- New South Wales state election, 2011
-
New South Wales state election, 2011 
2007 ← 26 March 2011 → 2015 All 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the New South Wales Legislative CouncilFirst party Second party 
Leader Barry O'Farrell Kristina Keneally Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Leader since 4 April 2007 4 December 2009 Leader's seat Ku-ring-gai Heffron Last election 35 seats 52 seats Seats won 69 seats 20 seats Seat change 
34
32Popular vote 64.22% 35.78% Percentage 51.14% 25.55% Swing 14.16%13.43%
Premier before election
Premier after election
Barry O'Farrell
Liberal/National coalitionElections to the 55th Parliament of New South Wales were held on Saturday, 26 March 2011. The 16-year incumbent Australian Labor Party government led by Premier Kristina Keneally was defeated in a landslide by the Liberal-National coalition opposition led by Barry O'Farrell.
New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).
Contents
Results
Lower house
For current pendulum, see Post-election pendulum for the New South Wales state election, 2011.New South Wales state election, 26 March 2011[1][2][3]
Legislative Assembly
<< 2007 — 2015 >>Enrolled Voters 4,635,810 Votes Cast 4,290,595 Turnout 92.55% –0.09% Informal Votes 137,260 Informal 3.30% +0.53% Summary of votes by party Party Primary Votes % Swing Seats Change Liberal 1,602,457 38.58 +11.64 51 +29 Labor 1,061,352 25.55 –13.43 20 –32 National 521,864 12.56 +2.51 18 +5 Greens 427,144 10.28 +1.33 1 +1 Independent 367,493 8.84 -0.34 3 –3 Christian Democrats 129,431 3.12 +0.65 0 0 Family First 18,576 0.45 +0.45 0 0 Other 25,018 0.60 0 0 Total 4,153,335 93 Two-Party Preferred Coalition 2,324,226 64.22 +16.48 Labor 1,294,824 35.78 –16.48 Upper house
Legislative Council election, 2011[4][5][6] Party Votes % won Swing 2011 seats 2007 seats Total seats Change Liberal/National Coalition 1,943,246 47.7 ↑13.5 11 8 19 ↑4 Australian Labor Party 967,242 23.7 ↓15.4 5 9 14 ↓5 Australian Greens 453,125 11.1 ↑2.0 3 2 5 ↑1 Shooters and Fishers Party 150,741 3.7 ↑0.9 1 1 2 0 Christian Democratic Party 127,233 3.1 ↓1.3 1 1 2 0 Other 434,437 10.7 ↑0.3 0 0 0 0 Total 4,076,024 21 21 42 Seats changing hands
Seat Pre-2011 Swing Post-2011 Party Member Margin Margin Member Party Balmain Labor Verity Firth 3.7 -7.2 3.5* Jamie Parker Greens Bathurst Labor Gerard Martin 13.0 -36.7 23.7 Paul Toole National Blue Mountains Labor Phil Koperberg 11.1 -15.8 4.7 Roza Sage Liberal Camden Labor Geoff Corrigan 3.9 -22.8 18.9 Chris Patterson Liberal Campbelltown Labor Graham West 18.5 -21.9 3.4 Bryan Doyle Liberal Charlestown Labor Matthew Morris 14.6 -24.5 9.9 Andrew Cornwell Liberal Coogee Labor Paul Pearce 7.2 -15.4 8.2 Bruce Notley-Smith Liberal Dubbo Independent Dawn Fardell 0.9 -14.6 13.7 Troy Grant National Drummoyne Labor Angela D'Amore 7.6 -24.3 16.7 John Sidoti Liberal East Hills Labor Alan Ashton 14.1 -14.7 0.6 Glenn Brookes Liberal Gosford Labor Marie Andrews 4.9 -16.7 11.9 Chris Holstein Liberal Granville Labor David Borger 11.1 -13.7 2.6 Tony Issa Liberal Heathcote Labor Paul McLeay 8.8 -21.4 12.7 Lee Evans Liberal Kiama Labor Matt Brown 12.0 -19.5 7.5 Gareth Ward Liberal Londonderry Labor Allan Shearan 6.9 -19.2 12.3 Bart Bassett Liberal Maitland Labor Frank Terenzini 9.7 -16.0 6.3 Robyn Parker Liberal Menai Labor Alison Megarrity 2.7 -27.1 24.4 Melanie Gibbons Liberal Miranda Labor Barry Collier 0.8 -21.8 21.0 Graham Annesley Liberal Monaro Labor Steve Whan 6.3 -8.3 2.0 John Barilaro National Mulgoa Labor Diane Beamer 11.1 -23.2 12.0 Tanya Davies Liberal Newcastle Labor Jodi McKay 1.2 -3.6 2.4 Tim Owen Liberal Oatley Labor Kevin Greene 14.4 -14.9 0.5 Mark Coure Liberal Parramatta Labor Tanya Gadiel 13.7 -25.8 12.1 Geoff Lee Liberal Port Macquarie Independent Peter Besseling 28.2** -35.1 6.9 Leslie Williams National Riverstone