IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

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Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The report is the largest and most detailed summary of the climate change situation ever undertaken, produced by thousands of authors, editors, and reviewer from dozens of countries, citing over 6,000 peer-reviewed scientific studies. It supersedes the Third Assessment Report (2001), and will in turn be superseded by the Fifth Assessment Report (expected in 2014). Among its notable findings:

• "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal."
• "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."

Climate Change 2007: Report Overview

The Fourth Assessment Report (Climate Change 2007) was released in four principal sections:

• Contribution of Working Group I (WGI): Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.^[1]
• Contribution of Working Group II (WGII): Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.^[2]
• Contribution of Working Group III (WGIII): Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change.^[3]
• Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III: The Synthesis Report (SYR).^[4]

Working Group I (WGI): The Physical Science Basis

The four SRES scenario families [5] of the Fourth Assessment Report vs. projected global average surface warming until 2100
AR4 (Summary; PDF)[page needed]	More economic focus	More environmental focus
Globalisation (homogeneous world)	A1 rapid economic growth (groups: A1T; A1B; A1Fl) 1.4 - 6.4 °C	B1 global environmental sustainability  1.1 - 2.9 °C
Regionalisation (heterogeneous world)	A2 regionally oriented economic development 2.0 - 5.4 °C	B2 local environmental sustainability 1.4 - 3.8 °C

The full WGI report^[6] was published in March, and last updated on 5 September 2007. It includes a Summary for Policymakers (SPM)(published 2 February 2007 and revised 5 February 2007), and a Frequently Asked Questions section.

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis "assesses the current scientific knowledge of the natural and human drivers of climate change, observed changes in climate, the ability of science to attribute changes to different causes, and projections for future climate change". It was produced by 152 lead authors, 26 review edtiors, and 498 contributing authors (see list) from 40 countries (citing over 6,000 peer-reviewed publications), then reviewed by over 625 expert reviewers.^[7] Before being approved, the summary was reviewed line-by-line by representatives from 113 governments during the 10th Session of Working Group I,^[8] which took place in Paris, France, between 29 January and 1 February 2007.

On the issue of global warming and its causes, the SPM states that:

• "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal."^[9]
• "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."^[10]

Very likely and likely mean "the assessed likelihood, using expert judgment" are over 90% and over 66%, respectively.^[11]

Observations

The report notes many observed changes in the Earth's climate including atmospheric composition, global average temperatures, ocean conditions, and other climate changes.

Changes in the atmosphere

Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are all long-lived greenhouse gases.

• "Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values."^{[page needed]}
• The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2005 (379 ppm) exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm).^{[page needed]}
• The amount of methane in the atmosphere in 2005 (1774 ppb) exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (320 to 790 ppb).^{[page needed]}
• The primary source of the increase in carbon dioxide is fossil fuel use, but land-use changes also make a contribution.^{[page needed]}
• The primary source of the increase in methane is very likely to be a combination of human agricultural activities and fossil fuel use. How much each contributes is not well determined.^{[page needed]}
• Nitrous oxide concentrations have risen from a pre-industrial value of 270 ppb to a 2005 value of 319 ppb. More than a third of this rise is due to human activity, primarily agriculture.^{[page needed]}

Warming of the planet

Cold days, cold nights, and frost events have become less frequent. Hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent. Additionally:

• Eleven of the twelve years in the period (1995–2006) rank among the top 12 warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1880).
• Warming in the last 100 years has caused about a 0.74 °C increase in global average temperature. This is up from the 0.6 °C increase in the 100 years prior to the Third Assessment Report.
• Urban heat island effects were determined to have negligible influence (less than 0.0006 °C per decade over land and zero over oceans) on these measurements.
• Observations since 1961 show that the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system, and that ocean temperatures have increased to depths of at least 3000 m (9800 ft).
• "Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years."
• It is likely that greenhouse gases would have caused more warming than we have observed if not for the cooling effects of volcanic and human-caused aerosols. See global dimming.
• Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years (including both the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age).

