- Opinion polling for the United Kingdom general election, 2010
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In the run up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.
The election took place on 6 May 2010, coinciding with the local elections. The previous general election was held on 5 May 2005.
Rumours in autumn 2007 that Gordon Brown was about to call a general election imminently put all polling organisations, the press and political parties on an election footing, but he eventually announced that he would not seek a dissolution. According to many media and political figures, this was because he believed that Labour was likely to lose its majority in a snap general election. Gordon Brown has maintained that Labour would have won but he did not believe an early election was in the national interest.
Contents
Background
Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall UK shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the UK may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.
Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and February 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a UK general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.
That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in the UK to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[1] By using UNS projections, several media commentators and politicians have suggested that significant swings towards the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls may not necessarily amount to significant gains in terms of parliamentary seats, including predictions that even if the Liberal Democrats had the most votes, and Labour the least, it could be the case that Labour retains the most seats while the Lib Dems have the fewest.[2][3][4]
Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.
Polling since 2005
Immediately following the previous general election, the Labour party held a double-digit lead in opinion polls. However, over the course of 2005, this lead was eroded somewhat. By December 2005, the Conservative party showed its first small leads in opinion polls following the controversial 90 days detention proposals and the election of David Cameron to the leadership of the Conservative party.[5]
In early 2006, opinion polls were increasingly mixed with small leads given alternately to Labour and Conservative. From the May 2006 local elections, in which Labour suffered significant losses, the Conservatives took a small single-digit lead in opinion polls. Labour regained the lead in June 2007 following the resignation of Tony Blair and the appointment of Gordon Brown as prime minister. From November 2007, the Conservatives again took the lead and, from then, extended their lead into double digits, particularly in response to the MPs' expenses scandal, although there was some evidence that the lead narrowed slightly towards the end of 2009. By the end of February 2010, Ipsos MORI, ICM, YouGov and ComRes polls had all found a sufficient narrowing of the Conservative lead for media speculation about a hung parliament to return.[6]
From 15 April 2010, following the first televised debate of the party leaders, however, polling data changed dramatically, with the Lib Dem vote proportion rising to 28–33%, and the Conservative vote proportion falling. In some polls, the Liberal Democrats took the lead from the Conservatives. Under UNS projections, this made a hung parliament highly probable, if Lib Dem performance had persisted.[7]
After the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, placed the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%. If these polls had reflected the election day results on a uniform swing nationwide, Labour would have had the most seats in a hung Parliament.
Exit poll
At 10 pm on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit poll collected for the BBC, Sky and ITV news services were announced. Data were gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country. The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively,[8] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively.[9]
Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats[10] because it was odds with many opinion polls undertaken in the previous weeks. However, the actual results showed that the exit poll was a good predictor.
A later BBC Exit poll (05:36 BST) predicted the Conservatives on 306, 20 short of an overall majority, Labour on 262, and Liberal Democrats on 55.[9]
Graphical summaries
The following graph shows ICM poll results since the last general election. Results for Conservative are in Blue, Labour in Red, Liberal Democrat Yellow and Others in Grey. Other polling houses may show different results, and all polls are subject to a margin of error and possible house bias.
The following graph shows YouGov poll results since the calling of the general election.
The following graph shows ComRes poll results recorded over the period April 11 – May 6, 2010, including annotations of the three TV debates.
Poll results
Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.
The figure given in the 'lead' column before the televised leaders' debates is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties. For figures after the first debate, after which the Liberal Democrats were placed in first or second position in some polls, the second placed party is also noted in the column where applicable.
Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council, and abide by its disclosure rules. BPIX is not a member of the BPC, and does not publish detailed methodology and findings.
2010
Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample Size Labour Conservative Liberal Democrats Other Lead 6 May Election Results (GB only) N/A
65.3% Turnout29.7%
258 seats36.9%
306 seats23.6%
57 seats9.8%
10 seats7% over Lab 5 May Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,216 29% 36% 27% 8% 7% over Lab 4–5 May YouGov/The Sun 6,483 28% 35% 28% 9% 7% over Lab/LD 4–5 May Harris Interactive/Daily Mail 4,014 29% 35% 27% 7% 6% over Lab 4–5 May Populus/The Times 2,505 28% 37% 27% 8% 9% over Lab 4–5 May Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,283 24% 36% 29% 11% 7% over LD 4–5 May Opinium/Daily Express 1,383 27% 35% 26% 12% 8% over Lab 4–5 May ComRes/ITV/The Independent 1,025 28% 37% 28% 7% 9% over Lab/LD 3–4 May ICM/The Guardian 1,527 28% 36% 26% 10% 8% over Lab 3–4 May YouGov/The Sun 1,461 30% 35% 24% 11% 5% over Lab 29 Apr–4 May TNS-BMRB 1,864 27% 33% 29% 11% 4% over LD 28 Apr–4 May Harris Interactive/Metro 786 26% 36% 28% 10% 8% over LD 2–3 May ComRes/ITV/The Independent 1,024 29% 37% 26% 8% 8% over Lab 2–3 May YouGov/The Sun 1,455 28% 35% 28% 9% 7% over Lab/LD 30 Apr – 3 May Opinium/Daily Express 1,870 28% 33% 27% 12% 5% over Lab 1–2 May YouGov/The Sun 1,475 28% 34% 29% 9% 5% over LD 1–2 May ComRes/ITV/The Independent 1,024 29% 37% 26% 8% 8% over Lab 30 Apr – 2 May ICM/The Guardian 1,026 28% 33% 28% 12% 5% over Lab/LD 30 Apr – 1 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,483 27% 35% 28% 10% 7% over LD 30 Apr – 1 May ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 1,019 28% 38% 25% 9% 10% over Lab 30 Apr – 1 May BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,136 27% 34% 30% 9% 4% over LD 30 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,412 28% 34% 28% 10% 6% over Lab/LD 30 Apr ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,019 29% 36% 27% 8% 7% over Lab 29–30 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/Sunday Express 1,874 23% 35% 29% 13% 6% over LD 29–30 Apr Harris Interactive/Daily Mail 1,020 24% 33% 32% 11% 1% over LD 29 Apr The third and final Prime Ministerial debate was held. It featured Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg,
