Conservative targets for next UK election

The following list shows the parliamentary seats which the Conservative Party would need to gain at the next UK General Election in order to win an overall majority in the House of Commons, at Westminster if there were the same swing in every constituency. The figures have been compiled using the Media Guide to the new Parliamentary constituencies (ISBN 0948858 45 1) published by the University of Plymouth's Election Centre in association with the BBC, ITN, the Press Association and Sky News. These figures will be the ones used on Election Night.

Key Seat: The seat that marks the dividing line between each table
"Three / Four Way Marginal": A seat where all of the major parties contesting the seat are less than 20% apart

Conservative Benchmarks
If the Conservatives win only the seats between Gillingham and Rainham and Dorset South, Gordon Brown will remain Prime Minister.
If the Conservatives win only the seats between Gillingham and Rainham and Hammersmith, Gordon Brown will be the leader of the largest party in a hung Parliament.
If the Conservatives win only the seats between Gillingham and Rainham and Cleveleys and Ipswich, David Cameron will be the leader of the largest party in a hung Parliament.
If the Conservatives win all the seats on the list, David Cameron will become Prime Ministe.r
NB: The contituency of Sittingbourne and Sheppey has been omitted from this table through an oversight. It stands as the third most marginal constituency in the list, the current Labour MP (Derek Wyatt) had only a majority of 79 in the 2005 election.{| class="wikitable" style="width:650px"!rowspan=1 width="50px"|Rank!rowspan=1 width="300px"|Constituency!colspan=2 width="200px"|Winning party!rowspan=1 width="50px"|Swing needed
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1
Gillingham and Rainham
0.02
-
2
Crawley
0.04
-
3
"York Outer"
0.22
-
4
Romsey and Southampton North
0.23
-
5
Harlow
0.29
-
6
Cheltenham
0.33
-
7
Croydon Central
0.36
-
8
Portsmouth North
0.38
-
9
Battersea
0.41
-
10
Hove
0.50
-
11
Somerton and Frome
0.56
-
12
Eastleigh
0.56
-
13
Westmorland and Lonsdale
0.85
-
14
Milton Keynes North
0.86
-
15
Stroud
0.93
-
16
Dartford
0.95
-
17
Basildon South and Thurrock East
1.07
-
18
"Ealing Central and Acton"
1.08
-
19
City of Chester
1.10
-
20
Hereford and Herefordshire South
1.19
-
21
"Colne Valley"
1.26
-
22
Cardiff North
1.26
-
23
Hastings and Rye
1.27
-
24
Calder Valley
1.37
-
25
Stourbridge
1.46
-
26
Carshalton and Wallington
1.47
-
27
Milton Keynes South
1.52
-
28
Corby
1.56
-
29
Taunton Deane
1.65
-
30
Perth and Perthshire North
1.66
-
31
Vale of Glamorgan
1.68
-
32
Swindon South
1.75
-
33
Dorset South
1.86
-
34
Northampton South
1.89
-
35
High Peak
1.90
-
36
Loughborough
1.94
-
37
Aberconwy
1.96
-
38
"Watford"
1.97
-
39
Birmingham, Edgabaston
2.00
-
40
Stafford
2.00
-
41
Angus
2.10
-
42
Broxtowe
2.22
-
43
Chippenham
2.35
-
44
Burton
2.40
-
45
Brighton, Kemptown
2.42
-
46
Bury North
2.52
-
47
Redditch
2.60
-
48
Rugby
2.60
-
49
Pendle
2.65
-
50
Wolverhampton South West
2.66
-
51
Carmarthenshire West and Pembrokeshire South
2.66
-
52
Ribble South
2.71
-
53
Derbyshire South
2.73
-
54
Bristol North West
2.85
-
55
Dumfries and Galloway
2.87
-
56
Tamworth
2.94
-
57
Torbay
3.01
-
58
Cleethorpes
3.03
-
59
Sutton and Cheam
3.11
-
60
Swindon North
3.12
-
61
Westminster North
3.30
-
62
Worcester
3.39%
-
63
Cornwall North
3.43
-
64
Harrow East
3.44
-
65
Richmond Park
3.55
-
66
Great Yarmouth
3.69
-
67
Cheadle
3.70
-
68
Eltham
3.80
-
69
Brigg and Goole
3.92
-
70
Portsmouth South
4.00
-
71
Bedford
4.02
-
72
Stevenage
4.03
-
73
Hendon
4.03
-
74
Chatham and Aylesford
4.13
-
75
Brentford and Isleworth
4.14
-
76
Bradford West
4.17
-
77
Rossendale and Darwen
4.18
-
78
Hammersmith
4.22
-
79
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
4.24
-
80
Halifax
4.38
-
81
Lancaster and Fleetwood
4.41
-
82
Dewsbury
4.44
-
83
Dudley South
4.45
-
84
"Northampton North"
4.50
-
85
"Edinburgh South"
4.56
-
86
Warrington South
4.58
-
87
Truro and Falmouth
4.63
-
88
Wirral South
4.65
-
89
Southport
4.66
-
90
Lincoln
4.74
-
91
Leicestershire North West
4.75
-
92
Wyre Forest
4.76
-
93
Gedling
4.82
-
94
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
4.83
-
95
Nuneaton
4.87
-
96
"Ochil and Perthshire South"
4.95
-
97
"Leeds North West"
5.02
-
98
Brecon and Radnorshire
5.09
-
99
"Camborne and Redruth"
5.13
-
100
Warwick and Leamington
5.17
-
101
Dover
5.20
-
102
Keighley
5.24
-
103
Newton Abbot
5.25
-
104
Devon North
5.35
-
105
Poplar and Limehouse
5.42
-
106
Stirling
5.46
-
107
Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport
5.56
-
108
Dudley North
5.57
-
109
Elmet and Rothwell
5.71
-
110
Reading West
5.74
-
111
Tynemouth
5.83
-
112
Morecambe and Lunesdale
5.87
-
113
Pudsey
5.87
-
114
Cornwall South East
5.89
-
115
Ipswich
5.91
-
116
Bolton West
5.98
-