Next Eleven

N-11 nations in red. From left: Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea, Philippines

The Next Eleven (or N-11) are eleven countries—Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam—identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank as having a high potential of becoming, along with the BRICS, the world's largest economies in the 21st century. The bank chose these states, all with promising outlooks for investment and future growth, on December 12, 2005.

The criteria that Goldman Sachs used were macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies, and the quality of education. The N-11 paper is a follow-up to the bank's 2003 paper on the four emerging "BRIC" economies, Brazil, Russia, India, and China.^[1]

Next Eleven countries

Developed country

• South Korea: Advanced economy (both CIA and IMF), High-income economy,^[2] Very High human development, High-income OECD member, Developed market (in: Dow Jones index, FTSE index, and S&P index),^[3] Full democracy, Development Assistance Committee member, G-20 major economies, Four Asian Tigers, KORUS FTA, European Union-Korea FTA, Visa Waiver Program participant, APEC founding member, ASEAN Plus Three founding member, EAS founding member

Newly industrialized country

• Iran: Upper-middle-income economy^[4], High human development, Islamic Republic, OPEC and GECF founding member, ECO member, Group of 15 member, Developing 8 Countries
• Mexico: Upper-middle-income economy,^[2] High human development, OECD member, Advanced Emerging market,^[5] Flawed democracy, G-20 major economies, G8+5 member, NAFTA, APEC member
• Turkey: Upper-middle-income economy,^[2] High human development, OECD founding member, Advanced Emerging market,^[5] Hybrid regime, G-20 major economies, EU Customs Union, ECO member, EU associate member, Developing 8 Countries
• Philippines: Lower-middle-income economy,^[2] Medium human development, Secondary Emerging market,^[5] Flawed democracy, G20 developing nations, APEC founding member, ASEAN founding member, EAS founding member

Developing country

• Indonesia: Lower-middle-income economy,^[2] Medium human development, Secondary Emerging market,^[5] Flawed democracy, G-20 major economies, APEC founding member, ASEAN founding member, EAS founding member, Developing 8 Countries
• Egypt: Lower-middle-income economy,^[2] Medium human development, Secondary Emerging market,^[5] Regime in transition, G20 developing nations, CAEU founding member, COMESA member, ENP member, Developing 8 Countries
• Pakistan: Lower-middle-income economy,^[6] Medium human development, Secondary Emerging market,^[5] Hybrid Regime, G20 developing nations, SAARC founding member, ECO member, Developing 8 Countries
• Vietnam: Lower-middle-income economy,^[2] Fast emerging, Medium human development, Frontier market,^[7] Authoritarian regime, APEC member, ASEAN member, EAS founding member.

Least developed country

• Bangladesh: Low Income Economy,^[2] Medium human development, Frontier market, SAARC founding member IOR-ARC member, Developing 8 Countries
• Nigeria: Low-income economy,^[2] Medium human development, Frontier market,^[7] Flawed Democracy, AU member, OPEC member, Developing 8 Countries

Most featured

South Korea & United Korea

Seoul, South Korea

Despite being a developed country, South Korea has been growing at a speed comparable to Brazil and Mexico. More importantly, it has a significantly higher Growth Environment Score (Goldman Sachs' way of measuring the long-term sustainability of growth) than all of the BRICs or N-11s.^[8] Commentators such as William Pesek, Jr. from Bloomberg argue that Korea is "Another 'BRIC' in Global Wall", suggesting that it stands out from the Next Eleven economies (N-11). South Korea will overtake Canada by 2025 and Italy by 2035 according to their paper "The N-11: More Than an Acronym".^[9] Economists from other investment firms argue that Korea will have a GDP per capita of over $90,000 by 2050, virtually identical to the United States and the second highest among the G7, BRIC, and N-11 economies, suggesting that wealth is more important than size for bond investors, stating that Korea's credit rating will be rated AAA sooner than 2050.^[10]

Korea in 2050^[11]

	United Korea	South Korea	North Korea
GDP in USD	$6.056 trillion	$4.073 trillion	$1.982 trillion
GDP per capita	$86,000	$96,000	$70,000
GDP growth (2010–2050)	4.1%	3.3%	12.4%
Total population	71 million	42 million	28 million

