Opinion polling for the Croatian parliamentary election, 2011

Opinion polling for the Croatian parliamentary election, 2011 started early after the previous election with polls on individual parties. As electoral coalitions were formed, coalition ratings started to be polled as well.

The poll results below are listed by category and ordered in reverse chronological order. Major political events are indicated chronologically between individual polls.

Polling was also done for the next Croatian referendum likely to be held in late 2011.

Poll results

Conducted/ Published	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample size	HDZ	Kukuriku	HSS	HDSSB	HSP	HSLS	Labour	ZK/BUZ	Other	Undecided
2-3 Nov	CRO Demoskop	1,300	18.3%	37.2%	3.6%	2.5%	3.9%	3.1%	5.7%	3%	4.7%	18%
31 Oct	General election officially called: President of the Republic agrees to a dissolution of Parliament, allowing the general election to take place on 4 December.[1]
28 Oct	MPs vote to dissolve Parliament.[2]
28 Oct	Former PM and leader of HDZ Ivo Sanader appears in court for the first of many pending trials for corruption. [3]
27 Oct	As a result of the ongoing investigation of the party's 'black funds', USKOK and the Attorney General issue an indictment against HDZ as a legal entity.[4]
25 Oct	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	20.3%	38.8%	2.5%	1.6%	4.7%	1.6%	6.3%	4.4%	6.8%	13%
13 Oct	After Vladimir Šeks and HDZ caused a number of incidents in a parliamentary immunity proceedings, most of the opposition parties (Kukuriku coalition and Labour) decided to boycott the work of the Sabor. Their concerns were also echoed by SDSS which is part of the ruling coalition, causing a quorum issue.[5]
3-4 Oct	CRO Demoskop	1,300	19%	36.7%	4.4%	2.5%	3.7%	3.5%	~5%		7.2%	18%
27 Sep	HDZ reveals its manifesto for the upcoming election.[6]
26 Sep	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	20.1%	37.2%	4.2%	3.5%	4.5%	2.5%	6.1%	5.1%	7.2%	9.6%
23 Sep	USKOK issues a second indictment against Ivo Sanader for taking a 10 million euro bribe from MOL[7]
18 Sep	Hendal for HRT	873	10%	33.4%	0.9%	0.9%	1.9%	1.6%	2.4%		8.7%	40.2%
17 Sep	HDZ holds its 14th party convention.[8]
15 Sep	Kukuriku coalition reveals its political manifesto called 'Plan 21'.[9]
11 Sep	Former HDZ treasurer Branka Pavošević testifies to USKOK about the party's 'black funds' and illegal finances used for previous elections.[10]
1-2 Sep	CRO Demoskop	1,300	20.4%	37%	4.4%	2%	2.8%	3.2%	4.9%		7%	19.7%
25 Aug	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	20.8%	35.3%	5.7%	3.5%	3.5%	3.2%	5.3%	4.3%	9.5%	12.1%

Seat projections

Because the seats in the Parliament are split according to Croatian Parliament electoral districts, seat projections significantly vary from a generic overall poll.

The seat projections do not include:

• the 8 seats from minority voters, and these representatives are not usually strictly aligned with mainstream parties
• the 3 seats from voters residing abroad, which have in every election since independence gone to HDZ

The new composition of Parliament will have 151 seats meaning that 76 seats will be needed for a majority.

Because of the nature of the D'Hondt method, seat projections are less reliable, so some polls list tentative options, indicated in parenthesis.

Conducted/ Published	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample size	HDZ	Kukuriku	HSS	HDSSB	HSP	HSLS	Labour	ZK/BUZ	Other
4 Nov 2011	Ipsos Puls for Večernji list, Media servis & Nova TV	4,047	41	78	2 (3)	4	1	1	7 (3)	4	2 (1)
14-28 Oct 2011	GFK for RTL	4,000	35	90	0	3	5	1	5	1	0
25 Oct 2011	Promocija Plus for HNS	8,000	44	77	2 (2)	4 (1)	2	0 (4)	6	2 (3)	3

Early polling

Coalition rating

• 

  Ipsos Puls poll performance for the two hypothetical alliances.

• 

  CRO Demoskop poll performance for the two hypothetical alliances.

