Oregon gubernatorial election, 2010

Oregon gubernatorial election, 2010

2006 ← November 2, 2010 → 2014

Nominee John Kitzhaber Chris Dudley Party Democratic Republican Alliance Independent Popular vote 716,525 694,287 Percentage 49.29 47.77

County results

Governor before election Ted Kulongoski Democratic Elected Governor John Kitzhaber Democratic

The Oregon gubernatorial election of 2010 was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Oregon, who will serve a four-year term to begin on January 10, 2011. The incumbent governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, was ineligible to run due to term limits barring him from being elected to more than two consecutive terms.

The Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber, who had previously served two terms as governor from 1995 to 2003, was elected to a third term, earning a narrow victory over Republican candidate Chris Dudley and two minor party candidates. Kitzhaber's election marked the first time in Oregon's history that a person has been elected to a third term as governor.

Almost every opinion poll throughout the election season showed a statistical tie between the two. State Republicans saw this election as the best chance to win the governorship since the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh, was re-elected in 1982. Once polls closed on election day, Dudley had led in early vote counts, but Kitzhaber's wide margins in Multnomah and Lane counties eventually erased Dudley's lead.^[1]

Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.^[2] Kitzhaber was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon in addition to the Democratic Party.

Primaries

The Republican and Democratic Oregon gubernatorial primaries occurred on May 18, 2010.^[3]

Democratic Party of Oregon

Candidates

• John Kitzhaber, former Governor of Oregon^[4]
• Bill Bradbury, former Secretary of State of Oregon^[4]
• Roger Obrist, retired topographic field assistant^[4]

Results

Oregon Democratic gubernatorial primary results [5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage
	Democratic	John Kitzhaber	242,545	64.78%
	Democratic	Bill Bradbury	110,298	29.46%
	Democratic	Roger Obrist	16,057	4.29%
		write-ins	5,504	1.47%
Totals			374,404	100%

Oregon Republican Party

Candidates

• Chris Dudley, wealth strategist and former NBA player^[4]
• Allen Alley, former CEO and deputy chief of staff to Governor Ted Kulongoski^[4]
• Clark Colvin, business executive^[4]
• William Ames Curtright^[4]
• Bob Forthan, state of Oregon employee^[4]
• Darren Karr, small business owner^[4]
• John Lim, international business consultant and former Oregon State Senator^[4]
• Bill Sizemore, taxpayer advocate, public policy researcher and 1998 Republican nominee for Governor^[4]
• Rex O. Watkins, real estate management executive^[4]

Results

Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary results[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage
	Republican	Chris Dudley	122,855	39.11%
	Republican	Allen Alley	99,753	31.76%
	Republican	John Lim	47,339	15.07%
	Republican	Bill Sizemore	23,522	7.49%
	Republican	William Ames Curtright	12,497	3.98%
	Republican	Rex O. Watkins	3,060	0.97%
		write-ins	2,001	0.64%
	Republican	Clark Colvin	1,206	0.38%
	Republican	Darren Karr	1,127	0.36%
	Republican	Bob Forthan	727	0.23%
Totals			314,087	100%

Independent Party of Oregon

Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.^[2] As a result, the Independent Party of Oregon did not file a candidate and instead chose to hold a month-long online primary in July.^[6] In doing so, it became the first political party in the United States to conduct a binding statewide primary election entirely over the Internet,^[7] and it was the largest nominating process ever held by an Oregon minor political party.^[8] Republican Chris Dudley did not apply for the Independent Party nomination by the required date, so he was not on the ballot, but he could be written in.^[6]

Candidates

• John Kitzhaber, former Governor of Oregon^[4]
• Jerry Wilson, founder and CEO of Soloflex, Inc.^[9]
• Richard Esterman, photographer^[10]

Results

Independent Party of Oregon gubernatorial primary results[11]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage
	Democratic	John Kitzhaber	850	38.39%
	None	Richard Esterman	438	19.78%
		write-ins	314	14.18%
		None of the above	312	14.09%
	Progressive	Jerry Wilson	300	13.55%
Totals			2,214	100%

General election

Candidates

• Chris Dudley (Republican), wealth strategist and former NBA player^[12]
• John Kitzhaber (Democratic, Independent), health policy advocate, former emergency room physician and former Governor of Oregon^[12]
• Greg Kord (Constitution), industrial piping designer^[12]
• Wes Wagner (Libertarian), systems administrator^[12]

Campaign

Following the primaries, the two leading candidates, Dudley and Kitzhaber, campaigned separately throughout the state for the summer. Despite attempts by both campaigns to arrange a debate, the candidates could only agree on a single debate on September 30.^[13] Through the end of September, the Dudley campaign had raised $5.6 million, more than twice as much as the Kitzhaber campaign.^[14]

Throughout the last few months of the campaign, opinion polls showed a tight race with the lead apparently changing frequently. Due to the closeness of the race, President Barack Obama, for whom Oregon voted by a 16-percent margin in 2008, stumped for Kitzhaber; then headlined a rally at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland on October 20, 2010.

