United States Senate election in Nevada, 2010

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2010
United States Senate election in Nevada, 2010
Nevada
2004 ←
 November 2, 2010
 → 2016
  Harry Reid official portrait 2009 crop.jpg Sharron Angle in 2010.jpg
Nominee Harry Reid Sharron Angle
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 362,785 321,361
Percentage 50.3% 44.6%

Nevada Senatorial Election Results by County, 2010.svg
County results
U.S. Senator before election

Harry Reid
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Harry Reid
Democratic
Elections in Nevada
Nevadastateseal.png

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The 2010 United States Senate election in Nevada took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator and Majority Leader Harry Reid won re-election to a fifth term.[1]

Contents

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary took place on June 8, 2010. Reid won by a large margin over a field of political unknowns.

Candidates

  • Harry Reid
  • Alex Miller
  • Eduardo Hamilton
  • Carlo Poliak[2]

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Harry Reid Barbara Buckley
Mellman Group June 17–29, 2008 51% 20%

Results

Democratic primary results [3]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage
Democratic Harry Reid (incumbent) 87,401 75.3%
Democratic None of these 12,341 10.6%
Democratic Alex Miller 9,717 8.4%
Democratic Eduardo Hamilton 4,645 4.0%
Democratic Carlo Poliak 1,938 1.7%
Totals 116,042 100%

Republican primary

The Republican primary also took place on Tuesday, June 8, 2010.

Candidates

  • Sharron Angle, former Assemblywoman[4]
  • John Chachas, businessman[5]
  • Chad Christensen, state Assemblyman[6]
  • Greg Dagani, former member of the Nevada Board of Education[7]
  • Chuck Flume, businessman[5]
  • Sue Lowden, former State Senator[5]
  • Mark Noonan, Navy veteran[8]
  • Bill Parson, Marine veteran and businessman[9]
  • Danny Tarkanian, real estate owner[5]

Endorsements

Lowden

Tarkanian

Angle

Polling

Includes current candidates who have polled at least 2% in at least one poll.

Poll source Dates administered Tarkanian Lowden Angle
Mason Dixon/LVJR June 1–3, 2010 24% 23% 32%
Suffolk University June 2, 2010 26% 24% 33%
Research 2000 May 31-June 2, 2010 24% 25% 34%
Mason Dixon/LVJR May 28, 2010 23% 30% 29%
Mason Dixon/LVJR May 13, 2010 22% 30% 25%
Research 2000 April 26–28, 2010 28% 38% 13%
Mason Dixon/LVJR April 11, 2010 27% 45% 5%
Mason Dixon/LVJR February 24, 2010 29% 47% 8%
Mason Dixon/LVJR January 7, 2010 28% 26% 13%
Mason Dixon/LVJR December, 2009 24% 25% 13%
Mason Dixon/LVJR October 8, 2009 21% 23% 9%
Mason Dixon/LVJR August 21, 2009 33% 14% 5%

Results

Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage
Republican Sharron Angle 70,452 40.1%
Republican Sue Lowden 45,890 26.1%
Republican Danny Tarkanian 40,936 23.3%
Republican John Chachas 6,926 3.9%
Republican Chad Christensen 4,806 2.7%
Republican None of these 3,091 1.8%
Republican Bill Parson 1,484 0.8%
Republican Gary Bernstein 698 0.4%
Republican Garn Mabey 462 0.3%
Republican Cecilia Stern 355 0.2%
Republican Brian Nadell 235 0.1%
Republican Terry Suominen 224 0.1%
Republican Gary Marinch 179 0.1%
Totals 175,738 100%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

In January 2009, the GOP began running an advertisement attacking Reid for his support of the legislation and President Barack Obama's proposed stimulus plan.[43] Since becoming Minority Leader (in 2004), his approval ratings have dropped below 50%.[citation needed] A November 2007 poll showed Reid's approval rating at 39%, with 49% of voters disapproving.[44]

After the primaries, the first poll showed Angle leading by a double-digit margin. CQ Politics changed their analysis of the race from leaning Republican to a toss-up because of Angle's sharply conservative views and tendency to commit verbal gaffes; however, CQ added that if the voters treat the election as a referendum on Reid, then Angle will likely win.[45]

In 2009, Reid had been endorsed by some prominent Nevada Republicans.[46] Immediately after the primary, the Republican mayor of Reno, Bob Cashell, who had backed Lowden in the Republican primary, endorsed Reid for the general election, calling Angle an "ultra-right winger."[47][48] Other Republicans expressed doubt about supporting Angle, citing her reputation for ideological rigidity from her years in the state legislature.[49]

One of the first general election ads attacked Angle for her stance on Social Security and Medicare.[50] In response, Angle explained that "the government must continue to keep its contract with seniors, who entered into the system on good faith and now are depending on that contract." In response to accusations that she was not mainstream enough for Nevada voters, Angle explained on a KXNT radio show that she was "more mainstream than the fellow that said tourists stink, this war is lost, and light-skinned no-Negro dialect", in reference to comments that had been made by Senator Reid.[51]

In September, Tibi Ellis, the chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Hispanic Caucus, who had been a spokesperson for Angle, criticized an Angle ad related to immigration. Ellis said, "I condemned this type of propaganda, no matter who is running them, where they blame Mexicans as the only problem and where they attack them as the only source of illegal immigration."[52]

