Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2010

Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2010
Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2010
Minnesota
2006 ←
 November 2, 2010
 → 2014
  Mark Dayton official photo.jpg Emmer.jpg
Nominee Mark Dayton Tom Emmer Tom Horner
Party DFL Republican Independence
Running mate Yvonne Prettner Solon Annette Meeks Jim Mulder
Popular vote 919,232 910,462 251,487
Percentage 43.6% 43.2% 11.9%

MNgov2010.png
County results
Governor before election

Tim Pawlenty
Republican

 Elected Governor

Mark Dayton
DFL
Elections in Minnesota
Minnesota state seal.png

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The 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the 40th Governor of the U.S. state of Minnesota for a four-year term to begin in January 2011. The general election was contested by the major party candidates State Representative Tom Emmer (R-Delano), former Senator Mark Dayton (DFL), and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. After a very close race, Dayton was elected Governor.[1]

Contents

Campaign history

Primary elections

The primary elections were held August 10, 2010. Dayton earned his spot by winning a very closely contested primary for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor endorsement, defeating Matt Entenza and Margaret Anderson Kelliher. Tom Horner easily defeated Rob Hahn in the Independence Party race. Endorsed Republican candidate Tom Emmer easily won the Republican nomination.[2][3]

General election

Early polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents, with Horner trailing far behind, and a large percentage of voters undecided.[4][5][6] As the race progressed, polls showed the candidates even, or Dayton with a small but significant lead.[7] The non-partisan Cook Political Report, CQ Politics and pollster Rasmussen Reports rate the gubernatorial election as a toss-up.[8][9][10][11][12] New York Times political statistician Nate Silver gave Dayton an 86 percent chance of winning, and Emmer a 14 percent chance of winning.[13]

Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8770 votes (0.42%).[14] The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law, but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton's lead would be overturned.[15]

Candidates

The 2010 gubernatorial election saw an exceptionally large field of candidates seeking endorsement from each party's respective convention. For the DFL and the Independence Party, this exended into a protracted primary fight that went on into August. The general election saw participation from the state's three major parties and four of the minor political parties.

General election

  • Tom Emmer (R) - State Representative; and Annette Meeks, Metropolitan Council Member[16]
  • Mark Dayton (DFL) - Former United States Senator; and Yvonne Prettner Solon, Minnesota State Senator[17][18]
  • Tom Horner (IP) - Public affairs consultant; and Jim Mulder[19][20]
  • Ken Pentel (EDP) and Erin Wallace[19]
  • Farheen Hakeem (G) and Dan Dittman[19]
  • Chris Wright (GR) and Edwin Engelmann[19]
  • Linda Eno (Resource Party) and Howard Hanson[19]

Defeated in primary

Dropped out

Declined

Endorsement process

Republican Party

After incumbent Governor Tim Pawlenty announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term,[54] the field was open for Republicans to seek their party's endorsement. At the Minnesota GOP's off-year state convention in October 2009, former Representative Marty Seifert took first place in a straw poll with 37% of the vote. Representative Tom Emmer took second place with 23%, Patricia Anderson had 14%, and the rest of the participating candidates received less than 10% each.[36][63]

Seifert took another victory during the February 2, 2010 precinct caucuses when he won a statewide straw poll of caucus attendees. Seifert garnered 50% of the vote, followed by Representative Tom Emmer with 39%. None of the other candidates got beyond single digits.[64] Delegates to the state convention, however, were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than otherwise indicated by the initial straw poll. Although both camps claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention, the outcome of the endorsement was nothing certain, and would end up being decided on the convention floor.[65]

On April 30, 2010, Tom Emmer won the endorsement of Republican delegates over Marty Seifert at the party's state convention in Minneapolis. After Emmer won 56% of the vote on the second ballot, Seifert withdrew from the race and threw his support behind Emmer's campaign. Emmer is running on a ticket with Metropolitan Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor.[66]

Emmer won the August 10, 2010 primary, earning a spot on the November ballot.[67]

Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party

The list of candidates seeking the DFL's nomination was long going into the February 2 caucuses, with over 11 candidates having submitted their names for the candidate preference ballot. Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton notably declined to be included on the ballot. Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak won the straw poll with 21.8% of the vote, with State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher receiving 20.1%, and "uncommitted" receiving 14.7%. Each of the other candidates received single-digit support.[68][69]

Former State Senator Steve Kelley dropped out of the race shortly after the caucuses due to disappointing results from the straw poll. State Senator Tom Bakk also dropped out on March 20, 2010, after announcing at the St. Louis County Convention that his chances of winning were slim.

