Maine gubernatorial election, 2010

Maine gubernatorial election, 2010
Maine gubernatorial election, 2010
Maine
2006 ←
 November 2, 2010
 → 2014
  PaulLePage.jpg Eliot Cutler.jpg
Nominee Paul LePage Eliot Cutler
Party Republican Independent
Popular vote 216,761 206,339
Percentage 38.33% 36.49%
  Replace this image female.svg Shawn-moody-for-governor.jpg
Nominee Libby Mitchell Shawn Moody
Party Democratic Independent
Popular vote 108,137 28,632
Percentage 19.12% 5.06%

Mainegovelection2010.png
County results
  Counties won by LePage
  Counties won by Cutler
Governor before election

John Baldacci
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Paul LePage
Republican
Elections in Maine
Seal of Maine.svg

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The 2010 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Baldacci was term-limited and unable to seek re-election. Primary elections took place on June 8, 2010. The candidates who appeared on the November ballot were (in alphabetical order by last name): Eliot Cutler (Independent), Paul LePage (Republican), Libby Mitchell (Democrat), Shawn Moody (Independent), and Kevin Scott (Independent).[1]

With 94% of precincts reporting on the day after the election, the Bangor Daily News declared LePage the winner, carrying 38.1% of the votes.[2] Cutler was in second place with 36.7% of the votes (less than 7,500 votes behind LePage), while Mitchell was a distant third with 19%.[2] Moody and Scott had 5% and 1%, respectively.[2] Two days after the election, with 99% of precincts reporting, LePage's lead over Cutler had widened to more than 10,000 votes.[3]

Contents

Democratic primary

Candidates

[4]

On ballot

Write-in

Withdrawn

  • Dawn Hill, State Representative.[15][16] Hill withdrew from the race on January 1, 2010, citing the crowded field of candidates.[17]
  • John G. Richardson, former Commissioner of Economic and Community Development and former Speaker of the House.[5][18] Richardson withdrew from the race on April 26 amid allegations that some of his campaign workers had not followed proper procedures for collecting donations to qualify him for Maine Clean Election funding.[19] The primary ballots had already been printed before Richardson withdrew from the race, so Richardson's name appeared on the ballot even though he was no longer a candidate.[20]
  • Peter Truman (also known as Peter Throumoulos), former state representative and convicted forger.[21] Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.

Declined

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Mitchell Rowe Scarcelli McGowan Undecided
Pan Atlantic SMS Group May 21–29, 2010 13.3% 11.7% 7.0% 6.3% 61.7%

Results

Democratic primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage
Democratic Elizabeth "Libby" Mitchell 42,328 34.4%
Democratic G. Steven Rowe 27,923 22.7%
Democratic Rosa Scarcelli 26,444 21.5%
Democratic Patrick K. McGowan 24,392 19.8%
Democratic John Richardson 1,604 1.3%
Democratic Write-in 236 0.3%
Totals 122,927 100%

At 11:32 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Libby Mitchell the winner of the Democratic primary.[25]

Republican primary

Candidates

[4]

On ballot

Declined

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Otten LePage Mills Abbott Beardsley Poliquin Jacobson Undecided
MECPO [46] May 22-June 2, 2010 17.0% 10.7% 22.1% 13.9% 5.9% 4.9% 1.4% 24.0%
Pan Atlantic SMS Group May 21–29, 2010 17.0% 10.3% 8.4% 8.3% 3.6% 3.3% 2.0% 47.0%

Results

Republican primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage
Republican Paul LePage 49,126 37.4%
Republican Les Otten 22,945 17.4%
Republican Peter Mills 19,271 14.7%
Republican Steve Abbott 17,209 13.1%
Republican William "Bill" Beardsley 12,061 9.2%
Republican Bruce Poliquin 6,471 4.9%
Republican Matt Jacobson 4,324 3.3%
Totals 131,407 100%

At 11:19 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Paul LePage the winner of the GOP primary.[47]

