Future referendum on Scottish independence

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A referendum of the Scottish electorate on the issue of independence from the United Kingdom shall be held in either 2014 or 2015.^[1] The Referendum Bills are proposed Scottish Government bills to set out the arrangements for this referendum.

The bill was initially introduced in 2009, but in September 2010 the Scottish National Party minority government announced that they were withdrawing their plan for a referendum before the 2011 elections.^[2]

When plans for the Bill were announced in August 2009, it was not believed it would be passed into law, hence preventing any referendum, due to the lack of support for it by the major opposition parties in the Scottish Parliament. However, the Bill was the centrepiece of the governing Scottish National Party's legislative programme for 2009-10, with the next elections to the Scottish Parliament in May 2011. A white paper for the Bill, setting out four possible options ranging from no change to full Independence, was published on 30 November 2009.

A draft bill for public consultation was published on 25 February 2010, setting out a two question yes/no referendum, proposing both further devolution, and full independence. Rather than an independence referendum, the main opposition parties in Scotland have been supporting the Commission on Scottish Devolution (the Calman Review) process, whose recommendations have had the support of the British government in Westminster, both before and after the change in administration resulting from the May 2010 United Kingdom general election.

The voting age for the referendum is likely to be reduced from 18 to 16.^[3]

Background

Past referendums

A referendum on Scottish devolution was held in 1997; though that did not broach the issue of independence, sufficient support for a devolved Parliament was gained. A less wide ranging proposal was also put to a referendum in 1979, but resulted in no change despite the majority of votes cast being in favour of change.

2007 SNP administration

Further information: Government of the 3rd Scottish Parliament

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at the launch of the National Conversation, 14 August 2007

A commitment to hold a referendum in 2010 was part of the Scottish National Party's election manifesto when it contested the May 2007 Scottish Parliament election.^[4] As a result of that election, it became the largest party in the Scottish Parliament for the first time, and formed a minority administration in the Scottish Executive, the devolved legislative assembly first established in 1999 for dealing with unreserved matters within Scotland. Rebranding the Scottish Executive as the Scottish Government, the SNP administration accordingly launched a 'National Conversation' as a consultation exercise in August 2007, part of which included a draft of a referendum bill, as the Referendum (Scotland) Bill.^[5]

After forming the Scottish Government in 2007, the SNP had a long standing policy of not holding any referendum until 2010, so as to be well into its term.^[6] A call by Wendy Alexander in May 2008, the then leader of the Scottish Labour Party, for the SNP to begin debate on the referendum issue early was rejected by the SNP, and she resigned in June 2008 over a donations row, and the call was not made again by Labour.^[6]

Opposition stance

In December 2007, the main Scottish opposition parties backed the UK Government's plan for creation of the Commission on Scottish Devolution (the Calman Review), chaired by Sir Kenneth Calman, to look into options for further devolution, but ruling out full independence.^[7] The Calman Commission reported in June 2009 shortly before the plans for a Referendum Bill were announced, leading to an alternative process in parallel to the SNP's plans for a referendum, running without their participation.

Ongoing political context

Debating chamber of the Scottish Parliament

At the time the plans for a referendum were announced in early September 2009, only the Scottish Green Party with two MSPs supported the SNP, who number 47 of the total of 129 MSPs. All the other major parties in Parliament, the Scottish Labour Party (46 MSPs), the Scottish Conservative Party (16 MSPs) and Scottish Liberal Democrats (16 MSPs) intended to oppose the Bill.^[6][8] A previous non-binding vote on the issue of a referendum held in March 2009, tabled by the Liberal Democrats as an amendment to a Labour debate on the economy, was defeated with a 25-vote majority (47-72).^[9]

Due to the opposition from other main Scottish Parliament groups and the SNP's status as a minority administration, it was not expected that the SNP would be able to get the Referendum Bill passed into law when ultimately presented to the Scottish Parliament for debate, meaning that the referendum would not be able to be held.^[6][8] It has been speculated that if the Bill was defeated, Scottish independence would become a defining issue of the planned Scottish Parliament election in May 2011.^[6]

History

Legislative plans announced

The legislative plans for the Referendum Bill were announced in late August/early September 2009 by the SNP government, intended to be the centrepiece of their 2009-2010 proposed parliamentary programme, their third legislative session of their 2007.^[10]