and was produced by the BBC, being broadcast on BBC One and Sky News.28–29 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,623 27% 34% 28% 11% 6% over LD 27–28 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,530 27% 34% 31% 8% 3% over LD 28 Apr Gordon Brown is caught on a microphone making unguarded comments in which he describes
a voter he had just met on the campaign trail, Gillian Duffy, as a "sort of bigoted woman".26–27 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,598 29% 33% 28% 10% 4% over Lab 26–27 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,006 29% 36% 26% 9% 7% over Lab 26–27 Apr Populus/The Times 1,510 27% 36% 28% 8% 8% over LD 21–27 Apr TNS-BMRB 2,078 27% 34% 30% 9% 4% over LD 25–26 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,491 28% 33% 29% 10% 4% over LD 25–26 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,005 29% 33% 29% 9% 4% over Lab 23–26 Apr Opinium/Daily Express 1,942 25% 34% 28% 13% 6% over LD 23–26 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/The Economist 2,433 23% 33% 30% 14% 3% over LD 20–26 Apr Harris Interactive/Metro 1,678 25% 32% 30% 13% 2% over LD 24–25 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,466 28% 34% 30% 8% 4% over LD 24–25 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,003 28% 32% 31% 9% 1% over LD 23–25 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,031 28% 33% 30% 8% 3% over LD 23–24 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,412 27% 35% 28% 9% 7% over LD 23–24 Apr ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 1,006 28% 34% 29% 9% 5% over LD 23–24 Apr BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,139 26% 34% 30% 10% 4% over LD 23 Apr ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,020 26% 35% 31% 8% 4% over LD 23 Apr Ipsos MORI/News of the World 1,245 30% 36% 23% 11% 6% over Lab 22–23 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,381 29% 34% 29% 8% 5% over Lab/LD 22–23 Apr Harris Interactive/Daily Mail 1,048 26% 34% 29% 11% 5% over LD 22 Apr The second televised Prime Ministerial debate, of three in the election campaign, was held
featuring Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and was produced by Sky, being broadcast on Sky News and the BBC News Channel.21–22 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,576 29% 34% 28% 9% 5% over Lab 20–21 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,545 27% 33% 31% 9% 2% over LD 19–20 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,595 26% 31% 34% 9% 3% over Con 19–20 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 1,953 23% 32% 33% 12% 1% over Con 19–20 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,015 25% 35% 27% 13% 8% over LD 19–20 Apr Populus/The Times 1,501 28% 32% 31% 9% 1% over LD 18–20 Apr Ipsos MORI/The Standard 1,253 28% 32% 32% 8% 0% 14–20 Apr TNS-BMRB 1,953 29% 34% 30% 7% 4% over LD 18–19 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,012 26% 35% 26% 13% 9% over Lab/LD 18–19 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,509 27% 33% 31% 8% 2% over LD 16–19 Apr Opinium/Daily Express 1,957 26% 32% 29% 13% 3% over LD 16–19 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,004 24% 32% 32% 12% 0% 14–19 Apr Harris Interactive/Metro 1,792 26% 31% 30% 13% 1% over LD 17–18 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,003 28% 32% 28% 12% 4% over Lab/LD 17–18 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,433 26% 32% 33% 8% 1% over Con 16–18 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,024 28% 33% 30% 9% 3% over LD 16–17 Apr BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,149 28% 31% 32% 9% 1% over Con 16–17 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,490 30% 33% 29% 8% 3% over Lab 16–17 Apr ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 1,006 27% 31% 29% 13% 2% over LD 15–16 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,290 28% 33% 30% 9% 3% over LD 15 Apr ComRes/ITV News 4,032 28% 35% 24% 13% 7% over Lab 15 Apr The first ever televised Prime Ministerial debate, and the first of three in the election campaign, was held. The debate
featured Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and was produced and broadcast by ITV.14–15 Apr ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,033 29% 34% 27% 10% 5% 14–15 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,490 31% 37% 22% 10% 6% 14 Apr The Liberal Democrats launch their 2010 election manifesto. 13–14 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,578 32% 41% 18% 9% 9% 13 Apr The Conservative Party launches its 2010 election manifesto. 12–13 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,001 29% 35% 21% 15% 6% 12–13 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,583 31% 39% 20% 9% 8% 8–13 Apr Harris Interactive/Metro 1,523 27% 36% 23% 14% 9% 7–13 Apr TNS-BMRB 1,916 33% 36% 22% 9% 3% 12 Apr Populus/The Times 1,525 33% 36% 21% 9% 3% 12 Apr The Labour Party launches its 2010 election manifesto. 11–12 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,002 31% 36% 19% 14% 5% 11–12 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,006 28% 38% 22% 12% 10% 11–12 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,493 33% 39% 20% 8% 6% 9–12 Apr Opinium/Daily Express 1,825 31% 39% 17% 13% 8% 10–11 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,004 30% 37% 20% 13% 7% 10–11 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,455 31% 37% 20% 12% 6% 9-11 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,024 31% 37% 20% 11% 6% 9–10 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,431 32% 40% 18% 10% 8% 9–10 Apr ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 1,001 32% 39% 16% 13% 7% 9–10 Apr BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,051 31% 38% 20% 11% 7% 8–9 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,527 30% 40% 20% 10% 10% 7–8 Apr Harris Interative/Daily Mail 1,012 27% 37% 22% 14% 10% 7–8 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,626 31% 40% 18% 11% 9% 7 Apr ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,032 30% 38% 21% 10% 8% 6–7 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,484 32% 37% 19% 12% 5% 6–7 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,193 26% 37% 22% 14% 11% 6 Apr Populus/The Times 1,507 32% 39% 21% 8% 7% 6 Apr General election officially called: Prime Minister Gordon Brown announces HM The Queen has agreed to a dissolution of Parliament,
