United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2008

United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2008

2002 ← November 4, 2008 → 2014

Nominee Tom Udall Steve Pearce Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 505,128 318,522 Percentage 61.3% 38.7%

County results

U.S. Senator before election Pete Domenici Republican Elected U.S. Senator Tom Udall Democratic

The 2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pete Domenici decided to retire instead of seeking a seventh term. All three of New Mexico's U.S. Representatives (Tom Udall, Steve Pearce, and Heather Wilson) chose to retire from the U.S. House of Representatives in order to run for the seat. Pearce defeated Wilson in the Republican primary. Udall won the Democratic primary unopposed and won the general election.

Background

In February 2007 Domenici indicated his intention to run for re-election.^[1] By October 2007, he changed his mind, stating that because of the progression of a medical condition, he would not seek a seventh term.^[2] Domenici also lost his chairmanship after Republicans lost control of the Senate in the 2006 Senate election, which may have inclined him against running. On June 3, 2008 Pearce and Udall won their respective nomination contests.^[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Tom Udall, U.S. Congressman

Campaign

After Domenici announced he was not running, Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was considered a leading candidate for the seat, but in October he affirmed his commitment to his presidential nomination campaign.^[4]

In October Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez entered the race for the Democratic nomination.^[5] In early November five-term Democratic Rep. Tom Udall entered the race.^[6] On December 7 Chavez withdrew from the race, saying "While I deeply appreciate all the support I have received, it has become very clear to me that Democrats should not be divided in the upcoming election."^[7]

Results

Democratic Party primary results[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage
	Democratic	Tom Udall	141,629	100.00%
Totals			141,629	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

• Steve Pearce, U.S. Congressman
• Heather Wilson, U.S. Congresswoman

Polling

Source	Date	Pearce (R)	Wilson (R)
SurveyUSA	May 15, 2008	49%	46%
SurveyUSA	November 16–18, 2007	37%	56%

Results

Republican primary results[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage
	Republican	Steve Pearce	57,953	51.29%
	Republican	Heather Wilson	55,039	48.71%
Totals			112,992	100.00%

General election

Candidates

• Tom Udall (D), U.S. Congressman from New Mexico's 3rd congressional district 1999–present (campaign website)
• Steve Pearce, U.S. Congressman from New Mexico's 2nd congressional district 2003–present (campaign website)

Predictions

In February 2008 CQ Politics changed the rating of the election from 'No Clear Favorite' to 'Leans Democratic' citing polls.^[9][10] In June, Senator John Ensign of Nevada, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, considered New Mexico to be one of the top ten most competitive Senate races.^[11] At the end of August, The Cook Political Report rated the race as 'Lean Democratic'.^[12] At the end of September, The Rothenberg Political Report rated the race 'Likely Takeover'.^[13]

Controversy

Domenici and Wilson are both being investigated by the Senate for their roles in the dismissal of prosecutor David Iglesias. This may have affected Wilson's chances in the 2008 election.^[14]

In late October Pearce made 130,000 automated phone calls, which led Wilson to "cry foul."^[15] At issue was Pearce's use of the phone calls to justify his opposition to the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) bill. The Wilson campaign claimed that "Pearce violated House ethics by urging those he called to contact him through his official, non-campaign phone number or check out his official, non-campaign Web site."^[16]

Finances

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) attempted to defend 23 Senate seats up for election in November. Committee chair Senator John Ensign identified the 10 most competitive Republican seats in June 2008. He was asked about the two Republican seats most likely to turn Democratic, Virginia and New Mexico. Ensign did not directly say whether the NRSC was considering walking away to work on other seats that can be won, but he said, "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win.”^[17]

Udall raised more than $801,000 prior to November 29.^[18] Wilson had slightly less, including a November Washington fundraiser with Vice President Dick Cheney that netted $110,000, bringing her total to about $750,000.^[19]

Debates

The candidates have agreed to three televised debates: October 15 on KOB-TV, October 18 on KRQE and October 26 on KOAT-TV. The AARP will co-sponsor the second debate and the Albuquerque Journal will co-sponsor the final debate. They will also appear together on Meet the Press in the fall.^[20]

Polling

Pearce (R) v Udall (D)

