2011 alleged Iran assassination plot

In October 2011, US officials alleged there was a plot tied to the Iranian government to assassinate Saudi ambassador Adel al-Jubeir in the United States. The plot was termed either Iran assassination plot or Iran terror plot in the media. The FBI called the case "Operation Red Coalition". The plot included plans to bomb the Saudi Arabian and Israeli embassies in Washington, D.C. On 11 October 2011, two Iranians, Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, were charged in a New York federal court with plotting to assassinate Al-Jubeir.^[1] According to U.S. officials, the two planned to kill him with a bomb and subsequently bomb the Saudi embassy and the Israeli embassy in Washington, D.C. Subsequent bombings in the Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, were also discussed.^[2] This has been considered by the United States to be an attempted terrorist plot.^[3] Arbabsiar was arrested on 29 September 2011, at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, while Shakuri remains at large.^[4] According to U.S. officials, no one was ever in any immediate danger from the 'plot.'^[5] On 24 October 2011, Arbabsiar pleaded not guilty in U.S. court.^[6] The United States allegation of an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador has meet with a wave of puzzlement and skepticism from some foreign leaders and outside experts. Senior American officials themselves were struggling to explain why the Quds Force would orchestrate such a risky attack in so amateurish a manner. American officials offered no specific evidence linking the plot to Iran’s most senior leaders. ^[7]

Alleged plot

On 11 October 2011, FBI director Robert Mueller held a press conference and described a conspiracy involving monitored international calls, Mexican drug money and an attempt to blow up Jubeir. "Though it reads like the pages of a Hollywood script, the impact would have been very real and many lives would have been lost," Mueller said.^[8] United States Attorney General Eric Holder alleged that the plot was directed by elements of the Iranian government.^[9] At least one investigator has speculated that the men may have been acting as rogue elements in the Iranian government, rather than the actual government itself. "It's so outside their normal track of activity", said a senior law enforcement official who had been involved in the investigation and would speak only on the condition of anonymity. "It's a rogue plan or they're using very different tactics. We just don't know."^[10] The government of Iran has denied the accusations.^[11]

Claims of inconsistency

Analysts and pundits have stated multitude reasons to be skeptical about the true nature of the alleged scheme. One is that the alleged plot, if successfully executed would have been tracked back to Iran and invoked the United Stated to launch a massive aerial attack against Iran’s top military installations and its nuclear research programme. That Tehran would take such a gigantic gamble for little or no conceivable gain; Killing Jubeir – a non-royal Saudi who’s little more than a go-between for King Abdullah – at the risk of provoking war between Iran and the United States ranges from highly unlikely to out of the question for Supreme Leader Ayatollah [Ali Khamenei]. ^[12]

Intelligence analysts have almost universally pointed out that the ‘tradecraft,’ or spy know-how involved in the US account of the affair is laughably incompetent. Speaking in almost unguarded language over open phone lines between the United States and Iran, wiring very large, easily traced sums of cash into an unvetted (FBI-controlled) bank account, and hiring a notoriously volatile Mexican drug-trafficking mafia to do the deed are like loud sirens calling attention to the plot. ^[13]

Arrest and alleged confession

Manssor Arbabsiar, age 56, is a naturalized U.S. citizen holding an Iranian passport.^[14] He was arrested by federal agents at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York.^[9] Officials said Arbabsiar flew from Iran through Frankfurt, Germany, to Mexico City on 29 September for a final planning session, but was refused entry to Mexico. He was deported back to Iran, and put on a plane to New York, where he was arrested in transit.^[15] According to the DOJ, Arbabsiar waived his Miranda rights shortly after his arrest and allegedly confessed to his participation in the plot.^[16]

The Department of Justice claims that Gholam Shakuri is a member of Iran's special operations unit Quds Force and is still at large.^[9] However Iran claims that Shakori belongs to an Iranian exile opposition group that aims to overthrow the Iranian regime. ^[17]

Iran's permanent U.N. representative called the confession "suspicious claims by an individual", and suggested his claims were fabricated.^[18]