Ice, snow, permafrost, rain, and the oceans

The SPM documents increases in wind intensity, decline of permafrost coverage, and increases of both drought and heavy precipitation events. Additionally:

• "Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres."
• Losses from the land-based ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have very likely (>90%) contributed to sea level rise between 1993 and 2003.
• Ocean warming causes seawater to expand, which contributes to sea level rising.
• Sea level rose at an average rate of about 1.8 mm/year during the years 1961-2003. The rise in sea level during 1993-2003 was at an average rate of 3.1 mm/year. It is not clear whether this is a long-term trend or just variability.
• Antarctic sea ice shows no significant overall trend, consistent with a lack of warming in that region.

Hurricanes

• There has been an increase in hurricane intensity in the North Atlantic since the 1970s, and that increase correlates with increases in sea surface temperature.
• The observed increase in hurricane intensity is larger than climate models predict for the sea surface temperature changes we have experienced.
• There is no clear trend in the number of hurricanes.
• Other regions appear to have experienced increased hurricane intensity as well, but there are concerns about the quality of data in these other regions.
• It is more likely than not (>50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity.
• It is likely (>66%) that we will see increases in hurricane intensity during the 21st century.

Table SPM-2 lists recent trends along with certainty levels for the trend having actually occurred, for a human contribution to the trend, and for the trend occurring in the future. In relation to changes (including increased hurricane intensity) where the certainty of a human contribution is stated as "more likely than not" footnote f to table SPM-2 notes "Magnitude of anthropogenic contributions not assessed. Attribution for these phenomena based on expert judgment rather than formal attribution studies."

Factors that warm or cool the planet

Changes in radiative forcings between 1750 and 2005 as estimated by the IPCC.

AR4 describes warming and cooling effects on the planet in terms of radiative forcing — the rate of change of energy in the system, measured as power per unit area (in SI units, W/m²). The report shows in detail the individual warming contributions (positive forcing) of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons, other human warming factors, and the warming effects of changes in solar activity. Also shown are the cooling effects (negative forcing) of aerosols, land-use changes, and other human activities. All values are shown as a change from pre-industrial conditions.

• Total radiative forcing from the sum of all human activities is about +1.6 watts/m²
• Radiative forcing from an increase of solar intensity since 1750 is about +0.12 watts/m²
• Radiative forcing from carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide combined is very likely (>90%) increasing more quickly during the current era (1750–present) than at any other time in the last 10,000 years.

Climate sensitivity

Climate sensitivity is defined as the amount of global average surface warming following a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations.^{[citation needed]} It is likely to be in the range of 2 to 4.5 °C, with a best estimate of about 3 °C.^{[citation needed]} This range of values is not a projection of the temperature rise we will see in the 21st century, since the future change in carbon dioxide concentrations is unknown, and factors besides carbon dioxide concentrations affect temperature.^{[citation needed]}

Model-based projections for the future

Model projections are made based on an analysis of various computer climate models running within different SRES scenarios. As a result, predictions for the 21st century are as shown below.

• Surface air warming in the 21st century:
  • Best estimate for a "low scenario"^[12] is 1.8 °C with a likely range of 1.1 to 2.9 °C (3.2 °F with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.2 °F)
  • Best estimate for a "high scenario"^[13] is 4.0 °C with a likely range of 2.4 to 6.4 °C (7.2 °F with a likely range of 4.3 to 11.5 °F)
  • A temperature rise of about 0.1 °C per decade would be expected for the next two decades, even if greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations were kept at year 2000 levels.
  • A temperature rise of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for the next two decades for all SRES scenarios.
  • Confidence in these near-term projections is strengthened because of the agreement between past model projections and actual observed temperature increases.
• Based on multiple models that all exclude ice sheet flow due to a lack of basis in published literature,^[14] it is estimated that sea level rise will be:
  • in a low scenario^[12] 18 to 38 cm (7 to 15 inches)
  • in a high scenario^[13] 26 to 59 cm (10 to 23 inches)
• It is very likely that there will be an increase in frequency of warm spells, heat waves and events of heavy rainfall.
• It is likely that there will be an increase in areas affected by droughts, intensity of tropical cyclones (which include hurricanes and typhoons) and the occurrence of extreme high tides.
• "Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic … In some projections, Arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century."