allowing the general election to take place on 6 May.5–6 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,456 32% 40% 17% 11% 8% 31 Mar-6 Apr Harris Interactive/Metro 2,080 28% 37% 20% 15% 9% 4–5 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,620 31% 41% 18% 11% 10% 2–5 Apr Opinium/Daily Express 1,903 29% 39% 17% 15% 10% 1–3 Apr ICM/Guardian 1,001 33% 37% 21% 9% 4% 1–2 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,503 29% 39% 20% 12% 10% 31 Mar-1 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/Sunday Express 1,991 27% 38% 20% 15% 11% 31 Mar-1 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,552 31% 39% 19% 11% 8% 30–31 Mar ICM/Guardian 1,003 29% 38% 23% 10% 9% 30–31 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,615 32% 38% 19% 11% 6% 30–31 Mar Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,013 28% 37% 22% 13% 9% 29–30 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,681 31% 38% 19% 12% 7% 24–30 Mar TNS-BMRB 1,819 33% 38% 19% 10% 5% 29 Mar Ask the Chancellors is aired on Channel 4. 28–29 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,614 32% 39% 18% 11% 7% 26–29 Mar Opinium/Daily Express 1,780 28% 38% 18% 16% 10% 23–29 Mar Harris Interactive/Metro 1,133 27% 37% 19% 17% 10% 26–28 Mar ComRes/The Independent 1,001 30% 37% 20% 13% 7% 25–26 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,533 32% 37% 19% 13% 5% 25–26 Mar BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 800 30% 37% 20% 13% 7% 24–25 Mar ICM/News of the World 1,003 31% 39% 19% 11% 8% 24–25 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,483 33% 37% 18% 12% 4% 24 Mar Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling announces the budget for Her Majesty's Government. 23–24 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,554 34% 36% 17% 13% 2% 22–23 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,756 33% 37% 18% 12% 4% 22 Mar It is announced that David Cameron's wife, Samantha, is pregnant. 21–22 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,560 32% 36% 20% 12% 4% 19–22 Mar Ipsos MORI/Daily Mirror 1,503 30% 35% 21% 14% 5% 19–22 Mar Opinium/Daily Express 1,975 30% 37% 15% 18% 7% 17–22 Mar Harris Interactive/Metro 2,117 28% 35% 17% 20% 7% 20 Mar British Airways cabin crew begin the first of two multi-day strikes in opposition to a
series of changes the airlines has introduced in an attempt to cut costs.18–19 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,547 31% 38% 19% 13% 7% 18 Mar Gordon Brown admits that defence spending "did not rise in real terms every year under Labour", contradicting the evidence he gave to the Iraq Inquiry. 17–18 Mar ICM/News of the World 1,002 32% 38% 19% 10% 6% 17–18 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,671 32% 36% 20% 12% 4% 16–17 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,676 32% 36% 20% 11% 4% 15–16 Mar Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,003 26% 39% 21% 15% 13% 15–16 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,460 32% 37% 19% 12% 5% 10–16 Mar Harris Interactive/Metro 1,934 28% 36% 18% 18% 8% 14–15 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,466 32% 37% 21% 10% 5% 12–15 Mar Opinium/Daily Express 1,951 28% 39% 16% 17% 11% 12–14 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,002 31% 40% 20% 9% 9% 11–12 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,507 33% 37% 17% 12% 4% 10–11 Mar ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,007 31% 38% 21% 10% 7% 10–11 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,434 34% 37% 17% 12% 3% 9–10 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,473 32% 37% 17% 14% 5% 9–10 Mar Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,003 26% 39% 18% 17% 13% 8–9 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,524 32% 36% 20% 12% 4% 7–8 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,747 34% 39% 16% 11% 5% 5–8 Mar Opinium/Daily Express 1,960 30% 37% 16% 16% 7% 3–8 Mar Harris Interactive/Metro 1,498 29% 37% 18% 16% 8% 4–5 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,558 33% 38% 17% 12% 5% 4–5 Mar BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 5,655 34% 36% 18% 12% 2% 3–4 Mar ICM/News of the World 1,005 31% 40% 18% 11% 9% 3–4 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,640 32% 38% 17% 13% 6% 2–3 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,661 32% 38% 19% 12% 6% 25 Feb – 3 Mar TNS-BMRB 1,973 31% 39% 19% 11% 8% 1–2 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,479 33% 38% 16% 13% 5% 28 Feb-1 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,505 32% 39% 17% 12% 7% 26–28 Feb ComRes/The Independent 1,005 32% 37% 19% 12% 5% 25–26 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,436 35% 37% 17% 11% 2% 26 Feb The Office of National Statistics revises fourth quarter GDP figures for 2009 from growth of 0.1% to 0.3%. 24–25 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,472 33% 39% 16% 12% 6% 23–24 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,473 32% 38% 19% 10% 6% 18–24 Feb TNS-BMRB 1,954 32% 36% 21% 12% 4% 22–23 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,469 32% 38% 17% 12% 6% 21–22 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,578 33% 39% 17% 12% 6% 19–22 Feb Ipsos MORI/Daily Telegraph 1,533 32% 37% 19% 12% 5% 16–22 Feb Harris Interative/Metro 918 30% 39% 22% 9% 9% 19–21 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,004 30% 37% 20% 13% 7% 18–19 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,472 33% 39% 17% 11% 6% 16–19 Feb Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 4,004 26% 38% 19% 16% 12% 17–18 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,558 32% 39% 18% 11% 7% 16–17 Feb ComRes/Theos 1,085 30% 38% 20% 11% 8% 16–17 Feb Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,002 26% 40% 18% 16% 14% 16–17 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,145 30% 39% 18% 13% 9% 10–11 Feb ComRes/The Independent 1,009 29% 40% 21% 10% 11% 9–10 Feb Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,002 25% 38% 20% 16% 13% 5–7 Feb Populus/The Times 1,502 30% 40% 20% 11% 10% 3–4 Feb ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,001 30% 39% 20% 11% 9% 29–31 Jan ComRes/The Independent 1,001 31% 38% 19% 12% 7% 29–30 Jan BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 1,524 30% 39% 18% 13% 9% 28–29 Jan YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,054 31% 38% 19% 12% 7% 26–28 Jan YouGov/The People 2,044 31% 40% 18% 11% 9% 26–28 Jan Ipsos MORI/Daily Mirror 1,001 32% 40% 16% 12% 8% 26–27 Jan Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,004 24% 40% 19% 16% 16% 26 Jan The Office of National Statistics announces that the UK economy exited recession in the fourth quarter of 2009 with growth of 0.1%. 22–24 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,000 29% 40% 21% 10% 11% 20–21 Jan ComRes/Sunday Mirror 1,004 29% 38% 19% 14% 9% 20 Jan The unemployment level unexpectedly falls to 7.8%, the first fall since May 2008. 14–15 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 2,033 31% 40% 18% 11% 9% 13–14 Jan ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,005 29% 42% 19% 10% 13% 9–10 Jan Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com 2,010 24% 40% 20% 17% 16% 8–10 Jan Populus/The Times 1,509 28% 41% 19% 12% 13% 6–7 Jan ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,003 30% 40% 18% 12% 10% 6–7 Jan YouGov/The Sun 2,832 30% 42% 16% 12% 12% 6 Jan Former Cabinet ministers Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt call for a secret ballot on Gordon Brown's leadership. The plot receives little
support from Labour MPs, although support for Brown from his cabinet ministers appears only lukewarm.5–6 Jan YouGov/The Sun 4,167 31% 40% 17% 12% 9% 2009
Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample Size Labour Conservative Liberal Democrats Other Lead 29–30 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,848 30% 40% 17% 12% 10% 19–20 Dec ComRes/The Independent 1,006 29% 38% 19% 14% 9% 16–18 Dec Angus Reid Strategies/Political Betting.com 2,010 24% 40% 20% 15% 16% 15–17 Dec YouGov/The People 2,052 28% 40% 18% 14% 12% 11–13 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,009 31% 40% 18% 11% 9% 11–13 Dec Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,017 26% 43% 20% 12% 17% 10–11 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 2,044 31% 40% 16% 13% 9% 10–11 Dec BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,036 30% 41% 17% 12% 11% 9–10 Dec ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,001 24% 41% 21% 14% 17% 8–10 Dec Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com 2,002 23% 40% 19% 19% 17% 9 Dec Alistair Darling delivers his Pre-Budget Report, which includes an increase in National Insurance contributions
