Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

In the run up to the next United Kingdom general election, several polling organisations will carry out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is always excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council, and abide by its disclosure rules.

Under the provisions of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, the next general election will be held on 7 May 2015.

The previous general election in the UK was held on 6 May 2010.

Contents

Methodology

Each polling organisation uses slightly different methodology in their collection of data; a brief description of each company's methods are as follows:

Angus Reid Public Opinion: Angus Reid collect their data through online internet survey, and demographically weight their data to be representative of the whole population in terms of age, gender, social class, the region of the country they live in, and newspaper readership. Past vote weighting is used, and is calculated separately for respondents from Scotland and respondents from England & Wales, whilst those saying they do not know how they will vote are asked which party they are leaning towards, and any responses to this are used as a full response, whilst those still unsure being discounted from the final calculation of levels of party support.[1]
ComRes: ComRes uses both telephone interviews and online surveys to collect their data, although all polls will be conducted using one method exclusively. All respondents are weighted according to gender, age, social class, household tenure, work status, number of cars owned and whether or not they have taken a foreign holiday in the previous three years. Both telephone and online polls are weighted according to past vote in the last general election, whilst telephone polls also use data from the last 12 ComRes telephone conducted opinion polls. ComRes compensate for those respondents who says they do not know by asking them instead which party they most clearly identify with, whilst all respondents are weighted according to likelihood to vote on a scale of 1 to 10, with respondents saying their likelihood of voting is less than 4 being discounted entirely, and respondents saying their likelihood is more than five being progressively weighted, with a 5 out of 10 likelihood being weighted as 0.5 of a response and a 10 out of 10 likelihood being weighted as 1 whole response.[2]
ICM: ICM also collect their data through telephone interviews, and also demographically weight their respondents according to their gender, age, social class, household tenure, work status and the region of the country they live in. They weight their respondents according to the levels of support a party received in the previous general election and the last 25 ICM opinion polls, and if a past vote is given, this is used to allocate a response to those who say they do not know how they will vote, although such a response is counted as only half of one whole response. ICM also weight their respondents as to how likely they say they are to vote, with respondents who say they are certain to vote given a higher weighting than those who are not as certain, whilst if a respondent did not vote at the previous general election, their turnout weighting is automatically reduced to half its value.[3]
Ipsos MORI: Ipsos MORI collect their data through telephone interviews, and weight their respondents to be demographically representative of gender, age, social class, work status, work sector, household tenure and the region of the country they live in. They do not weight their data according to the way respondents voted at the previous general election, discount any respondents who say they do not know how they will vote, and only include the responses of people who says they are certain to vote in the final calculation of levels of support for each party.[4]
Populus: Populus conduct their surveys over the telephone, and weight all respondents according to gender, age, social class, household tenure, work status, the number of cars they own, and whether they have taken a foreign holiday in the past three years, to be representative of the whole electorate. Respondents are weighted according to their past vote and the levels of support for each party recorded in the previous 20 Populus opinion polls. Respondents who say they do not know how they will vote are allocated according to how they voted at the last general election, albeit at a reduced weighting of 0.5 for previous Conservative or Labour voters and 0.3 for previous Liberal Democrat voters. All respondents are also weighted according to how likely they are to vote, with those certain to vote given the highest weighting.[5]
YouGov: YouGov collect their data through an online survey, and weight their respondents to be representative of the population as a whole in terms of age, gender, social class, identification with a political party, region of the country and newspaper readership. They weight their respondents according to how they voted in the previous general election in order to achieve a sample that is reflective of each party's level of support at that election, whilst those respondents who say they do not know who they will vote for are discounted from calculating levels of support for each party.[6]

Poll results

Poll results are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour.

