United States and weapons of mass destruction

The federal government of the United States is known to have possessed three types of weapons of mass destruction: nuclear weapons, chemical weapons and biological weapons. The U.S. is the only country to have used nuclear weapons in combat. The U.S. also used chemical weapons in World War I, but has not done so since the 1925 Geneva Protocol. The U.S. arsenal of weapons of mass destruction is the second largest in the world, its arsenal topped only by that of Russia. [http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/summary.htm Nuclear Forces Guide ] ] [ http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nukestatus.html World Nuclear Status] ["Iran Likely to Take Accusatory Stance at CWC Review Conference", http://www.wmdinsights.org/I24/I24_G3_IranLikely.htm, Ben Radford, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, April 2008]

The United States' attitude towards these weapons has been claimed to be primarily defensive, and the actual use of such weapons seen as inhumane unless first provoked. As President Roosevelt stated during World War II:Since Roosevelt's statement, the U.S. has destroyed its biological weapons and begun destroying its chemical weapons. The U.S. is a participant in the Biological Weapons Convention and the Chemical Weapons Convention which ban the production, possession or use of those classes of weapons. The U.S. retains a large arsenal of nuclear weapons as a defensive deterrent, limited by several international and bilateral treaties.

Nuclear weapons

Nuclear weapons have twice been deployed in wartime: two nuclear weapons were used by the United States against Japan in World War II in the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Altogether, the two bombings killed an estimated 200,000 Japanese citizens and injured another 130,000. The overwhelming majority of the casualties were civilian.

The U.S. conducted an extensive nuclear testing program. 1054 tests were conducted between 1945 and 1992. The exact number of nuclear devices detonated is unclear because some tests involved multiple devices while a few failed to explode or were designed not to create a nuclear explosion. The United States ceased atmospheric testing after November 4, 1962 before the Partial Test Ban Treaty. In 1976 the U.S. and the Soviet Union agreed to limit the size of tests to 150 kilotons. The last U.S. nuclear test was on September 23, 1992 before the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

Currently, the United States nuclear arsenal is deployed in three areas::* Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs;:* Sea-based, nuclear submarine-launched ballistic missiles, or SLBMs; and:* Air-based nuclear weapons of the U.S. Air Force's heavy bomber group

The United States is one of the five "Nuclear Weapons States" under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which the US ratified in 1968. On October 13, 1999, the U.S. Senate rejected ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, having previously ratified the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963. The U.S. has not, however, tested a nuclear weapon since 1992, though it has tested many non-nuclear components and has developed powerful supercomputers in an attempt to duplicate the knowledge gained from testing without the actual tests themselves.

In the early 1990s, the U.S. shifted out of the mode of developing new nuclear weapons and instead devotes most of its nuclear efforts into stockpile stewardship, maintaining and dismantling its now-aging arsenal. The administration of George W. Bush decided in 2003 to engage in research about a new generation of small nuclear weapons, especially "earth penetrators" . [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3126141.stm BBC NEWS | Americas | Mini-nukes on US agenda ] ] The budget passed by the United States Congress in 2004 eliminated funding for some of this research including the "bunker-busting or earth-penetrating" weapons.

The exact number of nuclear weapons possessed by the United States is difficult to determine. Different treaties and organizations have different criteria for reporting nuclear weapons, especially those held in reserve, and those being dismantled or rebuilt::* As of 1999, the U.S. was said to have 12,000 nuclear weapons of all types stockpiled. :* In its Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) declaration for 2003, the U.S. listed 5968 deployed warheads as defined by START rules. [ [http://www.state.gov/t/ac/rls/fs/2004/30816pf.htm] ] :* For 2007, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists listed the U.S. with about 5,400 total nuclear warheads: around 3,575 strategic and 500 nonstrategic warheads; and about 1,260 additional warheads held in the inactive stockpile. Other warheads are in some step of the disassembly process.http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/pr53n270241156n6/fulltext.pdf]

