Oil megaprojects

Oil megaprojects are large oil field projects.

Summary of megaprojects

Megaprojects predicted for individual years

Overview

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

New supply addition per country from oil megaprojects

Volumes shown are in thousand barrels per day. The summary table below is produced by a Perl script parsing each annual table. This script is not run every day so some discrepancies may appear (last update: 18-JAN-2010).

Country	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Total	3172	2747	3776	3845	2950	4468	4957	4950	3214	2475	2495	2220	2530	1385	462	130
OPEC
Total OPEC	917	1570	1175	1795	905	2000	2670	3260	1419	1475	920	1110	1425	300	300
Algeria	70	80		50				50	70	170		40
Angola	90	250	325	425	455	200	170		235	325	235	140	115
Ecuador	52									30
Iran	95	85	190	150	200	570	115	95	120	110	35	540	545
Iraq						150	110	1940	115	150	350
Kuwait		65	300	60	60	50	50			50	190
Libya	115	150			10				50	30
Nigeria	195		225	390		350	215	105	384	350	230	140
Qatar		70	45	130	180		445	230	170			130
Saudi Arabia	300	690		300		610	1430	670			30		365	300	300
UAE			90	290			135	170	75	60		120	200
Venezuela		180				70			200				200
Non-OPEC
Total Non-OPEC	2255	1177	2601	2050	2045	2468	2287	1690	1795	1000	1575	1110	1105	1085	162	130
Australia	40	200	85	100	105	80	20	65	55	30		100
Azerbaijan			325	750		260					100		200
Brazil	70	250	300	340	640	220	465	250	380	100	530	100	300
Cameroon									20
Canada	255		90		45	260	100	225	125	140	60	210	210	235	162	130
Chad	225	60
China	62	100				200	295		20	200
Denmark								20
East Timor									20				25
Egypt						40
Eq. Guinea	110			60
Equatorial Guinea										50
Gabon							20	10	20
Ghana								120		20
India						40	175	25
Indonesia	40	200		20	50	34	25		125	50
Italy									50
Côte d'Ivoire			65
Kazakhstan	150			250	285	160					560	120		850
Malaysia	105				120		45			100	40
Mauritania				75
Mexico			730			310			50	70		200
New Zealand					40		25
Norway	389		176	45	120	135	70	215	130		105
Oman						40		155
Papua New Guinea											40
Peru									50
Philippines						15		15
Republic of Congo							60
Republic of the Congo						90
Russia	380		250		80	155	570	250	585	150	60	120	15
South Africa											30		80
Sudan			250	285			50
Syria		30
Thailand	40					10	12
Trinidad			60
UK	40	30	60		305	25	40			20	25		75
USA	279	282	210	95	255	329	285	230	135	50		260	200
Vietnam	70					65		110	30	20	25
Yemen		25		30			30

• 

  New gross supply additions from Megaprojects.

• 

  Percentage of new supply additions (2003-2018) per country. The "Others" category includes countries with less than 1% contribution.

• 

  Liquid additions by category coming from oil megaprojects: NGL=Natural Gas Liquids, unconventional=Bitumen, synthetic oil from tar sands, GTL, etc.. Projects with no specified category were added to the crude oil/condensate group.

Application to oil supply forecasting

Number of oil fields discovered per decades grouped by average flow rates (left) and corresponding oil volumes (right) in giga-barrels (Gb). Data taken from the annexe B of "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew Simmons.^[1]

A series of project tabulations and analyses by Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, have presented a more pessimistic picture of future oil supply. In a 2004 report,^[2] based on an analysis of new projects over 100,000 barrels per day (16,000 m³/d), he argued that although ample supply might be available in the near-term, after 2007 "the volumes of new production for this period are well below likely requirements." By 2006,^[3] although "the outlook for future supply appears somewhat brighter than even six months ago", nonetheless, if "all the factors reducing new capacity come into play, markets will remain tight and prices high. Only if new capacity flows into the system rather more rapidly than of late, will there be any chance of rebuilding spare capacity and softening prices."

The smallest fields, even in aggregate, do not contribute a large fraction of the total. For example, a relatively small number of giant and super-giant oilfields are providing almost half of the world production.^[1]

Decline rates

Main article: Oil depletion

The most important variable is the average decline rate for Fields in Production (FIP) which is difficult to assess.^[4][5][6]

Further reading

• "Oil and Gas Projects Database". Gulfoilandgas.com. viewed July 2, 2010. http://www.gulfoilandgas.com/webpro1/Projects/main.asp. 
• "Major Oil & Gas Fields". Triple Diamond Energy Corporation. December 2007. http://www.majoroilfields.com/worldfields.asp. 
• "Industry Projects". Offshore Technology. viewed December 5, 2007. http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/. 

See also

Energy portal

• Energy law
• List of largest oil fields
• Giant oil and gas fields
• List of Russian megaprojects

References

1. ^ ^{a b} Simmons, Matthew (2005). Twilight in the desert : the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy. Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-73876-3. 
2. ^ "Oil field mega projects". 2004. http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/documents/MEGAPROJECTSREPORT.pdf. 
3. ^ "Prices holding steady, despite massive planned capacity additions". http://sydneypeakoil.com/downloads/PR_APR06_Megaprojects.pdf. 
4. ^ Lawrence Eagles (2006). "Medium Term Oil Market Report". OECD/International Transport Forum Roundtable. http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/RoundTables/RTOilNov07Eagles.pdf. 
5. ^ John Gerdes (2007). "Modest Non-OPEC Supply Growth Underpins $60+ Oil Price". SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. http://gerdes-group.com/energy-insight/Non-OPECSupply20070206.pdf. 
6. ^ Peter M. Jackson (2007). "Finding the Critical Numbers: What Are the Real Decline Rates for Global Oil Production?". CERA. http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/client/report/reportpreview.aspx?CID=8958&KID=165.