and a one-off 50% tax on bankers' bonuses.4–6 Dec Populus/The Times 1,505 30% 38% 20% 12% 8% 3–4 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 2,095 27% 40% 18% 15% 13% 2–3 Dec ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,001 29% 40% 19% 12% 11% 27–29 Nov ComRes/The Independent 1,003 27% 37% 20% 16% 10% 24–26 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,004 29% 39% 19% 13% 10% 20–23 Nov Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com 2,004 22% 39% 21% 18% 17% 13–15 Nov Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,006 31% 37% 17% 13% 6% 13–15 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,010 29% 42% 19% 10% 13% 12–13 Nov YouGov/Sunday Times 2,026 27% 41% 18% 14% 14% 12 Nov Glasgow North East by-election: Labour wins seat with a majority of over 8,000. 11–12 Nov ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,007 25% 39% 17% 19% 14% 6–8 Nov Populus/The Times 1,504 29% 39% 18% 14% 10% 4–6 Nov Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com 2,000 24% 38% 20% 17% 14% 4–5 Nov YouGov/Channel 4 News 1,021 27% 41% 17% 16% 14% 3 Nov Conservative leader David Cameron announces a future Conservative government
would not offer a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in the light of its ratification by all 27 EU countries.28–29 Oct ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,007 25% 42% 21% 13% 17% 27–29 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,024 28% 41% 16% 15% 13% 23–25 Oct ComRes/The Independent 1,004 27% 40% 18% 15% 13% 22–23 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,314 27% 40% 19% 14% 13% 22 Oct The British National Party leader, Nick Griffin, appears on 'Question Time' for the first time. 16–18 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,002 27% 44% 18% 11% 17% 16–18 Oct Ipsos MORI 996 26% 43% 19% 11% 17% 15–16 Oct Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com 2,077 23% 40% 20% 15% 17% 15–16 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 2,025 30% 41% 17% 12% 11% 14–15 Oct ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,008 28% 40% 19% 13% 12% 9-11 Oct Populus/The Times 1,509 30% 40% 18% 12% 10% 8–9 Oct BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,136 29% 43% 16% 12% 14% 8–9 Oct BPIX/Daily Mail[11] 2,215 28% 42% 18% 12% 14% 8–9 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,161 28% 42% 18% 12% 14% 8–9 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,064 27% 44% 17% 12% 17% 7–9 Oct ICM/News of the World 1,008 26% 45% 18% 10% 19% 7–8 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,074 31% 40% 18% 11% 9% 6–7 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,039 29% 43% 17% 11% 14% 5–6 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,223 28% 41% 18% 13% 13% 5–8 Oct The Conservatives hold their 2009 party conference in Manchester 4–5 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,102 27% 40% 20% 13% 13% 3 Oct YouGov/The People 2,027 28% 40% 18% 14% 12% 1–2 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,053 29% 41% 17% 13% 12% 30 Sep-1 Oct ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,022 28% 40% 19% 13% 12% 30 Sep-1 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,085 26% 40% 20% 15% 14% 29–30 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,078 30% 37% 21% 12% 7% 28–29 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,024 29% 40% 18% 13% 11% 27–28 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,051 29% 39% 20% 13% 10% 27 Sep-1 Oct Labour hold their 2009 party conference in Brighton 25–27 Sep Ipsos MORI 1,003 24% 36% 25% 15% 11% over LD 25–27 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,003 23% 38% 23% 16% 15% 27 SepP BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] Unknown[11] 25% 40% 22% 13% 15% 24–25 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,059 24% 40% 21% 14% 16% 23–24 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,057 25% 38% 23% 14% 13% 23–24 Sep ICM/News of the World 1,003 26% 40% 23% 11% 14% 22–24 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,026 26% 39% 20% 15% 13% 22–23 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,036 28% 38% 19% 15% 10% 21–22 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,062 27% 39% 20% 13% 12% 20–21 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,081 30% 39% 17% 14% 9% 19–23 Sep The Liberal Democrats hold their 2009 party conference in Bournemouth 18–20 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,001 26% 43% 19% 12% 17% 11–13 Sep Populus/The Times 1,506 27% 41% 18% 14% 14% 10–11 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 2,009 27% 41% 17% 15% 14% 4–6 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,005 24% 40% 21% 15% 16% 4–6 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,573 27% 40% 18% 15% 13% 27–28 Aug YouGov/The Sun 1,996 28% 42% 17% 14% 14% 25–27 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,199 26% 42% 18% 14% 16% 21–23 Aug Ipsos MORI 1,013 26% 43% 17% 13% 17% 21–23 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,004 25% 41% 19% 14% 16% 19–20 Aug ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,013 24% 41% 18% 16% 17% 13–14 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 2,007 28% 42% 18% 13% 14% 12–13 Aug ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,005 26% 43% 19% 12% 17% 28–30 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,334 27% 41% 18% 15% 14% 24–26 July ComRes/The Independent 1,008 24% 42% 18% 16% 18% 23 July Norwich North by-election: Labour lose seat vacated by Ian Gibson following the
MPs' expenses scandal to the Conservatives on a 16.5% swing.21–23 July YouGov/The People 2,218 25% 40% 20% 16% 15% 17–19 July Ipsos MORI 1,012 24% 40% 18% 18% 16% 17–19 July Populus/The Times 1,504 26% 38% 20% 16% 12% 16–17 July YouGov/Sunday Times 1,956 25% 42% 18% 15% 17% 15–16 July ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,010 23% 38% 22% 16% 15% 10–11 July ICM/The Guardian 1,000 27% 41% 20% 12% 14% 1–3 July YouGov/Fabian Society 2,001 26% 39% 19% 17% 13% 26–28 June ComRes/The Independent 1,007 25% 36% 19% 20% 11% 24–26 June YouGov/The People 2,017 24% 40% 17% 19% 16% 23–25 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,233 25% 38% 18% 19% 13% 19–21 June Ipsos MORI 1,004 21% 38% 19% 23% 17% 17–18 June ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,012 22% 39% 18% 21% 17% 10–17 June Harris Interative/Metro 2,081 20% 35% 16% 29% 15% 12–14 June Ipsos MORI/UNISON 1,252 25% 39% 19% 17% 14% 12–14 June ICM/The Guardian 1,006 27% 39% 18% 15% 12% 11–12 June YouGov/Sunday Times 1,902 24% 40% 18% 19% 16% 9–10 June Populus/The Times 1,001 24% 36% 19% 21% 12% 8 June European Parliament election: Labour fall into third place in the popular vote behind Conservatives and UKIP. National vote shares:
Conservatives 27% (25 seats, +1), UKIP 16% (13 seats, +1), Labour 15% (13 seats, −5), Liberal Democrats 14% (11 seats, +1), Others 28%.5–7 June ComRes/The Independent 1,001 22% 38% 20% 20% 16% 5 June Local elections: Labour lose control of all their county councils. National vote shares: Conservatives 38%, Liberal Democrats 28%, Labour 23%.
In the aftermath of these results, Gordon Brown reshuffles his cabinet.3 June Communities and Local Government Secretary Hazel Blears resigns from cabinet in order to help Labour