2011

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats Others
21-22 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,714 35% 42% 9% 14%
20-21 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,748 36% 40% 9% 15%
18-20 Nov Populus/The Times 1,501 33% 41% 13% 13%
18-20 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,005 36% 38% 14% 12%
17-18 Nov YouGov/The Sunday Times 1,700 36% 40% 9% 15%
16-17 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,741 34% 40% 11% 15%
15-16 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,684 36% 41% 10% 13%
14-15 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,682 36% 42% 7% 13%
13-14 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,780 37% 40% 9% 13%
10-11 Nov YouGov/The Sunday Times 1,751 36% 41% 9% 14%
9-10 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,737 35% 42% 8% 15%
8-9 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,796 36% 40% 10% 14%
7-8 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,703 35% 40% 10% 14%
6-7 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,715 36% 41% 9% 13%
3-4 Nov YouGov/Sunday Times 1,561 35% 41% 9% 15%
2-3 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,678 36% 41% 8% 15%
1-2 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,718 37% 41% 8% 13%
31 Oct-1 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,673 35% 41% 9% 15%
30-31 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,702 39% 41% 8% 13%
27-31 Oct TNS-BMRB 1,261 36% 37% 11% 16%
28-30 Oct ComRes/The Independent 1,001 34% 38% 14% 14%
27-28 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 1,676 36% 39% 8% 16%
26-27 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,672 35% 42% 9% 14%
25-26 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,672 35% 41% 10% 15%
24-25 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,717 36% 40% 9% 15%
24 Oct House of Commons rejects a motion for a referendum on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union, but 81 Conservatives vote against the government causing the largest Conservative rebellion on a European issue ever.[7]
23-24 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,764 36% 40% 9% 14%
22-24 Oct Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,002 34% 38% 12% 15%
21-23 Oct Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,003 33% 41% 10% 17%
21-23 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,003 35% 39% 13% 13%
20-21 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 1,727 36% 38% 10% 16%
19-20 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,675 36% 41% 10% 13%
18-19 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,739 35% 41% 9% 14%
17-18 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,638 38% 42% 9% 11%
16-17 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,629 37% 40% 9% 14%
14-16 Oct Populus/The Times 1,511 33% 41% 8% 17%
14 Oct Defence Secretary Liam Fox resigns after a week of revelations regarding his relationship with friend and self-styled adviser Adam Werritty[8], whilst Minister of State for Policy Oliver Letwin apologises for dumping parliamentary papers in park bin.[9]
13-14 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 2,464 39% 42% 8% 11%
12-13 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,495 37% 42% 9% 12%
12-13 Oct ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 2,004 37% 39% 10% 14%
11-12 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,640 36% 42% 9% 14%
10-11 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,526 37% 41% 8% 14%
9-10 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,740 36% 40% 11% 13%
6-7 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 2,448 38% 42% 9% 11%
5-6 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,723 37% 41% 10% 12%
5 Oct David Cameron makes his keynote address to the Conservative party conference in Manchester. He urges the country to adopt a "can-do" by showing the "spirit of Britain" and not being "paralysed by doom and fear" surrounding the ongoing problems in the Britain and global economies.
4-5 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,644 37% 41% 9% 13%
3-4 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,525 38% 42% 9% 12%
2-3 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,747 37% 42% 9% 12%
29-30 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 2,333 36% 42% 10% 12%
28-29 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,547 38% 41% 9% 11%
27-28 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,627 37% 43% 9% 11%
27 Sep Ed Miliband addresses the Labour party conference in Liverpool, promising an end to three decades of 'fast buck capitalism,' and vowing to regulate and tax 'predatory companies.' In addition, he declares that David Cameron constitutes the 'last gasp' of a dying system. Despite business leaders and others suggesting that the speech is anti-business, it is relatively well received by the conference hall. The media suggest the speech indicates Labour is adopting a more left-wing attitude.
26-27 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,754 37% 43% 8% 13%
25-26 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,500 39% 41% 8% 13%
23-25 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,000 37% 36% 12% 15%
22-23 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 2,636 36% 42% 11% 11%
21-22 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,456 36% 42% 10% 12%
21 Sep Nick Clegg gives his speech to the Liberal Democrat party conference in Birmingham. He acknowledges the criticism the Liberal Democrats have faced, emphasises the achievements they have made and insists they will not stop fighting for "liberal values".
20-21 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,601 35% 41% 9% 14%
20-21 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,007 37% 38% 14% 12%
19-20 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,468 36% 41% 10% 12%
18-19 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,611 36% 42% 10% 12%
15-16 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 2,474 36% 42% 9% 13%
14-15 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,731 38% 41% 9% 12%
13-14 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,619 37% 41% 10% 13%