Independents

Candidates on the ballot

Write-in candidates

  • John Jenkins, former State Senator, former Mayor of both Auburn and Lewiston, and a 2002 gubernatorial candidate.[55] Jenkins, who won his most recent mayoral campaign by write-in, declared he would run for Governor of Maine if 5,000 people followed his Facebook fan page[56] within 45 days.
  • Beverly Cooper-Pete.[57] Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures,[50] but continued her campaign as a write-in candidate.[58]

Disqualified candidates

  • Alex Hammer, business owner and self-published author.[5][59] Did not appear on the ballot due to not meeting the deadline for turning in petition signatures. Hammer attempted to turn in some of the signatures electronically, but the Secretary of State ruled that such methods were not allowed. Hammer filed suit to appear on the ballot in Penobscot County Superior Court on June 28, 2010.[60][61] On September 28, 2010, the judge upheld the Secretary of State's decision.[62]

Withdrawn

  • Samme Bailey.[5][63] Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.[50]
  • Augustus Edgerton.[5] Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.[50]
  • Michael Heath, former leader of the Christian Civic League of Maine (now known as the Maine Family Policy Council).[64] Withdrew from the race due to lack of petition signatures.[65]
  • John Whitcomb.[5] Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.[50]

Maine Green Independent Party

The Maine Greens did not have a gubernatorial candidate on the ballot, as no candidate collected required number of signatures.[4]

Withdrawn

  • Lynne Williams, attorney and former state chair of the Maine Green Independent Party.[66][67] On March 15, 2010, Lynne Williams announced her withdrawal from the campaign, citing a lack of clean elections funds and qualifying signatures.[68]
  • Patrick Quinlan, political activist, author, and lone legislative aide of Maine Green Independent Party caucus in state House of Representatives for 2004 and 2005; former campaign manager and consultant for Green state representative John Eder[5]

General election

Results

[3]

2010 Gubernatorial Election, Maine
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Paul LePage 216,761 38.33%
Independent Eliot Cutler 206,339 36.49%
Democratic Libby Mitchell 108,137 19.12%
Independent Shawn Moody 28,632 5.06%
Independent Kevin Scott 5,673 1.00%
Majority 10,425
Turnout 565,542
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Toss up[69] October 29, 2010
The Rothenberg Political Report Toss up/Tilt Republican[70] October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics Leans Republican[71] October 22, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Leans Republican[72] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics Leans Democrat[73] October 29, 2010
Rasmussen Reports Solid Republican[74] October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Paul LePage (R) Libby Mitchell (D) Eliot Cutler (I) Shawn Moody (I) Kevin Scott (I) Undecided
MPRC / Down East Magazine October 28–30, 2010 546 ± 4.19% 39% 24% 29% 4% 1% 2%
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media October 27–28, 2010 621 ± 4% 40% 21% 21% 4% 1% 11%
Pan Atlantic SMS October 25–28, 2010 400 ± 4.9% 38.6% 21.8% 30.6% 2.8% 1.1% 7.3%
Public Policy Polling October 26–28, 2010 1,812 ± 2.3% 40% 24% 28% 4% 1% 2%
Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 40% 26% 26% - - 5%
Critical Insights October 13–17, 2010 600 ± 4% 32% 20% 19% 5% 1% 21%
Pan Atlantic SMS October 11–15, 2010 501 ± 4.4% 32.9% 28.0% 14.0% 4.6% 0.4% 20.2%
Rasmussen Reports October 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 32% 21% * * 6%
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media October 10–11, 2010 605 ± 4% 32% 26% 11% 5 1 26%
Pine Tree Politics / Maine Center for Public Opinion October 4–7, 2010 679 ± 3.76% 29.6% 28.7% 11.1% 4.9% 1.6% 24.1%
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media September 27, 2010 405 ± 4.9% 29% 30% 9% 5% 0% 26%
Rasmussen Reports September 20, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 45% 27% 14% * * 10%
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media September 13, 2010 603 ± 4% 38% 25% 11% 4% 1% 21%
Public Policy Polling September 2–6, 2010 1,468 ± 2.6% 43% 29% 11% 5% 1% 12%
Rasmussen Reports August 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 30% 16% * * 11%
Rasmussen Reports July 14, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 31% 15% * * 12%
Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 36% 7% * * 14%

* Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott, two Independent candidates who will appear on the ballot, were not offered as choices in the Rasmussen polls.[75]