In 2002, the United States and Russia agreed in the SORT treaty to reduce their deployed stockpiles to not more than 2,200 warheads each. In 2003, the US rejected Russian proposals to further reduce both nation's nuclear stockpiles to 1,500 each. [ [http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/IB98030.pdf Nuclear Arms Control: The U.S.-Russian Agenda ] ] Fact|date=March 2008 In 2007, for the first time in 15 years, the United States built some new warheads. These were to replace some older warheads as part of the Minuteman III upgrade program. 2007 also saw the first Minuteman III missiles removed from service as part of the drawdown. Overall, stockpile numbers and deployment systems continued to decline as the U.S. approaches the levels prescribed in the SORT treaty which must be achieved by 2012.

Land-based intercontinental ballistic and cruise missiles (ICBMs)

The US Air Force currently operates about 450-500 ICBMs at around 15 missile complexes located primarily in the northern Rocky Mountain states and the Dakotas. These are all of the Minuteman III ICBM variants. Peacekeeper missiles were phased out of the Air Force inventory in 2005. All USAF Minuteman II missiles have been destroyed in accordance to START and their launch silos sealed or sold to the public. To comply with the START II most US multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, have been eliminated and replaced with single warhead missiles. However, since the abandonment of the START II treaty, the U.S. is said to be considering retaining 500 warheads on 450 missiles. The U.S. goal under the SORT treaty is to reduce from 1,600 warheads deployed on over 500 missiles in 2003 to 500 warheads on 450 missiles in 2012. The first Minuteman III were removed under this plan in 2007 while, at the same time, the warheads deployed on Minuteman IIIs began to be upgraded from smaller W62s to larger W87s from decommissioned Peacekeeper missiles.

ea-based ICBMs

The US Navy currently has 14 SSBN "Ohio"-class submarines deployed. Each submarine is equipped with a complement of 24 Trident II missiles. Approximately 12 U.S. attack submarines are equipped to launch, but do not currently carry nuclear Tomahawk missiles. Sea-launch weapons make up the majority of weapons declared under START II rules. Some Trident missiles are equipped with the W88 warhead, the most powerful weapon in the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

Heavy bomber group

The US Air Force also operates a strategic nuclear bomber fleet. The bomber force consists of 94 B-52s, and 20 B-2s. The Strategic Air Command which for decades had kept nuclear weapons aboard bomber aircraft aloft 24 hours a day was disbanded in 1992 and merged into the US Strategic Command. All 64 B-1s were retrofitted to operate in a solely conventional mode by 2007 and are no longer counted as nuclear forces.

In addition to this, the US armed forces can also deploy tactical smaller nuclear weapons either through cruise missiles or with conventional fighter-bombers. The U.S. maintains about 400 nuclear gravity bombs capable of use by F-15, F-16, and F-35. Some 350 of these bombs are deployed at seven airbases in six European NATO countries; of these, 180 tactical B61 nuclear bombs fall under a nuclear sharing arrangement. ["Belgium, Germany Question U.S. Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe",Oliver Meier, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_06/Belgium_Germany_Tactical.asp, June 2005]

Biological weapons

The United States offensive biological weapons program was instigated by President Franklin Roosevelt and the U.S. Secretary of War in October 1941. [ [http://www7.nationalacademies.org/archives/cbw.html Committees on Biological Warfare, 1941-1948 ] ] Research occurred at several sites. A production facility was built at Terre Haute, Indiana but testing with a benign agent demonstrated contamination of the facility so no production occurred during World War II. [United States: Biological Weapons, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/cbw/bw.htm, Federation of American Scientists, October 19, 1998] A more advanced production facility was constructed in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, which began producing biological agents in 1954. Fort Detrick, Maryland later became a production facility as well as a research site. The U.S. developed anti-personnel and anti-crop biological weapons. [ [http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/cbw/bw.htm United States ] ] Several deployment systems were developed including aerial spray tanks, aerosol spray canisters, grenades, rocket warheads and cluster bombs. (See also US Biological Weapon Testing)

