United States presidential election in Oregon, 2004

Main article: United States presidential election, 2004

United States presidential election in Oregon, 2004

2000 ← November 2, 2004 → 2008

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 7 0 Popular vote 943,163 866,831 Percentage 51.4% 47.2%

County Results

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Oregon was won by Democrat nominee John Kerry by a 4.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a blue state. A moderate amount of campaigning took place here, as Kerry won every poll after October 14, and each with between 47% to 53% of the vote. Despite the state having been very competitive in the past two elections, the state is a consistent blue state that a Republican hasn't won in a presidential election since 1984. Kerry won this state with a larger margin, indicating the state is trending Democratic.

Primaries

• Oregon Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
2. Associated Press: Toss Up
3. CNN: Kerry
4. Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat
5. Newsweek: Lean Kerry
6. New York Times: Lean Kerry
7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
9. Washington Post: Toss Up
10. Washington Times: Battleground
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won most pre-election polling. The final 3 poll average had Kerry leading 50% to 45%.^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,497,451.^[3] Kerry raised $1,937,916.^[4]

Advertising and visits

In the week of September 28, both tickets combined spent an estimated $546,000 on advertising. However, both tickets spent less and less money each week.^[5] Bush visited here 2 times. Kerry visited here 3 times. Both tickets visited the western part of the state.^[6]

Analysis

After the 2000 election, which saw a really close race, Oregon was largely considered a potential Republican target, however Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry won 51% of Oregon's vote, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Most rural counties favored Bush, but Kerry's strong support in the more urban Willamette Valley allowed him to win the state. About 68% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results

United States presidential election in Oregon, 2004
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	943,163	51.4%	7
	Republican	George W. Bush	866,831	47.2%	0
	Write Ins		8,956	0.5%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	7,260	0.4%	0
	Green	David Cobb	5,315	0.3%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	5,257	0.3%	0
Totals			-	100.00%	7
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					67.8%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Bush#	Bush%	Kerry#	Kerry%	Others#	Others%
Baker	6,253	69.2	2,616	29.0	165	1.8
Benton	18,460	40.4	26,514	58.0	760	1.7
Clackamas	97,961	50.1	95,129	48.8	2,180	1.1
Clatsop	8,503	44.0	10,461	54.2	345	1.8
Columbia	11,868	47.6	12,563	50.4	486	2.0
Coos	18,291	54.8	14,393	43.1	678	2.0
Crook	6,830	68.0	3,024	30.1	197	2.0
Curry	7,332	57.3	5,220	40.8	247	1.9
Deschutes	41,757	56.4	31,179	42.1	1,112	1.5
Douglas	35,956	65.4	18,089	32.9	939	1.7
Gilliam	755	66.3	370	32.5	13	1.1
Grant	3,204	78.9	780	19.2	77	1.9
Harney	2,815	76.0	839	22.7	48	1.3
Hood River	4,124	41.8	5,587	56.7	148	1.5
Jackson	56,519	55.3	44,366	43.4	1,304	1.3
Jefferson	4,762	58.7	3,243	40.0	110	1.4
Josephine	26,241	62.1	15,124	36.0	820	1.9
Klamath	22,733	72.1	8,264	26.2	518	1.6
Lake	3,039	77.8	802	20.5	64	1.6
Lane	75,007	40.4	107,769	58.0	3,096	1.7
Lincoln	10,160	41.8	13,753	56.5	412	1.7
Linn	31,260	60.1	19,940	38.3	841	1.6
Malheur	8,123	74.9	2,577	23.8	146	1.3
Marion	69,900	53.9	57,671	44.5	2,048	1.6
Morrow	2,732	65.8	1,361	32.8	56	1.3
Multnomah	98,439	27.1	259,585	71.6	4,670	1.3
Polk	19,508	55.0	15,484	43.6	497	1.4
Sherman	694	62.9	390	35.3	20	1.8
Tillamook	7,003	50.2	6,750	48.4	198	1.4
Umatilla	17,068	64.8	8,884	33.8	370	1.4
Union	8,879	65.7	4,428	32.8	212	1.6
Wallowa	3,132	69.3	1,269	28.1	120	2.7
Wasco	6,119	51.0	5,691	47.4	192	1.6
Washington	107,223	46.4	121,140	52.4	2,945	1.3
Wheeler	612	69.5	245	27.8	23	2.6
Yamhill	23,839	56.6	17,572	41.7	731	1.7

By congressional district

Kerry won 3 of 5 congressional districts.^[7]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	44%	55%	David Wu
2nd	61%	38%	Greg Walden
3rd	33%	67%	Earl Blumenauer
4th	49%	49%	Peter DeFazio
5th	50%	49%	Darlene Hooley

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2004

Technically the voters of Oregon cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oregon is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 7 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

1. Michael J. Bohan
2. Shirley A. Cairns
3. James L. Edmunson
4. Moshe D. Lenske
5. Meredith Wood Smith
6. Judy A. Sugnet
7. Paul F. Zastrow

References

1. ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
2. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=41
3. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
4. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
5. ^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
6. ^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/OR/
7. ^ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/