New Hampshire Democratic primary, 2004

The 2004 New Hampshire Democratic Primary was held on January 27, 2004 across the state. Taking place 8 days after the Iowa Caucuses, it marked the second contest to take place during the Democratic party's 2004 primary season, as well as the first actual primary to take place.

Primary Polling

Primary polling taken by American Research Group during the last few days of campaigning ( January 23 to January 27, 2004 ) showed that former New Hampshire poll leader as well as national leader Howard Dean was steadily gaining ground to catch up to now front runner John Kerry.

Candidate	January 23 to 25 poll tracking	January 24 to 26 poll tracking
John Kerry	38%	35%
Howard Dean	20%	25%
John Edwards	16%	15%
Wesley Clark	15%	13%
Joe Lieberman	5%	6%

Gathered from ARG's 2004 NH Democratic Tracking Poll ^[1]

Margin of Error +/- 4

Tracking polling showed that Dean had been catching up to Kerry in the days before the primary, cutting Kerry's 18 point lead to 10 points in a matter of days. With Dean dropping and Kerry rising, it became apparent that the battle for 1st place in New Hampshire would be close. Also, for third place, Wesley Clark, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman were the only ones fighting for third. With Clark and Edwards both taking hits going into the primary, a Lieberman on the rise, the fight for 1st place and third place, according to polls would be intense.

Exit Polling

Category	All	Clark	Dean	Edwards	Kerry	Lieberman
Male	46%	13%	25%	14%	36%	10%
Female	54%	12%	26%	11%	41%	8%
18-64 Years	89%	12%	25%	13%	39%	8%
65+ Years	11%	10%	28%	10%	38%	13%
Democrat	48%	11%	29%	12%	41%	5%
Republican	4%	10%	8%	9%	29%	26%
Independent	48%	13%	23%	13%	37%	12%

Source: CNN.com 2004 Primaries ^[2]

Kerry won huge margins of support amongst almost all constituencies, with his only weak point amongst Republicans who made up 4% of the voting block and was Lieberman's strongest point. Dean repeatedly came distant seconds or third for almost all categories of voters. Edward defeated Clark amongst Male voters as well as voters under 65 but only by a very tiny margin. Lieberman finished in a distant third in almost all categories except for Republicans in which he nearly defeated John Kerry.

Results

As results began to come in during Primary night, it became apparent Kerry had won the primary and was promptly projected the winner by several media outlets. Dean finished in second place. Clark and Edwards were in a dead-lock for third place, with both candidates at 12% during the night.

As final results were being tallied, Kerry won the primary with 84,277 votes and 38%, Dean finished second with 57,761, and 26% and Clark narrowly defeated Edwards for third place with 27,314 votes and 12% ^[3]

Candidate	No. State Delegates	Percentage	Potential National delegates
John Kerry	84,377	38.35	12
Howard Dean	57,761	26.25	9
Wesley Clark	27,314	12.41	0
John Edwards	26,487	12.04	0
Joe Liberman	18,911	8.59	0
Dennis Kucinich	3,114	01.42	0

References

1. ^ "2004 NH Democratic Tracking". http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/demtrack04-30s.html. 
2. ^ "2004 Primaries". CNN. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/NH/index.html. 
3. ^ "2004 Primaries". CNN. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/NH/.