In mid-1969, the UK and the Warsaw Pact, separately, introduced proposals to the UN to ban biological weapons, which would lead to a treaty in 1972. The U.S. cancelled its offensive biological weapons program by executive order in November 1969 (microorganisms) and February 1970 (toxins) and ordered the destruction of all offensive biological weapons, which occurred between May 1971 and February 1973. The U.S. ratified the Geneva Protocol on January 22, 1975. The U.S. ratified the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) which came into effect in March 1975.ref_label|RNCBW9.pdf|Kissinger 1969|none

Negotiations for a legally binding verification protocol to the BWC proceeded for years. In 2001, negotiations ended when the Bush administration rejected an effort by other signatories to create a protocol for verification, arguing that it could be abused to interfere with legitimate biological research.

The U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, located in Fort Detrick, Maryland, produces small quantities of biological agents, for use in biological weapons defense research. According to the U.S. government, this research is performed in full accordance with the BWC.

In late 2001 there was series of mysterious anthrax attacks aimed at US media offices and the US Senate which killed five people. The anthrax used in the attacks was the Ames strain, which was first studied at Fort Detrick and then distributed to other labs around the world.:See also|2001 anthrax attacks

Chemical weapons

History

The U.S. had entered into the Hague Conventions of 1899 and 1907 which banned aerial bombing and chemical warfare among other things but which were disregarded in actual combat.

In WWI, the U.S. produced its own munitions as well as deploying weapons produced by the French. The U.S. produced 5,770 metric tons of these weapons, including 1,400 metric tons of phosgene and 175 metric tons of mustard gas. This was about 4% of the total chemical weapons produced for that war and only just over 1% of the era's most effective weapon, mustard gas. (U.S. troops suffered less than 6% of gas casualties.)

After the war, the U.S. was party to the Washington Arms Conference Treaty of 1922 which would have banned chemical weapons but failed because it was rejected by the French. The U.S. continued to stockpile chemical weapons, eventually exceeding 30,000 tons of material.

Chemical weapons were not used by the U.S. or the other Allies, during World War II; however, quantities of such weapons were deployed to Europe for use in case Germany initiated chemical warfare. At least one accident occurred: On the night of December 2, 1943, German JU-88 bombers attacked the port of Bari in Southern Italy, sinking several American ships - among them "John Harvey", which was carrying mustard gas. The presence of the gas was highly classified, and authorities ashore had no knowledge of it - which increased the number of fatalities, since physicians, who had no idea that they were dealing with the effects of mustard gas, prescribed treatment not consistent with those suffering from exposure and immersion. According to the U.S. military account, "Sixty-nine deaths were attributed in whole or in part to the mustard gas, most of them American merchant seamen" out of 628 mustard gas military casualties.ref_label|faq104-4.htm|Navy 2006|noneref_label|3027436.html|Niderost|none Civilian casualties were not recorded. The whole affair was kept secret at the time and for many years after the war.

After the war, the Allies recovered German artillery shells containing three new nerve agents developed by the Germans (Tabun, Sarin, and Soman), prompting further research into nerve agents by all of the former Allies. Thousands of American soldiers were exposed to warfare agents during Cold War testing programs [ [http://www.gulfweb.org/bigdoc/rockrep.cfm IS MILITARY RESEARCH HAZARDOUS TO VETERANS' HEALTH? LESSONS SPANNING HALF A CENTURY. UNITED STATES SENATE, DECEMBER 8, 1994 ] ] as well as in accidents. One such accident in 1968, killed approximately 6,400 sheep when an agent drifted out of Dugway Proving Ground during a test. [ [http://www.gulfweb.org/bigdoc/rockrep.cfm#dugway IS MILITARY RESEARCH HAZARDOUS TO VETERANS' HEALTH? LESSONS SPANNING HALF A CENTURY. UNITED STATES SENATE, DECEMBER 8, 1994 ] ]