"reconnect" with the people, leading to speculation about the future of PM Gordon Brown.2–3 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 4,014 21% 37% 19% 23% 16% 2 June It is revealed that Home Secretary Jacqui Smith and 2 junior ministers are to stand down from government at the forthcoming cabinet reshuffle. 29–31 May ComRes/The Independent 1,005 22% 30% 18% 30% 8% 29–31 May Ipsos MORI 1,001 18% 40% 18% 24% 22% 27–29 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 5,016 22% 39% 18% 21% 17% 27–28 May ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,013 22% 40% 25% 13% 15% over LD 27–28 May Populus/The Times 1,001 21% 41% 15% 23% 20% 19–20 May Populus/ITV News 1,000 27% 39% 17% 18% 12% 15–17 May ICM/The Guardian 1,002 28% 39% 20% 14% 11% 17 MayP BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] Unknown[11] 20% 42% 15% 23% 22% 14–16 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,235 23% 39% 19% 19% 16% 13–14 May ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,010 21% 40% 18% 21% 19% 13–14 May YouGov/The Sun 1,814 22% 41% 19% 18% 19% 8–10 May Populus/The Times 1,504 26% 39% 22% 13% 13% 8–9 May BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] Unknown[11] 23% 45% 17% 15% 22% 8 May The Daily Telegraph begins publishing full details of MPs' expenses 7–8 May YouGov/Sunday Times 2,209 27% 43% 18% 12% 16% 1–4 May ICM/Taxpayers' Alliance 1,002 27% 41% 21% 11% 14% 24–26 April ComRes/The Independent 1,003 26% 45% 17% 12% 19% 23–24 April YouGov/Sunday People 1,855 27% 45% 17% 12% 18% 22–23 April YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,896 27% 45% 18% 10% 18% 22 April The government unveils its budget, including the introduction of a 50% tax rate and a large increase in public borrowing 17–19 April Ipsos MORI 1,011 28% 41% 22% 9% 13% 17–19 April ICM/The Guardian 1,005 30% 40% 19% 11% 10% 16–18 April BPIX/The Mail on Sunday [11] 1,889 26% 45% 17% 12% 19% 15–16 April Marketing Sciences/Sunday Telegraph 1,007 26% 43% 21% 10% 17% 12 April Gordon Brown's aide Damian McBride resigns after it is revealed he wrote a series of
emails proposing that false allegations be made about the private lives of several Tory MPs.3–5 April Populus/The Times 1,512 30% 43% 18% 9% 13% 3–4 April YouGov/Sunday Times 2,125 34% 41% 16% 10% 7% 2 April G-20 Leaders' Summit held in London and hosted by Gordon Brown
US$1.1 trillion package announced to stimulate global economic growth27–29 March ComRes/The Independent 1,002 28% 40% 18% 14% 12% 25–26 March ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,003 31% 44% 18% 8% 13% 24–26 March YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,104 31% 41% 17% 11% 10% 18–19 March ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,002 30% 41% 17% 12% 11% 13–15 March ICM/The Guardian 1,004 30% 42% 20% 8% 12% 13–15 March Ipsos MORI 1,007 32% 42% 14% 11% 10% 12–13 March YouGov/Sunday Times 1,840 31% 41% 17% 11% 10% 6–8 March Populus/The Times 1,504 30% 42% 19% 9% 12% 27 Feb-1 Mar ComRes/The Independent 1,006 28% 44% 17% 12% 16% 25 Feb David Cameron's disabled elder son, Ivan, dies aged 6 24–26 Feb YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,063 31% 41% 15% 12% 10% 20–22 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,004 30% 42% 18% 10% 12% 13–15 Feb Ipsos MORI 1,001 28% 48% 17% 7% 20% 12–13 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,711 32% 44% 14% 10% 12% 11–12 Feb ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,002 25% 41% 22% 12% 16% 6–8 Feb Populus/The Times 1,504 28% 42% 18% 12% 14% 4–5 Feb ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,010 28% 40% 22% 10% 12% 27–29 Jan YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,338 32% 43% 16% 10% 11% 28 Jan Hundreds of workers commence wildcat strikes at the Lindsey Oil Refinery in protest of
contracts awarded to foreign companies at a time of high local levels of unemployment23–25 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,003 32% 44% 16% 8% 12% 23 Jan The United Kingdom officially enters recession for the first time in 18 years 21–22 Jan ComRes/The Independent 1,012 28% 43% 16% 13% 15% 16–18 Jan Ipsos MORI 1,005 30% 44% 17% 9% 14% 15–16 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 2,077 32% 45% 14% 9% 13% 15 Jan The Government announces that the controversial third runway at Heathrow airport will be built 14–15 Jan ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,009 32% 41% 15% 12% 9% 9-11 Jan Populus/The Times 1,500 33% 43% 15% 9% 10% 7–8 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,835 34% 41% 15% 10% 7% 2008
Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample Size Labour Conservative Liberal Democrats Other Lead 19–21 Dec ComRes/The Independent 1,000 34% 39% 16% 11% 5% 16–18 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,241 35% 42% 14% 9% 7% 12–14 Dec Ipsos MORI 1,000 35% 39% 15% 11% 4% 12–14 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,003 33% 38% 19% 10% 5% 11–12 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 2,098 35% 41% 15% 10% 6% 10–11 Dec ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,003 36% 37% 14% 12% 1% 10–11 Dec Ipsos MORI 1,007 36% 41% 11% 12% 5% 5–7 Dec Populus/The Times 1,505 35% 39% 17% 9% 4% 28–30 Nov ComRes/The Independent 1,005 36% 37% 17% 10% 1% 27–28 Nov Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,017 32% 43% 15% 10% 11% 25–26 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,027 30% 45% 18% 7% 15% 27 Nov Conservative MP Damian Green is arrested over alleged leaks of Home
Office information, prompting a widespread row over the circumstances
surrounding his arrest24–25 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,556 36% 40% 14% 10% 4% 24 Nov 2008 Pre-Budget Report released, including a temporary cut in VAT
to 15%, and the introduction of a new 45% income tax band from 201119–20 Nov ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,010 31% 42% 19% 8% 11% 14–16 Nov Ipsos MORI 1,002 37% 40% 12% 11% 3% 13–14 Nov YouGov/Sunday Times 2,080 36% 41% 14% 10% 5% 12–13 Nov ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,010 32% 43% 12% 13% 11% 7–9 Nov Populus/The Times 1,503 35% 41% 16% 8% 6% 5–6 Nov ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,005 30% 43% 18% 9% 13% 6 Nov Glenrothes by-election: Labour unexpectedly hold seat with a 6,737 majority.
Bank of England cuts interest rates by 1.5% to 3%.2 NovP BPIX[11] ? 31% 45% 13% 11% 14% 27–29 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,271 33% 42% 15% 10% 9% 24–26 Oct ComRes/The Independent 1,001 31% 39% 16% 14% 8% 17–19 Oct Ipsos MORI 1,004 30% 45% 14% 11% 15% 17–19 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,007 30% 42% 21% 7% 12% 16–18 Oct BPIX[11] 2,046 30% 46% 13% 11% 16% 15–17 Oct YouGov/Daily Mirror 2,029 34% 42% 14% 10% 8% 15–16 Oct ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,005 31% 40% 16% 14% 9% 9–10 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 1,941 33% 43% 14% 10% 10% 8 Oct Government announce £500bn bank rescue plan amid the ongoing