Scenario-specific projections are based on analysis of multiple runs by multiple climate models, using the various SRES Scenarios. "Low scenario" refers to B1, the most optimistic scenario family. "High scenario" refers to A1FI, the most pessimistic scenario family.

Temperature and sea level rise for each SRES scenario family

There are six families of SRES Scenarios, and AR4 provides projected temperature and sea level rises (excluding future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow^[15])for each scenario family.

• Scenario B1
  • Best estimate temperature rise of 1.8 °C with a likely range of 1.1 to 2.9 °C (3.2 °F with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.2 °F)
  • Sea level rise likely range [18 to 38 cm] (7 to 15 inches)
• Scenario A1T
  • Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C (4.3 °F with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 °F)
  • Sea level rise likely range [20 to 45 cm] (8 to 18 inches)
• Scenario B2
  • Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C (4.3 °F with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 °F)
  • Sea level rise likely range [20 to 43 cm] (8 to 17 inches)
• Scenario A1B
  • Best estimate temperature rise of 2.8 °C with a likely range of 1.7 to 4.4 °C (5.0 °F with a likely range of 3.1 to 7.9 °F)
  • Sea level rise likely range [21 to 48 cm] (8 to 19 inches)
• Scenario A2
  • Best estimate temperature rise of 3.4 °C with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.4 °C (6.1 °F with a likely range of 3.6 to 9.7 °F)
  • Sea level rise likely range [23 to 51 cm] (9 to 20 inches)
• Scenario A1FI
  • Best estimate temperature rise of 4.0 °C with a likely range of 2.4 to 6.4 °C (7.2 °F with a likely range of 4.3 to 11.5 °F)
  • Sea level rise likely range [26 to 59 cm] (10 to 23 inches)

Selected quotes from the WGI Summary for Policymakers

• "Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to the timescales required for removal of this gas from the atmosphere."

Reaction to WGI

In the weeks before publication of the first report, controversy broke out about the report's projections of sea-level change, which in the new report was estimated at less than previous estimates. The now-published text gives a warning that the new estimation of sea-level could be too low: "Dynamical processes related to ice flow not included in current models but suggested by recent observations could increase the vulnerability of the ice sheets to warming, increasing future sea level rise." The mid-points of the sea level rise estimates are within ±10% of those from the TAR; but the range has narrowed.

Lord Rees, the president of the Royal Society, said, "This report makes it clear, more convincingly than ever before, that human actions are writ large on the changes we are seeing, and will see, to our climate. The IPCC strongly emphasises that substantial climate change is inevitable, and we will have to adapt to this. This should compel all of us - world leaders, businesses and individuals - towards action rather than the paralysis of fear. We need both to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases and to prepare for the impacts of climate change. Those who would claim otherwise can no longer use science as a basis for their argument."^[16]

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman told a news conference that the report was "sound science" and "As the president has said, and this report makes clear, human activity is contributing to changes in our earth's climate and that issue is no longer up for debate."^[17] Kurt Volker, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, said, "We support the recent IPCC report, in which U.S. scientists played a leading role."^[18]

Based on the report, 46 countries in a "Paris Call for Action" read out by French President Chirac, have called for the creation of a United Nations Environment Organization (UNEO), which is to have more power than the current United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and is to be modelled after the more powerful World Health Organization. The 46 countries included the European Union nations, but notably did not include the United States, China, Russia, and India, the top four emitters of greenhouse gases.^[19]

Working Group II (WGII): Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Working Group II's Summary for Policymakers^[20] was released on April 6, 2007. The full report was released September 18, 2007.

WGII states that "evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases."

Observations

Some observed changes have been associated with climate change at varying levels of confidence.