The U.S. also investigated a wide range of possible nonlethal, psychobehavioral chemical incapacitating agents including psychedelic indoles such as lysergic acid diethylamide (experimented to see if it could be used for effective mind control) and marijuana derivatives, certain tranquilizers like ketamine or fentanyl, as well as several glycolate anticholinergics. One of the anticholinergic compounds, 3-quinuclidinyl benzilate, was assigned the NATO code BZ and was weaponized at the beginning of the 1960s for possible battlefield use. This agent was allegedly employed by American troops as a counterinsurgency weapon in the Vietnam War but the U.S. maintains that this agent never saw operational use. [ [http://www.brooksidepress.org/Products/OperationalMedicine/DATA/operationalmed/Manuals/RedHandbook/007IncapacitatingAgents.html 007 Incapacitating Agents ] ] The North Koreans and Chinese have alleged that chemical and biological weapons were used by the United States in the Korean War; but, the United States denial is supported by Russian archival documents. [ [http://usinfo.state.gov/media/Archive/2005/Nov/09-262154.html North Korea Persists in 54 year-old Disinformation - US Department of State ] ]

On November 25, 1969, President Richard Nixon unilaterally renounced the first use of chemical weapons and renounced all methods of biological warfare. [ [http://www.state.gov/t/ac/trt/4718.htm Biological Weapons Convention ] ] He issued a unilateral decree halting production and transport of chemical weapons which remains in effect. From 1967 to 1970 in Operation CHASE, the U.S. disposed of chemical weapons by sinking ships laden with the weapons in the deep Atlantic. The U.S. began to research safer disposal methods for chemical weapons in the 1970s, destroying several thousand tons of mustard gas by incineration at Rocky Mountain Arsenal and nearly 4,200 tons of nerve agent by chemical neutralization at Tooele Army Depot and Rocky Mountain Arsenal. [http://www.cma.army.mil/fndocumentviewer.aspx?docid=003676901] The U.S. began stockpile reductions in the 1980s, removing some outdated munitions and destroying its entire stock of BZ beginning in 1988. In 1990, Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal System began destruction of chemical agents stored on Johnston Atoll in the Pacific, seven years before the Chemical Weapons Treaty came into effect. In May 1991, President George H.W. Bush unilaterally committed the United States to destroying all chemical weapons and to renounce the right to chemical weapon retaliation. In 1993, the United States signed the Chemical Weapons Treaty, which required the destruction of all chemical weapon agents, dispersal systems, chemical weapons production facilities by April 2012. The U.S. prohibition on the transport of chemical weapons has meant that destruction facilities had to be constructed at each of the U.S.'s nine storage facilities. The U.S. met the first three of the treaty's four deadlines, destroying 45% of its stockpile of chemical weapons by 2007. However, official expectations for the date of complete elimination of all chemical weapons was after the treaty deadline of 2012.

Treaties

The United States was a party to some of the earliest modern chemical weapons ban treaties, the Hague Conventions of 1899 and the Washington Arms Conference Treaty of 1922 although these treaties were unsuccessful. The U.S. ratified the Geneva Protocol which banned the use of chemical and biological weapons on January 22, 1975. In 1989 and 1990, the U.S. and the Soviet Union entered an agreement to end their chemical weapons programs, including "binary weapons". The United States ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention which came into force in April 1997. This banned the possession of most types of chemical weapons, some of which were possessed by the U.S. at the time. It also banned chemical weapons development, and requires the destruction of existing stockpiles, precursor chemicals, production facilities and weapon delivery systems.

