Hurricane Marilyn

Infobox Hurricane
Name=Hurricane Marilyn
Type=hurricane
Year=1995
Basin=Atl
Image location=Hurricane Marilyn 16 sept 1995 1811Z.jpg

16 September 1995 at 1811 UTC
Formed=September 12, 1995
Dissipated=September 22, 1995
1-min winds=100
Pressure=949
Da

Inflated=0
Fatalities=13 directcite web
author=NOAA
year=2007
title=Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters
publisher=NOAA
accessdate=2007-02-18
url=http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/papers/200686ams1.2nlfree.pdf]
Areas=Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Barbados, Martinique and Guadeloupe
Hurricane season=1995 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Marilyn was the fifteenth tropical depression and thirteenth named storm of the unusually busy 1995 Atlantic hurricane season, following closely on the heels of Hurricane Luis. Hurricane Marilyn was the most powerful storm to hit the Virgin Islands since Hurricane Hugo of 1989.

Marilyn formed late in the UTC day on September 13, and reached hurricane strength soon thereafter. Marilyn struck the Lesser Antilles on September 14 at Category 1 strength, and intensified to nearly Category 3 strength by the time it reached the U.S. Virgin Islands. A Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight reported hail, which is unusual for tropical cyclones. After heading north past Bermuda, Marilyn weakened and became extratropical on September 22. The remnant circulation wandered the Atlantic Ocean from September 23 - October 1, just south of Nova Scotia. Marilyn peaked at 115 mph (185 km/h), but was predicted to reach 125 mph (205 km/h) (maximum Category 3-status).

Marilyn is directly responsible for thirteen deaths, most due to drowning on boats or offshore. Ten thousand people were left homeless on the island of St. Thomas, and estimated damages were set at $1.5 billion (1995 USD). The same area would be struck by Hurricane Bertha the next year, while still repairing from Marilyn. [http://www.emergency.com/fedbrtha.htm Hurricane Bertha Update] ]

Meteorological history

Marilyn's beginnings originated from a tropical wave that formed off the African coast to the eastern Atlantic Ocean during September 7 and September 8. Large, low-level winds were included in the wave's circulation, but little convection existed.cite web
author=National Hurricane Center
year=1996
title=Hurricane Marilyn Prelimary Report
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-14
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995marilyn.html] The system continued west for a few days at about convert|17|kn|km/h next to an anticyclonic aloft that was also moving westward. On September 12, satellite pictures viewed the disorganized wave and declared it Tropical Depression Fifteen, after convection increased. TD-15 strengthen rapidly, become Tropical Storm Marilyn six hours later and Hurricane Marilyn four hours after that.cite web| author=Richard J. Pasch| year=1995-09-13| title=Tropical Storm Marilyn Discussion 3| publisher=National Hurricane Center | accessdate=2007-02-17| url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/tropdisc/nal1595.003]

For the next few days, Marilyn's track was towards the west-northwest and soon to the northwest, towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Marilyn was a Category 1-hurricane when the center of the storm passed convert|45|nmi|km north of Barbados, then near Martinique. Marilyn passed over Dominica, and just southwest of Guadeloupe on September 14. Marilyn continued moving, making landfall in the U.S. Virgin Islands on September 15, packing winds of convert|110|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on, Category 2-strength. The eyewall, ESE of the center of Marilyn, passed over Saint Thomas. After passing over Puerto Rico, Marilyn found itself back in the Atlantic Ocean on September 16.A low had formed near Marilyn, which may have had enhanced outflow from Marilyn. An eye started appearing in Marilyn and the storm reached a peak intensity of 949 millibars with winds of only 115 mph, a Category 3-major hurricane. At this time, Marilyn was to peak at 120-125 mph winds instead of 115.cite web| author=Lixion A. Avila| year=1995-09-16| title=Hurricane Marilyn Discussion 18| publisher=National Hurricane Center | accessdate=2007-02-18| url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/tropdisc/nal1595.018] cite web| author=Edward N. Rappaport| year=1995-09-16| title=Hurricane Marilyn Discussion 19| publisher=National Hurricane Center | accessdate=2007-02-18| url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/tropdisc/nal1595.019] cite web
author=Lixion A. Avila
year=1995-09-16
title=Hurricane Marilyn Forecast/Advisory 18
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-18
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/marine/mal1595.018] cite web
author=Edward N. Rappaport
year=1995-09-16
title=Hurricane Marilyn Forecast/Advisory 19
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-18
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/marine/mal1595.019] Reconnaissance data found a concentric pair of eyewall wind maxima. Marilyn started weakening rapidly falling from peak-level winds of convert|141|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on down to 102 mph. The central pressure also rose up 20 mbars in 10 hours. The rapid weakening was from shearing, decaying eyewall and upwelled waters from the previous storm, Hurricane Luis. Marilyn sped up towards Bermuda on September 18, passing about convert|150|nmi|km west of the island on September 19. Marilyn encountered more westerly shear and decayed Marilyn, becoming extratropical on September 20. The remnant circulation continued over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean for another 10 days before becoming absorbed in a frontal low.

A Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight reported hail, which is unusual for tropical cyclones.