Date(s) Conducted/Published	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample size	HDZ-HSS	Kukuriku	Lead
1–3 August 2011	CRO Demoskop	1,300	25.0%	37.4%	12.4%
25 July 2011	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	25.3%	37.8%	12.5%
1–2 July 2011	CRO Demoskop	1,300	21.5%	38%	16.5%
26 June 2011	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	20.6%	35.9%	15.3%
2–3 June 2011	CRO Demoskop	1,300	19.9%	39.8%	19.9%
25 May 2011	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	22%	38.2%	16.2%
2–3 May 2011	CRO Demoskop	1,300	19.9%	39.8%	19.9%
22 April 2011	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	22.5%	33.2%	10.7%
1–3 April 2011	CRO Demoskop	1,300	21.2%	40.4%	19.2%
24 March 2011	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	18.9%	40.9%	22%
4 March 2011	CRO Demoskop	1,300	24.4%	41.2%	16.8%
24 February 2011	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	24.2%	44.3%	20.1%
1 and 2 February 2011	CRO Demoskop	1,300	27.8%	42%	14.2%
25 January 2011	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	24.2%	44.3%	20.1%
3 and 4 January 2011	CRO Demoskop	1,300	27.9%	41.2%	13.3%
25 December 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	27.4%	47%	19.6%
7 December 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	2,619	20.5%	44%	23.5%
30 November and 1 December 2010	CRO Demoskop	1,300	27.5%	41.6%	14.1%
25 November 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	25.5%	42.1%	16.6%
2–3 November 2010	CRO Demoskop	1,300	27.6%	43.7%	16.1%
29 October 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	25.2%	40.5%	15.3%
4–5 October 2010	CRO Demoskop	1,300	28.2%	43%	14.8%
30 September 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	25.1%	41.6%	16.5%
1–2 September 2010	CRO Demoskop	1,300	28.5%	42.6%	14.1%
31 August 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	964	25.8%	42.9%	17.1%
1–2 August 2010	CRO Demoskop	1,300	27.9%	41.7%	13.8%
28 July 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	29.9%	40.5%	10.6%
13–16 July 2010	Mediana Fides for Jutarnji list	700	25%	44%	19%
30 June 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	30.7%	44.7%	14%
31 May 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	33%	42%	9%
30 April 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	962	36.4%	39.8%	3.4%
27 February 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	37.9%	42%	4.1%
29 January 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	32.9%	45.2%	12.3%