global financial crisis3–5 Oct Populus/The Times 1,503 30% 45% 15% 10% 15% 1–3 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,048 31% 45% 15% 9% 14% 1 Oct David Cameron makes his speech to the Conservative conference 26–28 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,017 29% 41% 18% 12% 12% 24–26 Sep BPIX[11] 2,020 31% 43% 17% 9% 12% 24–25 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,012 32% 41% 18% 9% 9% 23–24 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,536 31% 41% 16% 12% 10% 23 Sep Gordon Brown delivers his keynote speech to Labour Conference 17–18 Sep ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,010 27% 39% 21% 12% 12% 17–19 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,227 24% 44% 20% 12% 20% 17 Sep Nick Clegg delivers his speech to Liberal Democrat conference 12–14 Sep Ipsos MORI 1,017 24% 52% 12% 12% 28% 10–12 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 2,161 27% 46% 16% 11% 19% 3–4 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,013 25% 44% 17% 14% 19% 29–31 Aug Populus/The Times 1,506 27% 43% 18% 12% 16% 26–27 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,267 26% 45% 16% 13% 19% 20–21 Aug ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,014 25% 46% 16% 13% 21% 15–17 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,002 29% 44% 19% 8% 15% 15–17 Aug Ipsos MORI 1,005 24% 48% 16% 12% 24% 14–15 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 1,745 25% 45% 18% 12% 20% 6–8 Aug YouGov/News of the World 2,031 26% 46% 17% 11% 20% 31 Jul – 2 Aug BPIX[11] 1,333 24% 47% 16% 13% 23% 30 Jul – 1 Aug ICM/Sunday Express 1,001 29% 45% 16% 10% 16% 29–31 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,949 25% 47% 16% 12% 22% 25–27 July Populus/The Times 1,002 27% 43% 18% 12% 16% 23–25 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,120 26% 45% 17% 12% 19% 23–24 July ComRes/The Independent 1,021 24% 46% 18% 12% 22% 24 July Glasgow East by-election: Labour lose their 3rd safest Scottish seat
to the SNP on a 22.5% swing18–20 July Ipsos MORI 1,016 27% 47% 15% 11% 20% 18–20 July ICM/The Guardian 1,007 28% 43% 19% 10% 15% 16–17 July ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,016 24% 45% 16% 15% 21% 10–11 July YouGov/Sunday Times 1,832 25% 47% 16% 12% 22% 4–6 July Populus/The Times 1,507 28% 41% 19% 12% 13% 25–26 June ComRes/The Independent 1,007 25% 46% 18% 11% 21% 23–25 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,163 28% 46% 15% 11% 18% 26 June Henley by-election: Conservatives hold Boris Johnson's former seat,
whilst Labour fall to fifth place behind Green Party and BNP20–22 June ICM/The Guardian 1,000 25% 45% 20% 10% 20% 18–20 June BPIX[11] 2,385 26% 49% 14% 11% 23% 13–15 June Ipsos MORI 1,012 28% 45% 16% 11% 17% 11–12 June ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,012 26% 44% 17% 13% 18% 12–13 June YouGov/Sunday Times 1,769 25% 47% 18% 10% 22% 6–8 June Populus/The Times 1,508 25% 45% 20% 10% 20% 4–5 June ICM/The Sunday Telegraph 1,023 26% 42% 21% 11% 16% 30 May-1 June ComRes/The Independent 1,006 30% 44% 16% 10% 14% 27–29 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,241 23% 47% 18% 12% 24% 22 May Crewe and Nantwich by-election: Conservatives gain seat
from Labour with a 17% swing16–18 May ICM/The Guardian 1,008 27% 41% 22% 10% 14% 15–16 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,854 25% 45% 18% 12% 20% 14–15 May ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,004 26% 43% 19% 12% 17% 7–8 May YouGov/The Sun 1,571 23% 49% 17% 11% 26% 2–4 May Populus/The Times 1,509 29% 40% 19% 11% 11% 1 May Local elections held across England & Wales in which Labour
falls to 3rd place in the popular vote
Labour loses London Mayoralty to the Conservatives25–27 Apr ComRes/The Independent 1,005 26% 40% 20% 14% 14% 23–24 Apr ICM/The Sunday Telegraph 1,010 29% 39% 20% 12% 10% 21–23 Apr YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,073 26% 44% 17% 13% 18% 17–22 Apr Ipsos-MORI/The Observer 1,059 31% 40% 19% 10% 9% 18–20 Apr ICM/The Gurdian 1,000 34% 39% 19% 8% 5% 16–17 Apr Populus/Sunday Mirror 1,006 30% 40% 19% 11% 10% 10–11 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,755 28% 44% 17% 11% 16% 8–10 Apr Populus/The Times 1,502 33% 39% 17% 6% 6% 2–3 Apr ICM/The Sunday Telegraph 1,010 32% 43% 18% 7% 11% 28–30 Mar ComRes/The Independent 1,004 31% 38% 17% 14% 7% 25–27 Mar YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,926 29% 43% 17% 11% 14% 13–18 Mar Ipsos MORI 1,983 35% 40% 18% 7% 5% 14–16 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,003 29% 42% 21% 8% 13% 13–14 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 2,311 27% 43% 16% 13% 16% 12–13 Mar ICM/News of the World 1,002 31% 40% 20% 9% 9% 12 Mar Alistair Darling delivers his first budget as Chancellor 7–9 Mar Populus/The Times 1,502 34% 37% 19% 10% 3% 25–27 Feb YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,011 33% 40% 16% 11% 7% 21–26 Feb Ipsos MORI 2,063 37% 39% 16% 8% 2% 22–24 Feb ComRes/The Independent 1,010 30% 41% 17% 12% 11% 18–20 Feb YouGov/The Economist 2,118 34% 40% 16% 11% 6% 15–17 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,003 34% 37% 21% 8% 3% 17 Feb The Government nationalises troubled bank Northern Rock 14–15 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 2,469 32% 41% 16% 11% 9% 1–3 Feb Populus/The Times 1,504 31% 40% 17% 12% 9% 30–31 Jan ICM/The Sunday Telegraph 1,012 32% 37% 21% 10% 5% 25–27 Jan ComRes/The Independent 1,003 30% 38% 17% 15% 8% 24 Jan Peter Hain resigns as Work and Pensions and Wales Secretary 21–23 Jan YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,992 33% 41% 16% 10% 8% 17–22 Jan Ipsos MORI 2,045 38% 37% 16% 9% 1% 18–20 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,009 35% 37% 20% 8% 2% 10–11 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 2,139 33% 43% 14% 11% 10% 9–10 Jan ICM/The Sunday Telegraph 1,011 33% 40% 18% 9% 7% 9–10 Jan Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,006 32% 42% 15% 11% 10% 4–6 Jan Populus/The Times 1,509 33% 37% 19% 11% 4% 2007
Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample Size Labour Conservative Liberal Democrats Other Lead 18–19 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,034 34% 39% 18% 9% 5% 17–19 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,060 31% 43% 16% 11% 12% 18 Dec Nick Clegg wins Liberal Democrat leadership election 14–16 Dec ComRes/The Independent 1,004 30% 41% 16% 12% 11% 13–14 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 1,481 32% 45% 14% 10% 13% 7–9 Dec Populus/The Times 1,506 32% 40% 16% 11% 8% 29 Nov-7 Dec Ipsos MORI 1,859 35% 42% 14% 9% 7% 28–29 Nov ICM/News of the World 1,011 30% 41% 19% 10% 11% 26–29 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 4,004 32% 43% 14% 11% 11% 23–27 Nov Ipsos MORI 1,933 32% 41% 17% 10% 9% 23–25 Nov ComRes/The Independent 1,009 27% 41% 18% 15% 13% 21–22 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,005 31% 37% 21% 10% 6% 21–22 Nov YouGov/Channel 4 News 1,600 32% 41% 14% 13% 9% 20 Nov Child Benefit Data Scandal: Revenue & Customs confirm they have
lost two discs containing bank details of 7.25m child benefit claimants14–16 Nov YouGov/Sunday Times 1,983 35% 41% 13% 11% 6% 8–10 Nov ICM/Sunday Express 1,001 35% 43% 15% 7% 8% 2–4 Nov Populus/The Times 1,503 37% 36% 16% 11% 1% 31 Oct-1 Nov Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,013 35% 40% 13% 12% 5% 26–28 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,011 35% 40% 18% 7% 5% 26–28 Oct ComRes/The Independent 1,002 33% 42% 15% 10% 8% 22–24 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,105 38% 41% 11% 10% 3% 18–23 Oct Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,987 41% 40% 13% 6% 1% 15 Oct Sir Menzies Campbell resigns as Liberal Democrat leader 10–11 Oct ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,010 36% 43% 14% 8% 7% 10 Oct Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,007 38% 41% 11% 10% 3% 5–6 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 1,757 38% 41% 11% 10% 3% 5–7 Oct Populus/The Times 1,008 40% 38% 12% 10% 2% 6 Oct After weeks of speculation, Gordon Brown announces he will not