With a high confidence (about an 8 in 10 chance to be correct) WGII asserts that climate change has resulted in:

• More and larger glacial lakes.
• Increasing ground instability in permafrost regions.
• Increasing rock avalanches in mountain regions.
• Changes in some Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems.
• Increased run-off and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier and snow-fed rivers.
• Changes affecting algae, plankton, fish and zooplankton because rising water temperatures and changes in:
  • ice cover
  • salinity
  • oxygen levels
  • water circulation

With a very high confidence (about a 9 in 10 chance to be correct) WGII asserts that climate change is affecting terrestrial biological systems in that:

• Spring events such as the unfolding of leaves, laying of eggs, and migration are happening earlier.
• There are poleward and upward (to higher altitude) shifts in ranges of plant and animal species.

WGII also states that the ocean has become more acidic because it has absorbed human-caused carbon dioxide. Ocean pH has dropped by 0.1, but how this affects marine life is not documented.

Attribution of changes

WGII acknowledges some of the difficulties of attributing specific changes to human-caused global warming, stating that "Limitations and gaps prevent more complete attribution of the causes of observed system responses to anthropogenic warming." but found that the agreement between observed and projected changes was "Nevertheless ... sufficient to conclude with high confidence that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems."

Projections

WGII describes some of what might be expected in the coming century, based on studies and model projections.

Fresh water

It is projected with high confidence that:

• Dry regions are projected to get drier, and wet regions are projected to get wetter: "By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics..."
• Drought-affected areas will become larger.
• Heavy precipitation events are very likely to become more common and will increase flood risk.
• Water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover will be reduced over the course of the century.

Ecosystems

It is projected with high confidence that:

• The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by a combination of climate change and other stressors.
• Carbon removal by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid-century and then weaken or reverse. This would amplify climate change.

Food

It is projected with medium confidence (about 5 in 10 chance to be correct) that globally, potential food production will increase for temperature rises of 1-3 °C, but decrease for higher temperature ranges.

Coastal systems

It is projected with very high confidence that:

• Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks such as coastal erosion due to climate change and sea-level rise.
• "Increases in sea-surface temperature of about 1-3 °C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals."
• "Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s."

Objections to original WGII language

US negotiators managed to eliminate language calling for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, according to Patricia Romero Lankao, a lead author from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The original draft read: "However, adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change, and especially not over the long run as most impacts increase in magnitude. Mitigation measures will therefore also be required." The second sentence does not appear in the final version of the report.^[21]

China objected to wording that said "based on observed evidence, there is very high confidence that many natural systems, on all continents and in most oceans, are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases." When China asked that the word "very" be stricken, three scientific authors balked, and the deadlock was broken only by a compromise to delete any reference to confidence levels.^[21]

Working Group III (WGIII): Mitigation of Climate Change

See also: Mitigation of global warming

Working Group III's Summary for Policymakers (SPM)^[22] was published on 4 May 2007 at the 26th session of the IPCC.^[23] The full WG III report was published online in September, 2007.^[24]

The IPCC convened in Bangkok on April 30 to start discussions on the draft Summary, with the participation of over 400 scientists and experts from about 120 countries.^[25] At the full IPCC meeting on May 4, agreement was reached by the larger gathering of some 2,000 delegates. One of the key debates concerned a proposal to limit concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to between 445 parts per million and 650 parts per million to avoid dangerous climate change, with pressure from developing countries to raise the lower limit. Despite this, the figures from the original proposal were incorporated into the Summary for Policymakers.^[26] The Summary concludes that stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is possible at a reasonable cost, with stabilization between 445ppm and 535ppm costing less than 3% of global GDP.^[27]

The WG III report analyses mitigation options for the main sectors in the near-term, addressing also cross-sectorial matters such as synergies, co-benefits, and trade-offs. It also provides information on long-term mitigation strategies for various stabilization levels, paying special attention to implications of different short-term strategies for achieving long-term goals. ^[28]