Party rating

• 

  CRO Demoskop poll performance since the last general election: Six parties

• 

  Ipsos Puls poll performance since February, 2009: Five parties

2011
Conducted/ Published	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample size	HDZ	SDP	HNS-LD	HSS	HSU	HSP	HSLS	Other	Undecided
23 Aug	Prizma for HDZ	3,000	24.9%	26.8%	7.3%	5.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1-3 Aug	CRO Demoskop	1,300	20.1%	28.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
25 Jul	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	23.8%	26.3%	6.2%	4.3%	3.2%	3.6%	3.3%	18.3%	11%
1-2 Jul	CRO Demoskop	1,300	18.4%	27.9%	5.5%	4.4%	3.2%	3.5%	2.2%	N/A	N/A
26 Jun	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	19.3%	26.6%	4.7%	4.7%	3.9%	4.6%	4.4%	17.3%	14.5%
2-3 Jun	CRO Demoskop	1,300	17.8%	29.8%	6.2%	3.9%	3.1%	3.5%	2.1%	N/A	N/A
25 May	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	20.3%	30.3%	4.4%	4.5%	4.7%	6.1%	2.9%	7.9%	14.7%
16 May	GFK for RTL	600	8%	26.4%	3.3%	0.9%	2.6%	1.5%	1.5%	N/A	40.9%
2–3 May	CRO Demoskop	1,300	18%	29%	5.9%	4.5%	3.1%	3.6%	2.6%	N/A	N/A
22 Apr	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	20.9%	26.9%	4.8%	2.8%	3.4%	4%	2.6%	16.8%	17.8%
15 Apr	Former Croatian general Ante Gotovina is sentenced to 24 years in prison by ICTY after being found guilty of war crimes during Operation Storm.[11]
1-3 Apr	CRO Demoskop	1,300	18.3%	29.2%	5.9%	5.1%	3%	3.1%	3.2%	N/A	N/A
24 Mar	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	17%	27.8%	5.5%	3.1%	5.1%	5.3%	2%	15.8%	18.4%
20 Mar	Mediana Fides for Jutarnji list	?	15.1%	26.7%	5%	1.3%	3.1%	1.5%	2.2%	N/A	15.9%
14 Mar	GFK for RTL	600	6.6%	30%	3.3%	0.6%	0.4%	1.5%	0.4%	N/A	41.7%
4 Mar	CRO Demoskop	1,300	19.2%	29.9%	5.9%	5.1%	2.9%	4%	3.1%	N/A	N/A
2 Mar	Anti-government protests are held across the country. The protesters burn the flags of major political parties as well as the flag of the European Union calling for an early general election.[12]
24 Feb	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	22%	29%	6.3%	4.5%	5.1%	3.2%	3.2%	14.1%	12.6%
1-2 Feb	CRO Demoskop	1,300	21.9%	31%	5.6%	5%	3.2%	3.8%	3.8%	N/A	N/A
25 Jan	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	22.5%	33.3%	5.2%	4.8%	4.1%	4.4%	N/A	12.5%	11.1%
3-4 Jan	CRO Demoskop	1,300	22.6%	31.2%	6%	5.1%	3.6%	3.9%	4.2%	N/A	N/A
2010
Conducted/ Published	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample size	HDZ	SDP	HNS-LD	HSS	HSU	HSP	HSLS	Other	Undecided
27 Dec	Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor reshuffles the Cabinet with four ministerial changes as well as adding a new Vice-Presidential post.[13]
25 Dec	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	24.7%	32%	6.9%	5.4%	3.9%	3.6%	4.2%	N/A	N/A
10 Dec	Ivo Sanader is arrested in Salzburg, Austria.[14]
9 Dec	Former Prime Minister and leader of HDZ Ivo Sanader flees the country after he is indicted under charges of corruption.[15] He is put on the Interpol wanted list.[16]
7 Dec	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	4,000	21.2%	34.3%	6.8%	3.8%	3.7%	4.4%	3.7%	14.2%	7.9%
30 Nov-1 Dec	CRO Demoskop	1,300	22.1%	32.8%	6.2%	5.2%	3.4%	3.8%	3.6%	N/A	N/A
25 Nov	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	24.3%	31.4%	6.4%	4.2%	3.9%	3.6%	3.5%	12.9%	9.8%
23 Nov	Leaders of the four main opposition parties: SDP, HNS-LD, IDS and HSU; sign a declaration in Kastav officially forming a coalition for the next parliamentary election called Alliance for Change[17]
2-3 Nov	CRO Demoskop	1,300	22.3%	32.8%	6.2%	5.3%	3.5%	3.1%	3.1%	N/A	N/A
29 Oct	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	22%	31%	6.4%	5.5%	3.6%	N/A	N/A	15.4%	13.7%
15 Oct	Former Vice President of the Government Damir Polančec is sentenced to 15 months in prison for abuse of power while Minister of the Economy. A letter surfaces where Polančec accuses Prime Minister Kosor and the Vice President of Parliament Vladimir Šeks of knowing the judge's verdict over a month before it was actually sentenced.[18]
13 Oct	Former Prime Minister Ivo Sanader reactivates his mandate in Parliament.[19]
4-5 Oct	CRO Demoskop	1,300	23%	32.5%	5.9%	5.1%	3.8%	2.9%	2.9%	N/A	N/A
30 Sep	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	26%	31.4%	7.5%	5.2%	5.3%	5.3%	N/A	9%	10.3%
1-2 Sep	CRO Demoskop	1,300	23.4%	32.3%	6%	5.1%	3%	2.2%	3.2%	N/A	N/A
31 Aug	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	964	25.7%	34.1%	5.6%	5.9%	5.5%	N/A	3.8%	8.4%	N/A
1-2 Aug	CRO Demoskop	1,300	22.7%	30.9%	6.2%	5.1%	3.2%	2.2%	1.9%	N/A	N/A
28 Jul	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	25.8%	30.8%	6.5%	6.1%	7%	4.2%	3%	8%	N/A
13-16 Jul	Mediana Fides for Jutarnji list	700	25.4%	32.4%	4.4%	3.7%	1.4%	2.4%	1.6%	6.2%	19.5%
12 Jul	The Government signs an agreement with three independents: the Croatian Social Liberal Party's two former representatives and Zlatko Horvat. This brings the governing coalition from 82 to 83 of 153 seats in parliament.[20]