Source	Date	Pearce (R)	Udall (D)
Survey USA	October 31, 2008	42%	56%
Rasmussen Reports	October 28, 2008	41%	56%
Rasmussen Reports	October 13, 2008	37%	57%
Survey USA	October 13, 2008	40%	58%
Rasmussen Reports	October 1, 2008	41%	55%
Survey USA	September 29–30, 2008	39%	58%
Public Policy Polling	September 19, 2008	37%	57%
Survey USA	September 16, 2008	41%	56%
Rasmussen Reports	September 8, 2008	44%	51%
Rasmussen Reports	August 20, 2008	44%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	July 24, 2008	35%	61%
SurveyUSA	May 15, 2008	36%	60%
Rasmussen Reports	May 14, 2008	37%	53%
Rasmussen Reports	April 10, 2008	40%	54%
Rasmussen Reports	February 29, 2008	42%	50%
New Mexico State University	February 11, 2008	31%	53%
SurveyUSA	November 16–18, 2007	40%	54%
Research 2000	November 5–7, 2007	37%	54%
SurveyUSA	October 27–30, 2007	40%	56%
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates	October 23–27, 2007	33%	50%
SurveyUSA	October 5–7, 2007	37%	55%

Results

General election results[21]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Tom Udall	505,128	61.33%	+26.37%
	Republican	Steve Pearce	318,522	38.67%	-26.37%
Majority			186,606	22.66%	-7.43%
Turnout			823,650
	Democratic gain from Republican		Swing

References

1. ^ Talhelm, Jennifer (2007-02-13). "Domenici: 'I am running' in 2008". The Santa Fe New Mexican. http://www.freenewmexican.com/news/56924.html. Retrieved 2007-02-14. ^{[dead link]}
2. ^ Murray, Shailagh (2007-10-05). "Citing Health, GOP's Domenici says he'll retire from Senate". The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/04/AR2007100401516.html. Retrieved 2007-10-05. 
3. ^ Election.KOB.com - Pearce narrowly wins U.S. Senate nomination
4. ^ Press, Associated (2008-10-04). "Richardson Sticks with Presidential Bid". The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Richardson-Senate.html. Retrieved 2008-10-05. 
5. ^ "Chavez announces U.S. Senate run". KOB-TV. October 9, 2007. http://kob.com/article/stories/S220083.shtml?cat=500. Retrieved 2007-11-18. 
6. ^ "NM Rep. Tom Udall to Run for Senate". Associated Press. November 11, 2007. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ilmYcsJz4U8IC8m_ox2SWgPj7DegD8SR39O80. Retrieved 2007-11-11. 
7. ^ "Chávez drops out of U. S. Senate race". KRQE-TV. December 7, 2007. http://www.krqe.com/Global/story.asp?S=7468037. Retrieved 2007-12-18. 
8. ^ ^{a b} http://www.sos.state.nm.us/08PrimResults/StatewidePrim08.pdf
9. ^ "Democratic Udall Running Strong in New Mexico Senate Race". CQ Politics. February 11, 2008. http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002668829. Retrieved 2008-12-18. 
10. ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate CQ Politics
11. ^ Kate Phillips, G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections The New York Times, June 13, 2008
12. ^ 2008 Senate Race Chart The Cook Race Ratings, August 21, 2008
13. ^ 2008 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report, September 14, 2008
14. ^ "Wilson, Possibly Udall To Seek Domenici's Senate Seat". The Gate. October 4, 2008. http://thegate.nationaljournal.com/2007/10/wilson_to_seek_domenicis_senat_1.php. Retrieved 2007-10-18. 
15. ^ "Pearce calls voters, Wilson cries foul". KOB. 2007-10-22. http://kob.com/article/stories/S232572.shtml?cat=504. Retrieved 2007-11-18. 
16. ^ "Senate hopefuls don't inspire". Alamogordo Daily News. October 31, 2007. http://www.alamogordonews.com/opinion/ci_7325103. Retrieved 2007-11-18. 
17. ^ Davis, Susan (June 12, 2008). "Sen. Ensign Says GOP Majority Would Be ‘Fairly Miraculous’". Wall Street Journal blog. http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/06/12/sen-ensign-says-gop-majority-would-be-fairly-miraculous/. 
18. ^ "Ten things to know about Senate hopeful Rep. Tom Udall". Albuquerque Tribune. November 29, 2007. http://www.abqtrib.com/news/2007/nov/29/ten-things-know-about-senate-hopeful-rep-tom-udall/. Retrieved 2007-12-11. 
19. ^ "Wilson pulls $110,000 at Cheney fundraiser". The Hill. November 16, 2007. http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/wilson-pulls-110000-at-cheney-fundraiser-2007-11-16.html. Retrieved 2007-12-11. 
20. ^ Senate candidates agree on 3 NM televised debates AP, August 17, 2008
21. ^ http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2008/2008Stat.htm#stateNM

External links

• Elections from the New Mexico Secretary of State
• U.S. Congress candidates for New Mexico at Project Vote Smart
• New Mexico, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
• New Mexico U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
• New Mexico U.S. Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets.org
• Pearce (R) vs Udall (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Official campaign websites
  • People for Pearce, Republican candidate
  • Tom Udall for Senate, Democratic candidate