On April 24, 2010, the DFL State Convention was held in Duluth. After the first ballot, State Senator John Marty withdrew from the race after seeing lower than expected support, and State Representative Tom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot, choosing to endorse Kelliher. State Representative Paul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot, and before the results to the sixth ballot were announced, Rybak withdrew as well and endorsed Kelliher.[70] Kelliher was subsequently endorsed by the convention. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, who had not sought the DFL endorsement but was planning to run in the primary, dropped out two days later. That left Kelliher facing Mark Dayton and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza in the August primary.

Shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative term, all three major DFL candidates had announced their choices for lieutenant governor. On May 21, 2010, Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate. Gunyou is Minnetonka City Manager and was state finance commissioner in Republican Governor Arne Carlson's administration.[28] On May 24, 2010, Dayton announced that Yvonne Prettner Solon would be his running mate. Solon is a psychologist and three-term state senator.[17] On May 27, 2010, Entenza announced that Robyne Robinson would be his running mate. Robinson is a small business owner and former TV anchor.[26]

Dayton won a narrow victory over Kelliher in the August 10, 2010, primary, earning the right to serve as his party's nominee.[2] He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21, 2010.[71]

Independence Party

On Sunday, May 9, 2010, Tom Horner won the endorsement of the Independence Party for governor. His main opponent, Rob Hahn, said he would contest the primary.[72]

Horner won the August 10 primary, defeating Rob Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot.[67]

Primary results

Democratic

At 11:50 p.m. on primary night, Dayton took the lead from Kelliher, who had held an ever-shrinking lead since the polls closed.

Democratic primary results[73]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage
Democratic Mark Dayton 182,738 41.3%
Democratic Margaret Anderson Kelliher 175,767 39.8%
Democratic Matt Entenza 80,509 18.2%
Democratic Peter Idusogie 3,123 0.7%
Totals 442,137 100%

Republican

Republican primary results[73]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage
Republican Tom Emmer 107,558 82.5%
Republican Bob Carney Jr. 9,856 7.6%
Republican Leslie Davis 8,598 6.6%
Republican Ole Savior 4,396 3.4%
Totals 130,408 100%

Independence

Independence Party primary results[74]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage
Independence Tom Horner 11,380 64.2%
Independence Rob Hahn 2,538 14.3%
Independence John T. Uldrich 1,766 10.0%
Independence Phile Ratté 1,215 7.0%
Independence Rahn V. Workcuff 815 4.5%
Totals 17,714 100%

Polling

General election

Poll source Dates administered Tom Emmer (R) Mark Dayton (DFL) Tom Horner (I) Undecided Sampling error
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2010 40% 43% 15% 3% 2.2%
SurveyUSA October 24–27, 2010 38% 39% 13% 9% 4%
Minnesota Public Radio October 21–25, 2010 29% 41% 11% 20% 3.6%
St. Cloud State University October 10–21, 2010 30% 40% 19% 10% 5.0%
Minnesota Poll October 18–21, 2010 34% 41% 13% 12% 3.9%
Rasmussen Reports October 20, 2010 41% 44% 10% 5% 4.0%
Survey USA October 11–13, 2010 37% 42% 14% 7% 3.7%
Rasmussen Reports October 6, 2010 38% 40% 15% 7% 4%
Humphrey Institute/MPR September 22–26, 2010 27% 38% 16% 19% 3.6%
Minnesota Poll September 20–23, 2010 30% 39% 18% 13% 4.1%
Rasmussen Reports September 22, 2010 42% 41% 9% 2% 4%
Survey USA September 12–14, 2010 36% 38% 18% 4% 3.9%
Humphrey Institute/MPR August 31, 2010 34% 34% 13% 19% 3.6 - 5.3%
Rasmussen Reports August 12, 2010 36% 45% 10% 10% 4.0%
Survey USA August 2–4, 2010 32% 46% 9% 13% 2.7%
Minnesota Poll July 26–29, 2010 30% 40% 13% 17% 4.3%
Rasmussen Reports July 19, 2010 36% 40% 10% 14% 4.5%
Survey USA June 14–16, 2010 35% 38% 12% 15% 2.5%
Decision Resources, Ltd. May 28 - June 2, 2010 28% 40% 18% 14% 3.5%
Rasmussen Reports May 24, 2010 37% 35% 12% 16% 4.5%
Humphrey Institute/MPR May 13–16, 2010 31% 35% 9% 25% 5.8%
Survey USA May 3–5, 2010 42% 34% 9% 15% 4.1%
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 35% 38% 7% 20% 3%