11 Jul	The leaders of the four main opposition parties: SDP, HNS-LD, IDS and HSU; hold a meeting in Baranja and announce their intention to form a coalition for the next general election.
10 Jul	Darinko Kosor, the leader of the Croatian Social Liberal Party, announce his party's decision to leave the governing coalition.
1-2 Jul	CRO Demoskop	1,300	22.5%	31.5%	5.9%	5.1%	3.1%	2.5%	1.7%	N/A	N/A
30 Jun	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	24.5%	34.7%	6.6%	6.5%	3.9%	4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
24 Jun	Labour Unions announce they have collected the necessary amount of signatures to trigger a binding referendum against the new labour bill proposed by the Government.
1-2 Jun	CRO Demoskop	1,300	23.9%	30.5%	6.1%	5%	3%	2.6%	1.7%	N/A	N/A
31 May	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	28%	30%	8.4%	6.1%	3.9%	4.1%	N/A	18.7%	N/A
3–4 May	CRO Demoskop	1,300	23.4%	30.8%	6%	4.9%	2.8%	2.5%	1.6%	N/A	N/A
30 Apr	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	962	29.7%	30.4%	8.4%	4.8%	5.1%	N/A	N/A	11%	10%
31 Mar-1 April	CRO Demoskop	1,300	24.3%	31%	5.9%	5.1%	3%	2.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
30 Mar	Former Vice President of the Government of Croatia Damir Polančec, the Minister of the Economy in the Sanader II and, until his resignation, the current Kosor cabinet is arrested under charges of corruption during his tenure as a member of government.
25 Mar	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	?	27.7%	33%	6.9%	5.4%	4.4%	4.1%	N/A	7.5%	11%
4 Mar	CRO Demoskop	1,300	24%	32.2%	5.9%	5.3%	2.7%	1.9%	2.2%	N/A	N/A
27 Feb	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	?	30.2%	33.4%	7.7%	5.1%	4.2%	3.4%	2.8%	4.9%	N/A
3 Feb	CRO Demoskop	1,300	24%	32.6%	6.5%	5.1%	2.5%	1.7%	2%	N/A	N/A
29 Jan	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	27.6%	34%	8.3%	5.9%	5.7%	2.7%	2%	N/A	N/A
10 Jan	SDP presidential candidate Ivo Josipović is elected the third President of the Republic.
4-5 Jan	CRO Demoskop	1,300	23.5%	33%	6.2%	4.7%	2.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 Jan	Former Prime Minister Ivo Sanader issues a press conference attacking Jadranka Kosor, Andrija Hebrang and most of the HDZ party leaders for their 'failed leadership', announcing his return. He is expelled from the party the day after.
2009
Conducted/ Published	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample size	HDZ	SDP	HNS-LD	HSS	HSU	HSP	HSLS	Other	Undecided
31 Dec	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	?	27%	33%	7.8%	5.5%	4.9%	N/A	N/A	12.2%	9.6%
30 Nov-1 Dec	CRO Demoskop	1,300	24.2%	31%	6.8%	5.2%	3.3%	2.2%	2%	9%	18.5%
30 Nov	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	?	26.3%	32%	7.3%	5.2%	5.5%	3.8%	N/A	7.5%	12.4%
4 Nov	CRO Demoskop	1,300	24.6%	30.8%	6.5%	4.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
31 Oct	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	?	27.1%	31.7%	7.5%	7.3%	5.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
30 Oct	Damir Polančec, member of the HDZ Presidency, resigns as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Economy following allegations of corruption.
31 Sep-1 Oct	CRO Demoskop	1,300	24.1%	30.2%	7.1%	5.2%	3.8%	2.2%	1.3%	7.1%	21.2%
3 Sep	CRO Demoskop	1,300	21.9%	30.5%	6.9%	5.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 Aug	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	?	23.3%	34.8%	7.6%	5.5%	6.9%	3.1%	N/A	8.3%	10%
1-2 Jul	CRO Demoskop	1,300	23.7%	28.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 Jul	Prime Minister Ivo Sanader resigns giving no specific reason. Jadranka Kosor becomes the new Prime Minister.
6 May	CRO Demoskop	1,300	25.3%	28.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
31 Mar	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	30%	29.5%	7.4%	7.6%	4.1%	3.6%	N/A	8.3%	9.5%
5 Mar	CRO Demoskop	1,300	23%	29.5%	5.3%	5%	3.1%	3.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
28 Feb	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	29.3%	29%	8.1%	8%	4.8%	N/A	N/A	8.8%	12%
5 Feb	CRO Demoskop	1,300	25%	28.3%	5.6%	5.1%	3.3%	3.1%	1.3%	N/A	N/A
2008
Conducted/ Published	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample size	HDZ	SDP	HNS-LD	HSS	HSU	HSP	HSLS	Other	Undecided
3-4 Oct	CRO Demoskop	1,300	27.7%	29.2%	5.3%	5%	2.2%	4.2%	1.3%	6.7%	N/A
31 Jul-1 Aug	CRO Demoskop	1,300	31.8%	31.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 Jul	CRO Demoskop	1,300	32.9%	31.9%	5.4%	5.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 May	CRO Demoskop	1,300	33.7%	31.5%	5.4%	5.2%	N/A	1.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 Feb	CRO Demoskop	1,300	35.6%	33.8%	5.4%	4.1%	3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 Jan	The sixth assembly of Parliament is constituted.
7 Jan	CRO Demoskop	1,300	34.7%	33.1%	5.3%	4.1%	3.8%	3.5%	1.6%	N/A	N/A
2007
Conducted/ Published	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample size	HDZ	SDP	HNS-LD	HSS	HSU	HSP	HSLS	Other	Undecided
25 Nov	2007 parliamentary election	2,519,560	36.6%	31.2%	6.8%	6.5%*	4.1%*	3.5%	6.5%*	10.7%	N/A

