Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2010

The Pennsylvania gubernatorial election of 2010 will be held on November 2, 2010, and will include the races for the Governor of Pennsylvania and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania. The winning candidates will serve a four year term from 2011 to 2015.

The incumbent Governor, Ed Rendell (D), will be prohibited from seeking a third term under Pennsylvania's existing term limit laws (state law limits Pennsylvania governors to two consecutive 4-year terms). Catherine Baker Knoll (D), the current Lieutenant Governor, will be 80 years old at the time of the election and it is considered unlikely that she will challenge for the state's top post. This opens the possibility of wide open primaries in both major political parties.

Political trends

Pennsylvania is considered a swing state in which neither political party dominates. Although the state has voted Democratic for 8 of the past 12 presidential elections, its Congressional delegation has been majority Republican for most of the late 20th and first years of the 21st century and Republicans have controlled the state legislature for much of that time.

The 2006 election saw Bob Casey, Jr. as the first Democrat elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate since Joseph S. Clark narrowly won reelection in 1962. Also in the 2006 election, the Republican Party retained control of the Pennsylvania State Senate (29 Republican seats and 21 Democrat seats). The Democratic Party won control of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives from the Republicans by a single seat majority (102 to 101) in 2006; however due to political infighting among Democratic legislators, a moderate Republican was elected Speaker of the House.

In the 2000 Presidential election, former Vice President Al Gore won the state 51%-47% over then-Texas Governor George W. Bush. In 2004, in an even closer election, Senator John Kerry carried the state 51%-49% over Bush. The state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since choosing George H.W. Bush over Michael Dukakis 51%-48% in 1988.

The counties of Philadelphia and Allegheny are Democratic strongholds (Philadelphia: 75% Democrat, Allegheny: 60% Democrat), while the central and northern parts of the state, collectively referred to as the "the T," are generally conservative and vote Republican.

The populous counties of the Philadelphia suburbs; Chester, Montgomery, Delaware, and Bucks have been traditionally Republican strongholds. In the past several elections however, many of these suburban areas have been trending more Democratic.

The statewide party registration as of 2006 is: [ [http://www.dos.state.pa.us/elections/lib/elections/055_voter_registration_statistics/2006genelectionvoterregistotalscounty_unofficial.pdf 2006 General Election] ]

Potential candidates

No one has formally declared their candidacy for governor, and the list of potential candidates is highly speculative at this point; however, several names have begun to surface among political pundits and writers: [ [http://www.pittsburgpost-gazette.com/pg/06316/737687-178.stm Political pundits already pondering the next governor race ] ]

Democrats

** Josh Shapiro - a young legislator from Montgomery County. Headed the bi-partisan movement to delegate fellow Philadelphia area Rep. Dennis M. O'Brien as Speaker and is currently Deputy Speaker and a Chair of the Committee on Reform. Former Chief of Staff to Rep. Joe Hoeffel, Montgomery County. fact|date=May 2008

** Mark Singel - a two term Lt. Governor under Bob Casey, Sr. who lost the 1994 gubernatorial election to Tom Ridge. fact|date=May 2008

** Dan Onorato - the current Chief Executive of Allegheny County. fact|date=May 2008

** Jack Wagner - the current Auditor General of Pennsylvania. fact|date=May 2008

** Barbara Hafer - Former State Treasurer and Auditor General of Pennsylvania. fact|date=May 2008

** Don Cunningham - current Chief Executive of Lehigh County. fact|date=May 2008

** Tom Knox - Philadelphia businessman and Philadelphia Mayoral candidate (2nd place in primary) [ [http://www.philly.com/inquirer/breaking/news_breaking/20071123_Knox_considersa_run_for_governor.html] ]

** Catherine Baker Knoll - Current Lt. Governor is veteran of several successful state-wide races, has high name ID, might become Governor if Ed Rendell leaves office to take position in a possible Democratic White House in 2008. [ [http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/mostread/s_549537.html Gov. Knoll? - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review ] ]

** Robert J. Mellow - Senior senator of the 22nd PA Senate District

Republican

** Tom Corbett - The current Attorney General of Pennsylvania.

** Melissa Hart - Former U.S. Congresswoman for the Fourth Congressional district.

** Pat Meehan - Current U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. A former counselor of both Senator Arlen Specter and Senator Rick Santorum, Meehan has been an active and visible U.S. Attorney in Philadelphia. He is well known in eastern Pennsylvania as being tough on crime and health care fraud. He and his office have successfully prosecuted several high profile Philadelphia city officials for corruption.

** Dennis M. O'Brien - Current Speaker of the State House Speaker O'Brien is considered a strong candidate for the State's top post. His reform of the State House and ouster of the powerful John Perzel put him in the good graces of many displeased with the direction of the Republican Party. His compassionate record, fighting for those with Autism and other health care related issues make him a popular choice of Democrats as well.

** John M. Perzel - Former Speaker of the State House (2003-2007) and power player in Pennsylvania GOP politics. Perzel lost the speakership in January 2007 after Democrats gained control of the chamber.

** John Pippy - A Pennsylvania State Senator from Moon Township, Pennsylvania.

** Rick Santorum - Although the former U.S. Senator has made no statements concerning the 2010 election, well known Pennsylvania political analyst Charlie Gerow has stated, "Like him or not, he's a very talented guy. If he runs for governor, he'd be formidable."

**Mark S. Schweiker - Former Governor of Pennsylvania (2001-2003) after the resignation of Tom Ridge to serve as Secretary of Homeland Security. Schweiker did not seek re-election in 2002, but would be a strong candidate in 2010.

** Bill Scranton - the former Lt. Governor, 1986 gubinatorial nominee, and son of Governor William W. Scranton briefly ran for Governor in 2006 and is believed to still harbor political aspirations.

** Lynn Swann - Thomas Baldino, a political science professor at Wilkes College has stated, "I think he's established some credibility as a candidate with the public and Republican Party leaders. He will have earned at least some consideration for another go" [http://www.pittsburgpost-gazette.com/pg/06316/737687-178.stm] . However in April 2007 Swann announced that he was "collecting information" concerning a run for Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district in 2008 [http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07102/777446-366.stm] indicating that he may no longer be interested in the governorship.

** Pat Toomey - Former U.S. Congressman who unsuccessfully challenged Senator Arlen Specter in the primary election in 2004.

Libertarian

** Donald Ernsberger - Former Chief of Staff to U.S. Representative Dana Rohrbacker and Co-founder of the Libertarian Party. In a three way race for U.S. Congress Don received 10% in the official tally, but did less well running a Statewide Campaign.

** Ken Krawchuk - Independent Business man and previous Libertarian Gubernatorial Candidate, Ken polled 2% Statewide last time he ran.

** Russ Diamond - PA Clean Sweep Activist Russ Diamond was offered the Libertarian Nomination in 2006, but declined, preferring to run as an Independent. Neither Russ nor the nominated Libertarian Candidate were able to get on the ballot, many Libertarian Activists believe that had Russ accepted the nomination they would have been able to collect the 130,000 signatures required (Russ on his own collected 38,000 signatures). In 2008 Russ attempted to unseat a Republican Incumbent State Representative in a Primary and failed.

References