 - 8,374 0.88 - 168,499 AR
California 54 5,121,325 46.01 54 3,630,574 32.61 - 2,296,006 20.63 - 83,816 0.75 - 11,131,721 CA
Colorado 8 629,681 40.13 8 562,850 35.87 - 366,010 23.32 - 10,639 0.68 - 1,569,180 CO
Connecticut 8 682,318 42.21 8 578,313 35.78 - 348,771 21.58 - 6,930 0.43 - 1,616,332 CT
Delaware 3 126,054 43.52 3 102,313 35.78 - 59,213 20.45 - 2,040 0.70 - 289,620 DE
D.C. 3 192,619 84.64 3 20,698 9.10 - 9,681 4.25 - 4,574 2.01 - 227,572 DC
Florida 25 2,072,698 39 - 2,173,310 40.89 25 1,053,067 19.82 - 15,317 0.29 - 5,314,392 FL
Georgia 13 1,008,966 43.47 13 995,252 42.88 - 309,657 13.44 - 7,258 0.13 - 2,321,133 GA
Hawaii 4 179,310 48.09 4 136,822 36.70 - 53,003 14.22 - 3,707 0.99 - 372,842 HI
Idaho 4 137,013 28.42 - 202,645 42.03 4 130,395 27.05 - 12,061 2.5 - 482,114 ID
Illinois 22 2,453,350 48.58 22 1,734,096 34.34 - 840,515 16.64 - 22,196 0.44 - 5,050,157 IL
Indiana 12 848,420 36.79 - 989,375 42.91 12 455,934 19.77 - 12,142 0.53 - 2,305,871 IN
Iowa 7 586,353 43.29 7 504,891 37.27 - 253,468 18.71 - 9,895 0.73 - 1,354,607 IA
Kansas 6 390,434 33.74 - 449,951 38.88 6 312,358 26.99 - 4,513 0.39 - 1,157,256 KS
Kentucky 8 665,104 44.55 8 617,178 41.34 - 203,944 13.66 - 6,674 0.45 - 1,492,900 KY
Louisiana 9 815,971 45.58 9 733,386 40.97 - 211,478 11.81 - 29,182 1.63 - 1,790,017 LA
Maine 4 263,420 38.77 4 206,504 30.39 - 206,820 30.44 - 2,755 0.44 - 679,499 ME
Maryland 10 988,571 49.80 10 707,094 35.62 - 281,414 14.18 - 7,967 0.40 - 1,985,046 MD
Massachusetts 12 1,318,662 47.54 12 805,049 29.03 - 632,312 22.80 - 17,551 0.63 - 2,773,574 MA
Michigan 18 1,871,182 43.77 18 1,554,940 36.38 - 824,813 19.30 - 23,738 0.56 - 4,274,673 MI
Minnesota 10 1,020,997 43.48 10 747,841 31.85 - 562,506 23.96 - 16,604 0.71 - 2,347,948 MN
Mississippi 7 400,258 40.77 - 487,793 49.68 7 85,626 8.72 - 8,116 0.83 - 981,793 MS
Missouri 11 1,053,873 44.07 11 811,159 33.92 - 518,741 21.69 - 7,497 0.31 - 2,391,270 MO
Montana 3 154,507 37.63 3 144,207 35.12 - 107,225 26.12 - 4,644 1.13 - 410,583 MT
Nebraska 5 217,344 29.40 - 344,346 46.58 5 174,687 23.63 - 2,906 0.39 - 739,283 NE