Labor John Aquilina 10.1 -30.3 20.2 Kevin Conolly Liberal Rockdale Labor Frank Sartor 10.3 -13.9 3.6 John Flowers Liberal Smithfield Labor Ninos Khoshaba 15.5 -20.3 4.8 Andrew Rohan Liberal Strathfield Labor Virginia Judge 15.1 -19.3 4.3 Charles Casuscelli Liberal Swansea Labor Robert Coombs 10.8 -11.9 1.1 Garry Edwards Liberal Tamworth Independent Peter Draper 4.8 -12.5 7.8 Kevin Anderson National The Entrance Labor Grant McBride 4.9 -17.3 12.5 Chris Spence Liberal Wollondilly Labor Phil Costa 3.3 -18.0 14.7 Jai Rowell Liberal Wyong Labor David Harris 6.9 -9.4 2.5 Darren Webber Liberal - *Figure is Greens vs Liberal
- **Figure is from the 2007 state election, where Rob Oakeshott was the independent candidate.
- In addition, the Liberals retained Ryde and Penrith, which were gained from Labor at by-elections.
- Members in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
Background
See also: Post-election pendulum for the New South Wales state election, 2007
New South Wales regional electorates by party prior to the election.
New South Wales metropolitan electorates by party prior to the election.The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Kristina Keneally, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Barry O'Farrell, are the two main parties in New South Wales. In the 2007 state election, of 93 seats total, Labor won 52 seats, the Liberals won 22 seats and the Nationals, led by Andrew Stoner, who are in coalition with the Liberals, won 13 seats. Six seats were retained by independents. Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2007 include The Greens and the Christian Democratic Party.
On 18 October 2008, four state electorates (Lakemba, Ryde, Cabramatta, Port Macquarie) went to by-elections as a result the resignation of the Premier, two of his ministers, and an independent who left after winning a federal by-election. The results in Ryde, Cabramatta, and Lakemba showed the largest by-election swing against Labor in its history.[7] The results showed a significant swing towards the Liberal Party with a swing of 22.7 percentage points in former health minister Reba Meagher's seat of Cabramatta, but was retained by ALP candidate Nick Lalich,[7] and a swing of 13 points against Labor in former premier Morris Iemma's seat of Lakemba, also retained by an ALP candidate, Robert Furolo.[7] Ryde, once a safe Labor seat, with a swing of 23.1 points delivered former deputy premier John Watkins' seat to Victor Dominello. Peter Besseling, the independent candidate, won Port Macquarie, left vacant after the resignation of Nationals-turned-independent member Robert Oakeshott, over the Nationals by a two-party-preferred margin of 54.5% to 45.5%, despite a swing of 23.7 percentage points to the Nationals. On 19 June 2010 a by-election in the electoral district of Penrith[8] was triggered as a result of the resignation of Labor Party MP Karyn Paluzzano, with Liberal candodate Stuart Ayres winning the seat with a two-party-preferred swing of more than 25 points, the biggest swing against an incumbent government in New South Wales history.[9]
Key Dates
New South Wales metropolitan electorates by party after the election.- Expiry of 54th Parliament: 12am on Friday, 4 March 2011
- Issue of Writs: 5 March 2011
- Close of Nominations: 10 March 2011
- Polling Day: Saturday 26 March 2011
- Return of the Writs: 30 April 2011[10]
- Meeting of 55th Parliament: By Monday, 16 May 2011
Campaign
See also: Candidates of the New South Wales state election, 2011The Labor Party launched their campaign on 5 February 2011[11] in Liverpool within the electoral district of Macquarie Fields.[12] Premier Keneally launched the Labor Party's campaign slogan "Protecting jobs - Supporting families". In attendance for the launch were former Prime Minister Bob Hawke and former Premiers Wran and Carr.