Newspaper endorsements

Newspaper	Endorsement
The Oregonian (Portland)		John Kitzhaber[15]
Willamette Week (Portland)		John Kitzhaber[16]
Portland Tribune		John Kitzhaber[17]
The Register-Guard (Eugene)		John Kitzhaber[18]
Statesman Journal (Salem)		Chris Dudley[19]
Mail Tribune (Medford)		John Kitzhaber[20]
The Bulletin (Bend)		Chris Dudley[21]
East Oregonian (Pendleton)		John Kitzhaber[22]
The Lake Oswego Review		John Kitzhaber[23]
The News-Review (Roseburg)		John Kitzhaber[24]
The Outlook (Gresham)		John Kitzhaber[25]
The Daily Astorian		John Kitzhaber[26]
Corvallis Gazette-Times		John Kitzhaber[27]
News-Register (McMinnville)		Chris Dudley[28]
The Sandy Post		John Kitzhaber[29]
Beaverton Valley Times		John Kitzhaber[30]
West Linn Tidings		John Kitzhaber[31]

Results

Polls closed on November 2, 2010 at 8:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (UTC−7) in the vast majority of the state — and one hour earlier, at 8:00 PM Mountain Daylight Time (UTC−6), in most of Malheur County in eastern Oregon.

Dudley won the vast majority of sparsely-populated counties and showed an early lead;^[32] however, Kitzhaber held a 70%–28% lead in Multnomah County, which had received nearly 90,000 ballots on the day of the election.^[33] Verifying and counting of ballots stretched well into the next day, November 3, with no winner determined until mid-afternoon. By that time, Dudley's lead had narrowed considerably, and the major media called the race for Kitzhaber, extrapolating that the ballots yet to be counted in the Democratic strongholds of Multnomah and Lane counties would be enough to give Kitzhaber the victory.^[1] Dudley conceded a few hours later.^[34]

Oregon gubernatorial election, 2010[35]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage
	Democratic	John Kitzhaber	716,525	49.29%
	Republican	Chris Dudley	694,287	47.77%
	Constitution (Oregon)	Greg Kord	20,475	1.41%
	Libertarian	Wes Wagner	19,048	1.31%
		write-ins	3,213	0.22%
Totals			1,453,548	100%
Margin of victory			22,238	1.53%
	Democratic hold

Polling

Democratic primary

Poll source	Date administered	John Kitzhaber	Bill Bradbury	Undecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall	May 8–10, 2010	53%	23%	22%
Survey USA	May 7–9, 2010	59%	25%	12%

Republican primary

Poll source	Date administered	Chris Dudley	Allen Alley	John Lim	Bill Sizemore	Undecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall	May 8–10, 2010	33%	23%	8%	6%	24%
Survey USA	May 7–9, 2010	42%	24%	8%	8%	14%

General election

The race was rated a "toss-up" by The Cook Political Report,^[36] Rasmussen Reports,^[37] and The New York Times.^[38] FiveThirtyEight.com's latest model gave Kitzhaber a 75.9-percent chance of winning the election.^[39]

Poll source	Date administered	Margin of Error	John Kitzhaber (D)	Chris Dudley (R)	Other Candidate	Undecided
Davis & Hibbitts	October 30–31, 2010	± 3.1%	46%	43%
Survey USA	October 23–28, 2010	± 4.2%	48%	41%	2%	8%
Rasmussen Reports	October 25, 2010	± 4.0%	46%	49%	3%	3%
Hibbitts	October 24–25, 2010	± 4.4%	42%	45%	2%	12%
Elway Research	October 18–19, 2010	± 4.4%	45%	44%	3%	5%
Public Policy Polling	October 16–17, 2010	± 2.8%	48%	47%		5%
Survey USA	October 12–14, 2010	± 3.9%	46%	45%	4%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	October 10, 2010	± 4.0%	48%	46%	3%	4%
Survey USA	September 12–14, 2010	± 4.2%	43%	49%	5%	3%
Riley Research	Aug. 31-Sept. 9, 2010	± 5.0%	40%	39%	5%	16%
Rasmussen Reports	September 8, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	49%	2%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	August 22, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	45%	3%	8%
Grove Insight	August 18–21, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	35%	4%	14%
Survey USA	July 25–27, 2010	± 4.2%	44%	46%	7%	4%
Rasmussen Reports	July 26, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	47%	5%	4%
Magellan Strategies	June 28, 2010	± 3.2%	40%	41%	10%	9%
Davis, Hibbits and Midghall	June 21, 2010	unk	41%	41%	6%	12%
Rasmussen Reports	June 17, 2010	± 4.5%	45%	47%	4%	4%
Survey USA	June 7–9, 2010	± 4.2%	40%	47%	6%	7%
Rasmussen Reports	May 20, 2010	± 4.5%	44%	45%	4%	6%
Rasmussen Reports	April 26, 2010	± 4.0%	41%	41%	4%	4%
Moore Insight	February 20–21, 2010	± 4.0%	45%	33%		21%
Rasmussen Reports	February 17, 2010	± 4.5%	42%	36%	7%	15%