be calling a general election "in the next period"3–4 Oct YouGov/Channel 4 News 1,741 40% 36% 13% 11% 4% 3–4 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,008 38% 38% 16% 8% 0% 2–3 Oct Populus/The Times 1,000 39% 36% 15% 10% 3% 3 Oct David Cameron delivers his speech to Conservative conference 26–28 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,165 43% 32% 15% 10% 11% 27–28 Sep Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,000 41% 34% 16% 9% 7% 26–27 Sep Populus/The Times 1,002 41% 31% 17% 10% 10% 20–26 Sep Ipsos MORI 1,964 44% 31% 15% 10% 13% 24–25 Sep YouGov/Channel 4 News 1,341 44% 33% 13% 11% 11% 24 Sep Gordon Brown delivers first conference speech as Labour leader 20–22 Sep Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,009 42% 34% 14% 10% 8% 19–21 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,085 39% 33% 16% 12% 6% 19–20 Sep ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,029 39% 33% 19% 9% 6% 13–16 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,005 40% 32% 20% 8% 8% 13–14 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,942 39% 34% 15% 12% 5% 11–12 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,005 37% 34% 15% 14% 3% 31 Aug-2 Sep Populus/The Times 1,506 37% 36% 18% 9% 1% 29–31 Aug YouGov/GMTV 2,154 38% 35% 15% 12% 3% 29–30 Aug ComRes/The Independent 1,016 35% 36% 14% 14% 1% 23–29 Aug Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,941 41% 36% 16% 7% 5% 25–28 Aug Populus/Conservative Party 530 37% 36% 16% 10% 1% 24–28 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,266 41% 33% 14% 12% 9% 22–23 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,016 39% 34% 18% 9% 5% 9–10 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 1,966 42% 32% 14% 12% 10% 8–10 Aug ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,007 39% 33% 18% 10% 6% 8–9 Aug Ipsos MORI/The Sun 531 38% 33% 15% 14% 5% 27–29 July Populus/The Times 1,511 39% 33% 15% 13% 6% 27–29 July Communicate/The Independent 1,006 37% 34% 16% 14% 3% 23–25 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,877 41% 32% 16% 11% 9% 20–22 July ICM/The Guardian 1,005 38% 32% 20% 10% 6% 19–20 July YouGov/Sunday Times 1,664 40% 33% 15% 12% 7% 12–17 July Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,919 41% 35% 15% 9% 6% 4–5 July ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,006 37% 35% 17% 10% 2% 1 July Populus/The Times 1,504 37% 34% 18% 11% 3% 30 June Glasgow Airport Terrorist Attack 28–29 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,886 38% 35% 15% 12% 3% 29 June Two cars bombs are discovered in central London 27–28 June ICM/The Guardian 1,005 39% 35% 18% 8% 4% 27 June Gordon Brown is appointed Prime Minister 22–24 June Communicate/The Independent 1,005 32% 37% 18% 13% 5% 14–20 June Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,970 39% 36% 15% 10% 3% 14–15 June YouGov/Sunday Times 1,753 35% 37% 14% 14% 2% 1–3 June Populus 1,503 33% 36% 17% 14% 3% 30–31 May ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,014 32% 37% 21% 10% 5% 25–28 May Communicate/The Independent 1,003 31% 35% 19% 15% 4% 21–23 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,050 33% 39% 15% 13% 6% 18–20 May ICM/The Guardian 1,003 32% 34% 21% 12% 2% 11–13 May Populus/The Times 1,504 33% 37% 17% 13% 4% 10–11 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,962 34% 38% 15% 14% 4% 10 May Tony Blair announces his resignation as Labour Party
leader and Prime Minister3 May Election 2007: Labour lose Scottish Parliament election to the SNP 23–25 Apr YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,019 32% 37% 18% 14% 5% 19–25 Apr Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,163 31% 38% 20% 11% 7% 20–22 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,005 30% 37% 21% 12% 7% 13–15 Apr Populus/The Times 1,503 29% 37% 20% 14% 8% 4–5 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 2,218 31% 39% 16% 14% 8% 26–28 Mar YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,042 32% 39% 17% 13% 7% 23–25 Mar Communicate 1,002 31% 35% 20% 14% 4% 21–22 Mar YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,752 31% 39% 16% 14% 8% 16–18 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,011 31% 41% 18% 10% 10% 15–16 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,897 32% 38% 16% 14% 6% 9–15 Mar Ipsos MORI 1,983 33% 41% 17% 9% 8% 2–4 Mar Populus/The Times 1,509 30% 38% 18% 14% 8% 23–25 Feb Communicate 1,001 29% 40% 17% 14% 11% 19–21 Feb YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,292 32% 37% 17% 14% 5% 16–18 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,000 31% 40% 19% 10% 9% 8–9 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 2,019 32% 37% 18% 14% 5% 2–4 Feb Populus/The Times 1,509 33% 36% 19% 12% 3% 19–29 Jan Ipsos MORI 949 35% 39% 19% 7% 4% 26–28 Jan Communicate 1,008 29% 34% 21% 16% 5% 22–24 Jan YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,245 31% 38% 18% 13% 7% 19–21 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,004 31% 37% 23% 9% 6% 5–7 Jan Populus/The Times 1,507 32% 39% 18% 11% 7% 2006
Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample Size Labour Conservative Liberal Democrats Other Lead 20–22 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 1,918 32% 37% 15% 15% 5% 18–20 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,874 33% 37% 17% 13% 4% 19–20 Dec Communicate 1,009 37% 36% 14% 14% 1% 15–17 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,006 32% 40% 18% 10% 8% 9–12 Dec Ipsos MORI 1,938 36% 37% 18% 9% 1% 8–10 Dec Populus/The Times 1,513 33% 34% 19% 14% 1% 28–30 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,979 32% 37% 16% 15% 5% 29–30 Nov ICM/News of the World 1,006 31% 39% 20% 10% 8% 24–26 Nov Communicate 1,004 36% 34% 17% 12% 2% 17–19 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,000 32% 37% 22% 9% 5% 9–14 Nov Ipsos MORI 1,115 33% 35% 20% 12% 2% 3–5 Nov Populus/The Times 1,510 33% 36% 20% 11% 3% 24–26 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,722 32% 39% 16% 13% 7% 20–22 Oct Communicate 977 32% 38% 14% 15% 6% 20–22 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,019 29% 39% 22% 9% 10% 12–16 Oct Ipsos MORI/Financial Times 1,113 37% 35% 18% 10% 2% 6–8 Oct Populus/The Times 1,515 35% 36% 18% 11% 1% 4–5 Oct ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,005 32% 38% 20% 10% 6% 28–30 Sep ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,029 35% 36% 19% 11% 1% 27–29 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,849 36% 36% 16% 12% 0% 21–22 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,546 33% 37% 18% 12% 4% 19–22 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,733 31% 38% 18% 13% 7% 19–20 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,066 32% 36% 22% 10% 4% 13–14 Sep ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,003 33% 37% 21% 8% 4% 13–14 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,519 31% 38% 18% 14% 7% 6–7 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,504 32% 40% 17% 11% 8% 31 Aug – 6 Sep Ipsos MORI/Sunday Times 1,186 36% 35% 19% 10% 1% 1–3 Sep Populus/The Times 1,504 32% 36% 20% 13% 4% 22–24 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,757 31% 38% 18% 13% 7% 18–20 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,007 31% 40% 22% 8% 9% 10 Aug Government and Police reveal details of the transatlantic aircraft plot 24–26 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,633 33% 38% 18% 11% 5% 20–24 July Ipsos MORI 1,897 32% 36% 24% 8% 4% 21–23 July ICM/The Guardian 1,001 35% 39% 17% 9% 4% 7–9 July Populus/The Times 1,512 34% 36% 19% 11% 2% 29 June Blaenau Gwent by-election: Independents retain seat
Bromley & Chiselhurst by-election: Conservatives hold safe seat