The Liberal and Nationals Coalition launched their campaign on 20 February 2011 at the Joan Sutherland Performing Arts Centre in Penrith within the electoral district of Penrith with the slogan: "Real Change for NSW". In attendance for the launch were both Liberal and Nationals Leaders O'Farrell and Stoner as well as federal Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott, former Liberal Premiers and Leaders Lewis, Greiner, Fahey, and Chikarovski.[13]
The Coalition were unbackable favourites throughout the campaign to win the election. The final Newspoll had support for Labor at an all time low with 23 percent of the primary vote and 35.9 percent of the two-party vote. Bookmakers were paying $1.01 for a Coalition win with Labor getting as much as $36 and one agency even paid out the winnings and declared the winner a week earlier.[14] However, Labor was widely predicted to win as few as 13 seats, seven less than the actual result.[15]
Resulting parliament
The Liberal/National Coalition won the largest proportional number of seats in NSW state history with 69 of 93 seats in the lower house – in contrast, Labor won 69 of 99 seats at the 1981 election. Labor won 20 seats, the lowest for Labor in NSW Parliament in over a century. Many prominent Labor MPs and ministers lost their seats including Verity Firth, David Borger, Matt Brown, Jodi McKay, Virginia Judge, Phil Costa and Kevin Greene.[16]
In the upper house however, where half of the chamber was up for election, the landslide was not enough to deliver a Coalition majority. Three additional votes outside of the Liberal/National Coalition will be required to pass legislation. The balance of power is expected to shift from the Greens to the Shooters and Fishers Party and Christian Democratic Party. With two seats each held by the latter two parties, both will need to give legislative support if Labor and the Greens oppose legislation.[4][5]
Retiring members
Where a Member of the Legislative Assembly or Legislative Council does not renominate to contest the election, their term will end at the dissolution of the parliament. Members who have confirmed their retirement are:
Legislative Assembly
Labor (22)
- Marie Andrews (Gosford)
- John Aquilina (Riverstone)
- Diane Beamer (Mulgoa)
- David Campbell (Keira)
- Barry Collier (Miranda)
- Angela D'Amore (Drummoyne)
- Tanya Gadiel (Parramatta)
- Paul Gibson (Blacktown)
- Kerry Hickey (Cessnock)
- Phil Koperberg (Blue Mountains)
- Grant McBride (The Entrance)
- Gerard Martin (Bathurst)
- Lylea McMahon (Shellharbour)
- Alison Megarrity (Menai)
- Frank Sartor (Rockdale)
- Tony Stewart (Bankstown)
- Joe Tripodi (Fairfield)
- Graham West (Campbelltown)
Liberal (5)
- Peter Debnam (Vaucluse)
- Judy Hopwood (Hornsby)
- Malcolm Kerr (Cronulla)
- Wayne Merton (Baulkham Hills)
- Michael Richardson (Castle Hill)
Nationals (2)
Legislative Council
Labor (4)
Greens (1)
Polling
Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes consist of around 1200–1300 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.