See also

• Oregon state elections, 2010
• Governor of Oregon
• List of governors of Oregon
• United States gubernatorial elections, 2010

References

1. ^ ^{a b} "The Oregonian's prediction: John Kitzhaber wins Oregon governor race". The Oregonian. November 3, 2010. http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2010/11/the_oregonians_prediction_john.html. Retrieved November 3, 2010. 
2. ^ ^{a b} Mapes, Jeff (July 8, 2009). "Kulongoski will sign fusion voting bill". The Oregonian. http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2009/07/kulongoski_will_sign_fusion_vo.html. Retrieved October 12, 2010. 
3. ^ http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G10/gpaag.phtml Retrieved 8/23/09
4. ^ ^{a b c d e f g h i j k l m} "Candidate Filings, Governor (2010 Primary Election)". Oregon Secretary of State. https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/cfFilings.do?cfSearchButtonName=&cfName=&cfyearActive=2010&cfElection=196&cfOffice=GOV&cfOfficeGrp=&cfPartyAffiliation=&cfFilingFromDate=&cfFilingToDate=&cfWithDrawFromDate=&cfWithDrawToDate=. Retrieved February 24, 2010. 
5. ^ ^{a b} "May 18, 2010, Primary Election Abstracts of Votes: Governor". Oregon Secretary of State. http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/doc/history/may182010/results/gv.pdf. Retrieved April 14, 2011. 
6. ^ ^{a b} IPO primary FAQ
7. ^ "E-voting not ready yet". The Oregonian. http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2010/08/e-voting_not_ready_yet.html/. Retrieved August 11, 2010. 
8. ^ "Oregon Independent Party Releases Results of its Private Primary". Ballot Access News. http://www.ballot-access.org/2010/07/31/oregon-independent-party-releases-results-of-its-private-primary//. Retrieved August 11, 2010. 
9. ^ Jerry Wilson for governor
10. ^ Richard Esterman
11. ^ IPO results for governor
12. ^ ^{a b c d} "Candidate Filings, Governor (2010 General Election)". Oregon Secretary of State. https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/cfFilings.do?cfSearchButtonName=&cfName=&cfyearActive=2010&cfElection=197&cfOffice=GOV&cfOfficeGrp=&cfPartyAffiliation=&cfFilingFromDate=&cfFilingToDate=&cfWithDrawFromDate=&cfWithDrawToDate=. Retrieved August 20, 2010. 
13. ^ Esteve, Harry (October 1, 2010). "John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley spar in Oregon gubernatorial campaign's only debate". The Oregonian. http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2010/09/john_kitzhaber_and_chris_dudle.html. Retrieved October 1, 2010. 
14. ^ Steves, David (September 29, 2010). "Dudley doubles donor dollars". The Register-Guard. http://www.registerguard.com/csp/cms/sites/web/news/cityregion/25346039-41/dudley-million-oregon-association-kitzhaber.csp. Retrieved October 1, 2010. 
15. ^ "Our endorsement: Kitzhaber for governor". The Oregonian (Portland). October 10, 2010. http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2010/10/the_oregonians_endorsement_kit.html. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
16. ^ "Save Our State!". Willamette Week (Portland). October 13, 2010. http://wweek.com/editorial/3649/14626/. Retrieved November 7, 2010. 
17. ^ "Let Kitzhaber steer state into future". Portland Tribune (Pamplin Media Group). October 14, 2010. http://www.portlandtribune.com/opinion/story.php?story_id=128700724989627300. Retrieved November 7, 2010. 
18. ^ "Kitzhaber for governor: Oregon needs experience, not a fresh face". The Register-Guard (Eugene). October 17, 2010. http://www.registerguard.com/csp/cms/sites/web/opinion/25403764-47/state-kitzhaber-dudley-oregon-governor.csp. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
19. ^ "Chris Dudley worth taking a risk on: Candidate more likely to bring jobs, unity to state". Statesman Journal (Salem). October 10, 2010. http://www.statesmanjournal.com/article/20101010/OPINION/10100334. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
20. ^ "Governor: John Kitzhaber: Oregon's problems are too complex for a newcomer; the state needs his experience". Mail Tribune (Medford). October 17, 2010. http://www.mailtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20101017/OPINION/10170301. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
21. ^ "Pick Dudley for governor". The Bulletin (Bend). October 15, 2010. http://bendbulletin.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20101015/NEWS0107/10150357. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