12-13 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,429 35% 43% 10% 12%
11-12 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,655 37% 41% 10% 11%
10-12 Sep Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,008 35% 37% 13% 15%
9-11 Sep Populus/The Times 1,503 34% 38% 12% 16%
8-9 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 2,724 38% 41% 9% 13%
7-8 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,627 36% 42% 10% 12%
6-7 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,554 36% 42% 9% 14%
5-6 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,552 38% 40% 9% 13%
4-5 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,796 37% 43% 9% 12%
2-4 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,000 37% 38% 11% 14%
1-2 Sep Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,005 33% 39% 11% 16%
1-2 Sep YouGov/The Sunday Times 2,696 38% 39% 10% 13%
31 Aug-1 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,588 36% 42% 10% 12%
30-31 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,783 37% 42% 10% 12%
29-30 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,449 39% 40% 10% 11%
25-26 Aug YouGov/The Sunday Times 2,657 38% 41% 9% 13%
24-25 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,530 37% 42% 9% 12%
23-24 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,709 36% 43% 9% 13%
22-23 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,585 37% 44% 9% 10%
21–22 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,619 35% 44% 9% 12%
20–22 Aug Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,002 34% 40% 15% 11%
19–21 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,004 37% 36% 17% 10%
18–19 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 2,464 36% 40% 11% 13%
17–18 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,608 36% 44% 9% 12%
17–18 Aug ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 2,028 38% 40% 11% 11%
16–17 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,783 35% 44% 9% 12%
15–16 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,665 36% 42% 10% 12%
14–15 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,847 35% 43% 9% 13%
11–12 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 2,656 36% 43% 9% 11%
10–11 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,075 35% 43% 9% 13%
9–10 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,700 36% 43% 9% 13%
6–9 Aug Widespread rioting, looting and arson breaks out initially in Tottenham, North London, before spreading to other areas of Greater London and later other urban centres of England. David Cameron, along with Home Secretary Theresa May and Mayor of London Boris Johnson return from holiday after facing criticism for their initial refusal to do so, in order to deal with the situation. Five people are killed in the disorder, including 3 Birmingham residents seeking to protect shops, a man in Ealing in West London, and a man who is shot in Croydon, South London.
8–9 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,846 36% 43% 9% 13%
7–8 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,743 36% 44% 9% 12%
4–5 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 2,425 35% 44% 9% 12%
3–4 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,748 36% 42% 10% 12%
2–3 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,657 35% 43% 10% 11%
1–2 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,776 36% 45% 8% 11%
31 Jul–1 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,820 35% 42% 11% 12%
28–29 Jul YouGov/Sunday Times 2,529 35% 44% 10% 12%
27–28 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,699 36% 42% 11% 11%
26–27 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,733 36% 43% 8% 13%
25–26 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,615 35% 44% 9% 12%
24–25 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,783 37% 41% 10% 12%
22–24 Jul ComRes/The Independent 1,002 34% 40% 13% 13%
21–22 Jul YouGov/Sunday Times 2,749 35% 43% 10% 12%
20–21 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,684 36% 44% 9% 12%
19–20 Jul News of the World Phone Hacking Scandal: Rupert and James Murdoch appear before the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee to face questioning about their knowledge of the scandal, before David Cameron admits that "with hindsight" he would not have hired ex-News of the World editor Andy Coulson to be his director of communications.
19–20 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,853 35% 43% 11% 11%
19–20 Jul Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,002 34% 41% 10% 16%
18–19 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,696 36% 43% 8% 13%
17–18 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,810 37% 42% 9% 12%
16–18 Jul Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,001 32% 39% 11% 18%
15–17 Jul ICM/The Guardian 1,003 37% 36% 16% 11%
14–15 Jul YouGov/Sunday Times 2,046 36% 42% 11% 11%
13–14 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,577 36% 43% 9% 11%
13–14 Jul ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 2,009 36% 40% 10% 14%
12–13 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,578 35% 43% 10% 12%
11–12 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,655 37% 42% 9% 12%
10–11 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,571 35% 43% 10% 12%
7–8 Jul YouGov/Sunday Times 2,741 35% 44% 8% 13%
6–7 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,759 37% 43% 8% 12%
5–6 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,839 35% 43% 9% 13%
4–5 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,738 35% 43% 10% 12%
3–4 Jul YouGov/The Sun 2,864 37% 43% 9% 12%
30 Jun–1 Jul YouGov/Sunday Times 2,864 36% 42% 9% 13%
29–30 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,707 37% 42% 8% 14%
28–29 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,699 37% 41% 10% 12%
27–28 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,573 36% 43% 8% 12%
26–27 Jun YouGov/The Sun 3,007 37% 42% 10% 11%
24–26 Jun ComRes/The Independent 1,003 36% 40% 11% 13%
23–24 Jun YouGov/Sunday Times 2,767 36% 43% 9% 12%
22–23 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,834 37% 42% 9% 12%
21–22 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,774 36% 42% 9% 13%