2009 party conferences

At the annual Labour national Party Conference in Brighton in September 2009, the Scottish Labour Leader Iain Gray attacked the SNP's proposed referendum, stating that time was not right for a referendum, that Alex Salmond had "no mandate, no majority and no shame", and that the only choice for Scottish voters in the next UK general election was between Labour and the Conservatives.^[11]

Scottish Liberal Democrat Leader Tavish Scott reaffirmed their opposition to a referendum at the Liberal Democrat's annual UK party conference in Bournemouth in September 2009. On 8 October 2009 it was announced that senior MSP Ross Finnie would conduct a review of their position, and a consultation session would be held at the Party's autumn conference in Dunfermline.^[12] On 1 November, following the conference, Tavish Scott re-affirmed their stance to oppose the proposed Referendum Bill, but confirmed that the party would continue to review options for a different type of referendum for its 2011 Scottish Parliament election manifesto.^[13]

Opening the SNP annual party conference in Inverness on 15 October 2009, Alex Salmond declared "Do parties in Scotland really believe that the people of Scotland will give them their votes if they refuse to give the people of Scotland a vote on the constitutional future of the country?", while outlining his hopes to form a Scottish voting block of at least 20 SNP MPs in the next UK general election, to gain influence for Scotland in the event of a hung parliament.^[14] When a hung parliament occurred as a result of the United Kingdom General Election 2010, the SNP failed to form part of the governing coalition.

Calman Review white paper published

On 25 November 2009, based on the findings of the Calman Commission, the UK Labour Government published a white paper on a proposed Scotland Bill.^[15] This detailed new powers would be devolved to the Scottish Government, notably on how it can raise tax and carry out capital borrowing, and the running of Scottish Parliament elections.^[15] These proposals were detailed in a white paper setting out a new Scotland Bill, to become law before the 2015 Holyrood elections.^[15]

The proposal was criticised by the then UK parliament opposition parties for not proposing to implement any changes before the next United Kingdom general election. The SNP Scottish Constitution Minister Michael Russell criticised the white paper, calling it "flimsy" and stating the proposed Referendum Bill, whose own white paper was to be published five days later, would be "more substantial".^[15] According to The Independent, the Calman Review white paper proposals fall short of what would normally be seen as requiring a referendum.^[16]

Referendum Bill white paper published

As a culmination to the National Conversation, a white paper for the proposed Referendum Bill was published on St. Andrew's Day on 30 November 2009.^[16][17] The 176 page paper was titled, "Your Scotland, Your Voice".^[18] The paper detailed four possible scenarios, with the text of the Bill and Referendum to be revealed later.^[16] The scenarios were: No Change, Devolution per the Calman Review, Full Devolution, and Full Independence.^[16] The Full Devolution option, while short of Independence, would make the Scottish Parliament responsible for the 'vast majority' of tax and spending in Scotland, with a remittance paid to the UK to "cover common UK public goods and services such as defence and foreign affairs."^[16] The paper acknowledged that while the SNP government did not support anything other than full independence, the Referendum Bill would have provisions for a multi-option referendum, and called on opposition parties to propose a suitable form for these options, which had according to the paper been shown by the National Conversation to have support in Scotland.^[16]

Draft Bill published for consultation

The Scottish Government published a draft version of the bill on Burns night, 25 February 2010, for public consultation.^[19][20] The 84 page document was titled Scotland's Future: Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bill Consultation Paper and contained a consultation document and a draft version of the bill.^[21] The consultation paper set out the proposed ballot papers, the mechanics of the proposed referendum, and how the proposed referendum was to be regulated.^[21] Public responses were invited from February 25 to April 30.^[22]

2010 United Kingdom general election

The UK general election was due to take place on or before 3 June 2010, before the Scottish Parliament elections due in May 2011. It was eventually called on 6 May 2010, and while the SNP hoped for influence in a hung parliament, the election instead led to a change in Westminster from a Labour majority government under Gordon Brown to a Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition government. The SNP failed however to increase their number of Westminster seats, falling well short of their declared target of 20, albeit holding their 6 constituencies won in 2005 but losing heavily to Labour in the Glasgow East seat won in a 2008 by-election.

