United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2008

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2008

2002 ← November 4, 2008 → 2014

Nominee Jeanne Shaheen John E. Sununu Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 358,947 314,412 Percentage 51.7% 45.2%

County results

U.S. Senator before election John E. Sununu Republican Elected U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen Democratic

The United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John E. Sununu ran for re-election to a second term, but was defeated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.

Background

New Hampshire has always been considered an island of conservatism in the Northeast. Following the 2006 election, however, many statewide offices were taken over by Democrats: Representatives Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, Governor John Lynch, the majority of the New Hampshire Executive Council (a five-member Lt. Gov.-like board), and the majority of both legislative chambers (which had not occurred since 1911).^[1] The popularity of the governor could be a factor in the election to Sununu's detriment, yet such speculation is premature.^[2] Also, though the state voted for then-Gov. George W. Bush in 2000, Sen. John Kerry narrowly won the state over Bush in 2004.

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Jeanne Shaheen, former Governor
• Raymond Stebbins, attorney

Campaign

Shaheen, the Democratic choice, at a rally in the lead-up to the election.

Astronaut Jay Buckey MD, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, and Katrina Swett, (wife of former Congressman Richard Swett), had announced their candidacies but withdrew in favor of former Governor Jeanne Shaheen upon her entrance into the race.^[3]

Shaheen had been the Democratic nominee for the race in 2002. Since 2005, Shaheen had served as director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government before leaving on September 14, 2007. She had been aggressively courted to run by Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) on behalf of Senate Democrats, and by a "Draft Shaheen" campaign led by former New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Kathy Sullivan.

The filing deadline for the Democratic and Republican Parties was June 13, 2008. Shaheen filed, as did Raymond Stebbins.^[4]

Results

2008 New Hampshire U.S. Senator Democratic primary election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jeanne Shaheen	43,968	88.5
	Democratic	Raymond Stebbins	5,281	10.6
		write-ins	407	0.8
Turnout			49,656

Republican primary

Candidates

• Tom Alciere, former State Representative^[5][6]
• John Sununu, incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

2008 New Hampshire U.S. Senator Republican primary election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	John Sununu	60,852	88.7
	Republican	Tom Alciere	7,084	10.3
		write-ins	685	1.0
Turnout			68,621

General election

Candidates

• Ken Blevens (L)
• Jeanne Shaheen (D), former Governor
• John E. Sununu (R), incumbent U.S. Senator

Campaign

A November 2006 SurveyUSA poll of New Hampshire voters found Sununu had a 47% approval rating.^[7] A February 1, 2007 poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire found that only 45% of New Hampshire voters held a favorable opinion of Sununu. In June 2007, a poll by 7NEWS and Suffolk University of likely voters reported that only 31 percent in the poll said Sununu deserved re-election, with 47 percent saying that someone else should get his seat.^[8]

A July 2008 Granite State Poll had Sununu's favorability rating at 52%, his unfavorability rating at 33%, and neutral or undecided by 16%.^[9] Shaheen is viewed favorable by 53% and unfavorable by 31% and netural or undecided by 15%.^[10]

Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee for President, had mentioned Sununu as a possible running mate for the 2008 presidential election, as well as Lindsey Graham, Bob Riley, Steve Forbes and John Thune. Sununu had said he would remain neutral in the New Hampshire primary. However, McCain selected Alaska governor Sarah Palin instead.

Predictions

Political analyst Chuck Todd said that Sununu was one of the most endangered incumbents, due largely to his continuing support of the President's Iraq policy.^[11] Nonpartisan newsletter Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, following Jeanne Shaheen's entrance into the race, listed the race as "Leans Democratic."^[12] CQ Politics also rated the seat as "Leans Democratic".

Polling

Source	Date	Sununu (R)	Shaheen (D)	Blevens (L)	Undecided
Survey USA	October 30, 2008	40%	53%	6%	2%
Rasmussen Reports	October 30, 2008	44%	52%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports	October 23, 2008	46%	52%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports	October 1, 2008	45%	50%	1%	3%
Rasmussen Reports	September 23, 2008	52%	45%	1%	2%
Granite State Poll	September 14, 2008	44%	48%	––	7%
American Research Group	September 13, 2008	40%	52%	––	8%
Public Opinion Strategies	September 3, 2008	44%	46%	3%	5%
American Research Group	August 18, 2008, 2008	41%	52%	––	7%
Rasmussen Reports	August 19, 2008	43%	52%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports	July 23, 2008	45%	51%	––	––
American Research Group	July 19, 2008	36%	58%	––	––
Granite State Poll	July 20, 2008	42%	46%	––	10%
Rasmussen Reports	June 20, 2008	39%	53%	––	––
American Research Group	June 18, 2008	40%	54%	––	6%
Rasmussen Reports	May 23, 2008	43%	50%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports	March 21, 2008	41%	49%	––	––
American Research Group	March 20, 2008	33%	47%	––	20%
Rasmussen Reports	February 13, 2008	41%	49%	––	––
Granite State Poll	February 11, 2008	37%	54%	––	7%
American Research Group	December 20, 2007	52%	41%	––	7%
SurveyUSA	November 5, 2007	42%	53%	––	5%
WMUR-CNN	September 2007	38%	54%	––	7%
American Research Group	September 18, 2007	41%	46%	––	13%
Rasmussen Reports	September 16, 2007	43%	48%	––	9%
WMUR-CNN	July 2007	38%	54%	––	7%
Research 2000	July 2007	34%	56%	––	10%
American Research Group	June 2007	29%	57%	––	14%
American Research Group	March 29, 2007	34%	44%	––	22%

Results

2008 New Hampshire U.S. Senator general election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jeanne Shaheen	358,438	51.6	+5.2
	Republican	John Sununu	314,403	45.3	-5.5
	Libertarian	Ken Blevens	21,516	3.1	+0.9
Majority			43,035
Turnout			694,357
	Democratic gain from Republican		Swing

References

1. ^ Storm of change sweeps through N.H. Legislature
2. ^ "Can Sununu Hold on in New Hampshire?". Real Clear Politics. July 30, 2007. http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20070730/cm_rcp/a_senator_and_an_800pound_gori. Retrieved 2007-07-30. ^{[dead link]}
3. ^ Swett Drops Out Of NH Senate Race WCSH 6 September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 22, 2007
4. ^ Democratic Party Cumulative Filings New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
5. ^ Republican Party Cumulative Filings New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
6. ^ Republican Party Cumulative Filings New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
7. ^ Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11151, conducted November 2006
8. ^ Ralph Z. Hallow, "N.H. poll puts Gore over Clinton", Washington Times, June 27, 2007
9. ^ [1]
10. ^ [2]
11. ^ Entry 2008 Race Tracker, New Hampshire, accessed June 30, 2007^{[dead link]}
12. ^ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball, New Hampshire Senate Race, 2008

External links

• Election Division from the New Hampshire Secretary of State
• U.S. Congress candidates for New Hampshire at Project Vote Smart
• New Hampshire, U.S. Senate CQ Politics
• New Hampshire U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
• New Hampshire U.S. Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets.org
• Sununu (R-i) vs Shaheen (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Official campaign websites
  • John Sununu, Republican nominee
  • Jay Buckey, withdrawn
  • Jeanne Shaheen, Democratic nominee
• anti-Sununu website from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
• anti-Shaheen website from the National Republican Senatorial Committee