In September 2009, Goldman Sachs published its 188th Global Economics Paper named "A United Korea?" which highlighted in detail the potential economic power of a United Korea, which will surpass all current G7 countries except the United States, such as Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France within 30–40 years of reunification, estimating GDP to surpass $6 trillion by 2050.^[12] Cheap, skilled labor from the North combined with advanced technology and infrastructure in the South, as well as Korea's strategic location connecting three economic powers, is likely going to create an economy larger than the bulk of the G7. According to some opinions, a reunited Korea could occur before 2050,^[12] or even between 2010 and 2020.^[13] If it occurred, Korean reunification would immediately raise the country's population to over 70 million.^{[citation needed]}

Mexico

Mexico City, Mexico

Primarily, along with the BRICs,^[14] Goldman Sachs argues that the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, and China is such that they may become (with the USA) the six most dominant economies by the year 2050. Due to Mexico's rapidly advancing infrastructure, increasing middle class, and rapidly declining poverty rates, it is expected to have a higher GDP per capita than all but three European countries by 2050, this new found local wealth also contributes to the nation's economy by creating a large domestic consumer market which in turn creates more jobs.

Mexico in 2050^[15]

	Mexico
GDP in USD	$9.340 trillion
GDP per capita	$63,149
GDP growth (2015–2050)	4.0%
Total population	148 million

Indonesia

Jakarta, Indonesia

Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country after China, India, and the USA and the world's third most populous democratic country after India and the USA. In 2009, BRIC and Indonesia represented about 42 and 3 percent of the world's population respectively and about 15 percent of global GDP altogether. All of them are G20 countries. By 2015, Internet users in BRIC and Indonesia will double to 1.2 billion.^[16][17] At 2009, Indonesia was the only member of the G20 to lower its public debt-to-GDP ratio: a positive economic management indicator.^[18]

October 2010: Wealth has surged in emerging markets in Asia Pacific, especially India and Indonesia. In the last ten years, the total wealth of India has tripled to $3.5 trillion while that of Indonesia has grown fivefold to $1.8 trillion. The inaugural report by the Credit Suisse Research Institute defines wealth as the value of financial assets and non-financial assets (mainly real estate), minus household debt.^[19]

Indonesia in 2050^[20]

	Indonesia
GDP in USD	$45.010 trillion
GDP per capita	$87,395
GDP growth (2015–2050)	4.7%
Total population	313 million

Pakistan

Karachi, Pakistan

Pakistan the world's sixth most populous country after China, India, USA, Indonesia, and Brazil. With most of the population working in agriculture, it is a nation with a partially democratic system though, as of 2011,GDP growth was steady during the mid-2000s at a rate of 7%; however, slowed down during the Economic crisis of 2008 to 4.7%. A large inflation rate of 24.4% and a low savings rate, and other economic factors, continue to make it difficult to sustain a high growth rate. Pakistan's GDP is US$167 billions, which makes it the 48th-largest economy in the world or 27th largest by purchasing power adjusted exchange rates. Today, Pakistan is regarded as to having the second largest economy in South Asia. The structure of the Pakistani economy has changed from a mainly agricultural base to a strong service base. Agriculture now only accounts for roughly 20% of the GDP, while the service sector accounts for 53% of the GDP. Significant foreign investments have been made in several areas including telecommunications, real estate and energy. Other important industries include apparel and textiles (accounting for nearly 60% of exports), food processing, chemicals manufacture, and the iron and steel industries.Pakistan's exports in 2008 amounted to $20.62 billion (USD). Pakistan is a rapidly developing country. ^{[21][22][23][24]}

Pakistan in 2050^[25]

	Pakistan
GDP in USD	$2.085 trillion
GDP per capita	$7,066
GDP growth (2015–2050)	3.8%
Total population	178 million

Philippines

Ortigas Center, Philippines

The Philippines was then one of the richest countries in Asia, but due to political instability and adoption of inconsistent economic policies, it took a turn to being one of the poorest. The Philippines, despite its relatively small land area, has the world's 12th largest population. This leads to many social problems such as poverty, unemployment, and crime. However, the Philippines is now growing fast and needs are being fulfilled. It performed well compared to other Asian countries and is now considered as a newly industrialized country. It had shown its economic stability in facing financial crises.^[26] According to Goldman Sachs, the Philippine economy will become the 14th largest economy in the world by 2050.^[27][28]

The Philippines in 2050^[15]