20–21 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,732 37% 42% 8% 13%
19–20 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,847 37% 43% 9% 11%
17–19 Jun ICM/The Guardian 1,000 37% 39% 12% 12%
16–17 Jun YouGov/Sunday Times 2,451 37% 42% 10% 11%
15–16 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,691 37% 43% 9% 11%
15–16 Jun ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 2,008 37% 37% 11% 15%
14–15 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,773 36% 42% 9% 12%
13–14 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,706 37% 42% 10% 11%
12–13 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,928 37% 42% 10% 11%
10–11 Jun Populus/The Times 1,508 39% 40% 9% 11%
9–10 Jun YouGov/Sunday Times 2,728 37% 42% 9% 12%
8–9 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,861 37% 43% 8% 12%
7–8 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,693 37% 42% 9% 12%
6–7 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,704 36% 44% 8% 12%
5–6 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,667 37% 43% 9% 12%
2–3 Jun YouGov/Sunday Times 2,579 37% 42% 9% 12%
1–2 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,935 36% 42% 9% 13%
31 May–1 Jun YouGov/The Sun 2,657 39% 41% 9% 12%
30–31 May YouGov/The Sun 2,845 37% 42% 9% 12%
27–29 May ComRes/The Independent 1,001 37% 37% 12% 14%
26–27 May YouGov/Sunday Times 2,723 37% 43% 9% 12%
25–26 May YouGov/The Sun 2,756 37% 43% 8% 12%
24–25 May YouGov/The Sun 2,795 37% 41% 10% 12%
23–24 May YouGov/The Sun 2,442 38% 42% 9% 11%
20–24 May Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,008 35% 42% 10% 14%
22–23 May YouGov/The Sun 2,823 38% 42% 10% 10%
19–20 May YouGov/Sunday Times 2,691 37% 42% 8% 13%
18–19 May YouGov/The Sun 2,256 38% 40% 10% 12%
17–18 May YouGov/The Sun 2,064 36% 42% 9% 13%
16–17 May YouGov/The Sun 2,515 39% 41% 9% 12%
15–16 May YouGov/The Sun 2,601 38% 41% 10% 12%
12–13 May YouGov/The Sunday Times 2,286 36% 41% 9% 13%
9–10 May YouGov/The Sun 2,341 38% 40% 9% 13%
8–9 May YouGov/The Sun 2,530 38% 42% 8% 12%
6–8 May Populus/The Times 1,504 37% 39% 11% 13%
5 May In local elections across England, the Liberal Democrats suffer heavy losses to both Labour, who make significant gains, especially in the North of England, and the Conservatives, who also make unexpected gains at the expense of their coalition partners. In Scottish Parliament elections, the pro-independence Scottish National Party achieve a majority of seats, the first time any single party has achieved such a feat, with all three main parties suffering losses. Labour loses the most seats, whilst the Liberal Democrats fail to win any mainland constituencies. In Welsh Assembly elections, Labour win 30 of the 60 seats available, falling one short of an outright majority, with the Conservatives overtaking Plaid Cymru to become the second largest party in the Senedd. A referendum is also held on the system of voting used to elect MPs to the House of Commons, in which the proposed Alternative Vote system is rejected in favour of the existing First Past the Post arrangement by a majority of more than 2 to 1.
5–6 May YouGov/Sunday Times 2,056 36% 41% 10% 12%
4–5 May YouGov/The Sun 2,087 37% 39% 10% 13%
3–4 May YouGov/The Sun 5,725 36% 40% 11% 14%
2–3 May YouGov/The Sun 2,365 37% 42% 10% 11%
27–28 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,070 36% 41% 12% 12%
26–27 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,666 36% 42% 10% 12%
25–26 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,617 36% 41% 10% 13%
20–21 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,629 36% 42% 10% 12%
19–20 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,346 36% 43% 9% 12%
18–19 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,431 36% 43% 9% 12%
17–18 Apr YouGov/The Sun 3,637 36% 42% 9% 12%
15–17 Apr Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,000 40% 40% 9% 11%
14–15 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 2,735 37% 41% 9% 12%
13–14 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,555 36% 42% 10% 12%
12–13 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,813 35% 44% 10% 12%
11–12 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,258 37% 42% 9% 11%
10–11 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,649 36% 42% 10% 12%
8–11 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,023 31% 42% 11% 17%
8–10 Apr Populus/The Times 1,509 36% 40% 11% 14%
7–8 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 2,206 36% 43% 9% 12%
6–7 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,199 35% 44% 10% 11%
5–6 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,034 36% 42% 10% 12%
4–5 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,530 37% 42% 9% 12%
3–4 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,484 37% 42% 9% 11%
31 Mar–1 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 2,226 36% 42% 11% 11%
30–31 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,175 35% 42% 10% 13%
29–30 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,202 35% 45% 9% 11%
28–29 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,198 36% 42% 10% 11%
27–28 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,391 36% 44% 9% 11%
25–27 Mar ComRes/The Independent 1,000 35% 41% 13% 11%
24–25 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 2,214 38% 41% 11% 10%
23 Mar Budget 2011: Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne unveils his second budget which includes a 1p reduction in fuel duty, an increase on supplementary taxes on North Sea oil companies and 2% above inflation increases on alcohol excise and tobacco duties. The Office for Budget Responsibility downgrades its GDP growth forecast for 2011 from 2.1% to 1.7% and for 2012 from 2.6% to 2.5%.
23–24 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,456 37% 41% 11% 11%
23–24 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,014 37% 36% 16% 11%
22–23 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,485 36% 42% 10% 11%
21–22 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,026 35% 42% 9% 14%
18–21 Mar Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,023 32% 41% 10% 18%
17–18 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 2,682 37% 43% 9% 11%