Chemical weapons disposal

According to the U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency on December 19, 2007, the United States has destroyed 52% of the original stockpile of nearly 31,100 metric tons (30,609 long tons) of nerve and mustard agents declared in 1997. [ [http://www.cma.army.mil/newport.aspx# The U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency (CMA) - Newport, IN ] ] Of the weapons destroyed up to 2006, only 500 tons were mustard gas and the majority were other agents such as VX and sarin (GB) (86% of the latter was destroyed by April 2006). [ [http://usinfo.state.gov/is/Archive/2006/Apr/21-578128.html United States Seeks Extension for Chemical Weapons Destruction - US Department of State ] ]

13,996 metric tons (13,775 long tons) of prohibited weapons had been destroyed by June 2007 to meet the Phase III quota and deadline. [U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency, http://www.cma.army.mil/, accessed September 28, 2007] The original commitment in Phase III required all countries to have 45 percent of the chemical stockpiles destroyed by April 2004. Anticipating the failure to meet this deadline, the Bush administration in September 2003 requested a new deadline of December 2007 for Phase III and announced a probable need for an extension until April 2012 for Phase IV, total destruction (requests for deadline extensions cannot formally be made until 12 months before the original deadline). This extension procedure spelled out in the treaty has been utilized by other countries, including Russia and the unnamed "state party". Although April 2012 is the latest date allowed by the treaty, the U.S. also noted that this deadline may not be met due to environmental challenges and the U.S. decision to destroy leaking individual chemical shells before bulk storage chemical weapons. [ [http://www.opcw.org/html/db/cwc/eng/cwc_frameset.html Chemical Weapons Convention ] ] [http://www.opcw.org/docs/csp8_nat_statements/USA.pdf]

The primary chemical weapon storage facilities in the U.S. are Umatilla Chemical Depot in Oregon, Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado, Blue Grass Army Depot in Kentucky, Anniston Chemical Activity in Alabama, Pine Bluff Chemical Activity in Arkansas and Deseret Chemical Depot in Utah. [ [http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/cbw/cw.htm Chemical Weapons United States ] ] The largest of these facilities is Deseret. Other non-stockpile agents (usually test kits) or old buried munitions are occasionally found and are sometimes destroyed in place.

Disposal of chemical munitions is occurring at Umatilla, Anniston, Pine Bluff and the Tooele Chemical Demilitarization Facility (for Deseret). The Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Arkansas began operations on March 29, 2005 after completing in 1988–1990, destruction of munitions containing BZ, a non-lethal hallucinating agent. Pueblo and Blue Grass are constructing pilot plans to test novel methods of disposal but full plants may not open until 2011. The U.S. also uses mobile treatment systems to treat chemical test samples and individual shells without requiring transport from the artillery ranges and abandoned munitions depots where they are occasionally found.

Operations were completed at Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal System where all 640 metric tons were destroyed by 2000 and at Edgewood Chemical Activity in Maryland, with 1,472 metric tons of agent destroyed by February 2006. Newport Chemical Depot in Indiana began destruction operations in May, 2005 and completed operations on August 8, 2008. Hawthorne Army Depot in Nevada destroyed all M687 chemical artillery shells and 458 metric tons of binary precursor chemicals by July 1999. All DF and QL, chemical weapons precursors, were destroyed in 2006 at Pine Bluff.

References

* cite web| url = http://cns.miis.edu/research/wmdme/flow/iraq/seed.htm
title = Obtain Microbial Seed Stock for Standard or Novel Agent
accessdate = 2006-09-18| author = Michael Barletta and Christina Ellington| year = 1998
work = Iraq's Biological Weapons Program| publisher = Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies
*cite web| url = http://www.nti.org/e_research/e1_iraq_BWagents.html
title = BW Agents| accessdate = 2006-09-18
author = Center for Nonproliferation Studies| year = 2003| work = Iraq Profile| publisher = Nuclear Threat Initiative
archiveurl = http://web.archive.org/web/20050308225139/http://nti.org/e_research/e1_iraq_BWagents.html
archivedate = 2005-03-08
* cite web| url = http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB58/RNCBW9.pdf
title = Draft NSDM re United States Policy on Warfare Program and Bacteriological/Biological Research Program
accessdate = 2006-09-18
author = Henry A. Kissinger| date = ca. November 1969| format = PDF
work = Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files| publisher = The National Security Archive "Note: Declassified United States Government Document"
*cite web| url = http://www.history.navy.mil/faqs/faq104-4.htm
title = Naval Armed Guard Service: Tragedy at Bari, Italy on December 2, 1943
accessdate = 2006-09-18| date = August 8, 2006
work = Frequently Asked Questions| publisher = United States Department of the Navy, Naval Historical Center "Note — Original Source: Office of the Chief of Naval Operations. "History of the Armed Guard Afloat, World War II." (Washington, 1946): 166-169."
*cite journal | last = Niderost | first = Eric
title = German Raid on Bari| journal = World War II
url = http://www.historynet.com/magazines/world_war_2/3027436.html| accessdate = 2006-09-18 "Note — [http://www.historynet.com/wwii/blluftwaffeadriatic/ Original URL] redirected to the URL shown here; article lacks date or volume reference."