	The Philippines
GDP in USD	$3.010 trillion
GDP per capita	$20,388
GDP growth (2015–2050)	5.2%
Total population	148 million

See also

CIVETS Chindia BRIC Emerging markets Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies

Four Asian Tigers G20 developing nations G-20 major economies G8+5

List of countries by GDP (nominal), (per capita) List of countries by HDI rank Newly industrialized countries VISTA (economics)

References

1. ^ Global Economics Paper 134 and Jim O'Neill, BRIMCs
2. ^ ^{a b c d e f g h i} "Data - Country Groups". World Bank. http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/DATASTATISTICS/0,,contentMDK:20421402~pagePK:64133150~piPK:64133175~theSitePK:239419,00.html. Retrieved 2009-02-02. 
3. ^ http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/blog/eyeonasia/archives/2009/09/korea_wins_ftse.html
4. ^ Torbat, Akbar E. (27-09-2010). "Industrialization and Dependency: the Case of Iran". Los Angeles: California State University. http://www.ecosecretariat.org/ftproot/Publications/Journal/2/Industrialization%20and%20Dependency%20-%20the%20Case%20of%20Iran%20d%20by%20Akbar%20Torbat.doc. Retrieved 04-09-2011. 
5. ^ ^{a b c d e f} See FTSE emerging markets list
6. ^ http://data.worldbank.org/node/123#Lower_middle_income
7. ^ ^{a b} See FTSE frontier markets list
8. ^ "Global Economics Paper 134 and Jim O'Neill, BRIMCs". Goldman Sachs. http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/how-solid-doc.pdf. Retrieved 2010-11-06. 
9. ^ http://www.chicagogsb.edu/alumni/clubs/pakistan/docs/next11dream-march%20%2707-goldmansachs.pdf
10. ^ http://www.strattonstreetcapital.com/abf/reports/a%20pile%20of%20brics.pdf
11. ^ "Global Economics Paper No: 188 "A United Korea?"" (PDF). http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/global_economics_paper_no_188_final.pdf. Retrieved 2010-10-15. 
12. ^ ^{a b} "Unified Korea to Exceed G7 in 2050". Koreatimes.co.kr. 2009-09-21. http://koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2009/09/123_52202.html. Retrieved 2010-10-15. 
13. ^ "Questia Online Library". Questia.com. http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst?docId=5002508142. Retrieved 2010-10-15. 
14. ^ "BRIC thesis Goldman Sachs Investment Bank, "BRIC"". Gs.com. http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf. Retrieved 2010-10-15. 
15. ^ ^{a b} Global Economics Paper No: 153 The N-11m: More Than an Acronym, March 28, 2007.
16. ^ Internet users in BRIC countries set to double by 2015
17. ^ Thu, 2 Sep 2010. "South Asia Hello". Archive.wn.com. http://archive.wn.com/2010/09/02/1400/southasiahello/. Retrieved 2010-10-15. 
18. ^ "Indonesia’s economy continues to surprise". East Asia Forum. 2010-09-25. http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/09/25/indonesias-economy-continues-to-surprise/. Retrieved 2010-10-15. 
19. ^ http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/298716
20. ^ "Global Economics Paper No: 188 "Pakistan"" (PDF). http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/global_economics_paper_no_188_final.pdf. Retrieved 2010-10-15. 
21. ^ http://www.euronews.net/2009/05/06/us-concern-over-instability-in-pakistan/
22. ^ http://www.nsnetwork.org/node/1254
23. ^ http://pakteahouse.net/2011/03/13/witch-hunt-grips-pakistan-as-bloody-political-assassinations-deplete-liberal-ranks/
24. ^ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13085776
25. ^ "Global Economics Paper No: 188 "Pakistan"" (PDF). http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/global_economics_paper_no_188_final.pdf. Retrieved 2010-10-15. 
26. ^ [1]
27. ^ "BRICS AND BEYOND" - Goldman Sachs study of BRIC and N11 nations, November 23, 2007.
28. ^ "The Expanding Middle: The Exploding World Middle Class and Falling Global Inequality" - Goldman Sachs study, Global Economics Paper No: 170, July 28, 2008.

Further reading

• "The N-11: More Than an Acronym" – Goldman Sachs study of N-11 nations, Global Economics Paper No: 153, March 28, 2007.

External links

• Development Bank Research Bulletin article
• Grant Thornton IBR - Emerging markets: reshaping the global economy. May 2008