16-17 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,295 35% 43% 10% 12%
15-16 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,666 35% 43% 10% 12%
14–15 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,595 35% 45% 9% 11%
13–14 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,634 35% 44% 9% 12%
11–13 Mar Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,000 37% 41% 10% 12%
10–11 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 2,067 33% 44% 10% 13%
9–10 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,195 34% 45% 9% 12%
8–9 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,436 36% 42% 9% 14%
7–8 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,346 36% 44% 10% 11%
6–7 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,614 36% 42% 9% 13%
4–6 Mar Populus/The Times 1,511 35% 41% 11% 14%
3 Mar Barnsley Central by-election, 2011: Labour poll more than 60% of the vote to hold the Yorkshire seat and increase their majority. UKIP increase their vote by 7.5% to finish in second place, whilst the Conservatives maintain third place despite their vote falling by 9%. The Liberal Democrats fall from second place to sixth, finishing behind the BNP and an Independent candidate.
3–4 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 2,413 35% 43% 10% 12%
3–4 Mar Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,007 33% 41% 10% 15%
1–2 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,458 36% 41% 11% 12%
28 Feb - 1 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,126 34% 43% 11% 12%
27–28 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,549 36% 43% 10% 11%
25–27 Feb ComRes/The Independent 1,007 35% 39% 12% 14%
24–25 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 2,325 36% 44% 10% 10%
23–24 Feb YouGov/The Sun TBC 38% 42% 10% 10%
22–23 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,487 36% 44% 11% 9%
21–22 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,372 37% 43% 9% 11%
20–21 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,630 36% 42% 11% 11%
18–20 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,008 35% 38% 18% 9%
18–20 Feb Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,002 33% 43% 13% 11%
17–18 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 2,464 37% 41% 10% 11%
16–17 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,643 36% 42% 10% 11%
15-16 Feb YouGov/The Sun TBC 35% 45% 10% 10%
14-15 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,502 37% 44% 10% 10%
13–14 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,736 36% 44% 10% 10%
10–11 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 2,419 35% 45% 9% 11%
9-10 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,474 35% 44% 10% 12%
9–10 Feb ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 2,009 36% 42% 11% 11%
8–10 Feb Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,019 34% 40% 11% 15%
8-9 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,339 36% 43% 10% 11%
7-8 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,483 35% 43% 10% 10%
6–7 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,278 37% 43% 9% 10%
4–6 Feb Populus/The Times 1,510 36% 39% 11% 14%
3–4 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 2,283 36% 42% 10% 11%
1–2 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,409 36% 44% 9% 10%
31 Jan–1 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,922 39% 44% 8% 10%
30–31 Jan YouGov/The Sun 2,032 40% 42% 8% 11%
28–30 Jan ComRes/The Independent 1,002 34% 43% 10% 13%
27–28 Jan Angus Reid Public Opinion/Sunday Express 2,323 32% 43% 11% 14%
27–28 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 2,234 39% 43% 8% 10%
26–27 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,835 38% 44% 8% 10%
25–26 Jan YouGov/The Sun 2,139 39% 41% 10% 11%
25–26 Jan Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,010 33% 41% 12% 15%
25 Jan The Office of National Statistics announces the British economy contracted by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2010.
24–25 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,816 37% 43% 10% 10%
23-24 Jan YouGov/The Sun 2,003 37% 42% 11% 11%
21–24 Jan Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,162 33% 43% 13% 11%
21-23 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,000 35% 39% 15% 10%
20 Jan Alan Johnson resigns as Shadow Chancellor for personal reasons, being replaced by Ed Balls. Yvette Cooper replaces Balls as Shadow Home Secretary, with Douglas Alexander replacing Cooper as Shadow Foreign Secretary and Liam Byrne replacing Alexander as Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary.
20–21 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 1,699 39% 43% 9% 10%
19–20 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,860 36% 43% 10% 11%
18-19 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,993 37% 42% 9% 11%
17-18 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,884 39% 44% 8% 9%
16–17 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,977 37% 42% 9% 11%
13 Jan Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, 2011: Labour win the by-election with an increased majority of 3,558 and a swing of 5% from the Liberal Democrats, despite the Lib Dem candidate polling a vote share 0.3% higher than that at the election, this largely being attributed to the collapse of the Conservative vote, which falls from 26.4% to 12.8%.
13-14 Jan YouGov/The Sunday Times 1,865 37% 43% 9% 11%
12–13 Jan ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday 2.006 36% 40% 10% 14%
12–13 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,884 41% 41% 8% 11%
11–12 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,812 36% 43% 9% 11%
10–11 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,857 40% 41% 7% 12%
8–10 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 2,283 40% 43% 8% 9%
7-9 Jan ComRes/The Independent 1,000 34% 42% 12% 12%
6-7 Jan Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,010 35% 40% 12% 13
6–7 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 1,797 38% 41% 10% 11%
5-6 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,862 39% 43% 7% 10%
4-5 Jan YouGov/The Sun TBC 40% 41% 10% 9%
3-4 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,876 40% 42% 8% 10%