Mitigation in the short and medium term (until 2030)

The Summary for Policymakers concludes that there was a high level of agreement and much evidence that 'there is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decades, that could offset the projected growth of global emissions or reduce emissions below current levels',^[29] taking into account financial and social costs and benefits.^[30] The technologies with the largest economic potential within this timescale are considered to be:^[31]

Key mitigation technologies and practices by sector

Sector	Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available	Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030
Energy Supply	Improved supply and distribution efficiency; fuel switching from coal to gas; nuclear power; renewable heat and power (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of CCS (e.g. storage of removed CO2 from natural gas)	Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power; advanced renewable energy, including tidal and waves energy, concentrating solar, and solar PV.
Transport	More fuel efficient vehicles; electric vehicle; hybrid vehicles; cleaner diesel vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; non-motorised transport (cycling, walking); land-use and transport planning	Second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries
Buildings	Efficient lighting and daylighting; more efficient electrical appliances and heating and cooling devices; improved cook stoves, improved insulation; passive and active solar design for heating and cooling; alternative refrigeration fluids, recovery and recycle of fluorinated gases	Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; solar PV integrated in buildings
Industry	More efficient end-use electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling and substitution; control of non-CO2 gas emissions; and a wide array of process-specific technologies	Advanced energy efficiency; CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture; inert electrodes for aluminium manufacture
Agriculture	Improved crop and grazing land management to increase soil carbon storage; restoration of cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands; improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock and manure management to reduce CH4 emissions; improved nitrogen fertilizer application techniques to reduce N2O emissions; dedicated energy crops to replace fossil fuel use; improved energy efficiency	Improvements of crop yields
Forestry/forests	Afforestation; reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation; harvested wood product management; use of forestry products for bio-energy to replace fossil fuel use	Tree species improvement to increase biomass productivity and carbon biosequestration. Improved remote sensing technologies for analysis of vegetation/ soil carbon sequestration potential and mapping land use change
Waste	Landfill methane recovery; waste incineration with energy recovery; composting of organic waste; controlled waste water treatment; recycling and waste minimization	Biocovers and biofilters to optimize CH4 oxidation

The IPCC estimates that stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases at between 445-535ppm CO₂ equivalent would result in a reduction of average annual GDP growth rates of less than 0.12%. Stabilizing at 535 to 590ppm would reduce average annual GDP growth rates by 0.1%, while stabilization at 590 to 710ppm would reduce rates by 0.06%.^[32] There was high agreement and much evidence that a substantial fraction of these mitigation costs may be offset by benefits to health as a result of reduced air pollution, and that there would be further cost savings from other benefits such as increased energy security, increased agricultural production, and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems as well as, in certain countries, balance of trade improvements, provision of modern energy services to rural areas and employment.^[33]

The IPCC considered that achieving these reductions would require a 'large shift in the pattern of investment, although the net additional investment required ranges from negligible to 5-10%'.They also concluded that it is often more cost effective to invest in end-use energy efficiency improvement than in increasing energy supply.^[34]

In terms of electricity generation, the IPCC envisage that renewable energy can provide 30 to 35% of electricity by 2030 (up from 18% in 2005) at a carbon price of up to US$50/t, and that nuclear power can rise from 16% to 18%. They also warn that higher oil prices might lead to the exploitation of high-carbon alternatives such as oil sands, oil shales, heavy oils, and synthetic fuels from coal and gas, leading to increasing emissions, unless carbon capture and storage technologies are employed.^[35]

In the transport sector there was a medium level of agreement and evidence that the multiple mitigation options may be counteracted by increased use, and that there were many barriers and a lack of government policy frameworks.^[36]

There was high agreement and much evidence that, despite many barriers (particularly in the developing countries), new and existing buildings could reduce emissions considerably, and that this would also provide other benefits in terms of improved air quality, social welfare and energy security.^[37]

Mitigation in the long term (after 2030)