^* – HSS and HSLS contested the election together, with HSS being the senior partner. HSU contested the election with another smaller party.

Seat projections

The seat projections do not include:

• the 8 seats from minority voters, and these representatives are not usually strictly aligned with mainstream parties
• the 3 seats from voters residing abroad, which have in every election since independence gone to HDZ

The new composition of Parliament will have 151 seats meaning that 76 seats will be needed for a majority.

Coalition rating

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample size	HDZ-HSS	Kukuriku	Other
7 December 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	2,619	41	85	14
25 November 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	49	80	11

Party rating

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample size	HDZ	SDP	HNS-LD	HSS	HDSSB	IDS	HSU	HSP	HSLS	Other
7 Dec 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	4,000	42	69	9	4	4	2	2	4	2	2
25 Nov 2010	Ipsos Puls for Nova TV	1,000	50	68	8	2	3	4	1	1	1	2

References

1. ^ Josipović raspisao izbore, Nacional
2. ^ Pogledajte sve snimke sa suđenja Sanaderu, Nova TV
3. ^ Ovo su bili najzanimljiviji trenuci u Saboru!, Nova TV
4. ^ J. Kosor: Neću dati ostavku i nećemo dopustiti da se HDZ uruši, Večernji list
5. ^ http://daily.tportal.hr/154001/Parl-t-speaker-HDZ-MPs-call-on-Opposition-to-reconsider-boycott.html
6. ^ HDZ predstavio izborni program: Bez novih poreza i s olakšicama za ulagače, iPress.hr
7. ^ Sanader mora vratiti 10 milijuna eura
8. ^ KOSOR 'ZAPALILA' HDZ-OVCE U ARENI: 'Ovih dana nas blate kao Tuđmana 90-ih', tportal.hr
9. ^ Pogledajte što je Milanović obećao Hrvatskoj, tportal.hr
10. ^ Iskopana tajna: HDZ s prljavih 13 milijuna kuna financirao Jadranku Kosor, ali i Houdeka, Škoru, Kindl..., Jutarnji list
11. ^ HAŠKA PRESUDA: Gotovina je izgledao mirno, a u njemu je ključalo. Čeljust mu se tresla, Jutarnji list
12. ^ Rastrgali zastavu HDZ-a, zapalili SDP-ovu i EU-a, Novi list
13. ^ Premijerka Kosor pokazala tko su ljudi na koje računa u HDZ-u i vlasti, Jutarnji list
14. ^ Croatian ex-PM Ivo Sanader arrested in Austria, BBC News
15. ^ Sanader u bijegu: Preko granice ga odvezla kći, on čitao novine, Večernji list
16. ^ Wanted: SANADER, Ivo, Interpol
17. ^ Počelo je rušenje HDZ-a: Vlada lijevog centra predstavila Deklaraciju "Savez za promjene", Index.hr
18. ^ Polancec releases statement on meetings with HDZ leaders, tportal.hr
19. ^ Sanader se vraća u Sabor i dobiva zastupnički imunitet, Net.hr
20. ^ Prije izlaska HSLS-a imali 82, a sada imaju 83 ruke u Saboru!, Jutarnji List