Nevada 4 189,148 37.36 4 175,828 34.73 - 132,580 26.19 - 8,762 1.73 - 506,318 NV
New Hampshire 4 209,040 38.91 4 202,484 37.69 - 121,337 22.59 - 4,354 0.81 - 537,215 NH
New Jersey 15 1,436,206 42.95 15 1,356,865 40.58 - 521,829 15.61 - 28,694 0.86 - 3,343,594 NJ
New Mexico 5 261,617 45.90 5 212,824 37.34 - 91,895 16.12 - 3,650 0.64 - 569,986 NM
New York 33 3,444,450 49.73 33 2,346,649 33.88 - 1,090,721 15.75 - 45,105 0.65 - 6,926,925 NY
North Carolina 14 1,114,042 42.65 - 1,134,661 43.44 14 357,864 13.70 - 5,283 0.20 - 2,611,850 NC
North Dakota 3 99,168 32.18 - 136,244 44.22 3 71,084 23.07 - 1,637 0.53 - 308,133 ND
Ohio 21 1,984,942 40.18 21 1,894,310 38.35 - 1,036,426 20.98 - 24,286 0.49 - 2,611,850 OH
Oklahoma 8 473,066 34.02 - 592,929 42.65 8 319,878 23.01 - 4,486 0.32 - 1,390,359 OK
Oregon 7 621,314 42.48 7 475,757 32.53 - 354,091 24.21 - 11,481 0.78 - 1,462,643 OR
Pennsylvania 23 2,239,164 45.15 23 1,791,841 36.13 - 902,667 18.20 - 26,138 0.53 - 4,959,810 PA
Rhode Island 4 213,299 47.04 4 131,601 29.02 - 105,045 23.16 - 3,532 0.78 - 453,477 RI
South Carolina 8 479,514 39.88 - 577,507 48.02 8 138,872 11.55 - 6,634 0.55 - 1,202,527 SC
South Dakota 3 124,888 37.14 - 136,718 40.66 3 73,295 21.80 - 1,353 0.40 - 336,254 SD
Tennessee 11 933,521 47.08 11 841,300 42.43 - 199,968 10.09 - 7,849 0.40 - 1,982,638 TN
Texas 32 2,281,815 37.08 - 2,496,071 40.56 32 1,354,781 22.01 - 21,351 0.35 - 6,154,018 TX
Utah 5 183,429 24.65 - 322,632 43.36 5 203,400 27.34 - 34,537 4.64 - 743,998 UT
Vermont 3 133,592 46.11 3 88,122 30.42 - 65,991 22.78 - 7,849 0.69 - 289,701 VT
Virginia 13 1,038,650 40.59 - 1,150,517 44.97 13 348,639 13.63 - 20,859 0.82 - 2,558,665 VA
Washington 11 993,037 43.41 11 731,234 31.97 - 541,780 23.68 - 21,514 0.94 - 2,287,565 WA
West Virginia 5 331,001 48.41 5 241,974 35.39 - 108,829 15.91 - 1,873 0.27 - 683,677 WV
Wisconsin 11 1,041,066 41.13 11 930,855 36.78 - 544,479 21.51 - 14,714 0.58 - 2,531,114 WI
Wyoming 3 68,160 34.10 - 79,347 39.70 3 51,263 25.65 - 1,114 0.56 - 199,884 WY
TOTALS: 538 44,909,806 43.01 370 39,104,550 37.45 168 19,743,821 18.91 - 665,746 0.64 - 104,423,923