The IPCC reported that the effectiveness of mitigation efforts over the next two or three decades would have a large impact on the ability to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gases at lower levels, and that the lower the ultimate stabilization levels, the more quickly emissions would need to peak and decline.^[38] For example, to stabilize at between 445 and 490ppm (resulting in an estimate global temperature 2 to 2.4^oC above the pre-industrial average) emissions would need to peak before 2015, with 50 to 85% reductions on 2000 levels by 2050.^[39]

There was high agreement and much evidence that stabilization could be achieved by 2050 using currently available technologies, provided appropriate and effective incentives were put in place for their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion, and that barriers were removed.^[40] For stabilization at lower levels the IPCC agreed that improvements of carbon intensity need to be made much faster than has been the case in the past, and that there would be a greater need for efficient public and private research, development and demonstration efforts and investment in new technologies during the next few decades.^[41] The IPCC points out that government funding in real absolute terms for most energy research programmes has been flat or declining for nearly 20 years, and is now about half the 1980 level.^[42] Delays in cutting emissions would lead to higher stabilization levels and increase the risk of more severe climate change impacts, as more of the current high-emission technologies would have been deployed.^[43]

Among the measures that might be used, there was high agreement and much evidence that policies that put a price on the cost of carbon emissions could provide incentives for consumers and producers. Carbon prices of 5 to 65 US$/tCO₂ in 2030 and 15 to 130 US$/tCO₂ by 2050 are envisaged for stabilization at around 550 ppm by 2100.^[44]

AR4 Synthesis Report

A draft version of the AR4 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers (SPM)PDF (1.92 MB), "Subject to final copyedit", was published 16 November 2007.

The Synthesis Report goes one step further [than the first three Climate Change 2007 Working Group Reports]: it is the decisive effort to integrate and compact this wealth of information into a readable and concise document explicitly targeted to the policymakers. The Synthesis Report also brings in relevant parts some material contained in the full Working Group Reports over and above what is included in the Summary for Policymakers in these three Reports. It is designed to be a powerful, scientifically authoritative document of high policy relevance, which will be a major contribution to the discussions at the 13th Conference of the Parties in Bali during December 2007. In fact, this Conference was postponed to December to allow the IPCC Synthesis Report to come out first.

— Press conference for the release of the IPCC Synthesis Report

The six topics^[45] addressed in the Synthesis Report are:

1. Observed changes in climate and its effects (Working Groups 1-2).
2. Causes of change (WGs 1, 3).
3. Climate change and its impacts in the near and long term under different scenarios (WGs 1-3).
4. Adaptation and mitigation options and responses, and the inter-relationship with sustainable development, at global and regional levels (WGs 2-3).
5. The long term perspective: scientific and socio-economic aspects relevant to adaptation and mitigation, consistent with the objectives and provisions of the Convention [sic], and in the context of sustainable development (WGs 1-3).
6. Robust findings, key uncertainties (WGs 1-3).

The "Convention" mentioned in Topic 5 is the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The key findings from the AR4 Synthesis Report will be discussed Wednesday 13 December 2007^[46] at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 13—CMP 3) in Bali, Indonesia, which takes place 3–14 December (see UNFCCC home page^[47]).

Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible

The SPM states that "Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change."^{[citation needed]}

• "There is medium confidence that approximately 20-30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5-2.5°C (relative to 1980-1999). As global average temperature increase exceeds about 3.5°C, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of species assessed) around the globe."^{[citation needed]}

• "Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply metres of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas, with greatest effects in river deltas and low-lying islands. Such changes are projected to occur over millennial time scales, but more rapid sea level rise on century time scales cannot be excluded."^{[citation needed]}

Criticism

Main article: Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

The Fourth Assessment Report has been the subject of criticism. Skeptics of anthropogenic global warming contend that their claims are not sufficiently incorporated in the report. Others regard the IPCC as too conservative in its estimates of potential harm from climate change. The report has also been criticized for inclusion of an erroneous date for the projected demise of the Himalayan glaciers.