See also

References

  1. ^ http://www.pressherald.com/home/governor/The-day-after-Governors-race-takes-shape-.html
  2. ^ a b c Miller, Kevin; Wickenheiser, Matt (3 November 2010). "BDN projects LePage to win governor's race". Bangor Daily NEws. http://new.bangordailynews.com/2010/11/03/politics/bdn-projects-lepage-wins-governors-race/. Retrieved 3 November 2010. 
  3. ^ a b "Campaign 2010 - Maine Election Results". Bangor Daily News. http://maineelections.bangordailynews.com/. Retrieved 5 November 2010. 
  4. ^ a b c "Falling short on signatures, Williams exits | The Morning Sentinel, Waterville, ME". Onlinesentinel.com. http://www.onlinesentinel.com/news/falling-short-on-signatures-williams-exits_2010-03-15.html. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  5. ^ a b c d e f g Kevin Miller. "9 hopefuls for top job in Maine". Bangor Daily News. http://www.bangordailynews.com/detail/109661.html. 
  6. ^ Press, Associated (5 January 2010). "McGowan joins Maine gubernatorial field". Portland Press Herald. http://updates.pressherald.mainetoday.com/updates/mcgowan-joins-maine-gubernatorial-field. Retrieved 5 January 2010. "Former state Conservation Commissioner Patrick McGowan formally announced his candidacy today, making him the seventh Democrat seeking his party's nomination in June." 
  7. ^ Cover, Susan (2009-08-11). "Elizabeth Mitchell files for governor's race". Portland Press Herald. http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=276012&ac=PHnws. Retrieved 12 August 2009. 
  8. ^ Gagnon, Matthew (8 December 2008). "Steve Rowe Running For Governor". Pine Tree Politics. http://www.pinetreepolitics.com/?p=229. Retrieved 12 August 2009. 
  9. ^ Rowe For Governor (official candidate web site)
  10. ^ Wickenheiser, Matt (20 July 2009). "Businesswoman launches Blaine House bid". Portland Press Herald. http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/newsupdate.php?updates/businesswoman-launches-blaine-house-bid. Retrieved 12 August 2009. 
  11. ^ Rosa Scarcelli, Democratic Candidate for Governor of Maine, 2010 (official candidate web site)
  12. ^ Williams, Cindy (22 July 2009). "Former Mayor Donna Dion Announced Run For Governor". WCSH. http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=107343. Retrieved 12 August 2009. 
  13. ^ Donna Dion For Governor 2010 (official candidate web site)
  14. ^ Hoey, Dennis (21 March 2010). "Dione will run for governor as a write-in candidate". Portland Press Herald. http://www.pressherald.com/news/Dion-will-run-for-governor-as-a-write-in-candidate.html. Retrieved 22 March 2010. 
  15. ^ O'Bryan, Heather (1 July 2009). "House Member Announces Run For Governor". WCSH. http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=106570&catid=2. Retrieved 12 August 2009. 
  16. ^ dawnhillforgovernor.com (official candidate web site)
  17. ^ "Rep. Hill drops out of Maine gov. race" - SeacoastOnline.com
  18. ^ David Hench (16 November 2009). "Richardson to announce for governor". Portland Press Herald. http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=296507&ac=PHnws. 
  19. ^ Richardson withdrawing from governor's race Portland Press Herald, April 26, 2010
  20. ^ Cover, Susan (7 June 2010). "Governor's Race: Independents can vote Tuesday, but they need to know the rules". Portland Press Herald. http://www.pressherald.com/news/independents-can-vote-tuesday-but-they-need-to-know-the-rules-_2010-06-07.html. Retrieved 7 June 2010. "Democrat John Richardson pulled out in April after the ethics commission found problems with his application for Clean Election funds. But it was too late for the ballots, which had already gone to the printers." 
  21. ^ Wickenheiser, Matt (10 September 2009). "Man once jailed for forgery seeks state office". Portland Press Herald. http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=282192&ac=PHnws. Retrieved 10 September 2009. "A former state representative who was jailed two years ago for forging signatures on petitions for state Clean Election funds has filed papers to run for governor. Peter Truman of Old Orchard Beach, also known as Peter Throumoulos, plans to run as a Democrat." 
