South Australian state election, 2014

South Australian state election, 2014

2010 ← 15 March 2014

Leader Jay Weatherill Isobel Redmond Party Labor Liberal Leader since 21 October 2011 8 July 2009 Leader's seat Cheltenham Heysen Last election 26 seats 18 seats Seats needed 2 6 2PP @ 2010 48.4% 51.6% 2PP polling 46% 54% BP polling 34%* 45%

Incumbent Premier Jay Weatherill Labor

The 2014 South Australian state election will elect members to the 53rd Parliament of South Australia on 15 March 2014. All seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2010 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2006 election, will become vacant. The 12-year incumbent Australian Labor Party, currently led by Premier Jay Weatherill, will be challenged by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia, currently led by Opposition Leader Isobel Redmond.

Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.

Date

The last state election was held on 20 March 2010 to elect members for the House of Assembly and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.^[1]

The election campaign must run for a minimum of 25 days or a maximum of 55 days. Between 7 and 10 days after the writs are issued, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of South Australia of any changes in their place of residence. Candidates wishing to stand for election can nominate between the issue of the writs and no more than 14 days after the close of rolls for a deposit of $450.^[2]

Current parliament

See also: Full results of the South Australian state election, 2010

The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Isobel Redmond, are the two main parties in South Australia. In the 2010 state election, of 47 seats total, the Labor Party won 26 seats and the Liberal Party won 18 seats. Three seats were won by independents, Bob Such (Fisher), Geoff Brock (Frome), and Don Pegler (Mount Gambier). Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2010 include the SA Greens and the Family First Party. In the upper house, the Labor Party holds eight seats, the Liberal Party holds seven seats, the SA Greens, the Family First Party, and No Pokies all hold two seats each, and Dignity for Disabled holds one seat.

A Port Adelaide by-election and a Ramsay by-election is expected to occur in early February 2012.

Current pendulum

The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

To produce 'fair' boundaries, the Electoral Commission of South Australia since 1989 has been required to re-draw boundaries after each election with two-party electoral outcomes in mind. The coming redistribution will "effectively wipe out the Labor government's majority".^[3]

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Bright	Chloe Fox	ALP	0.4%
Mitchell	Alan Sibbons	ALP	2.1%
Newland	Tom Kenyon	ALP	2.2%
Hartley	Grace Portolesi	ALP	2.3%
Florey	Frances Bedford	ALP	3.6%
Elder	Pat Conlon	ALP	3.6%
Colton	Paul Caica	ALP	4.0%
Mawson	Leon Bignell	ALP	4.4%
Wright	Jennifer Rankine	ALP	4.6%
Ashford	Stephanie Key	ALP	4.8%
Light	Tony Piccolo	ALP	5.3%
Fairly safe
Little Para	Lee Odenwalder	ALP	6.7%
West Torrens	Tom Koutsantonis	ALP	6.7%
Lee	Michael Wright	ALP	7.1%
Torrens	Robyn Geraghty	ALP	7.7%
Kaurna	John Hill	ALP	8.6%
Safe
Reynell	Gay Thompson	ALP	10.4%
Enfield	John Rau	ALP	10.5%
Taylor	Leesa Vlahos	ALP	11.1%
Giles	Lyn Breuer	ALP	11.9%
Port Adelaide	Kevin Foley	ALP	12.8%
Croydon	Michael Atkinson	ALP	14.1%
Napier	Michael O'Brien	ALP	15.8%
Cheltenham	Jay Weatherill	ALP	16.1%
Playford	Jack Snelling	ALP	16.2%
Ramsay	Mike Rann	ALP	18.0%
Very safe

LIBERAL SEATS
Marginal
Chaffey	Tim Whetstone	LIB	3.8% v NAT
Morialta	John Gardner	LIB	4.1%
Adelaide	Rachel Sanderson	LIB	4.2%
Norwood	Steven Marshall	LIB	4.9%
Fairly safe
Stuart	Dan van Holst Pellekaan	LIB	7.6%
Safe
Morphett	Duncan McFetridge	LIB	11.1%
Finniss	Michael Pengilly	LIB	11.2%
Davenport	Iain Evans	LIB	11.8%
Unley	David Pisoni	LIB	12.2%
Waite	Martin Hamilton-Smith	LIB	12.9%
Kavel	Mark Goldsworthy	LIB	15.8%
Heysen	Isobel Redmond	LIB	16.5%
Schubert	Ivan Venning	LIB	17.8%
Goyder	Steven Griffiths	LIB	18.3%
Hammond	Adrian Pederick	LIB	19.0%
Very safe
MacKillop	Mitch Williams	LIB	20.1% v IND
Bragg	Vickie Chapman	LIB	21.1%
Flinders	Peter Treloar	LIB	26.2%
INDEPENDENT SEATS
Mt Gambier	Don Pegler	IND	0.4% v LIB
Frome	Geoff Brock	IND	7.5% v LIB
Fisher	Bob Such	IND	16.6% v LIB

Metropolitan seats

Rural seats

Polling

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of just over 1000 electors. The declared margin of error at this sample size is ±3 percent. Two-party preferred figures are calculated based on preference flows at the previous state election.

House of Assembly opinion polling

	Primary vote					2PP vote
	ALP	Lib	Nat	Grn	Oth	ALP	Lib
Apr–Jun 2011	30%	40%	1%	14%	15%	46%	54%
25 Feb–6 Mar 2011	29%	42%	1%	14%	14%	44%	56%
Mar 2010 election	37.5%	41.7%	1.0%	8.1%	11.7%	48.4%	51.6%
14–18 Mar 2010	35.3%	42.5%	< .5%	9.3%	12.3%	48%	52%
Jan–Mar 2010	36%	39%	1%	10%	14%	50%	50%
Oct–Dec 2009	37%	35%	1%	12%	15%	53%	47%
Jul–Aug 2009	41%	33%	1%	11%	14%	56%	44%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

Better Premier polling^

	Rann	Redmond
Apr–Jun 2011	34%	45%
25 Feb–6 Mar 2011	32%	50%
Mar 2010 election	–	–
14–18 Mar 2010	43%	45%
Jan–Mar 2010	44%	41%
Oct–Dec 2009	48%	31%
Jul–Aug 2009	46%	27%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

Satisfaction polling^

	Rann		Redmond
	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied
Apr–Jun 2011	31%	59%	51%	29%
25 Feb–6 Mar 2011	30%	59%	52%	25%
Mar 2010 election	–	–	–	–
14–18 Mar 2010	43%	48%	59%	23%
Jan–Mar 2010	45%	48%	58%	20%
Oct–Dec 2009	50%	38%	51%	18%
Jul–Aug 2009	51%	40%	43%	10%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

See also

• South Australian state election, 2010

References

1. ^ Australian elections timetable: Australian Parliamentary Library
2. ^ State Electoral Office, South Australia (13 February 2006). "Electoral Questions & Answers". http://www.seo.sa.gov.au/apps/uploadedFiles/news/276/SEO_QA06_13feb06.pdf. Retrieved 2007-12-26. 
3. ^ Future election dates: Antony Green ABC

External links

• Electoral Commission of South Australia
• Liberals eyeing a Greens deal: The Advertiser 19 February 2011