Related to the subject of global warming in general, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report has been discussed by various bodies such as government officials, special interest groups and scientific organizations; see the article "Politics of global warming" for a thorough discussion of the politics surrounding the phenomenon, and the positions of the various parties involved.

The United Nations appointed an independent board of scientists to "review the workings of the world’s top climate science panel" which reported in September 2010;^[48] see Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change#InterAcademy Council review.

See also

Energy portal

• Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
• Individual and political action on climate change
• Business action on climate change
• Energy policy
• Energy conservation
• Global climate model
• Post–Kyoto Protocol negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions
• Precautionary principle
• Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
• Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
• World energy resources and consumption

Notes

1. ^ IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
2. ^ IPCC AR4 WG2 2007.
3. ^ IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
4. ^ IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
5. ^ according to: Canadian Institute for Climate Studies, CCIS project: Frequently Asked Questions ; Table 4- 2: Overview of SRES scenario quantifications, in IPCC SRES 2000; Figure 2.11: Schematic illustration of SRES scenarios, in the Third AR?? (That's the url: ipcc_tar.)^{[citation needed]}
6. ^ IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
7. ^ IPCC website: Summary Description of the IPCC Process.
8. ^ IPCC adopts major assessment of climate change science
9. ^ SPM: Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change, p. 5, and figure SPM.3, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
10. ^ SPM: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, p. 10, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
11. ^ SPM: footnote 6, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
12. ^ ^{a b} "... a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, ... but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives."^{[citation needed]}
13. ^ ^{a b} "... a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. ... technological emphasis: fossil intensive"^{[citation needed]}
14. ^ This contrasts with the TAR, which included these ice dynamics, and had a higher top end sea level rise estimate. The report states that recent observations suggest that ice flow dynamics could lead to additional rise: "Dynamical processes related to ice flow not included in current models but suggested by recent observations could increase the vulnerability of the ice sheets to warming, increasing future sea level rise. Understanding of these processes is limited and there is no consensus on their magnitude."^{[citation needed]}
15. ^ Table SPM.3, p. 13, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
16. ^ "UK scientists' IPCC reaction". BBC News. 2007-02-02. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6324093.stm. 
17. ^ Duray, Dan (2007-02-03). "Bush endorses climate study". Monterey County Herald. http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/montereyherald/living/health/16614710.htm. 
18. ^ Post-Kyoto Surprise: America's Quiet Efforts to Cut Greenhouse Gases Are Producing Results
19. ^ Doyle, Alister (2007-02-03). "46 nations call for tougher U.N. environment role". Reuters. http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=environment&storyID=2007-02-03T144510Z_01_L03357553_RTRIDST_0_DCBRIGHTS-GLOBALWARMING-APPEAL-DC.XML. 
20. ^ See on-line: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers. Or pdf.
21. ^ ^{a b} Eilperin, Juliet (2007-04-07). "U.S., China Got Climate Warnings Toned Down". The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/06/AR2007040600291.html. Retrieved 2007-04-09. 
22. ^ See on-line: Mitigation of Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers.
23. ^ "IPCC meetings in 2007". IPCC. Archived from the original on 2007-04-15. http://web.archive.org/web/20070415113532/http://www.ipcc.ch/calendar2007.htm. Retrieved 2007-05-01. 
24. ^ "IPCC AR4 Working Group III Final Report". IPCC. 2007-09. Archived from the original on 2007-08-11. http://web.archive.org/web/20070811210811/http://www.mnp.nl/ipcc/pages_media/AR4-chapters.html. Retrieved 2007-09-12. ^{[citation needed]}
25. ^ "Bangkok hosts key climate summit". BBC. 2007-04-30. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6606465.stm. Retrieved 2007-05-01. 
26. ^ "Deal reached on climate change report". CNN. 2007-05-04. http://edition.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/05/03/climate.report.ap/index.html?eref=rss_world. Retrieved 2007-05-04. ^{[dead link]}
27. ^ "Climate change 'can be tackled'". BBC. 2007-05-04. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6620909.stm. Retrieved 2007-05-04. 
28. ^ IPCC. Principles Governing IPCC WorkPDF (8.38 KB)
29. ^ SPM (Summary for Policymakers), in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007, item 5, p. 11.
30. ^ SPM, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007, Box SPM 2, p. 10.
31. ^ SPM, Table SPM 3, p. 14, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
32. ^ SPM, Table SPM4, p. 16, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
33. ^ SPM, item 30, p. 17, and item 10, p. 18, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
34. ^ SPM, items 15, 20, & 25, p. 18, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
35. ^ SPM, items 25, 30, & 35, p. 18, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
36. ^ SPM, item 11, p. 19, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
37. ^ SPM, item 12, p. 19, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
38. ^ SPM, item 18, p. 22, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
39. ^ SPM, Table SPM.5, p. 23, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
40. ^ SPM, item 19, p. 25, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
41. ^ SPM, item 25, p. 25, and item 5, p. 26, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
42. ^ SPM, item 10, p. 32, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
43. ^ SPM, item 10, p. 28, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
44. ^ SPM, items 23 & 25, p. 29, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
45. ^ AR4 Synthesis Report - Outline of Topics
46. ^ "IPCC home page". http://www.ipcc.ch. Retrieved 2007-11-17. 
47. ^ "UNFCCC home page". http://unfccc.int/2860.php. Retrieved 2007-11-17. 
48. ^ "Independent Board to Review Work of Top Climate Panel". New York Times. 27 February 2010. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/27/science/earth/27climate.html?src=twt&twt=nytimesscience. Retrieved 28 February 2010. 