2010

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats Others
22–23 Dec YouGov/The Sun 1,635 39% 41% 9% 11%
21–22 Dec YouGov/The Sun 1,695 41% 42% 8% 10%
20–21 Dec YouGov/The Sun 2,032 40% 42% 9% 9%
19–20 Dec YouGov/The Sun 2,039 40% 43% 8% 9%
17–20 Dec Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,003 35% 41% 9% 15%
16–19 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,003 37% 39% 13% 11%
16–17 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 1,966 39% 42% 9% 10%
15–16 Dec ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 2,017 37% 39% 11% 13%
15–16 Dec YouGov/The Sun 1,922 41% 41% 9% 10%
14–15 Dec YouGov/The Sun 2,022 42% 40% 8% 9%
13–14 Dec YouGov/The Sun 1,810 39% 42% 9% 9%
12–13 Dec YouGov/The Sun 2,092 41% 42% 9% 8%
10–12 Dec Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,004 38% 39% 11% 14%
9 Dec The House of Commons approves the Coalition Government's proposals to increase tuition fees to up to £9,000 by 323 votes to 302. The majority of Liberal Democrats renege on their Vote for Students pledge, amidst mass student protests.
9–10 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 1,937 40% 42% 9% 10%
8–9 Dec YouGov/The Sun 1,982 41% 39% 11% 9%
7–8 Dec YouGov/The Sun 1,966 41% 41% 8% 10%
6–7 Dec YouGov/The Sun 2,109 42% 39% 9% 10%
5–6 Dec YouGov/The Sun 1,991 42% 39% 10% 9%
2–3 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 1,916 41% 39% 10% 10%
1–2 Dec YouGov/The Sun 1,934 40% 40% 11% 9%
30 Nov–1 Dec YouGov/The Sun 2,080 41% 38% 11% 10%
29–30 Nov Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,004 35% 40% 13% 12%
29–30 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,975 40% 40% 10% 10%
28–29 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,114 40% 40% 10% 10%
26–29 Nov ComRes/The Independent 1,006 36% 40% 12% 12%
25–26 Nov YouGov/Sunday Times 1,711 40% 40% 9% 11%
24–25 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,024 42% 39% 10% 9%
23–24 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,053 40% 40% 9% 11%
22–23 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,968 42% 40% 10% 9%
21–22 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,080 41% 38% 11% 10%
19–21 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,000 36% 38% 14% 12%
18–19 Nov YouGov/Sunday Times 1,967 40% 38% 11% 11%
17–19 Nov ComRes/Sunday Mirror/The Independent on Sunday 2,015 37% 38% 13% 12%
17–18 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,007 40% 40% 11% 9%
16–17 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,082 40% 40% 11% 10%
15–16 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,050 37% 42% 10% 10%
14–15 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,050 40% 42% 10% 8%
12–14 Nov Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,005 36% 39% 14% 11%
11–12 Nov YouGov/Sunday Times 1,930 39% 41% 10% 9%
10–11 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,013 40% 40% 10% 10%
9–10 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,933 42% 37% 11% 10%
8–9 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,936 40% 39% 13% 8%
7–8 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,109 42% 39% 11% 9%
4–5 Nov YouGov/Sunday Times 1,954 40% 39% 12% 10%
3–4 Nov YouGov/The Sun 1,980 40% 39% 11% 10%
2–3 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,036 40% 40% 9% 10%
1–2 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,006 41% 40% 11% 8%
31 Oct–1 Nov YouGov/The Sun 2,132 41% 39% 11% 9%
29–30 Oct ComRes/The Independent 1,000 35% 37% 16% 12%
28–29 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 2,058 42% 37% 13% 8%
27–28 Oct Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,015 35% 37% 15% 12%
27–28 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,986 41% 39% 11% 9%
26–27 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,108 41% 39% 12% 8%
25–26 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,651 40% 38% 12% 9%
24–25 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,967 40% 40% 11% 9%
22–24 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,002 39% 36% 16% 9%
22–24 Oct Populus/The Times 1,000 37% 38% 15% 10%
21–22 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 1,845 41% 40% 10% 9%
21–22 Oct ICM/News of the World 1,025 40% 36% 16% 9%