Alleged responsibility

A debate exists among U.S. officials whether or not the highest echelons of the Iranian government ordered or even knew of the assassination plot. U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that it was "more than likely" that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as head of the Quds Force, Major General Qassem Suleimani, knew of the plot.^[19] No specific information has yet been provided to support such a link, but American officials said it was inconceivable that in Iran's hierarchy Khamenei or Suleimani would not be aware of such an action.^[20] The officials did acknowledge, though, that the plot was far "outside the pattern" of the Quds Force past activity.^[19]

At the same time, a number of prominent Iran experts have questioned the Iranian government's link to the plot.^[20][21] Some believe it was probably just rogue elements in the Iranian government. Suzanne Maloney, senior fellow at The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, said much of what was known of the plot did “not fit the usual patterns of Iran's involvement with terrorist activities. It seems quite credible to me that it could be rogue elements, but I don't know to what degree the Iranian military tolerates such dissent."^[22] Alireza Nader, an Iran analyst at the Rand Corporation, found it "difficult" to believe that Khamenei or Suleimani would order such an attack that "would put all of Iran's objectives and strategies at risk".^[21] If an Iranian agent was responsible planning the assassination attempt, it parallels event in 1998, when the murder of prominent Iranian nationalists and writers was organised by three rogue Iranian secret service operatives, part of the Quds Forces ^[23]

Kenneth Katzman, a Middle East analyst at the Congressional Research Service, said, "There is simply no precedent – or even reasonable rationale – for Iran working any plot, no matter where located, through a non-Muslim proxy such as Mexican drug gangs.... The Iranian modus operandi is only to trust sensitive plots to their own employees, or to trusted proxies such as Hezbollah, Saudi Hezbollah, Hamas, the Sadr faction in Iraq, Iran-friendly extremist Muslims in Afghanistan and other pro-Iranian Muslim groups."^[24]

Reza Sayyah from CNN questioned the plausibility of the claim by asking, "Did an elite branch of Iran's military handpick a divorced, 56-year-old Iranian-American used-car salesman from Texas to hire a hitman from a Mexican drug cartel to assassinate the ambassador to Saudi Arabia by blowing up a bomb in a crowded restaurant in Washington?"^[25]

The key evidence that the alleged plot was serious was the $100,000 wire transfer. It came from a foreign bank account, although not an Iranian account because such transfers are impossible under US law and UN sanctions. The money came from a third country, however source is yet unknown.^{[26] [27]}

Act of war

Several senior U.S. politicians, both Democrat and Republican, have said that this plot could constitute an act of war by Iran. Senator Carl Levin, a Democrat who serves as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee says the plot may be an act of war against the United States. Republican Representative Michael McCaul shared his view.^[28] Republican Senator Mark Kirk called the plot an "act of war" and called on the Obama administration to consider sanctioning the Central Bank of Iran in response. Similarly, Republican Congressman Peter King, currently chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said Iran's actions constituted "an act of war".^[29]

International reactions

US President Barack Obama stated: “Even if at the highest levels there was not detailed operational knowledge, there has to be accountability with respect to anybody in the Iranian government engaging in this kind of activity."^[30] Vice President Joe Biden said that Iran would be held accountable for the plot and described it as "an outrage that violates one of the fundamental premises upon which nations deal with one another and that is the sanctity and safety of their diplomats".^[31] John Boehner, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, said: "It's a very serious breach of international behavior, and I would hope that our administration would hold the Iranian government – hold their feet to the fire over the actions that have been alleged in this complaint."^[32] Secretary of State Hilary Clinton called the incident a "flagrant violation of international and United States law".^[33]

U.S. Congressman Jeff Duncan (R, SC), introduced a House resolution urging the Obama administration to more closely examine terrorist threats in the Western Hemisphere emanating from Iran. The resolution calls for the Obama administration to: “Include the Western Hemisphere in the Administration’s 2012 National Strategy for Counterterrorism’s ‘Area of Focus,’ which was absent in the 2011 edition.” It also calls on the Department of Homeland Security, along with other agencies, “to examine Iran’s presence, activity, and relationships in the Western Hemisphere, including the U.S.” The resolution was co-sponsored by Democrat Congressman Brian Higgins of New York.^[34]