Post election

After the change in government following the 2010 general election, the new Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition government committed itself in its May 2010 Coalition Agreement to implementing the proposals of the Calman Commission.^[23] It was believed that this new Scotland Bill could be introduced as early as the Autumn.^[24] On 31 May 2010 the Scottish Liberal Democrats invited the SNP to join the steering group brought together to oversee its implementation, which the SNP had thus far refused to participate in, with the offer of a 'Calman Plus' type package, similar to the 'devolution max' proposal included in the draft referendum bill.^{[25][clarification needed]}

On 6 June 2010 the Scottish Government published 189 of the 222 responses received during the draft bill consultation period.^{[26][clarification needed]}

Draft Bill details

Ballot procedure

The draft bill outlines a referendum posing two yes/no questions to the electorate. Voting would be held in a single day, and can be in person at a polling booth, by proxy, or by post.^[21] Votes would be counted by hand, and a national declaration of the result would then be made.^[21] A 'yes' result for either question would be determined by simple majority, i.e. more than 50%.^[21] This means that it would be possible for a majority to be reached in the referendum without a majority of Scots supporting either proposition.

The referendum questions are to be presented as 'Proposal 1' and 'Proposal 2', to be presented on separate, differently coloured, ballot papers.^[21] The first proposal is whether there should be an extension of the powers and responsibilities of the Scottish Parliament, short of independence; while the second is whether the Scottish Parliament should "also have its powers extended to enable independence to be achieved".^[21] Voters are to be allowed to vote on both proposals, by placing an X in a box against either, "Yes, I agree", or "No, I do not agree", on each ballot paper.^[21]

Two possible versions for the wording of Proposal 1 were presented for consultation, one proposing an extension of power based on the financial recommendations of the Calman Commission, the other proposing full devolution with only some matters left to the UK parliament (sometimes called "devolution max").^[21]

Ballot paper

Proposal 1: Additional Powers

Version 1 of Proposal 1, outlining full devolution or 'devolution max', proposes that the Scottish Parliament should be responsible for "all laws, taxes and duties in Scotland.", with the exception of "defence and foreign affairs; financial regulation, monetary policy and the currency.", which would be retained by the UK government.^[21]

Titled "Increased powers and responsibilities for Scotland", it states:^[21]

• The Scottish Parliament should have its powers and responsibilities extended as described above.

Version 2 of Proposal 1, outlining Calman type fiscal reform, proposes that the Scottish Parliament should gain the additional powers and responsibilities of setting a Scottish rate of income tax that could vary by up to 10p in the pound compared to the rest of the UK, setting the rate of stamp duty land tax and "other minor taxes", and introducing new taxes in Scotland with the agreement of the UK Parliament, and finally, "limited power to borrow money."^[21]

Titled "Increased financial powers and responsibilities for Scotland", it states:^[21]

• The Scottish Parliament should have its financial powers and responsibilities extended as recommended by the Commission on Scottish Devolution.

Proposal 2: Full Independence

Proposal 2, outlining the option for full independence, proposes that the Scottish Parliament would gain the powers to be able to convert Scotland into a country which would "have the rights and responsibilities of a normal, sovereign state".^[21] This state would be a full Member State of the European Union, with the consequent social and economic relationship with the remainder of the UK which is already a member.^[21] Queen Elizabeth would remain as Scotland's head of state, while the United Kingdom would "become a monarchical and social Union – united kingdoms rather than a United Kingdom – maintaining a relationship forged in 1603 by the Union of the Crowns".^[21] The currency of Scotland would remain as the pound sterling (£) unless or until the Scottish electorate chose to adopt the Euro (€), which would be left to a separate referendum.^[21]

Titled "Additional power to enable Scotland to become an independent country", it states:^[21]

• The Scottish Government proposes that, in addition to the extension of the powers and responsibilities of the Scottish Parliament set out in Proposal 1, the Parliament’s powers should also be extended to enable independence to be achieved.

Eligibility

The following people would be entitled to vote in the referendum:^[21]

• British citizens resident in Scotland;
• Commonwealth citizens resident in Scotland;
• citizens of other EU countries resident in Scotland;
• members of the House of Lords resident in Scotland;
• Service/Crown personnel serving in the UK or overseas in the armed forces or with Her Majesty's Government who are registered to vote in Scotland.