References

The Fourth Assessment Report consists of the following reports from each of the three Working Groups, and a Synthesis Report. Additional reports and documents can be found at the IPCC's documents web page.

• IPCC AR4 WG1 (2007), Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K.B.; Tignor, M.; and Miller, H.L., ed., Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html  (pb: 978-0-521-70596-7).

• IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007), Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E., ed., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html  (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4).

• IPCC AR4 WG3 (2007), Metz, B.; Davidson, O.R.; Bosch, P.R.; Dave, R.; and Meyer, L.A., ed., Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html  (pb: 978-0-521-70598-1).

• IPCC AR4 SYR (2007), Core Writing Team; Pachauri, R.K; and Reisinger, A., ed., Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, ISBN 92-9169-122-4, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/contents.html .

• IPCC SRES (2000), Nakićenović, N., and Swart, R., ed. (book), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0-521-80081-1, http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Fsr/?src=/climate/ipcc/emission/ , 978-052180081-5 (pb: 0-521-80493-0, 978-052180493-6).

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Other sources referenced in this article:

See Notes, above.

External links

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change home page
• Ten-webpage summary of the Fourth Assessment Report SPMs by GreenFacts; the webpages as a self-contained 39-page documentPDF (1.04 MB)
• Commentary on the Working Group I Report:
  • The Guardian Article on US political pressure on WGI Report, 27 January 2007
  • UNEP.org Press release: Evidence of Human-caused Global Warming “Unequivocal”, says IPCC, 2 February 2007
  • RealClimate blog — Commentary on Working Group I Summary for Policymakers, 2 February 2007
• Videos:
  • From Science to Assessment: Overview of the IPCC AR4 Working Group I Report. A lecture given at Princeton University by Ronald Stouffer, Senior Research Meteorologist, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), 11 March 2008
  • Lessons from the Climate Wars: The Future of the IPCC. A lecture given at Princeton University by Gary Yohe, Woodhouse/Sysco Professor of economics at Wesleyan University and Director of the John E. Andrus Public Affairs Center at Wesleyan, 7 May 2008
  • Emissions Mitigation and Climate Stabilization. A lecture given at Princeton University by Jae Edmonds, Chief Scientist, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 22 April 2008
  • How Would Climate Change Influence Society in the 21st Century? A lecture given at MIT by Rajendra Pachauri, 29 January 2008