Better Premier ratings Date Labor
KeneallyLiberal
O'FarrellUncommitted 2011 election – – – 21–24 Mar 2011 32% 48% 20% 9–11 Mar 2011 35% 48% 17% Jan–Feb 2011 32% 47% 21% Nov–Dec 2010 35% 40% 25% Sep–Oct 2010 35% 42% 23% Jul–Aug 2010 39% 39% 22% May–Jun 2010 44% 36% 20% Mar–Apr 2010 45% 30% 25% Jan–Feb 2010 40% 31% 29% Nov–Dec 2009 35% 34% 31% Sep–Oct 2009 31%3 36% 33% Jul–Aug 2009 32%3 33% 35% May–Jun 2009 33%3 32% 35% Mar–Apr 2009 33%3 31% 36% Jan–Feb 2009 34%3 29% 37% Nov–Dec 2008 30%3 33% 37% Sep–Oct 2008 35%3 28% 37% Jul–Aug 2008 32%1 39% 29% May–Jun 2008 32%1 39% 29% Mar–Apr 2008 36%1 33% 31% Jan–Mar 2008 37%1 30% 33% 2007 election – – – 21–22 Mar 2007 58%1 24%2 18% Jan–Feb 2007 48%1 19%2 33% Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
1 Morris Iemma, 2 Peter Debnam 3 Nathan ReesLegislative Assembly opinion polling Primary vote 2PP vote Date ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP 2011 election 25.6% 38.6% 12.6% 10.3% 13.0% 35.8% 64.2% 21–24 Mar 2011 23% 41% 9% 12% 15% 35.9% 64.1% 9–11 Mar 2011 26% 43% 7% 11% 13% 37% 63% Jan–Feb 2011 23% 40% 6% 17% 14% 38% 62% Nov–Dec 2010 24% 40% 5% 15% 16% 39% 61% Sep–Oct 2010 23% 41% 5% 17% 14% 37% 63% Jul–Aug 2010 25% 41% 5% 14% 15% 39% 61% May–Jun 2010 25% 41% 5% 16% 12% 39% 61% Mar– Apr 2010 31% 37% 5% 14% 13% 45% 55% Jan–Feb 2010 30% 39% 3% 12% 14% 43% 57% Nov–Dec 2009 26% 39% 5% 17% 13% 41% 59% Sep–Oct 2009 30% 36% 6% 12% 16% 45% 55% Jul–Aug 2009 32% 37% 4% 14% 13% 46% 54% May–Jun 2009 31% 36% 5% 14% 14% 45% 55% Mar–Apr 2009 33% 36% 4% 13% 14% 47% 53% Jan–Feb 2009 30% 38% 4% 15% 13% 44% 56% Nov–Dec 2008 26% 38% 5% 14% 17% 41% 59% Sep – Oct 2008 29% 38% 4% 11% 18% 44% 56% Jul–Aug 2008 33% 36% 4% 13% 14% 48% 52% May–Jun 2008 32% 36% 5% 13% 14% 48% 52% Mar–Apr 2008 35% 35% 3% 14% 13% 51% 49% Jan–Mar 2008 34% 34% 5% 14% 13% 50% 50% 2007 election 39.0% 26.9% 10.1% 9.0% 15.0% 52.3% 47.7% 21–22 Mar 2007 42% 29% 6% 6% 17% 56.5% 43.5% Jan–Feb 2007 45% 28% 5% 7% 15% 59% 41% Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. Newspaper endorsements
Newspaper Endorsement The Australian Liberal[17] The Australian Financial Review Liberal Newcastle Herald Liberal The Daily Telegraph Liberal[18] The Sydney Morning Herald Liberal[19] See also
- New South Wales Government
- New South Wales Ministry
- New South Wales Shadow Ministry
- Post-election pendulum for the New South Wales state election, 2007
References
- ^ "Summary, NSW election 2011". ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). 27 March 2011 05:23 AEDT. http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
- ^ "Party totals, NSW election 2011". ABC. 2010-07-29. http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/guide/parties.htm. Retrieved 2011-04-16.
