Western Australian state election, 2013

Next Western Australian state election

2008 ← 9 March 2013

Leader Colin Barnett Eric Ripper Party Liberal Labor Leader since 6 August 2008 (2008-08-06) 23 September 2008 (2008-09-23) Leader's seat Cottesloe Belmont Last election 24 seats 28 seats Seats needed 6 2 2PP @ 2008 51.85% 48.15% 2PP polling 57% 43% PP polling 56% 22%

Incumbent Premier Colin Barnett Liberal

The next state election in Western Australia will be held on 9 March 2013. All 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 36 seats in the Legislative Council will be contested.

Date of election

At previous elections the government was able to decide the date of the election, however on 3 November 2011 the government introduced fixed four-year terms.^[1][2]

Seats held

Lower house

At the previous election, Labor won 28 seats, the Liberals won 24 seats, the Nationals won four seats, with three seats won by independents. Three changes have occurred since; the Greens won the seat of Fremantle off Labor at the 2009 by-election, Vince Catania in the seat of North West defected from Labor to the Nationals in July 2009,^[3] and Fremantle MP Adele Carles resigned from the Greens in 2010, leaving Labor with 26 seats, the Liberals with 24 seats, the Nationals with five seats, while independents hold four seats.

Upper house

At the previous election, the Liberals won 16 seats, Labor won 11 seats, the Nationals won five seats, and the Greens won four seats.

Current pendulum

The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin post-election on a two-candidate-preferred basis.

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Albany	Peter Watson	ALP	0.2%
Forrestfield	Andrew Waddell	ALP	0.2%
Kwinana	Roger Cook	ALP	0.8% v IND
Collie-Preston	Mick Murray	ALP	1.0%
Balcatta	John Kobelke	ALP	2.3%
Joondalup	Tony O'Gorman	ALP	3.5%
Pilbara	Tom Stephens	ALP	3.6%
West Swan	Rita Saffioti	ALP	4.4%
Gosnells	Chris Tallentire	ALP	5.5%
Fairly safe
Belmont	Eric Ripper	ALP	6.7%
Kimberley	Carol Martin	ALP	6.8%
Perth	John Hyde	ALP	7.8%
Midland	Michelle Roberts	ALP	8.3%
Mindarie	John Quigley	ALP	8.5%
Cannington	Bill Johnston	ALP	9.0%
Maylands	Lisa Baker	ALP	9.0%
Victoria Park	Ben Wyatt	ALP	9.0%
Cockburn	Fran Logan	ALP	9.6%
Warnbro	Paul Papalia	ALP	9.7%
Safe
Bassendean	Martin Whitely	ALP	10.3%
Mandurah	David Templeman	ALP	10.5%
Rockingham	Mark McGowan	ALP	10.6%
Willagee	Peter Tinley	ALP	10.6% v GRN
Girrawheen	Margaret Quirk	ALP	11.5%
Nollamara	Janine Freeman	ALP	12.7%
Very safe
Armadale	Tony Buti	ALP	20.3% v CDP

