Tasmanian state election, 2014

Tasmanian state election, 2014

2010 ← Prior to March 2014

Leader Lara Giddings Will Hodgman Nick McKim Party Labor Liberal Greens Leader since 24 January 2011 30 March 2006 7 July 2008 Last election 10 seats 10 seats 5 seats Seats needed 3 3 8 Votes @ 2010 36.88% 38.99% 21.61%

Incumbent Premier Lara Giddings Labor

The next Tasmanian state election is scheduled to be held before March 2014. The 16-year incumbent Labor government, currently led by the Premier of Tasmania Lara Giddings, will attempt to win a fifth consecutive term against the Liberal opposition, led by Opposition Leader Will Hodgman. Also contesting the election will be the Greens, currently led by Nick McKim.

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Upper house elections in the 15-seat single-member district Legislative Council are staggered and are conducted separately from lower house state elections. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Date

The latest date an election can be is March 2014.

Background

Main article: Tasmanian state election, 2010

The results from the previous election saw a tie between the two major parties, who both won ten seats. The Greens, led by Nick McKim, won five seats and hold the balance of power. The outcome in all five multimember seats was two Labor, two Liberal, and one Green. Governor Peter Underwood commissioned Bartlett to form a government, detailing several reasons for his decision including a higher chance of stability.^[1] The Liberal Party has attempted to issue motions of no-confidence in parliament against the Labor government, but have been unsuccessful.^[2]

The Bartlett cabinet was sworn in on 13 April 2010, with Bartlett as Premier and Lara Giddings as Deputy Premier.^[3] On 24 January 2011, Bartlett stood down from the Premiership to be replaced by Giddings who was elected unopposed as Tasmania's first female Premier.

Polling

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). Unlike other pollsters, EMRS don't "push" their respondents for an answer on the first request, contributing to the large "undecided" percentage. The sample size for each poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.^[4]

House of Assembly opinion polling

Date	Political parties
	ALP	Lib	Grn	Ind	Undecided
Nov 2011	17%	42%	15%	2%	24%
Aug 2011	16%	44%	14%	4%	22%
May 2011	19%	38%	17%	4%	22%
Feb 2011	20%	36%	20%	2%	23%
Nov 2010	23%	35%	20%	3%	19%
Aug 2010	29%	30%	23%	3%	14%
May 2010	23%	38%	24%	3%	12%
2010 election	36.9%	39.0%	21.6%	2.5%	–
Feb 2010	23%	30%	22%	2%	23%
Polling conducted by EMRS.

Preferred premier ratings^

Date	Labor Giddings	Liberal Hodgman	Green McKim
Nov 2011	19%	48%	14%
Aug 2011	19%	52%	13%
May 2011	22%	42%	18%
Feb 2011	27%	38%	16%
Nov 2010	23%1	39%	21%
Aug 2010	27%1	34%	22%
May 2010	26%1	40%	23%
2010 election	–	–	–
Feb 2010	29%1	34%	21%
1 David Bartlett. Polling conducted by EMRS. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" or "undecided" to any leader.

External links

• EMRS Tasmanian state polling

References

1. ^ Hon Peter Underwood AC (9 April 2010). "The reasons of the Governor of Tasmania for the commissioning of the Honourable David Bartlett to form a government following the 2010 House of Assembly Election" (doc). http://www.govhouse.tas.gov.au/sites/default/files/speeches/Reasons_for_commissioning_Mr_Bartlett_to_form_a_government.pdf. Retrieved 2 December 2010. 
2. ^ Labor, Greens defeat 'no confidence' move, ABC News, 5 May 2010.
3. ^ Media ban as Bartlett government sworn in, ABC News, 13 April 2010.
4. ^ EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll, EMRS, February 2011.