22. ^ "Kitzhaber brings a clear vision for Oregon’s future". East Oregonian (Pendleton). October 17, 2010. http://www.eastoregonian.com/opinion/article_39bd7110-d9f9-11df-833d-001cc4c03286.html. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
23. ^ "It’s Kitzhaber by a nose in state gubernatorial contest". The Lake Oswego Review. October 21, 2010. http://www.lakeoswegoreview.com/opinion/story.php?story_id=128761202022728300. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
24. ^ "Kitzhaber's experience more valuable than fresh face". The News-Review (Roseburg). October 24, 2010. http://www.nrtoday.com/article/20101024/EDITORIALS/101029887/1022&parentprofile=1058. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
25. ^ "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Outlook (Gresham). October 16, 2010. http://www.theoutlookonline.com/opinion/story.php?story_id=128718594371102400. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
26. ^ "John Kitzhaber for governor". The Daily Astorian. October 7, 2010. http://www.dailyastorian.com/main.asp?Search=1&ArticleID=73897&SectionID=23&SubSectionID=392&S=1. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
27. ^ "Kitzhaber best suited to lead Oregon". Corvallis Gazette-Times. October 21, 2010. http://gazettetimes.com/news/opinion/editorial/article_7f8efc6e-dcdc-11df-9da7-001cc4c002e0.html. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
28. ^ "Endorsement summary: November 2010 general election". News-Register (McMinnville). October 30, 2010. http://www.newsregister.com/article/45941-editorial+endorsement+summary+november+2010+general+election. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
29. ^ "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Sandy Post. Pamplin Media Group. 20 October 2010. http://www.sandypost.com/opinion/story.php?story_id=128753181542383100. Retrieved 8 November 2010. 
30. ^ "Kitzhaber earns slim nod thanks to his experience". Beaverton Valley Times. Pamplin Media Group. 14 October 2010. http://www.beavertonvalleytimes.com/opinion/story.php?story_id=128708794254395800. Retrieved 8 November 2010. 
31. ^ "Let Kitzhaber steer Oregon". West Linn Tidings. Pamplin Media Group. 21 October 2010. http://www.westlinntidings.com/opinion/story.php?story_id=128760612739096300. Retrieved 8 November 2010. 
32. ^ Esteve, Harry (November 3, 2010). "Chris Dudley, John Kitzhaber nearly even in Oregon governor's race". The Oregonian. http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2010/11/oregon_governor_election_resul.html. Retrieved November 3, 2010. 
33. ^ "Daily Turnout (Ballots Returned)". Multnomah County. http://www.mcelections.org/2010-11/turnout.shtml. Retrieved November 3, 2010. 
34. ^ "Dudley concedes the governor's race to Kitzhaber". KATU.com. November 3, 2010. http://www.katu.com/news/politics/106632218.html. Retrieved November 3, 2010. 
35. ^ "November 2, 2010, General Election Abstracts of Votes - GOVERNOR". Oregon Secretary of State. http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/doc/history/nov22010/results/gv.pdf. Retrieved December 2, 2010. 
36. ^ "Governors". Cook Political Report. http://www.cookpolitical.com/governors. Retrieved November 1, 2010. 
37. ^ "Election 2010: Gubernatorial Scorecard". Rasmussen Reports. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/election_2010_gubernatorial_scorecard. Retrieved November 1, 2010. 
38. ^ "Oregon Governor Race Profile". The New York Times. http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/governor/oregon. Retrieved November 1, 2010. 
39. ^ "Oregon Governor - FiveThirtyEight Election Forecasts and Polls". FiveThirtyEight.com. http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/governor/oregon. Retrieved November 2, 2010. 

External links

• Oregon Secretary of State - Elections Division
• Oregon Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
• Campaign contributions for 2010 Oregon Governor from Follow the Money
• Oregon Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
• Election 2010: Oregon Governor from Rasmussen Reports
• 2010 Oregon Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Oregon Governor's Race from CQ Politics
• Race Profile in The New York Times

Official campaign websites

• Chris Dudley for Governor
• John Kitzhaber for Governor
• Greg Kord for Governor
• Wes Wagner for Governor