but see their majority fall by 12,70928–29 June ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,003 35% 36% 18% 11% 1% 26–28 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,962 33% 39% 18% 10% 6% 22–26 June Ipsos MORI 1,931 33% 36% 21% 10% 3% 21–23 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,009 32% 39% 17% 12% 7% 16–18 June ICM/The Guardian 1,005 32% 37% 21% 9% 5% 8–12 June Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,975 34% 41% 18% 7% 7% 2–4 June Populus/The Times 1,505 34% 37% 18% 11% 3% 25–30 May Ipsos MORI 1,984 31% 41% 18% 10% 10% 23–25 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,102 32% 38% 16% 14% 6% 19–21 May ICM/The Guardian 1,001 34% 38% 20% 8% 4% 8–9 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,910 31% 37% 17% 15% 6% 5–7 May Populus/The Times 1,516 30% 38% 20% 11% 8% 5 May Amid poor local election results, Tony Blair reshuffles his cabinet 4 May 2006 Local Elections: Labour suffer significant losses
across the country27 Apr-2 May Ipsos MORI/Financial Times 1,078 32% 36% 21% 11% 4% 27–28 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,930 32% 35% 18% 15% 3% 21–23 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,006 32% 34% 24% 10% 2% 20–22 Apr Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,006 30% 30% 25% 15% 0% 18–20 Apr YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,075 35% 33% 17% 15% 2% 31 Mar-2 Apr Populus/The Times 1,503 36% 34% 21% 10% 2% 27–29 Mar YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,873 36% 36% 18% 10% 0% 16–21 Mar Ipsos MORI 1,155 39% 34% 19% 8% 5% 16–18 Mar ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,003 37% 33% 21% 9% 4% 16–17 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,811 35% 38% 19% 8% 3% 10–12 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,006 37% 34% 21% 8% 3% 3–5 Mar Populus/The Times 1,509 35% 35% 20% 9% 0% 2 Mar Sir Menzies Campbell elected leader of the Liberal Democrats 21–22 Feb YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,019 36% 38% 18% 9% 2% 16–20 Feb Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,143 38% 35% 20% 7% 3% 17–19 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,002 34% 37% 21% 8% 3% 9–10 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,617 39% 37% 15% 10% 2% 9 Feb Dunfermline & West Fife by-election: Labour lose Scottish seat
to the Liberal Democrats3–5 Feb Populus/The Times 1,508 36% 37% 18% 9% 1% 24–26 Jan YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,096 40% 39% 13% 9% 1% 19–23 Jan Ipsos MORI 1,163 38% 40% 17% 5% 2% 20–22 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,009 36% 37% 19% 7% 1% 12–17 Jan Ipsos MORI/The Sun 541 39% 39% 15% 7% 0% 6–8 Jan Populus/The Times 1,509 39% 36% 16% 9% 3% 7 Jan Charles Kennedy resigns as Liberal Democrat leader after it is
revealed he has a drink problem2005
Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Sample Size Labour Conservative Liberal Democrats Other Lead 15–18 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,004 36% 37% 21% 7% 1% 13–15 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,071 36% 38% 18% 8% 2% 9–12 Dec MORI/The Observer 1,000 31% 40% 20% 9% 9% 9-11 Dec Populus/The Times 1,521 38% 35% 19% 8% 3% 6–8 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 2,089 36% 37% 18% 8% 1% 7–8 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,003 35% 37% 21% 7% 2% 6 Dec David Cameron is elected leader of the Conservative Party 5–6 Dec YouGov/Sky News 1,612 36% 36% 18% 10% 0% 22–24 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,616 37% 35% 20% 8% 2% 17–22 Nov MORI 1,089 42% 32% 19% 7% 10% 18–20 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,013 38% 33% 19% 10% 5% 9 Nov House of Commons rejects Government plans that would allow
suspected terrorists to be held for 90 days without charge4–6 Nov Populus/The Times 1,512 40% 32% 19% 9% 8% 2–3 Nov ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,010 39% 33% 21% 7% 6% 25–27 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,947 40% 32% 19% 9% 8% 20–25 Oct MORI 1,904 40% 34% 21% 5% 6% 19–20 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,007 36% 33% 22% 8% 3% 7–9 Oct Populus/The Times 1,509 40% 30% 21% 9% 10% 5–6 Oct ICM/News of the World 1,015 38% 32% 22% 8% 5% 27–29 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,183 40% 32% 20% 9% 8% 22–26 Sep MORI 1,132 39% 29% 25% 7% 10% 16–17 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,013 40% 31% 21% 8% 9% 8–9 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,856 37% 32% 21% 10% 5% 2–4 Sep Populus/The Times 1,506 37% 35% 20% 8% 2% 19–24 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph – 40% 33% 20% 7% 7% 11–15 Aug MORI 1,191 39% 31% 24% 6% 8% 12–14 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,006 38% 31% 22% 9% 7% 26–28 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph – 40% 31% 21% 8% 9% 22–24 July Populus/The Times 1,506 40% 28% 22% 10% 12% 14–18 July MORI/The Observer 1,227 41% 28% 25% 6% 13% 15–17 July ICM/The Guardian 1,005 39% 31% 23% 7% 8% 7 July July 7 Terrorist Attacks: 4 co-ordinated suicide bombers detonate
explosives on morning rush hour tube and bus services in London6 July London wins right to host 2012 Summer Olympics 28–30 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 3,717 38% 33% 20% 9% 5% 16–20 June MORI 1,227 42% 29% 21% 8% 13% 17–19 June ICM/The Guardian 1,005 38% 31% 23% 8% 7% 24–26 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph – 38% 31% 23% 8% 7% 19–23 May MORI/Financial Times 1,274 37% 30% 26% 7% 7% 5 May 2005 general election (GB figures)[12] N/A 36.2% 33.2% 22.7% 7.9% 3% Notes
- ^ Predicting Results UK Polling Report
- ^ Pollwatch: Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the post The Guardian, 18 April 2010
- ^ The Lib Dems surge in Britain Washington Examiner
- ^ Election 2010: Lib Dem policies targeted by rivals BBC News, 19 April 2010
- ^ Anthony Wells (10 December 2005). "Tories take the Lead". UKPollingReport. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/104. Retrieved 15 March 2010.
- ^ YouGov show Tory lead cut to 7 points UK Polling Report, 29 January 2010
- ^ General election 2010: All change for new politics The Guardian, 20 April 2010
- ^ Election Exit Poll: Tories will be 19 short of majority BBC News, 6 May 2010
- ^ a b "Live coverage – General Election 2010". BBC News. 6 May 2010. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/liveevent/. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
- ^ "Parties surprised by exit poll". BBC News. 6 May 2010. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8666266.stm. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v It should be noted that BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council, unlike the other main pollsters such as YouGov, ComRes, Populus, Ipsos MORI, and ICM. Therefore, the full details of its polls are not subject to public disclosure.
- ^ Opinion polling is conducted on a Great Britain basis, and election forecasting also uses GB figures. Northern Ireland, being outside the main party system, is treated separately.
P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.
External links
- Ipsos Mori archive of all pollsters' polls
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- Electoral Calculus
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- ComRes Polls
- Latest polling results and seat projections from Angus Reid Public Opinion
United Kingdom general election, 2010 Boundary changes · Constituencies · Debates · MPs elected · MPs standing down · Newspaper endorsements · Opinion polling · Parties · Results breakdown · Results by constituency
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