21–22 Oct BPIX/Mail on Sunday[10] 1,916 35% 37% 10% 18%
20 Oct Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne announces the government's Comprehensive Spending Review.
20–21 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,874 41% 40% 10% 9%
19–20 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,936 41% 39% 11% 9%
18–19 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,099 42% 39% 11% 8%
17–18 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,991 41% 39% 12% 7%
15–17 Oct Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,009 39% 36% 14% 11%
14–15 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 1,898 41% 39% 11% 9%
13–15 Oct ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 2,009 40% 34% 14% 12%
13–14 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,838 42% 38% 12% 8%
12–13 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,959 41% 40% 11% 8%
11–12 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,047 43% 36% 12% 8%
10–11 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,090 42% 38% 12% 8%
8 Oct Labour leader Ed Miliband announces his shadow cabinet, including the appointment of
Alan Johnson as Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer.
7–8 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 1,890 42% 38% 12% 8%
6–7 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,903 42% 38% 12% 8%
5–6 Oct YouGov/The Sun 1,955 42% 40% 11% 7%
4–5 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,057 43% 39% 11% 7%
3–6 Oct The Conservative Party hold their annual conference in Birmingham.
3–4 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,108 41% 39% 12% 8%
30 Sep–1 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 1,796 39% 41% 11% 8%
30 Sep–1 Oct Angus Reid Public Opinion 2,004 35% 38% 16% 11%
30 Sep–1 Oct BPIX/Mail on Sunday[10] 2,061 41% 37% 13% 9%
29 Sep–1 Oct ComRes/The Independent 2,035 39% 36% 15% 10%
29–30 Sep YouGov/The Sun 3,127 41% 39% 12% 8%
28–29 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,916 41% 39% 12% 9%
28–29 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,005 35% 37% 18% 10%
27–28 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,896 41% 40% 12% 8%
26–27 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,948 39% 40% 12% 9%
25–30 Sep The Labour Party hold their annual conference in Manchester, where its leadership election ends and Ed Miliband is announced as the new Leader of the Labour Party.
23–24 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,905 39% 38% 15% 9%
22–23 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,013 41% 37% 13% 8%
21–22 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,649 43% 36% 14% 7%
18–22 Sep The Liberal Democrats hold their annual conference in Liverpool.
20–21 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,963 39% 39% 13% 8%
19–20 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,156 42% 38% 11% 8%
16–17 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,984 41% 39% 13% 7%
14–16 Sep ComRes/Sunday Mirror/The Independent on Sunday 2,028 37% 35% 15% 13%
15–16 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,996 41% 38% 12% 9%
14–15 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,971 42% 39% 12% 7%
13–14 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,913 40% 39% 12% 9%
12–13 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,108 41% 38% 12% 9%
10–12 Sep Populus/The Times 1,508 39% 37% 14% 10%
10–12 Sep Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,004 37% 37% 15% 11%
9–10 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,858 42% 38% 14% 6%
8–9 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,948 42% 37% 14% 8%
7–8 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,967 43% 38% 12% 7%
6–7 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,089 42% 38% 13% 8%
5–6 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,089 42% 37% 13% 8%
3–5 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,000 38% 34% 18% 10%
2–3 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,849 42% 37% 12% 9%
31 Aug–1 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,923 43% 37% 12% 8%
30–31 Aug YouGov/The Sun 1,548 43% 38% 11% 8%
26–27 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 1,872 41% 37% 13% 8%