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad denied the accusations, calling them a "fabrication".^[11] Mohammad Khazaee, the Ambassador of Iran to the United Nations, stated that he was "shocked to hear such a big lie" and that the version of events presented by the United States was an "insult to the common sense".^[35] Khazaee wrote in a letter to Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon that Iran “strongly and categorically rejects these fabricated and baseless allegations, based on the suspicious claims by an individual.”^[36] Ali Larijani, chairman of the Iranian parliament, said that the claims asserted by the United States were a "childish game".^[37] A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs told the Iranian Students News Agency that "Iran strongly denies the untrue and baseless allegations".^[38] Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, described the allegations as "meaningless and absurd".^[39]

Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, a former Ambassador of Saudi Arabia to the United States, stated that Iranian involvement in the plot was "overwhelming" and that "somebody in Iran will have to pay the price".^[14]

The Kosovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a statement saying that "The Kosovo Government is relieved that the American authorities managed to prevent the attack in time, but remains concerned at this plot which is against democratic values and international law. We support the United States and Saudi Arabia in a full investigation of the organizers of the attack and we join in democratic states in requiring a clarification from the Iranian authorities for the planned attack. The Republic of Kosovo expresses its solidarity with the American and Saudi Arabian people, who supported Kosovo’s people in difficult times."^[40]

In France, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs released a statement saying: "For France, this is an extremely serious affair, an outrageous violation of international law, and its perpetrators and backers must be held accountable."^[41]

A statement released from the office of British Prime Minister David Cameron stated: "Indications that this plot was directed by elements of the Iranian regime are shocking. We will support measures to hold Iran accountable for its actions."^[37]

The Dutch minister of foreign affairs, Uri Rosenthal, has stated that he is "very, very, very, really exceptionally worried" about the alleged Iranian involvement in a plotted terrorist attack on civilians in the United States.^[42]

Implications

Saudi Arabia and Iran have long competed for power and dominance in the Middle East.^[43] Some Saudi officials have said that the alleged assassination plot would represent an escalation in the confrontation between the two.^[43]

Congressional counter-terrorism advisor Michael S. Smith II of Kronos Advisory, LLC, who presented Congress a report on the Quds Force in April 2011, told Fox News: “If the rapidly expanding presence in our neighborhood of militant Islamist groups which accept directives from Iran's Quds Force special operations unit remains unchecked, the recent plot will most likely come to resemble a tip of the iceberg in terms of what could unfold within America’s borders.”^{[44][45][46][47]}

Aftermath

President Obama imposed new sanctions on Iran the next day, and the White House says that more actions will be taken.^[48] Three weeks after US officials accused Iran of an assassination plot to be carried out on US soil, the House Foreign Affairs Committee voted to expand sanctions against Iran. The far-ranging bill includes targeting Iran's central bank. Such action against Iran's central bank – which serves as a clearinghouse for nearly all oil and gas payments in Iran – will make it more difficult for Iran to sell crude oil, its chief source of cash, by blocking companies doing business with it from also working with US financial institutions. Some Iranian officials have likened such a step to an act of war. ^[49] The House Foreign Affairs Committee has also passed the Iran Threat Reduction Act which makes it illegal for U.S. diplomats to engage their Iranian counterparts, strips the President’s authority to license the repair of Iran’s aging civilian aircraft to prevent civilian deaths, and imposes indiscriminate sanctions that could increase gas prices and hurt the Iranian civil society. ^[50]

See also

• Iran and state terrorism
• United States and state terrorism
• Iran – Saudi Arabia relations
• Iran – United States relations
• Mexican Drug War