  22. ^ SunJournal.com. "Auburn lawmaker decides against bid for governor". http://www.sunjournal.com/node/232596/. Retrieved 2009-09-02. 
  23. ^ Mainepolitics.net. "Allen Discusses Future". http://mainepolitics.net/content/allen-discusses-election-future. Retrieved 2008-12-31. 
  24. ^ a b "Maine Governor Primary Results". Maine SOS. June 8, 2010. http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/prior10-11.htm. Retrieved August 9, 2010. 
  25. ^ "Mitchell wins Democratic Primary". WCSH 6. June 8, 2010. http://www.wcsh6.com/news/breaking/story.aspx?storyid=118763&catid=112. Retrieved June 8, 2010. 
  26. ^ PressHerald.com. "Does Abbott Have his Eye on Governors Job?". http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story_pf.php?id=240937&ac=PHnws. Retrieved 2009-02-02. 
  27. ^ "Collins aide joins Maine gov's race". Portland Press Herald. 12 January 2009. http://updates.pressherald.mainetoday.com/updates/update-collins-aide-joins-maine-govs-race. Retrieved 12 January 2009. 
  28. ^ "Former Husson president to run for governor". Portland Press Herald. 12 January 2009. http://updates.pressherald.mainetoday.com/updates/former-husson-president-to-run-for-governor. Retrieved 12 January 2009. 
  29. ^ Bill Beardsley: Governor For Maine (official candidate web site)
  30. ^ Mainepolitics.net. "Republican Announces for Governor". http://www.mainepolitics.net/content/republican-announces-governor. Retrieved 2009-02-26. 
  31. ^ Matt Jacobson For Governor (official candidate web site)
  32. ^ "Waterville mayor files to run for governor". Portland Press Herald. 23 September 2009. http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/updates/updates/waterville-mayor-files-to-run-for-governor. Retrieved 23 September 2009. 
  33. ^ Paul LePage - Gubernatorial Dark Horse?
  34. ^ Morning Sentinel, September 18, 2009
  35. ^ Paul LePage for Governor 2010 (official campaign web site)
  36. ^ Mills declares candidacy for governor
  37. ^ "Welcome to the Public Campaign Finance Page for the State of Maine". Mainecampaignfinance.com. http://www.mainecampaignfinance.com/public/report_list.asp?TYPE=CAN&ID=4501&LIMIT=&YEAR=2010&LINK=OS. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  38. ^ Peter Mills for Governor of Maine (official candidate web site)
  39. ^ Les Otten for Governor (official candidate web site)
  40. ^ "Portland, ME | Race For Governor Already Taking Shape". WCSH6.com. 2010-01-04. http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=106511&catid=2. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  41. ^ Bruce Poliquin for Maine Governor (official candidate web site)
  42. ^ "> Archives > News > Poliquin jumps to early cash lead". The Times Record. 2009-07-20. http://www.timesrecord.com/articles/2009/07/20/news/doc4a649cbac9072013796179.txt. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  43. ^ Cianchette insists he won't run for governor
  44. ^ "Kevin Raye Will Not Run For Governor". Pine Tree Politics. 2009-11-10. http://www.pinetreepolitics.com/2009/11/10/kevin-raye-will-not-run-for-governor/. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  45. ^ "Josh Tardy". Abbott for Governor. http://www.abbottforgovernor.com/josh-tardy. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  46. ^ Note: Poll paid for by Mills Campaign
  47. ^ "LePage projected to win Maine GOP primary". WCSH 6. June 8, 2010. http://www.wcsh6.com/news/breaking/story.aspx?storyid=118762&catid=112. Retrieved June 8, 2010. 
  48. ^ Christian, Ken (August 24, 2009). "Cutler To Run For Governor As Independent". WCSH. http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=108444&catid=2. Retrieved August 24, 2009. 
  49. ^ Cutler 2010 (official candidate web site)
  50. ^ a b c d e f g Cover, Susan (2 June 2010). "Three unenrolled candidates qualify for governor's race". Portland Press Herald. http://www.pressherald.com/news/three-unenrolled-candidates-qualify-for-governors-race_2010-06-02.html. Retrieved 2 June 2010. 
