- Paleotempestology
Paleotempestology is the study of past
tropical cyclone activity by means of geological proxies as well as historical documentary records. The term was coined byKerry Emanuel .Methods
edimentary proxy records
Examples of proxies include overwash deposits preserved in the
sediments of coastal lakes and marshes,microfossils such as foraminifera, pollen, diatoms, dinoflagellates, phytoliths contained in coastal sediments, wave-generated or flood-generated sedimentary structures or deposits (called tempestites) in marine or lagoonal sediments, storm wave deposited coral shingle, shell, sand and shell and pure sand shore parallel ridges.The method of using overwash deposits preserved in coastal lake and marsh sediments is adopted from earlier studies of paleotsunami deposits. Both storms and tsunamis leave very similar if not identical sedimentary deposits in coastal lakes and marshes and differentiating between the two in a sedimentary record can be difficult. The first studies to examine prehistoric records of tropical cyclones occurred in Australia and the South Pacific during the late 1970s and early 1980s.cite journal |last=Baines |first=G. B. K. |authorlink= |coauthors=McLean, R. F. |year=1976 |month= |title=Sequential studies of hurricane deposit evolution at Funafuti Atoll |journal=Marine Geology |volume=21 |issue= |pages=M1–M8 |id= |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] cite journal |last=Rhodes |first=E. G. |authorlink= |coauthors=Polach, H. A.; Thom, B. G.; Wilson, S. R. |year=1980 |month= |title=Age structure of Holocene coastal sediments, Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia |journal=Radiocarbon |volume=22 |issue= |pages=718–727 |id= |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] cite journal |last=Chappell |first=J. |authorlink= |coauthors=Chivas, A; Rhodes, E.; Wallensky, E. |year=1983 |month= |title=Holocene palaeo-environmental changes, central to north Great Barrier Reef inner zone |journal=BMR Journal of Australian Geology and Geophysics |volume=8 |issue= |pages=223–235 |id= |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] These studies examined multiple shore parallel ridges of coral shingle or sand and marine shells. As many as 50 ridges can be deposited at a site with each representing a past severe
tropical cyclone over the previous 6,000 years. Tsunamis are not known to deposit multiple sedimentary ridges and therefore these features can be more easily attributed to a past storm at any given site.Coastal sedimentary analyses have been done at the U.S. Gulf coast,cite conference |first=Kam-biu |last=Liu |authorlink= |coauthors= |title=Millennial-scale variability in catastrophic hurricane landfalls along the Gulf of Mexico coast |conference=23d Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology |pages= |publisher=Amer. Meteor. Soc. |date=1999 |location=Dallas, TX |url= |pages=374–377 |id= ] cite journal |last=Liu |first=Kam-biu |authorlink= |coauthors=Fearn, Miriam L. |year=2000 |month= |title=Reconstruction of Prehistoric Landfall Frequencies of Catastrophic Hurricanes in Northwestern Florida from Lake Sediment Records |journal=Quaternary Research |volume=54 |issue=2 |pages=238–245 |doi=10.1006/qres.2000.2166 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] the Atlantic coast from South Carolinacite journal |last=Scott |first=D. B. |authorlink= |coauthors="et al." |year=2003 |month= |title=Records of prehistoric hurricanes on the South Carolina coast based on micropaleontological and sedimentological evidence, with comparison to other Atlantic Coast records |journal=Geological Society of America Bulletin |volume=115 |issue=9 |pages=1027–1039 |doi=10.1130/B25011.1 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] up to New Jerseycite journal |last=Donnelly |first=Jeffrey P. |authorlink= |coauthors="et al." |year=2001 |month= |title=Sedimentary evidence of intense hurricane strikes from New Jersey |journal=Geology |volume=29 |issue=7 |pages=615–618 |doi=10.1130/0091-7613(2001)029<0615:SEOIHS>2.0.CO;2 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] cite journal |last=Donnelly |first=Jeffrey P. |authorlink= |coauthors="et al." |year=2004 |month= |title=A backbarrier overwash record of intense storms from Brigantine, New Jersey |journal=Marine Geology |volume=210 |issue=1–4 |pages=107–121 |doi=10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.005 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] and New England,cite journal |last=Donnelly |first=Jeffrey P. |authorlink= |coauthors="et al." |year=2001 |month= |title=700 yr Sedimentary Record of Intense Hurricane Landfalls in Southern New England |journal=Geological Society of America Bulletin |volume=113 |issue=6 |pages=714–727 |doi= |url=http://www.geo.brown.edu/georesearch/esh/QE/Publications/GSAB2001/JDonnelly/Succotash/Succotash.htm |accessdate= |quote= ] and the Carribean sea.cite journal |last=Donnelly |first=J. P. |authorlink= |coauthors=Woodruff, J. D. |year=2007 |month= |title=Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Niño and the West African monsoon |journal=Nature |volume=447 |issue=7143 |pages=465–468 |doi=10.1038/nature05834 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] cite journal |last=McCloskey |first=T. A. |authorlink= |coauthors=Keller, G. |year=2008 |month= |title=5000 year sedimentary record of hurricane strikes on the central coast of Belize |journal=Quaternary International |volume=Forthcoming |issue= |pages= |doi=10.1016/j.quaint.2008.03.003 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] Also, studies on pre-historic tropical cyclones hitting Australia have been made.cite journal |last=Nott |first=Jonathan |authorlink= |coauthors=Hayne, Matthew |year=2001 |month= |title=High frequency of 'super-cyclones' along the Great Barrier Reef over the past 5,000 years |journal=Nature |volume=413 |issue=6855 |pages=508–512 |doi=10.1038/35097055 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] cite journal |last=Nott |first=Jonathan |authorlink= |coauthors=Haig, Jordahna; Neil, Helen; Gillieson, David |year=2007 |month= |title=Greater frequency variability of landfalling tropical cyclones at centennial compared to seasonal and decadal scales |journal=Earth and Planetary Science Letters |volume=255 |issue=3–4 |pages=367–372 |doi=10.1016/j.epsl.2006.12.023 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] A study covering the South China Sea coast is soon to be published. [cite journal |last=Yu |first=Ke-Fu |authorlink= |coauthors="et al." |year=2008 |month= |title=Reconstruction of storm/tsunami records over the last 4000 years using transported coral blocks and lagoon sediments in the southern South China Sea |journal=Quaternary International |volume=Forthcoming |issue= |pages= |doi=10.1016/j.quaint.2008.05.004 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ]
Markers in coral
Rocks contain certain isotopes of elements, known as natural tracers, which describe the conditions under which they formed. By studying the calcium carbonate in coral rock, past sea surface temperature and hurricane information can be revealed. Lighter oxygen isotopes (18O) are left behind in coral during periods of very heavy rainfall. [Nobu Shimizu. [http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/viewArticle.do?id=2437 If Rocks Could Talk...] Retrieved on
2006-12-09 .] Since hurricanes are the main source of extreme rainfall in the tropical oceans, past hurricane events can be dated to the days of their impact on the coral by looking at the increased 18O concentration within the coral. [Anne L. Cohen and Graham D. Layne. [http://web.mit.edu/mit-whoi/www/research/mgg/coral_hurricane_signature.html Seeking a hurricane signature in coral skeleton.] Retrieved on2006-12-09 .]peleothems and tree rings
Isotope studies in speleothems and tree rings offers a means by which higher resolution records of long-term tropical cyclone histories can be attained. [cite journal |last=Miller |first=Dana L. |authorlink= |coauthors="et al." |year=2006 |month= |title=Tree-ring isotope records of tropical cyclone activity |journal=PNAS |volume=103 |issue=39 |pages=14294–14297 |doi=10.1073/pnas.0606549103 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ] Unlike the isotope records, the sedimentary records are too coarse in their resolution to register quasi-cyclic activity at decadal to centennial scales. These higher resolution records therefore offer a means for possibly differentiating between the natural variability of tropical cyclone behaviour and the effects of anthropogenically induced global climate change. Recent studies with stalagmites in