Close states

States where margin of victory < 5%

  1. Georgia - 0.6%
  2. North Carolina - 0.7%
  3. New Hampshire - 1.2%
  4. Ohio - 1.8%
  5. Florida - 1.9%
  6. Arizona - 2.0%
  7. New Jersey - 2.4%
  8. Montana - 2.5%
  9. Nevada - 2.6%
  10. Kentucky - 3.2%
  11. Texas - 3.5%
  12. South Dakota - 3.5%
  13. Colorado - 4.3%
  14. Wisconsin - 4.4%
  15. Virginia - 4.4%
  16. Louisiana - 4.6%
  17. Tennessee - 4.7%

States where margin of victory > 5% < 10%

  1. Kansas - 5.14%
  2. Wyoming - 5.6%
  3. Iowa - 6.02%
  4. Indiana - 6.12%
  5. Connecticut - 6.43%
  6. Alabama - 6.77%
  7. Michigan - 7.39%
  8. South Carolina - 8.14%
  9. Delaware - 8.19%
  10. Maine - 8.33%
  11. New Mexico - 8.56%
  12. Oklahoma - 8.63%
  13. Mississippi - 8.91%
  14. Pennsylvania - 9.02%
  15. Alaska - 9.17%
  16. Oregon - 9.95%

Source: New York Times President Map

Voter demographics

The Presidential Vote In Social Groups (In Percentages)
% of
1992
total
vote		 3-party vote
1992 1996
Social group Clinton Bush Perot Clinton Dole Perot
Total vote 43 37 19 49 41 8
Party and ideology
2 Liberal Republicans 17 54 30 44 48 9
13 Moderate Republicans 15 63 21 20 72 7
21 Conservative Republicans 5 82 13 6 88 5
4 Liberal Independents 54 17 30 58 15 18
15 Moderate Independents 43 28 30 50 30 17
7 Conservative Independents 17 53 30 19 60 19
13 Liberal Democrats 85 5 11 89 5 4
20 Moderate Democrats 76 9 15 84 10 5
6 Conservative Democrats 61 23 16 69 23 7
Gender and marital status
33 Married men 38 42 21 40 48 10
33 Married women 41 40 19 48 43 7
15 Unmarried men 48 29 22 49 35 12
20 Unmarried women 53 31 15 62 28 7
Race
83 White 39 40 20 43 46 9
10 Black 83 10 7 84 12 4
5 Hispanic 61 25 14 72 21 6
1 Asian 31 55 15 43 48 8
Religion
46 White Protestant 33 47 21 36 53 10
29 Catholic 44 35 20 53 37 9
3 Jewish 80 11 9 78 16 3
17 Born Again, religious right 23 61 15 26 65 8
Age
17 18–29 years old 43 34 22 53 34 10
33 30–44 years old 41 38 21 48 41 9
26 45–59 years old 41 40 19 48 41 9
24 60 and older 50 38 12 48 44 7
Education
6 Not a high school graduate 54 28 18 59 28 11
24 High school graduate 43 36 21 51 35 13
27 Some college education 41 37 21 48 40 10
26 College graduate 39 41 20 44 46 8
17 Post graduate education 50 36 14 52 40 5
Family income
11 Under $15,000 58 23 19 59 28 11
23 $15,000–$29,999 45 35 20 53 36 9
27 $30,000–$49,999 41 38 21 48 40 10
39 Over $50,000 39 44 17 44 48 7
18 Over $75,000 36 48 16 41 51 7
9 Over $100,000 — — — 38 54 6
Region
23 East 47 35 18 55 34 9
26 Midwest 42 37 21 48 41 10
30 South 41 43 16 46 46 7
20 West 43 34 23 48 40 8
Community size
10 Population over 500,000 58 28 13 68 25 6
21 Population 50,000 to 500,000 50 33 16 50 39 8
39 Suburbs 41 39 21 47 42 8
30 Rural areas, towns 39 40 20 45 44 10

Source: Voter News Service exit poll, reported in The New York Times, November 10, 1996, 28.