Primary election

DFL

Poll source Dates administered Mark Dayton Matt Entenza Margaret Anderson Kelliher Undecided Sampling error
Survey USA August 2–4, 2010 43% 22% 27% 8% 4.5%
Minnesota Poll July 26–29, 2010 40% 17% 30% 13% 7.3%
Survey USA June 14–16, 2010 39% 22% 26% 11% 4.5%
Humphrey Institute / MPR May 13–16, 2010 38% 6% 28% 28% 8.75%

Results

2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota[14]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
DFL Mark Dayton 919,232 43.63% -2.07%
Republican Tom Emmer 910,462 43.21% -3.49%
Independence Tom Horner 251,487 11.94% +5.54%
Grassroots Chris Wright 7,516 0.36% n/a
Green Farheen Hakeem 6,188 0.29% -0.21%
Ecology Democracy Ken Pentel 6,180 0.29% n/a
Resource Party Linda Eno 4,092 0.19% n/a
Write-ins 1,864 0.09%
Total votes 2,106,979 100%
DFL gain from Republican

Ballot recount

Olmsted County, Minnesota officials recounting votes on November 29, 2010

The Gubernatorial Election in Minnesota was too close to call on November 2, 2010. An automatic ballot recount occurred, as Mark Dayton's lead over Tom Emmer was less than one half of one percent. This recount was carried out by the Minnesota Secretary of State, Mark Ritchie, as part of a State Canvassing Board, which consists of the secretary of state, two justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court, and two judges of a Minnesota district court.[75]

References

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  69. ^ Post your comment: Title (Optional) Your comments: (2010-02-03). "Caucus night: Seifert wins GOP poll, DFLers vote Rybak". StarTribune.com. http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/83411252.html. Retrieved 2010-05-04. 
  70. ^ Steve Perry (2010-02-03). "Ballot by ballot results". StarTribune.com. http://politicsinminnesota.com/blog/2010/04/ballot-by-ballot-results/. Retrieved 2010-05-04. 
  71. ^ "DFL formally endorses Dayton; candidate gives them red meat before annual barbecue". MinnPost. http://www.minnpost.com/politicalagenda/2010/08/21/20781/dfl_formally_endorses_dayton_candidate_gives_them_red_meat_before_annual_barbecue. Retrieved 2010-11-04. 
  72. ^ Mannix, Andy (2010-05-09). "Tom Horner wins IP endorsement". Blogs.citypages.com. http://blogs.citypages.com/blotter/2010/05/tom_horner_wins.php. Retrieved 2010-11-04. 
  73. ^ a b "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Governor/2010/MN. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  74. ^ "Election Reporting". Electionresults.sos.state.mn.us. 2010-08-10. http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20100810/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&Races=0331. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  75. ^ http://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/hrd/pubs/ss/ssrecount.htm Minnesota House of Representatives, Retrieved, November 3rd, 2010.

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v · d · eNotable third party performances in United States elections (At least 5% of the vote)
Presidential (Since 1832)
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Gubernatorial (Since 1990)
Alaska 1990 · Connecticut 1990 · Kansas 1990 · Maine 1990 · New York 1990 · Oklahoma 1990 · Oregon 1990 · Utah 1992 · West Virginia 1992 · Alaska 1994 · Connecticut 1994 · Hawaii 1994 · Maine 1994 · New Mexico 1994 · Oklahoma 1994 · Pennsylvania 1994 · Rhode Island 1994 · Vermont 1994 · Alaska 1998 · Maine 1998 · Minnesota 1998 · New York 1998 · Pennsylvania 1998 · Rhode Island 1998 · Kentucky 1999 · New Hampshire 2000 · Vermont 2000 · Arizona 2002 · California 2002 · Maine 2002 · Minnesota 2002 · New Mexico 2002 · New York 2002 · Oklahoma 2002 · Wisconsin 2002 · Alaska 2006 · Illinois 2006 · Maine 2006 · Massachusetts 2006 · Minnesota 2006 · Texas 2006 · Louisiana 2007 · Vermont 2008 · New Jersey 2009 · Colorado 2010 · Idaho 2010 · Maine 2010 · Massachusetts 2010 · Minnesota 2010 · Rhode Island 2010 · Wyoming 2010
Portal:Politics - Third party (United States) - Third party officeholders in the United States - Third party United States House of Representatives

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