Belize shows that events can be determined on a week-by-week basis.cite journal |last=Frappier |first=Amy Benoit |authorlink= |coauthors=Sahagian, Dork; Carpenter, Scott J.; González, Luis A.; Frappier Brian R. |year=2007 |month= |title=Stalagmite stable isotope record of recent tropical cyclone events |journal=Geology |volume=35 |issue=2 |pages=111–114 |doi=10.1130/G23145A.1 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ]Historical records
Before the invention of the
telegraph in the early to mid 19th century, news was as fast as the quickest horse, stage, or ship. Normally, there was no advance warning of a tropical cyclone impact. However, the situation changed in the 19th century as sea-faring people and land-based researchers, such as Father Viñes inCuba , came up with systematic methods of reading the sky's appearance or the sea state, which could foretell a tropical cyclone's approach up to a couple days in advance.Michael Chenoweth used 18th century journals to reconstruct the climate of Jamaica.cite book |title=The 18th century climate of Jamaica derived from the journals of Thomas Thistlewood, 1750-1786 |last=Chenoweth |first=Michael |authorlink= |coauthors= |year=2003 |series=Transactions of the American Philosophical Society |volume=93 |publisher=American Philosophical Society |location=Philadelphia |isbn=087169932X |pages= ]
In
China , the abundance of historical documentary records in the form of " _zh. Fang Zhi" (semiofficial local gazettes) offers an extraordinary opportunity for providing a high-resolution historical dataset for the frequency of typhoon strikes.cite journal |author=Kam-biu Liu; Caiming Shen; Kin-sheun Louie |year=2001 |month= |title=A 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, Reconstructed from Chinese Historical Documentary Records |journal=Annals of the Association of American Geographers |volume=91 |issue=3 |pages=453–464 |doi=10.1111/0004-5608.00253 |url= |accessdate= |quote= ]ee also
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Tropical cyclone
*Tropical cyclone observation References
Further reading
*cite book |title=Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society |last=Elsner |first=James B. |authorlink= |coauthors=Kara, A. Birol |year=1999 |publisher=Oxford University Press |location=New York |isbn=0195125088 |pages=pp. 49–51, 378
*cite book |chapter=Paleotempestology: Principles, Methods, and Examples from Gulf Coast Lake Sediments |title=Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future |last=Liu |first=Kam-biu |authorlink= |editor=Murnane, R. J.; Liu, Kam-biu (eds.) |year=2004 |publisher=Columbia University Press |location=New York |isbn=0231123884 |pages=13–57
*cite encyclopedia |last=Liu |first=Kam-biu |editor=Elias, Scott A. |encyclopedia=Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science |title=Paleotempestology |url= |edition= |date= |year=2007 |month= |publisher=Elsevier |volume=3 |location=Amsterdam |isbn=9780444519221 |pages=1978–1986 |quote=
*cite journal |last=Nott |first=Jonathan |authorlink= |coauthors= |year=2004 |month= |title=Palaeotempestology: the study of prehistoric tropical cyclones—a review and implications for hazard assessment |journal=Environment International |volume=30 |issue=3 |pages=433–447 |doi=10.1016/j.envint.2003.09.010 |url= |accessdate= |quote=
*cite news |first=Andrew C. |last=Revkin |authorlink= |coauthors= |title=Experts Unearth a Stormy Past |url=http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9A00E7DD113AF937A15754C0A9679C8B63 |work=New York Times |publisher= |date=July 24, 2001 |accessdate=External links
* [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/hurricane/ Paleotempestology Resource Center]
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