LIBERAL/NATIONAL SEATS
Marginal
North West	Vince Catania	NAT	−3.1%1
Riverton	Mike Nahan	LIB	0.2%
Wanneroo	Paul Miles	LIB	0.7%
Morley	Ian Britza	LIB	0.9%
Southern River	Peter Abetz	LIB	1.6%
Jandakot	Joe Francis	LIB	1.8%
Mount Lawley	Michael Sutherland	LIB	2.2%
Nedlands	Bill Marmion	LIB	2.5% v IND
Moore	Grant Woodhams	NAT	3.1% v LIB
Swan Hills	Frank Alban	LIB	3.5%
Eyre	Graham Jacobs	LIB	3.6% v NAT
Ocean Reef	Albert Jacob	LIB	4.4%
Kingsley	Andrea Mitchell	LIB	4.5%
Scarborough	Liza Harvey	LIB	5.2%
Darling Range	Tony Simpson	LIB	5.6%
Fairly safe
Kalamunda	John Day	LIB	6.3%
Murray-Wellington	Murray Cowper	LIB	8.4%
Geraldton	Ian Blayney	LIB	8.5%
Safe
Dawesville	Kim Hames	LIB	11.1%
Bateman	Christian Porter	LIB	11.4%
Hillarys	Rob Johnson	LIB	11.4%
Bunbury	John Castrilli	LIB	11.7%
Vasse	Troy Buswell	LIB	13.5%
South Perth	John McGrath	LIB	14.3%
Carine	Tony Krsticevic	LIB	14.5%
Blackwood-Stirling	Terry Redman	NAT	17.3% v LIB
Central Wheatbelt	Brendon Grylls	NAT	17.9% v LIB
Cottesloe	Colin Barnett	LIB	19.4%
Very safe
Wagin	Terry Waldron	NAT	27.1% v LIB
INDEPENDENT SEATS
Alfred Cove	Janet Woollard	IND	1.0% v LIB
Kalgoorlie	John Bowler	IND	3.6% v NAT
Fremantle	Adele Carles	IND	4.0% v ALP2
Churchlands	Liz Constable	IND	23.5% v ALP

1.^ Elected as Labor member, defected to the Nationals in July 2009, margin is ALP v NAT.

2.^ Elected as Green member, resigned from The Greens in May 2010.

Polling

Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes consist of around 800–900 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3.5 percent.

Legislative Assembly opinion polling

	Primary vote					2PP vote
	Lib	Lab	Nat	Gre	Oth	Lib	Lab
Jul–Sep 2011	42%	29%	6%	13%	10%	57%	43%
Apr–Jun 2011	43%	30%	6%	12%	9%	57%	43%
Jan–Mar 2011	43%	31%	6%	13%	7%	57%	43%
Oct–Dec 2010	42%	29%	7%	13%	9%	58%	42%
Jul–Sep 2010	41%	30%	6%	14%	9%	57%	43%
Apr–Jun 2010	38%	32%	6%	16%	8%	54%	46%
Jan–Mar 2010	40%	37%	5%	11%	7%	53%	47%
Jan–Mar 2009	42%	33%	5%	13%	7%	55%	45%
2008 election	38.4%	35.8%	4.9%	11.9%	9.0%	51.9%	48.1%
2–4 Sep 2008	37%	35%	6%	12%	10%	50%	50%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

Better Premier ratings^

	Liberal Barnett	Labor Ripper
Jul–Sep 2011	56%	22%
Apr–Jun 2011	58%	18%
Jan–Mar 2011	56%	17%
Oct–Dec 2010	60%	16%
Jul–Sep 2010	61%	17%
Apr–Jun 2010	60%	19%
Jan–Mar 2010	58%	19%
Jan–Mar 2009	60%	14%
2008 election	–	–
2–4 Sep 2008	35%	48%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1 Alan Carpenter

Satisfaction polling^

	Barnett		Ripper
	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied
Jul–Sep 2011	51%	35%	34%	43%
Apr–Jun 2011	50%	37%	33%	43%
Jan–Mar 2011	54%	33%	31%	44%
Oct–Dec 2010	55%	35%	33%	43%
Jul–Sep 2010	56%	32%	34%	42%
Apr–Jun 2010	55%	33%	36%	44%
Jan–Mar 2010	51%	34%	33%	43%
Jan–Mar 2009	56%	23%	35%	34%
2008 election	–	–	–	–
2–4 Sep 2008	40%	43%	42%1	48%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1 Alan Carpenter

References

1. ^ New laws fix state election dates: ABC 3 November 2011
2. ^ Future electyion dates: ABC's Antony Green
3. ^ "Catania quits Labor to join Nationals: ABC News 20/7/2009". Abc.net.au. 2009-07-20. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/20/2631409.htm. Retrieved 2011-02-04. 

External links

• Western Australian Electoral Commission
• Anthony Green