People aged 16 or 17 will be allowed to vote if registered on the date of the poll,^[22] in-line with the Scottish Government's desire to reduce the voting age in Scotland to 16.^[21]

Referendum Commission

The Scottish Government proposes to set up the Scottish Referendum Commission to oversee the referendum, whose members would be "nominated by, and accountable to, the Scottish Parliament."^[22] The commission was to be "with limited exceptions, be completely independent of the Scottish Parliament and Government in the conduct of its affairs", and be modelled on the UK's Electoral Commission.^[21] The rules on how to conduct the poll and campaigns for the referendum would be based on existing UK legislation,^[22] being broadly formed from the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.^[21] A Chief Counting Officer for the poll would be appointed by Scottish ministers, and be selected from an existing or former Scottish election Returning Officer.^[21]

Campaign funding

For each specific proposal outcome that can be campaigned for, there would be allowed to exist one 'designated organisation', permitted to spend up to £750,000 on their campaign, including expenses, but they would also be entitled to one free mailshot to every household or voter in the poll.^[21] Political parties represented in the Scottish Parliament would be limited to a campaign budget of £100,000 including expenses, in addition to any activity through affiliation with one of the designated organisations.^[21]

Referendum date

The SNP plan as of September 2009 was for the referendum to be held on or about 30 November 2010, a significant date to Scottish national identity, being St. Andrew's Day.^[8]

However in May 2011, the SNP won an Overall majority in the Scottish Parliamentary Election, gaining 69 seats out of 129, therefore enough to hold an Independence Referendum.

Cost

According to the Scottish Government's consultation paper published on 25 February 2010, the cost of holding the referendum is "likely to be around £9.5 million", mostly spent on running the poll and the count.^[21] Costs would also include the posting of one neutral information leaflet about the referendum to every Scottish household, and one free mailshot to every household or voter in the poll for the 'designated organisations' (See Campaign funding).^[21] There is to be no public funding for campaigns, which would also be subject to spending limits.^[21]

Potential consequences

Under the current system of devolution for Scotland, the Scottish Government does not have within its remit the power to declare independence from the United Kingdom, with the constitution being a reserved matter for the supreme legislative body in the UK, the Parliament of the United Kingdom, based in Westminster, London.^[6] According to the Scottish Government, the proposed referendum is therefore an "advisory referendum on extending the powers of the Scottish Parliament",^[22] whose result "will have no legal effect on [the United Kingdom]."^[21]

According to the Scottish Government's consultation paper published on 25 February 2010, if there was a 'yes, yes' outcome of the poll, then following the "necessary negotiations" between the Scottish and UK governments, "it would then be for the Scottish and UK Parliaments to act on the expressed will of the Scottish people".^[21] If there was a yes vote for Proposal 1 (further devolution) but not Proposal 2 (powers for independence), then depending on the measures voted for, they would be implemented by Order in Council, Sewel Motion, or a combination of the two.^[21]

With regard to legislative competence, the Scottish Government believes that Scottish Parliamentary consideration of a referendum bill, in its proposed draft form, is legitimate, under the built in flexibility of the Scotland Act 1998.^[21]

See also

• Constitution of the United Kingdom
• History of Scottish devolution
• History of the Scottish National Party
• Politics of the United Kingdom
• Referendums in the United Kingdom