- ^ "Virtual Tally Room 2011: NSWEC". Vtr.elections.nsw.gov.au. 2011-03-26. http://vtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/Vtrhome.htm. Retrieved 2011-04-16.
- ^ a b "Legislative Council, NSW election 2011". ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). 27 March 2011 05:23 AEDT. http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/guide/lc-results.htm. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
- ^ a b "Upper House shift from left to right". ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). 27 March 2011 17:00 AEDT. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/27/3174945.htm. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
- ^ "Pauline Hanson fails to win seat in NSW: SMH 12 April 2011". News.smh.com.au. 2011-04-12. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/pauline-hanson-fails-to-win-seat-in-nsw-20110412-1dbvl.html. Retrieved 2011-04-16.
- ^ a b c "A turning point for the Libs". The Daily Telegraph (News Limited). 20 October 2008. http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24520701-5001021,00.html. Retrieved 20 May 2009.
- ^ "Liar Paluzzano resigns from parliament". The Daily Telegraph. AAP (News Limited). 7 May 2010. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/liar-paluzzano-resigns-from-parliament/story-e6freuy9-1225863519405. Retrieved 8 May 2010.
- ^ "Libs claim victory in Penrith". The Sydney Morning Herald. AAP (Fairfax Media). 19 June 2010. http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/libs-claim-victory-in-penrith-20100619-ynk2.html. Retrieved 19 June 2010.
- ^ "Writs of Elections". Government Gazette. Government of New South Wales. 5 March 2011. http://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/No_25_of_2011_0.pdf. Retrieved 24 March 2011.
- ^ Nicholls, Sean (4 February 2011). "NSW election campaign launch: Labor beats Coalition to the punch". The Sydney Morning Herald (Fairfax Media). http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-election-campaign-launch-labor-beats-coalition-to-the-punch-20110204-1afy6.html. Retrieved 20 February 2011.
- ^ Salusinszky, Imre (12 February 2011). "Labor election strategy already failing the test". The Australian (News Limited). http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/labor-election-strategy-already-failing-the-test/story-e6frgczx-1226004319541. Retrieved 20 February 2011.
- ^ . http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sunday-telegraph/abbott-kicks-off-nsw-election-campaign/story-e6frewt0-1226008960995. Retrieved 20 February 2011.
- ^ "Labor steels itself for disaster with day to go". The Sydney Morning Herald (Fairfax Media). 25 March 2011. http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/labor-steels-itself-for-disaster-with-day-to-go-20110325-1c94z.html. Retrieved 25 March 2011.
- ^ "NSW Labor may only win 13 seats: ABC PM 25 March 2011". Abc.net.au. 2011-03-25. http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2011/s3174126.htm. Retrieved 2011-04-16.
- ^ "Avoid scandals, O'Farrell tells his MPs". News.smh.com.au. 2011-03-30. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/avoid-scandals-ofarrell-tells-his-mps-20110330-1cfam.html. Retrieved 2011-04-16.
- ^ "NSW must emerge from Labor's heart of darkness". The Australian (News Limited). 25 March 2011. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/nsw-must-emerge-from-labors-heart-of-darkness/story-e6frg71x-1226027673435. Retrieved 2011-03-28.
- ^ "It's time for a state cleanout". The Daily Telegraph (News Limited). 25 March 2011. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/its-time-for-a-state-cleanout/story-e6frezz0-1226027642550. Retrieved 2011-03-28.
- ^ "NSW is overdue for change and renewal". The Sydney Morning Herald (Fairfax Media). 25 March 2011. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/editorial/nsw-is-overdue-for-change-and-renewal-20110324-1c8fd.html. Retrieved 2011-03-28.
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