  51. ^ "Two Independent Gubernatorial Candidates Qualify for Maine Ballot". MBPN. April 23, 2010. http://www.mpbn.net/Home/tabid/36/ctl/ViewItem/mid/3483/ItemId/11890/Default.aspx. 
  52. ^ Shawn Moody for Governor of Maine (official candidate web site)
  53. ^ Wilensky-Lanford, Ethan (May 27, 2010). "Scott envisions role as 'a citizen governor'". Portland Press Herald. http://www.pressherald.com/news/Profile-Scott-envisions-role-as-a-citizen-governor-.html. Retrieved May 27, 2010. 
  54. ^ Kevin L. Scott: Maine Governor 2010 (official candidate web site)
  55. ^ Tice, Lindsay (August 26, 2010). "Jenkins' campaign hinges on Web friends". Lewiston Sun Journal. http://www.sunjournal.com/city/story/899470. Retrieved August 27, 2010. 
  56. ^ Draft John Jenkins to be Maine Governor in 2010 Facebook Fan Page. August 26, 2010.
  57. ^ "Waterville mayor files to run for governor". Portland Press Herald. 23 September 2009. http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/updates/updates/waterville-mayor-files-to-run-for-governor. Retrieved 23 September 2009. "Beverly Cooper-Pete of Portland also filed Tuesday as an unenrolled candidate." 
  58. ^ Wickenheiser, Matt (15 September 2010). "Maine gubernatorial candidates put the focus on homeless". Portland Press Herald. http://www.pressherald.com/news/candidates-put-the-focus-on-homeless_2010-09-15.html. Retrieved 15 September 2010. "The candidates who attended were Democrat Libby Mitchell and independent Shawn Moody, along with write-in candidates Beverly Cooper-Pete and Ed Braley ..." 
  59. ^ Alex Hammer for Maine Governor (official candidate web site)
  60. ^ Miller, Kevin (June 29, 2010). "Blaine House candidate sues over denied petitions". Bangor Daily News. http://www.bangordailynews.com/detail/147466.html. Retrieved July 1, 2010. 
  61. ^ "Gov. candidate Hammer sues Sec. of State | Mainebiz". Mainebiz.biz. http://www.mainebiz.biz/news46535.html. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  62. ^ Associated Press. "Judge: state correct in rejecting candidate's signatures". Portland Press Herald. http://www.pressherald.com/news/maine-governor-race-alex-hammer-signatures-rejected.html. Retrieved 29 September 2010. 
  63. ^ Sam Bailey: Governor 2010 (official candidate web site)
  64. ^ Journal, Kennebec (14 April 2010). "Gay-rights foe running for Maine governor". Portland Press Herald. http://www.pressherald.com/news/gay-rights-foe-running-for-governor_2010-04-14.html. Retrieved 14 April 2010. 
  65. ^ Press, Associated (14 April 2010). "Heath decides against running for gov". Portland Press Herald. http://www.pressherald.com/news/Heath-decides-against-running-for-gov.html. Retrieved 14 April 2010. 
  66. ^ Bangor Daily News. "Maine Green party chairwoman to run for governor". http://bangornews.com/detail/94921.html. Retrieved 2008-12-30. 
  67. ^ Lynne Williams for Governor 2010 (official candidate web site)
  68. ^ Green candidate drops out of governor's race March 15, 2010, Portland Press Herald
  69. ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. http://cookpolitical.com/governors. Retrieved October 29, 2010. 
  70. ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/governor. Retrieved October 29, 2010. 
  71. ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/2010_elections_governor_map.html. Retrieved October 29, 2010. 
  72. ^ "2010 Governor Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2010-governor/. Retrieved October 29, 2010. 
  73. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-governor. Retrieved October 29, 2010. 
  74. ^ "Election 2010: Gubernatorial Scorecard". Rasmussen Reports. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/election_2010_gubernatorial_scorecard. Retrieved October 29, 2010. 
  75. ^ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/maine/toplines/toplines_maine_governor_august_12_2010/

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