References

1. ^ Gardham, Magnus (2 May 2011). "Holyrood election 2011: Alex Salmond: Referendum on Scottish independence by 2015". The Daily Record. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics-news/2011/05/02/alex-salmond-referendum-on-scottish-independence-by-2015-86908-23102061/. Retrieved 3 August 2011. 
2. ^ "Scottish independence plan 'an election issue'". BBC News. 2010-09-06. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11196967. 
3. ^ Macdonnell, Hamish (17 September 2011). "16-year-olds likely to get the vote on Union split". The Times Scotland (London: Times Newspapers Limited). http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article3167034.ece. Retrieved 18 September 2011. 
4. ^ "Manifesto 2007". Scottish National Party. 12 April 2007. pp. 8, 15. http://www.snp.org/system/files/manifesto+programme.pdf. Retrieved 2009-09-11. 
5. ^ "Annex B Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bill". Official website, Publications > 2007 > August > Choosing Scotland's Future: A National Conversatio > Part 10. Scottish Government. 2009-08-13. Archived from the original on 2009-09-10. http://www.webcitation.org/5jgh02AMe. Retrieved 2009-09-10. 
6. ^ ^{a b c d e f} Black, Andrew (2009-09-03). "Q&A: Independence referendum". BBC News. Archived from the original on 2009-09-10. http://www.webcitation.org/5jgkwdqHv. Retrieved 2009-09-10. 
7. ^ "Devolution body members announced". BBC News. 2008-04-28. Archived from the original on 2009-11-30. http://www.webcitation.org/5lfr2aCjv. Retrieved 2009-11-30. 
8. ^ ^{a b c} MacLeod, Angus (2009-09-03). "Salmond to push ahead with referendum Bill". London: The Times. Archived from the original on 2009-09-10. http://www.webcitation.org/5jgoTKBiL. Retrieved 2009-09-10. 
9. ^ Carrell, Severin (2009-03-05). "Alex Salmond's Scottish independence referendum bill 'dead in the water'". London: The Guardian. Archived from the original on 2009-09-10. http://www.webcitation.org/5jh1lijyW. Retrieved 2009-09-10. 
10. ^ "Bills in the 2009-10 Programme for Scotland". Official website, About > Programme for Government > 2009-10 > Summaries of Bills. Scottish Government. 2009-09-03. Archived from the original on 2009-09-10. http://www.webcitation.org/5jgg0Zjut. Retrieved 2009-09-10. 
11. ^ "'Wrong time' to hold referendum". BBC News. 2009-09-28. Archived from the original on 2009-10-01. http://www.webcitation.org/5kCf995sX. Retrieved 2009-10-01. 
12. ^ "Lib Dems mount referendum review". BBC News. 2009-10-08. Archived from the original on 2009-10-11. http://www.webcitation.org/5kRyAV0At. Retrieved 2009-10-11. 
13. ^ "No Lib Dem backing for referendum". BBC News. 2009-11-01. Archived from the original on 2009-11-30. http://www.webcitation.org/5lfq5MUHn. Retrieved 2009-11-30. 
14. ^ "Salmond in election rallying call". BBC News. 2009-10-15. Archived from the original on 2009-10-15. http://www.webcitation.org/5kY23YjIk. Retrieved 2009-10-15. 
15. ^ ^{a b c d} "New Holyrood powers planned after Calman review". BBC News. 2009-11-25. Archived from the original on 2009-11-30. http://www.webcitation.org/5lfp99q0W. Retrieved 2009-11-30. 
16. ^ ^{a b c d e f} Quinn, Joe (2009-11-30). "SNP reveals vision for independence referendum". London: The Independent. Archived from the original on 2009-11-30. http://www.webcitation.org/5lfqjoj1A. Retrieved 2009-11-30. 
17. ^ "Your Scotland, Your Voice". www.scotland.gov.uk > News > News Releases > 2009 > November > YSYV. Scottish Government. 2009-11-30. Archived from the original on 2009-11-30. http://www.webcitation.org/5lfsTqyxt. Retrieved 2009-11-30. 
18. ^ "Your Scotland, Your Voice" (pdf). Scottish Government. 2009-11-30. pp. 176. Archived from the original on 2009-11-30. http://www.webcitation.org/5lfsmWWId. Retrieved 2009-11-30. 
19. ^ "Scottish independence referendum plans published". BBC News. 2010-02-25. Archived from the original on 2010-02-25. http://www.webcitation.org/5no5PTJqS. Retrieved 2010-02-25. 
20. ^ "Referendum consultation". www.scotland.gov.uk > News > News Releases > 2010 > February > referendum. Scottish Government. 2010-02-25. Archived from the original on 2010-02-25. http://www.webcitation.org/5no62MiL0. Retrieved 2010-02-25. 
21. ^ ^{a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af} "Scotland's Future: Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bill Consultation Paper" (pdf). www.scotland.gov.uk > Publications > 2010 > February > Scotland's Future: Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bil > PDF 1. Scottish Government. 2010-02-25. Archived from the original on 2010-02-25. http://www.webcitation.org/5no62m3yB. Retrieved 2010-02-25. 
22. ^ ^{a b c d e} "Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bill Consultation". www.scotland.gov.uk > Topics > Public Sector > Elections > Referendum Bill Consultation. Scottish Government. undated. Archived from the original on 2010-02-25. http://www.webcitation.org/5no63ChPc. Retrieved 2010-02-25. 
23. ^ "The Coalition:our programme for government" (pdf). United Kingdom Government. May 2010. p. 28. http://programmeforgovernment.hmg.gov.uk/files/2010/05/coalition-programme.pdf. Retrieved 2010-06-20. 
24. ^ "Queen's Speech outlines new Scottish Parliament powers". BBC News. 2010-05-25. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/10149102.stm. Retrieved 2010-06-20. 
25. ^ MacLeod, Angus (2010-05-31). "Lib Dems woo SNP over Calman Plus scheme". London: The Times. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7140589.ece. Retrieved 2010-06-20. 
26. ^ "Scotland's Future: Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bill Consultation Paper - Consultation Responses". www.scotland.gov.uk > Publications > 2010 > May > Scotland's Future: Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bil > content. Scottish Government. 2010-06-06. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/05/24131023/0. Retrieved 2010-06-20. 

External links

• Scottish Government