Next Australian federal election/Current pendulum

Next Australian federal election/Current pendulum

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2007 federal election and changes since, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 9 National, and 3 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two party preferred basis. [ [http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/website/HouseTppByDivision-13745-NAT.htm Two Party Preferred by Division ] ] The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. [ [http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/RN/2004-05/05rn25.htm Electoral matrix: 2004 federal election ] ]

An asterisk indicates a margin that has not yet been declared and is subject to change.

:"See also: Post-election pendulum":"See also: Next Australian federal election":"See also: State-by-state lower house results and maps"

{| class="toccolours" align="left" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="margin-right: .5em; margin-top: .4em;font-size: 90%;"
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COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" |NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
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style="background-color:white" colspan=4 align="center" |Liberal/National coalition
-
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" |Marginal
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |McEwen (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Fran Bailey
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |50.02
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Bowman (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Andrew Laming
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |50.04
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Swan (WA)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Steve Irons
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |50.11
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Dickson (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Peter Dutton
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |50.13
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Herbert (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Peter Lindsay
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |50.21
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |La Trobe (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Jason Wood
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |50.51
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Macarthur (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Patrick Farmer
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |50.72
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Sturt (SA)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Christopher Pyne
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |50.94
-
align="left" bgcolor="33FF88" |Cowper (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="33FF88" |Luke Hartsuyker
align="left" bgcolor="33FF88" |NP
align="center" bgcolor="33FF88" |51.23
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Stirling (WA)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Michael Keenan
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |51.29
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Paterson (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Bob Baldwin
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |51.51
-
align="left" bgcolor="33FF88" |Hinkler (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="33FF88" |Paul Neville
align="left" bgcolor="33FF88" |NP
align="center" bgcolor="33FF88" |51.69
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Cowan (WA)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Luke Simpkins
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |51.71
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Hughes (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Danna Vale
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |52.16
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Kalgoorlie (WA)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Barry Haase
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |52.58
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Boothby (SA)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Andrew Southcott
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |52.93
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Fairfax (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Alex Somlyay
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |53.01
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Mayo (SA)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Jamie Briggs
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |53.03* v GRN
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align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Fisher (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Peter Slipper
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |53.10
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Ryan (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Michael Johnson
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |53.82
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Wentworth (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Malcolm Turnbull
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |53.85
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Dunkley (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Bruce Billson
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |54.04
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Gilmore (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Joanna Gash
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |54.07
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Hume (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Alby Schultz
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |54.16
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Grey (SA)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Rowan Ramsey
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |54.43
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Greenway (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Louise Markus
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |54.50
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |McMillan (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Russell Broadbent
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |54.79
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Aston (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Chris Pearce
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |55.05
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |North Sydney (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Joe Hockey
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |55.38
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Canning (WA)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Don Randall
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |55.58
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Forrest (WA)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Nola Marino
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |55.83
-
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Casey (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |Tony Smith
align="left" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="A6E7FF" |55.93
-
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" |Fairly safe
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Menzies (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Kevin Andrews
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |56.02
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Goldstein (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Andrew Robb
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |56.05
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Cook (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Scott Morrison
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |56.57
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Higgins (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Peter Costello
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |57.04
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Wannon (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |David Hawker
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |57.47
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Groom (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Ian Macfarlane
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |58.22
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Flinders (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Greg Hunt
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |58.25
-
align="left" bgcolor="33FF66" |Wide Bay (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="33FF66" |Warren Truss
align="left" bgcolor="33FF66" |NP
align="center" bgcolor="33FF66" |58.47
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Tangney (WA)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Dennis Jensen
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |58.68
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |McPherson (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Margaret May
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |58.83
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Berowra (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Philip Ruddock
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |58.94
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Pearce (WA)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Judith Moylan
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |59.07
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Moore (WA)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Mal Washer
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |59.17
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Indi (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Sophie Mirabella
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |59.19
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Barker (SA)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Patrick Secker
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |59.45
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Warringah (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Tony Abbott
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |59.50
-
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Kooyong (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |Petro Georgiou
align="left" bgcolor="50D8F9" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="50D8F9" |59.53
-
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" |Safe
-
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Fadden (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Stuart Robert
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="31C3FF" |60.20
-
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Farrer (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Sussan Ley
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="31C3FF" |61.17
-
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Mitchell (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Alex Hawke
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="31C3FF" |61.59
-
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |Gippsland (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |Darren Chester
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |NP
align="center" bgcolor="33FF33" |61.99
-
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |Calare (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |John Cobb
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |NP
align="center" bgcolor="33FF33" |62.05
-
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Mackellar (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Bronwyn Bishop
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="31C3FF" |62.42
-
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |Parkes (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |Mark Coulton
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |NP
align="center" bgcolor="33FF33" |63.04
-
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Bradfield (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Brendan Nelson
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="31C3FF" |63.45
-
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Curtin (WA)
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Julie Bishop
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="31C3FF" |63.57
-
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Moncrieff (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Steve Ciobo
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="31C3FF" |64.01
-
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |Maranoa (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |Bruce Scott
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |NP
align="center" bgcolor="33FF33" |64.44
-
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |Riverina (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |Kay Hull
align="left" bgcolor="33FF33" |NP
align="center" bgcolor="33FF33" |66.23
-
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |O'Connor (WA)
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Wilson Tuckey
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="31C3FF" |66.55
-
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Murray (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |Sharman Stone
align="left" bgcolor="31C3FF" |LP
align="center" bgcolor="31C3FF" |68.26
-
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" |Very safe
-
align="left" bgcolor="33FF00" |Mallee (Vic)
align="left" bgcolor="33FF00" |John Forrest
align="left" bgcolor="33FF00" |NP
align="center" bgcolor="33FF00" |71.27
-
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="gray" |Independents
-
align="left" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |Kennedy (Qld)
align="left" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |Bob Katter
align="left" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |IND
align="center" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |66.29 v ALP
-
align="left" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |Lyne (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |Rob Oakeshott
align="left" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |IND
align="center" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |73.87* v NP
-
align="left" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |New England (NSW)
align="left" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |Tony Windsor
align="left" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |IND
align="center" bgcolor="EEEEEE" |74.33 v NP


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