Victorian state election, 2014

Victorian state election, 2014

2010 ← 29 November 2014

Leader Ted Baillieu Daniel Andrews Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Leader since 8 May 2006 3 December 2010 Leader's seat Hawthorn Mulgrave Last election 45 seats 43 seats Seats needed 0 2 2PP @ 2010 51.58% 48.42%

Incumbent Premier Ted Baillieu Liberal/National coalition

The next Victorian state election is scheduled for 29 November 2014. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition government, currently led by Premier Ted Baillieu, will be challenged by the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition, currently led by Daniel Andrews.

Victoria has compulsory voting and uses preferential ballot in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).

Date

Terms are fixed at four years unless constitutionally dissolved earlier by the Governor. The election will occur in line with the fixed term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.^[1]

Background

See also: Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2010

The Coalition won the 2010 Victorian state election with 45 seats to 43 in the 88-member lower house, a swing of 12 seats, defeating the 11-year Labor government. With a Liberal MP as Speaker, the government operates with a one-seat margin of 44 seats to 43. In the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, the Coalition won a majority of 21 seats, with 16 Labor and 3 Green.^[2][3]

Outgoing Premier John Brumby resigned his seat causing the need for the 2011 Broadmeadows by-election. Frank McGuire stood for Labor and retained the seat.

Retiring Members

Polling

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at ±3 percent.

Legislative Assembly (lower house) opinion polling

	Primary vote					2PP vote
	LIB	NAT	ALP	GRN	OTH	L/NP	ALP
Sep – Oct 2011	43%	4%	30%	15%	8%	55%	45%
Jul – Aug 2011	44%	4%	28%	15%	9%	57%	43%
2010 election	38.1%	6.7%	36.3%	11.2%	7.7%	51.6%	48.4%
23 – 25 Nov 2010	40%	5%	33%	15%	7%	51.1%	48.9%
9 – 11 Nov 2010	39%	5%	37%	14%	5%	49%	51%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

Better Premier ratings^ and Satisfaction ratings^

	Liberal Baillieu	Labor Andrews			Baillieu Approve Disapprove		Andrews Approve Disapprove
Sep – Oct 2011	56%	19%		52%	29%		29%	33%
Jul – Aug 2011	57%	16%		52%	29%		27%	34%
2010 election	–	–		–	–		–	–
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

References

1. ^ "Section 63, Electoral Act 2002". http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/ea2002103/s63.html. Retrieved 2010-09-06. 
2. ^ Upper house summary: ABC
3. ^ Coalition wins Upper House majority: ABC 14 December 2010