United States Senate election in Maryland, 2010

United States Senate election in Maryland, 2010

2004 ← November 2, 2010 → 2016

Nominee Barbara Mikulski Eric Wargotz Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,140,531 655,666 Percentage 62.2% 35.8%

County results

U.S. Senator before election Barbara Mikulski Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski Democratic

The 2010 United States Senate election in Maryland was held on November 2, 2010. Primary elections were held on September 14, 2010. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski won re-election to a fifth term.

Background

According to Baltimore Sun columnist David Nitkin, Mikulski had indicated she planned to seek re-election to a fifth term. If Mikulski were to win re-election and serve the full term, she would tie Paul Sarbanes as the longest serving senator in state history, and also becoming the longest serving female senator in history, turning 80 years old in the process.^[1] On February 15, 2010, rumors began to circulate that Mikulski would not seek reelection; however, these were denied by Democratic sources soon after.^[2][3]

High-profile opposition for Mikulski was not anticipated since she remained popular in the state. She has previously won senate elections in 1986, 1992, 1998, and 2004 by margins of 21, 42, 41 and 31 percentage points, respectively. Additionally, in the general election, state Republicans are expected to focus most of their attention on the seats of Governor Martin O'Malley and first-term Congressman Frank Kratovil, the latter of whom won a surprise victory in a conservative district of the state.^[1] Nitkin^[1] and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball^[4] consider her seat as overwhelmingly "safe."

Primary results

Democratic primary

Democratic primary results[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage
	Democratic	Barbara Mikulski (incumbent)	388,868	82.32%
	Democratic	Christopher J. Garner	35,579	7.53%
	Democratic	A. Billy Bob Jaworski	15,131	3.20%
	Democratic	Blaine Taylor	10,787	2.28%
	Democratic	Theresa C. Scaldaferri	7,913	1.68%
	Democratic	Sanquetta Taylor	7,365	1.56%
	Democratic	Lih Young	6,733	1.43%
Totals			472,376	100%

Republican primary

Republican primary results[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage
	Republican	Eric Wargotz	92,464	38.57%
	Republican	Jim Rutledge	73,311	30.58%
	Republican	Joseph Alexander	14,026	5.85%
	Republican	Neil H. Cohen	13,613	5.68%
	Republican	Stephens Dempsey	9,325	3.89%
	Republican	Daniel W. McAndrew	8,460	3.53%
	Republican	John B. Kimble	8,081	3.37%
	Republican	Samuel R. Graham, Sr.	6,600	2.75%
	Republican	Barry Steve Asbury	5,900	2.46%
	Republican	Eddie Vendetti	5,046	2.10%
	Republican	Gregory Kump	2,931	1.22%
Totals			239,757	100%

General election

Candidates

Major

• Barbara Mikulski (D), incumbent U.S. Senator
• Eric Wargotz (R), Queen Anne's County Commissioner and doctor

Minor

• Don Kaplan (Independent) website and videos: donkaplanforussenate.com
• Richard Shawver (Constitution)
• Kenniss Henry (Green)
• Natasha Pettigrew (deceased) was the Green Party candidate. On September 19, while cycling, Pettigrew was hit by an SUV. Her mother, Kenniss Henry, was chosen by the Green Party to replace Pettigrew on the ballot.^[6]

Campaign

Wargotz, a political unknown, released only one television ad, comparing Mikulski to a dinosaur by calling her a political "insidersaurus" for being in Washington for over thirty years. Mikulski released positive advertisements emphsizing education and job creation.^[7] The incumbent had one of the highest approval ratings among U.S. Senators in the nation, with a 54% approval rating in a PPP poll.^[8]

Despite Wargotz's limited campaign and resources he received the highest percentage of votes against Mikulski in over 10 years.