See also

References

  1. ^ Our Campaigns - US President - R Primaries Race - February 01, 1992
  2. ^ Ifill, Gwen (1992-07-10), "Clinton Selects Senator Gore Of Tennessee As Running Mate", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/07/10/us/1992-campaign-democrats-clinton-selects-senator-gore-tennessee-running-mate.html 
  3. ^ Al Gore, United States Senate, http://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/generic/VP_Albert_Gore.htm 
  4. ^ a b "The 1992 Campaign: On the Trail; Poll Gives Perot a Clear Lead", The New York Times, 1992-06-11, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/06/11/us/the-1992-campaign-on-the-trail-poll-gives-perot-a-clear-lead.html 
  5. ^ Berke, Richard L. (1992-10-26), "The 1992 Campaign: The Overview; Perot Says He Quit In July To Thwart G.O.P. 'Dirty Tricks'", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/10/26/us/1992-campaign-overview-perot-says-he-quit-july-thwart-gop-dirty-tricks.html 
  6. ^ Kolbert, Elizabeth (1992-02-18), "In Nader's Campaign, White House Isn't the Goal", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/02/18/us/the-1992-campaign-write-in-in-nader-s-campaign-white-house-isn-t-the-goal.html 
  7. ^ Toner, Robin (1992-03-03), "Voters Are Unhappy With All the Choices", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/03/03/us/the-1992-campaign-poll-in-poll-voters-are-unhappy-with-all-the-choices.html 
  8. ^ Toner, Robin (1992-04-01), "Clinton Dogged By Voter Doubt, Poll of U.S. Says", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/04/01/us/the-1992-campaign-poll-clinton-dogged-by-voter-doubt-poll-of-us-says.html 
  9. ^ Toner, Robin (1992-04-26), "Poll Shows Perot Gaining Strength To Rival Clinton's", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/04/26/us/the-1992-campaign-poll-poll-shows-perot-gaining-strength-to-rival-clinton-s.html 
  10. ^ Toner, Robin (1992-06-23), "Bush and Clinton Sag in Survey; Perot's Negative Rating Doubles", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/06/23/us/1992-campaign-poll-bush-clinton-sag-survey-perot-s-negative-rating-doubles.html 
  11. ^ "Their Own Words; Excerpts From Clinton's and Gore's Remarks on the Ticket", The New York Times, 1992-07-10, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/07/10/us/1992-campaign-their-own-words-excerpts-clinton-s-gore-s-remarks-ticket.html 
  12. ^ "Captain Perot Jumps Ship", The New York Times, 1992-07-17, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/07/17/opinion/captain-perot-jumps-ship.html 
  13. ^ Apple, R. W., Jr. (1992-07-18), "Poll Gives Clinton a Post-Perot, Post-Convention Boost", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/07/18/us/the-1992-campaign-overview-poll-gives-clinton-a-post-perot-post-convention-boost.html 
  14. ^ Miller, Judith (1992-08-16), "The Republicans: Can They Get It Together?", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/08/16/magazine/the-republicans-can-they-get-it-together.html 
  15. ^ "Bush Trails, to Varying Degrees, in 3 Polls", The New York Times, 1992-08-17, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/08/17/news/party-in-the-spotlight-bush-trails-to-varying-degrees-in-3-polls.html 
  16. ^ Clymer, Adam (1992-08-26), "Bush's Gains From Convention Nearly Evaporate in Latest Poll", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/08/26/us/the-1992-campaign-bush-s-gains-from-convention-nearly-evaporate-in-latest-poll.html 
  17. ^ "Clinton Takes 21-Point Lead Over President in a New Poll", The New York Times, 1992-09-22, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/09/22/us/the-1992-campaign-clinton-takes-21-point-lead-over-president-in-a-new-poll.html 
  18. ^ Toner, Robin (1992-09-30), "Campaign Strategy; 2 Camps Regard A Perot Revival With Less Fear", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/09/30/us/1992-campaign-campaign-strategy-2-camps-regard-perot-revival-with-less-fear.html 
  19. ^ Toner, Robin (1992-10-25), "Contest Tightens As Perot Resurges And Clinton Slips", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/10/25/us/1992-campaign-overview-contest-tightens-perot-resurges-clinton-slips.html 
  20. ^ Conason, Joe (July/August 1992). "Reason No. 1 Not To Vote For Bill Clinton: He Cheats on His Wife." Spy magazine.
  21. ^ Kurtz, Howard (August 12, 1992). "Clinton Angrily Denounces Report of Extramarital Affair as 'a Lie.'" The Washington Post.
  22. ^ Kornacki, Steve (2011-01-21) Why the "good" Iraq war wasn't so good, Salon.com
  23. ^ Topics at a Glance--iPOLL summary results, http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/cgi-bin/hsrun.exe/roperweb/pom/pom.htx;start=ipollsearch?TopID=444 
  24. ^ Toner, Robin (1992-11-11), "The Republicans; Looking to the Future, Party Sifts Through Past", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/11/11/us/the-transition-the-republicans-looking-to-the-future-party-sifts-through-past.html 
  25. ^ http://archive.fairvote.org/plurality/perot.htm
  26. ^ Schmalz, Jeffrey (1992-11-04), "Clinton Carves a Path Deep Into Reagan Country", The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/11/04/nyregion/1992-election-nation-s-voters-clinton-carves-wide-path-deep-into-reagan-country.html 
  27. ^ 1992 Presidential Election - What if Scenario, http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe1992whatif.html 
  28. ^ Public Opinion Watch, http://www.tcf.org/list.asp?type=NC&pubid=1120#perot 
  29. ^ Mishel, Lawrence; Teixeira, Ruy A. (1998-12-30), The Political Arithmetic of the NAFTA Vote, http://www.epi.org/briefingpapers/1993_bp_political.pdf 
  30. ^ Critchlow, Donald T. (2004), Intended Consequences: Birth Control, Abortion, and the Federal Government in Modern America, New York: Oxford University Press, p. 221, ISBN 0195046579 
  31. ^ Abramowitz (1995)
  32. ^ http://www.270towin.com/states/Vermont
  33. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=1992&datatype=national&def=1&f=0&off=0&elect=0

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