References

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3. ^ "Iranians charged in U.S. over assassination plot". Daily Star. 11 October 2011. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Oct-11/151033-iranians-charged-in-us-over-assassination-plot.ashx#axzz1aV42Y4eq. Retrieved 12 October 2011. 
4. ^ Hurtado, Patricia; Van Voris, Bob (11 October 2011). "Arbabsiar Held Without Bail in Alleged Plot to Kill Envoy". Bloomberg Businessweek. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-11/arbabsiar-held-without-bail-in-alleged-plot-to-kill-envoy.html. Retrieved 12 October 2011. 
5. ^ Iran's Khamenei warns U.S. over assassination claims USA TODAY. Accessed: 16 October 2011.
6. ^ Not-Guilty Plea in Plot to Kill Saudi Ambassador to the U.S.. The New York Times. 24 October 2011. Retrieved 25 October 2011.
7. ^ U.S. Challenged to Explain Accusations of Iran Plot in the Face of Skepticism.. The New York Times. 24 October 2011. Retrieved 26 October 2011.
8. ^ Hafezi, Parisa; Jeremy Pelofsky. "U.S. says Iran sought killing of Saudi envoy". Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/us-usa-security-iran-newspro-idUSTRE79B4YA20111012. Retrieved 13 October 2011. 
9. ^ ^{a b c} "Two Men Charged in Alleged Plot to Assassinate Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the United States". Department of Justice. 11 October 2011. http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2011/October/11-ag-1339.html. Retrieved 12 October 2011. 
10. ^ Savage, Charlie; Shane, Scott (11 October 2011). "U.S. Accuses Iranians of Plotting to Kill Saudi Envoy". The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/us/us-accuses-iranians-of-plotting-to-kill-saudi-envoy.html?_r=1. Retrieved 12 October 2011. 
11. ^ ^{a b} "Iranian plot to kill Saudi ambassador thwarted, U.S. officials say". CNN. 12 October 2011. http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/11/justice/iran-saudi-plot/index.html?hpt=hp_t1. Retrieved 12 October 2011. 
12. ^ Punching Holes in the Iran Plot. The Diplomat. 24 October 2011. Retrieved 26 October 2011.
13. ^ [ http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/12/ unanswered-questions-iranian-assassination-plot Unanswered questions over the alleged Iranian assassination plot.]. The Guardian. 15 October 2011. Retrieved 26 October 2011.
14. ^ ^{a b} Hosenball, Mark; Hafezi, Parisa (12 October 2011). "Saudis, U.S. trade charges with Iran over plot". Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/us-usa-security-iran-idUSTRE79A5E020111012?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews. Retrieved 12 October 2011. 
15. ^ "Iran 'Directed' Washington, D.C., Terror Plot, U.S. Says". ABC News. 11 October 2011. http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/us-iran-tied-terror-plot-washington-dc-disrupted/story?id=14711933&page=2. Retrieved 12 October 2011. 
16. ^ "Two Men Charged in Alleged Plot to Assassinate Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the United States". Justice.gov. 11 October 2011. http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2011/October/11-ag-1339.html. Retrieved 15 October 2011. 
17. ^ US plot suspect belongs to exile group: Iran
18. ^ "U.S. official: 'Multiple' sources strengthen case against Iran". CNN News. 13 October 2011. http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/13/world/meast/iran-saudi-plot/. 
19. ^ ^{a b} "U.S. officials: Iran's supreme leader likely knew of plot". Reuters. 12 October 2011. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/us-usa-security-iran-officials-idUSTRE79B50N20111012. Retrieved 5 October 2011. 
20. ^ ^{a b} "U.S. Challenged to Explain Accusations of Iran Plot in the Face of Skepticism". The New York Times. 13 October 2011. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/us/iran-sees-terror-plot-accusation-as-diversion-from-wall-street-protests.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all. Retrieved 13 October 2011. 
21. ^ ^{a b} "Used-car salesman as Iran proxy? Why assassination plot doesn't add up for experts". Christian Science Monitor. 12 October 2011. http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1012/Used-car-salesman-as-Iran-proxy-Why-assassination-plot-doesn-t-add-up-for-experts. Retrieved 13 October 2011. 