Debates

The two candidates did not agree to a debate.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report	Solid D[9]	October 19, 2010
Rothenberg	Safe D[10]	October 15, 2010
Swing State Project	Safe D[citation needed]
RealClearPolitics	Safe D[11]	October 19, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D[12]	October 14, 2010
CQ Politics	Safe D[13]	October 19, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Barbara Mikulski (D)	Eric Wargotz (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)	October 24, 2010	750	± 4.0%	56%	38%	2%	4%
Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks (report)	October 15–20, 2010	798	± 3.5%	59%	32%	––	8%
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. (report)	October 11–16, 2010	816	± 3.5%	55%	38%	––	7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	September 15, 2010	750	± 4.0%	54%	38%	4%	4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	August 20, 2010	750	± 4.0%	55%	39%	3%	3%
Public Policy Polling (report)	July 10–12, 2010	569	± 4.1%	59%	27%	––	14%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	July 8, 2010	500	± 4.5%	58%	33%	2%	7%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt	Cash minus debt
Barbara Mikulski (D)	$3,690,724	$2,792,437	$1,772,774	$0	$1,772,774
Eric Wargotz (R)	$1,210,327	$743,392	$466,931	$850,000	$-383,069
Source: Federal Election Commission[14]

Results

United States Senate election in Maryland, 2010[15]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Barbara Mikulski (incumbent)	1,140,531	62.19%	-2.61%
	Republican	Eric Wargotz	655,666	35.75%	+2.05%
	Green	Kenniss Henry	20,717	1.13%	+0.06%
	Constitution	Richard Shawver	14,746	0.80%	+0.42%
	Write-ins		2,213	0.11%	+0.05%
Majority			484,865	26.44%
Total votes			1,833,873	100%
	Democratic hold		Swing

References

1. ^ ^{a b c} Nitkin, David (12 November 2008). "Smooth sailing for Mikulski". Maryland Politics Blog. Baltimore Sun. http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/2008/11/smooth_sailing_for_mikulski.html. Retrieved 9 January 2009. 
2. ^ Geraghty, Jim (February 15, 2010). "Let's Get Real: Barbara Mikulski Does Not Fear a Loss This Year.". National Review. http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTdmOWJmZGQ2ZGJiZDhkNzI3NjFiODczMDY5NTRkZjQ. Retrieved February 16, 2010. 
3. ^ Hockstader, Lee (February 16, 2010). "Mikulski another Dem retirement? Not likely.". The Washington Post. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/02/mikulski_another_dem_retiremen.html. Retrieved February 16, 2010. 
4. ^ "Senate 2010: A three-peat for Democrats or Comeback for the GOP?". Crystal Ball. 2009-02-19. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2009021901. 
5. ^ ^{a b} "Maryland Senate Primary Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. September 17, 2010. http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2010/results/Primary/StateResults_office_007.html. Retrieved September 17, 2010. 
6. ^ Natasha Pettigrew - Mother to replace Green Party nominee for Senate - Baltimore Sun
7. ^ Pershing, Ben; Dropp, Kyle (October 4, 2010). "Mikulski leads despite drop in popularity". The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/03/AR2010100304687_3.html?sid=ST2010100401599. 
8. ^ Public Policy Polling: The most...and least...popular Senators of 2010
9. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. http://cookpolitical.com/senate. Retrieved October 19, 2010. 
10. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/senate. Retrieved October 19, 2010. 
11. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html. Retrieved October 19, 2010. 
12. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2010-senate/. Retrieved October 19, 2010. 
13. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-senate. Retrieved October 19, 2010. 
14. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Maryland". fec.gov. http://www.fec.gov:80/DisclosureSearch/HSRefreshCandList.do?category=stateS_all&stateName=MD&election_yr=2010. Retrieved May 1, 2010. 
15. ^ Maryland State Board of Elections

External links

• Maryland State Board of Elections
• U.S. Congress candidates for Maryland at Project Vote Smart
• Maryland U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
• Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
• 2010 Maryland Polls graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Election 2010: Maryland Senate from Rasmussen Reports
• Maryland Senate from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Maryland Senate Race from CQ Politics
• Race profile from The New York Times
• Candidate blogs at The Baltimore Sun

Official campaign sites

• Barbara Mikulski for U.S. Senate incumbent
• Daniel W. McAndrew for U.S. Senate
• Rutledge for U.S. Senate
• Vaughn for U.S. Senate
• Wargotz for U.S. Senate
• Dr. Neil Cohen for U. S. Senate

Preceded by 2006 Ben Cardin (D)

United States Senate election in Maryland 2010 Barbara Mikulski (D)

Succeeded by 2012 Winner TBD