ee also

* United States missile defense
* List of U.S. chemical weapons topics
* Enduring Stockpile - the name of the United States's remaining arsenal of nuclear weapons following the end of the Cold War.
* Operation Paperclip - the codename under which the US intelligence and military services extricated scientists from Germany, during and after the final stages of World War II.
* Russia and weapons of mass destruction

External links

* [http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F20614FF3D550C758DDDAA0894DB404482 "Iraq links germs for weapons to U.S. and France"] by Philip Shenon, "The New York Times", March 16, 2003 late edition final, section 1, p. 18, retrieved October 8, 2006
* [http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/index.html United States Nuclear Forces Guide]
* [http://www.opcw.org/synthesis/html/s6/p4prt.html Abolishing Weapons of Mass Destruction: Addressing Cold War and Other Wartime Legacies in the Twenty-First Century By Mikhail S. Gorbachev]
* [http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/USA/index.html Nuclear Threat Initiative on United States (note: wrongfully writes that the original commitment to destroy all chemical weapons was for 2004 although this deadline was only for 45% of the stockpiles)]
* [http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Tests/ Nuclear testing history]
* [http://www.cma.army.mil/map.aspx U.S. Army Chemical Weapons Agency website]
* [http://www.internationalterrorist.com/artwork/terrormap_24x36.pdf Map of US WMD's from NY Indymedia]
* [http://www.thebulletin.org/article_nn.php?art_ofn=jf06norris Nuclear Notebook: U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2006, by Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen. "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists", January/February 2006.]
* [http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=nd05cirincione "Lessons Lost," by Joseph Cirincione. "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists", November/December 2005.]
* [http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/basics/nuclear-stockpiles.htm Nuclear Files.org] Current information on nuclear stockpiles in the United States
* [http://www.nukestrat.com/us/afn/nato.htm U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe: New report provides unprecedented details] Nukestrat, February 2005
* [http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/timeline.jsp?timeline=us_military&us_military_weapons_of_mass_destruction=us_military_chemicalWeapons Timeline: United States and Chemical Weapons] Posted at Center for Cooperative Research
* [http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/timeline.jsp?timeline=us_military&us_military_weapons_of_mass_destruction=us_military_biologicalWeapons Timeline: United States and Biological Weapons] Posted at Center for Cooperative Research
* [http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/02/10/putin.us.ap/index.html Putin: U.S. pushing others into nuclear ambitions] (February 2007)
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6414197.stm New nuclear warhead design for US]
* [http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/03/america/NA-GEN-US-New-Warheads.php U.S. government settles on design for new nuclear warheads]
* [http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1171894558959&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull US announces plans to build new nuclear warheads]
* [http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/nation/4598305.html U.S. picks design for new generation of nuclear warheads]
* [http://www.aberdeennews.com/mld/aberdeennews/business/16820390.htm Bush administration picks Lawrence Livermore warhead design]
* [http://ifri.org/files/Securite_defense/prolif_11_Potter.pdf Trends in U.S. Nuclear Policy] - analysis by William C. Potter, IFRI Proliferation Papers n°11, 2005