25–26 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,046 42% 37% 12% 9%
24–25 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,030 42% 37% 12% 8%
23–24 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,011 41% 38% 13% 8%
22–23 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,088 41% 39% 12% 9%
19–20 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 1,953 41% 38% 12% 8%
18–19 Aug YouGov/The Sun 1,970 41% 37% 14% 8%
17–18 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,095 44% 36% 12% 7%
16–17 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,059 42% 37% 14% 8%
15–16 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,125 41% 37% 15% 8%
13–15 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,001 37% 37% 18% 8%
13–15 Aug ComRes/Daily Mirror/GMTV 939 39% 33% 15% 13%
12–13 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 1,865 42% 37% 13% 7%
11–12 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,000 42% 37% 14% 8%
10–11 Aug YouGov/The Sun 1,940 41% 37% 15% 8%
9–10 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,008 42% 38% 14% 7%
8–9 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,241 40% 36% 15% 9%
6–8 Aug ComRes/The Independent 1,004 39% 33% 16% 13%
5–6 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 1,906 42% 36% 13% 8%
3–4 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,137 42% 36% 13% 9%
2–3 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,101 41% 36% 13% 9%
1–2 Aug YouGov/The Sun 2,216 42% 38% 12% 8%
29–30 July YouGov/Sunday Times 1,885 42% 38% 12% 7%
27–28 July YouGov/The Sun 1,900 42% 36% 14% 8%
26–27 July YouGov/The Sun 2,028 42% 37% 14% 7%
25–26 July YouGov/The Sun 2,143 42% 35% 15% 8%
23–25 July ICM/The Guardian 1,009 38% 34% 19% 8%
23–25 July Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,009 40% 38% 14% 8%
22–23 July YouGov/Sunday Times 1,891 41% 36% 14% 9%
21–22 July YouGov/The Sun 2,104 43% 35% 15% 7%
20–21 July YouGov/The Sun 2,101 44% 35% 13% 7%
19–20 July YouGov/The Sun 2,143 43% 35% 14% 8%
18–19 July YouGov/The Sun 2,007 42% 35% 15% 8%
15–16 July YouGov/Sunday Times 2,023 40% 37% 15% 7%
14–15 July YouGov/The Sun 1,620 43% 34% 15% 8%
13–14 July YouGov/The Sun 2,185 43% 34% 15% 8%
12–13 July YouGov/The Sun 2,173 42% 35% 15% 8%
11–12 July YouGov/The Sun 2,227 42% 35% 15% 9%
8–9 July YouGov/Sunday Times 2,019 42% 34% 17% 7%
7–8 July YouGov/The Sun 2,165 42% 35% 16% 7%
6–7 July YouGov/The Sun 2,731 40% 36% 17% 7%
5–6 July YouGov/The Spectator 2,214 41% 35% 16% 9%
5–6 July YouGov/The Sun 1,972 41% 36% 15% 9%
4–5 July YouGov/The Sun 1,424 40% 36% 16% 8%
25–27 June ComRes/The Independent 1,003 40% 31% 18% 11%
24–25 June YouGov/Sunday Times 2,038 43% 36% 16% 6%
23–24 June ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,006 41% 35% 16% 7%
22–23 June YouGov/The Sun 1,641 42% 34% 17% 7%
22–23 June Populus/The Times 1,003 39% 33% 18% 9%
22 June The Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne holds an emergency budget in which he announces a range of tax rises and spending cuts, most notably a rise in the rate of VAT to 20%.
21–22 June YouGov/The Sun 2,295 41% 37% 15% 7%
20–21 June YouGov/The Sun 2,042 41% 33% 18% 7%
18–20 June Ipsos MORI/Reuters 1,002 39% 31% 19% 12%
18–20 June ICM/The Guardian 1,000 39% 31% 21% 8%
17–18 June YouGov/Sunday Times 1,491 39% 34% 19% 8%
16–17 June ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,004 36% 30% 23% 11%
10–11 June YouGov/Sunday Times 1,482 40% 32% 18% 9%
10–11 June BPIX/Mail on Sunday[10] 2,117 39% 32% 19% 10%
1–9 June Harris Interactive/Metro 1,906 36% 30% 25% 9%
28–31 May ComRes/The Independent 1,000 37% 33% 21% 9%
21–23 May ICM/The Guardian 1,001 39% 32% 21% 8%
20–21 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,477 39% 32% 21% 7%
13–14 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,489 37% 34% 21% 8%
12–13 May ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 1,010 38% 34% 21% 7%

2010 general election

Date 2010 general election Turnout Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats Others
6 May Election Results (excluding Northern Ireland) 29,691,380
65.3%
36.9% 29.7% 23.6% 9.8%

References and notes

PThe dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.

External links


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