38th New Brunswick general election

This article is about the 38th general election for the province of New Brunswick. For other uses, see 38th New Brunswick general election (disambiguation).

38th New Brunswick general election

2010 ← members September 22, 2014 (2014-09-22) (tentative) members → 39th

55 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick 28 seats are needed for a majority   Leader David Alward Party Progressive Conservative Liberal Leader since  October 18, 2008 2011 or 2012 Leader's seat Woodstock Last election 42 seats, 48.4% 13 seats, 34.2% Current seats 42 13

Incumbent Premier David Alward Progressive Conservative

The 38th New Brunswick general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on September 22, 2014,^[1][2] to elect 55 members to the 58th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.

The Lieutenant-Governor of New Brunswick – acting on the advice of the Premier – could alter the date by one week or one month in either direction if there is a conflict due to religious or culture reasons, or a federal election.^[3]

Timeline

• September 27, 2010 - The Progressive Conservatives under David Alward win 42 of 55 seats. The Liberals are reduced to 13 seats and Shawn Graham announces that he will step down as leader.^[4]
• October 25, 2010 - NDP leader Roger Duguay resigns. The NDP says they will select a new leader within six months.^[5]
• March 2, 2011 - Dominic Cardy is acclaimed as the new leader of the NDP.^[6]

Target ridings

The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost (by up to 15%) by the indicated party. For instance, under the Liberal column are the seats in which they came closest to winning from the Conservatives, while under the Conservative column are the seats in which they came closest to winning from the Liberals. Listed is the name of the riding, and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.

These ridings are likely to be targeted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 2010 election.

Progressive Conservative	Liberal	New Democrats
Bathurst (1.16) Moncton East (2.56) Rogersville-Kouchibouguac (3.58) Caraquet (8.5) Miramichi-Bay du Vin (10.18) Dieppe Centre-Lewisville (11.33) Nigadoo-Chaleur (11.62) Dalhousie-Restigouche East (13.3) Charlotte-The-Isles (14.37)	Saint John Harbour (0.21) Fredericton-Lincoln (4.2) Miramichi Bay-Neguac (5.31) Saint John East (4.78) Grand Falls-Drummond-Saint-André (5.51) Fredericton-Silverwood (6.09) Moncton North (8.36) Nepisiguit (8.52) Miramichi Centre (9.6) Fredericton-Nashwaaksis (12.28) Victoria-Tobique (12.67) Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak (13.01) Saint John Portland (14.79)	Saint John Harbour (3.03) Saint John East (14.15)

Opinion polls

Polling Firm	Date of Polling	Progressive Conservative	Liberal	New Democrats	Green	People's Alliance	MOE	Source
Corporate Research Associates	August 15–31, 2011	41	34	23		3	±4.9%	[7]
Corporate Research Associates	May 12–31, 2011	56	20	20	1	3	±3.5%	[8]
Corporate Research Associates	February 9–28, 2011	58	27	8	6		±4.9%	[9]
Corporate Research Associates	November, 2010	61	25	10	4			[9]
Election 2010	September 27, 2010	48.4	34.2	10.3	4.5	1.2		[10]

Candidates and electoral districts

The districts used in the 2006 and 2010 elections will be adjusted through an electoral redistribution following the results of the Canada 2011 Census.^[11]

References

1. ^ Section 2(4) of the Legislative Assembly Act[1]
2. ^ Elections New Brunswick names 2006 election 36th[2]
3. ^ Section 2(6) of the Legislative Assembly Act [3]
4. ^ CBC News Online. "Graham may not join Grits in opposition."[4]
5. ^ CBC News Online. "N.B. NDP leader resigns."[5]
6. ^ CBC News Online. "Cardy is N.B.'s new NDP leader."[6]
7. ^ "Support for New Brunswick Conservative Government Declines" (PDF) (Press release). Saint John: Corporate Research Associates. September 6, 2011. http://cra.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/11-3-CRA-NB-Press-Release.pdf. Retrieved October 9, 2011. 
8. ^ "Satisfaction With Government Increases Significantly" (PDF) (Press release). Saint John: Corporate Research Associates. June 7, 2011. http://cra.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/11-2-NB-Press-Release.pdf. Retrieved October 9, 2011. 
9. ^ ^{a b} "Satisfaction with PCs Has Increased" (Press release). Saint John: Corporate Research Associates. March 7, 2011. http://cra.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/11-1-NB-Press-Release.pdf. Retrieved October 9, 2011. 
10. ^ (PDF) Thirty-Seventh General Election – September 27, 2010 (Report). Elections New Brunswick. http://www.gnb.ca/elections/pdf/2010ProvRpt.pdf. Retrieved October 9, 2011. 
11. ^ Electoral Boundaries and Representation Act [7]