Angle has been endorsed by Nevada's largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal.[53] Reid has the endorsement from Nevada's second largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Sun.[54] and the largest newspaper outside of Las Vegas, the Reno Gazette-Journal.[55]

On October 7, 2010, Republican State Senator and Minority Leader William Raggio endorsed Reid.[56][57] Dema Guinn, the widow of the late Republican Nevada Governor Kenny Guinn, endorsed Reid on October 8.[58]

Debate

Angle and Reid only agreed to one debate, in which no other candidate would participate. It was held on October 14th.[59] Junior Senator John Ensign played Reid during one day of debate preparation at the Trump Plaza in Las Vegas for Angle.[60]

Predictions

History

Reid was initially considered vulnerable, with the non-partisan Cook Political Report rating the election as a tossup[61] and the Rothenberg Political Report rating the state as tossup.[62] A June 9, 2010, Rasmussen Reports post-primary poll showed Angle leading incumbent Senator Harry Reid by a margin of 50% to 39%.[63] However, a July 2010 poll showed Senator Reid leading Angle by 7 points, following nationwide attention to some of Angle's positions,[64] as well as the endorsement of Reid by prominent Republicans. The change of margin, 18% in less than a month, is the largest in Senate elections history.[64] On July 28, 2010, Rasmussen Reports moved the race from tossup to leans Democratic.[65] Later, it moved back to tossup.

Table

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Toss up[66] October 19, 2010
Rothenberg Toss up[67] October 15, 2010
RealClearPolitics Toss up[68] October 19, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Leans R[69] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics Toss up[70] October 19, 2010
Rasmussen Reports Toss up[71] October 16, 2010

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Sharron Angle (R) Harry Reid (D)
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research October 30, 2010 48% 45%
Mason-Dixon October 25-27, 2010 49% 45%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research October 20-26, 2010 49% 45%
Rasmussen Reports October 25, 2010 49% 45%
Rasmussen Reports October 17, 2010 50% 47%
Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon October 14, 2010 47% 45%
Rasmussen Reports October 11, 2010 49% 48%
Fox News/POR-Rasmussen October 9, 2010 49% 47%
Public Policy Polling October 7-9, 2010 45% 47%
Rasmussen Reports October 5, 2010 50% 46%
Magellan Strategies October 4, 2010 48% 43%
FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research October 2, 2010 49% 46%
Rasmussen Reports September 28, 2010 47% 48%
Public Opinion Strategies September 21-23, 2010 40% 45%
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon September 20-22, 2010 43% 43%
FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research September 18, 2010 46% 45%
CNN/Time Magazine September 10-14, 2010 42% 41%
Rasmussen Reports September 13, 2010 48% 48%
FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research September 11, 2010 45% 44%
Mason-Dixon September 7-9, 2010 44% 46%
Rasmussen Reports September 1, 2010 45% 45%
Mason-Dixon August 23-25, 2010 44% 45%
Rasmussen Reports August 16, 2010 47% 47%
Mason-Dixon August 9-11, 2010 44% 46%
Reuters/Iposos August 3, 2010 44% 48%
Mason-Dixon July 28-30, 2010 42% 43%
Rasmussen Reports July 27, 2010 43% 45%
Public Policy Polling July 16-18, 2010 46% 48%
Mason-Dixon July 12-14, 2010 37% 44%
Rasmussen Reports July 12, 2010 46% 43%
Rasmussen Reports June 22, 2010 48% 41%
Rasmussen Reports June 9, 2010 50% 39%
Mason Dixon/LVJR June 1-3, 2010 44% 41%
Research 2000 May 31 - June 2, 2010 37% 42%
Mason Dixon/LVJR May 28, 2010 39% 42%
Research 2000 April 26-28, 2010 44% 41%
Rasmussen Reports April 27, 2010 48% 40%
Rasmussen Reports March 31, 2010 51% 40%
Rasmussen Reports March 3, 2010 47% 43%
Rasmussen Reports February 3, 2010 44% 40%
Rasmussen Reports January 11, 2010 44% 40%
Mason Dixon January 7, 2010 45% 40%
Rasmussen Reports December 9, 2009 47% 43%

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Sharron Angle (R) $27,797,915 $27,505,917 $291,999 $635,737
Harry Reid (D) $19,185,317 $22,325,360 $176,309 $419,093
Source: Federal Election Commission[72]

Results

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2010[73][74][75]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Harry Reid (incumbent) 362,785 50.29% -10.84%
Republican Sharron Angle 321,361 44.55% +9.45%
None of the above - 16,174 2.25% +0.65%
Tea Party Scott Ashjian 5,811 0.81% N/A
Independent Michael L. Haines 4,261 0.59% N/A
Independent American Timothy Fasano 3,185 0.44% N/A
Independent Jesse Holland 3,175 0.44% N/A
Independent Jeffery C. Reeves 2,510 0.35% N/A
Independent Wil Stand 2,119 0.29% N/A
Majority 41,424 5.74%
Total votes 721,381 100% -11.14%
Democratic hold Swing

References

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  75. ^ "GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". www.lvrj.com. November 4, 2010. 

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Governors
(Polling)

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Mayors

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States

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