22. ^ "Iranian 'rogue elements' led Saudi plot: Analysts" – TimesOnline – 13 October 2011. Retrieved 14 October 2011.
23. ^ http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2001/jan/29/iran
24. ^ "Some Experts Question Iran's Role in Bungled Plot". The New York Times. 12 October 2011. http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/iran-experts-ponder-an-alleged-terror-plots-b-movie-qualities/. Retrieved 13 October 2011. 
25. ^ Legal questions follow Iran's 'bizarre plot'Al Jazeera. Accessed: 17 October 2011.
26. ^ http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/pages/iran.aspx
27. ^ http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/12/unanswered-questions-iranian-assassination-plot?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487
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29. ^ "Obama declares Iran will 'pay a price' for assassination plan as U.S. intelligence chief warns country may be devising other plots". Daily Mail. 13 October 2011. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2048539/It-act-war-Senators-demand-action-murder-plot-urging-Obama-crush-Irans-central-bank.html. Retrieved 5 October 2011. 
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34. ^ House Responds to Iran Threat. Fox News Channel. October 13, 2011
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36. ^ Iranians Accused of a Plot to Kill Saudis’ U.S. Envoy. The New York Times. October 11, 2011
37. ^ ^{a b} "US to pressure Iran over 'plot to kill Saudi envoy'". BBC News. 12 October 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-15269348. Retrieved 12 October 2011. 
38. ^ "Iran slams plot allegations". CNN. http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/12/justice/iran-saudi-plot/?hpt=hp_t2. Retrieved 12 October 2011. 
39. ^ "Iran's supreme leader lambasts U.S. over assassination allegations". CNN. October 15, 2011. http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/15/world/meast/iran-saudi-plot/index.html. Retrieved October 17, 2011. 
40. ^ "The Kosovo Government condemns the plot against the Saudi Arabian Ambassador in Washington". Kosovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 13 October 2011. http://www.mfa-ks.net/?page=2,4,985. Retrieved 17 October 2011. 
41. ^ Valero, Bernard. "Assassination attempt against the Saudi Ambassador". Franceonu.org. Permanent Mission of France to the United Nations. http://www.franceonu.org/spip.php?article5835. Retrieved 13 October 2011. 
42. ^ "Nederland werkt samen met VS aan maatregelen tegen Iran" (in Dutch). Algemeen Dagblad. 12 October 2011. http://www.ad.nl/ad/nl/1013/Buitenland/article/detail/2965473/2011/10/12/Nederland-werkt-samen-met-VS-aan-maatregelen-tegen-Iran.dhtml. Retrieved 13 October 2011. "Rosenthal zei 'zeer, zeer, zeer, echt uitzonderlijk verontrust' te zijn over de vermeende betrokkenheid van het bewind van Iran bij een terreurcomplot tegen doelen in de Verenigde Staten. 'Verontwaardiging is op zijn plaats'. (Rosenthal said there are "very, very, very, truly exceptional concerns" over the alleged involvement of the government of Iran in a terrorist plot against targets in the United States. "Indignation is in place".)" 
43. ^ ^{a b} Perez, Evan (12 October 2011). "U.S. Accuses Iran in Plot". The Wall Street Journal. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203633104576625163343308154.html. Retrieved 12 October 2011. 
44. ^ House Responds to Iran Threat. Fox News Channel. October 13, 2011
45. ^ Report highlights alleged Iran forces al-Qaeda links. AFP. May 4, 2011
46. ^ Plot to kill Saudi ambassador casts light on shadowy group that reports to Iran’s leader. The Associated Press. October 13, 2011
47. ^ The al-Qa’ida-Qods Force Nexus
48. ^ "U.S. alleges Iranian plot to murder Saudi ambassador, imposes new sanctions". Siam Daily News. 12 October 2011.
49. ^ "US pushes toward more biting Iran sanctions". The christian science monitor. 3 November 2011.
50. ^ "Iran Threat Reduction Act". The Huffington Post. 1 November 2011.

External links

• United States Department of Justice complaint
• United States Department of Justice press release