Preparations

Seventeen watches and/or warnings were issued in association with Marilyn. The first two were a tropical storm watch and a tropical storm warning issued on Barbados, St. Vincent, Grenadines, St. Lucia and Grenada on September 12 at 2200 UTC. Five hours later, a tropical storm watch was issued for Trinidad and Tobago. A tropical storm warning was issued for St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Grenadines, Grenada and Tobago at 900 UTC September 13.cite web
author=Miles B. Lawrence
year=1995-09-13
title=Tropical Storm Marilyn Discussion 4
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/tropdisc/nal1595.004] cite web
author=Miles B. Lawrence
year=1995-09-13
title=Tropical Storm Marilyn Public Advisory 4
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/public/pal1595.004] At 2100 UTC, a Hurricane Warning was issued for Barbados, St. Vincent, Grenadines, St. Lucia and a hurricane watch for Dominica.cite web
author=Miles B. Lawrence
year=1995-09-13
title=Tropical Storm Marilyn Discussion 5
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/tropdisc/nal1595.005] A hurricane watch as released for Martinique on the 14th. The 2100 UTC September 13 was extended for the Grenadines through St. Martin, except Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy and French portion of St. Martin. At 1500 UTC, Puerto Rico was put under a Hurricane Watch.cite web
author=Edward N. Rappaport
year=1995-09-14
title=Hurricane Marilyn Discussion 9
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/tropdisc/nal1595.009] At 1700 UTC, Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and French portion of St. Martin were put under a hurricane watch. Four hours later, Puerto Rico, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Guadeloupe were put under a hurricane warning.

Throughout the night, several watches and warnings were discontinued. At 1500 UTC September 15, Dominican Republic from Cabrera to Cabo Engano were put under a hurricane watch as Marilyn approached. During the night of September 16, all currently active watches and warnings were discontinued. At around the same time, a new Hurricane watch was released for Turks and Caicos and Mayaguana, Acklins, and the Crooked Islands of the southeastern Bahamas.cite web
author=B. Max Mayfield
year=1995-09-17
title=Hurricane Marilyn Forecast/Advisory 20
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-18
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/marine/mal1595.020] cite web
author=Edward N. Rappaport
year=1995-09-17
title=Hurricane Marilyn Forecast/Advisory 21
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-18
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/marine/mal1595.021] cite web
author=Edward N. Rappaport
year=1995-09-16
title=Hurricane Marilyn Discussion 17
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/tropdisc/nal1595.017] This warning was discontinued within 48 hours. At 1500 UTC September 18, Bermuda came under a Tropical Storm Watch, which was upgraded to a warning in six hours. The warning was discontinued on September 19.cite web
author=Richard J. Pasch
year=1995-09-17
title=Hurricane Marilyn Discussion 23
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-18
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/tropdisc/nal1595.023] cite web
author=Edward N. Rappaport
year=1995-09-18
title=Hurricane Marilyn Discussion 25
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-18
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/tropdisc/nal1595.025] cite web
author=Edward N. Rappaport
year=1995-09-18
title=Hurricane Marilyn Discussion 26
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/tropdisc/nal1595.026] cite web
author=Edward N. Rappaport
year=1995-09-18
title=Hurricane Marilyn Discussion 27
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/tropdisc/nal1595.027] cite web
author=B. Max Mayfield
year=1995-09-20
title=Hurricane Marilyn Public Advisory 31A
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/public/paal1595.031]

The 250,000 residents of Barbados spent the night of September 13 in shelters.cite web
author=Syracuse Herald-Journal
year=1995-09-14
title=Hurricane Marilyn sweeps past Barbados
publisher=Syracuse Herald-Journal
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.thehurricanearchive.com/Viewer.aspx?
]

Impact

Marilyn caused tremendous damage and 13 deaths throughout the United States Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfalls from Marilyn off of land were estimated from 4.0 - 7 inches from September 13 and September 14.cite web
author=National Hurricane Center
year=1995-09-13
title=Hurricane Marilyn Rainfalls at 1200 UTC September 13
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/rain/rain1312.gif] cite web
author=National Hurricane Center
year=1995-09-13
title=Hurricane Marilyn Rainfalls at 1800 UTC September 13
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/rain/rain1318.gif] cite web
author=National Hurricane Center
year=1995-09-14
title=Hurricane Marilyn Rainfalls at 1200 UTC September 14
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/rain/rain1412.gif] cite web
author=National Hurricane Center
year=1995-09-14
title=Hurricane Marilyn Rainfalls at 1800 UTC September 14
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/rain/rain1418.gif] cite web
author=Miles B. Lawrence
year=1995-09-13
title=Tropical Storm Marilyn Public Advisory 4A
publisher=National Hurricane Center
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/public/paal1595.004]

Martinique

Rainfalls in Martinique peaked at 9.06 inches in Morne Rouge, 8.94 in Ajoupa Bouillon, 6.40 in Saint Pierre, ranging as low as convert|6.00|in|mm in Ducos. The highest wind gust reported was convert|8|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on in Trinite, the location of the only recorded sustained winds in Martinique, which was 58 mph.

Guadeloupe

Rainfalls over 12-hours in Guadeloupe were convert|20.00|in|mm in Saint-Claude, 19.09 inches in Guillard-Basse-Terre and 17.63 in Gaba. The highest wind gust reported in Guadeloupe was 84 mph in Marie-Galante. The next ones were convert|70|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on in Raizet and convert|61|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on in Desirade. The highest sustained winds reported in Guadeloupe was convert|51|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on in Marie-Galante.

U.S. Virgin Islands

The highest wind speed left by Marilyn after passing over the island of St. Croix was convert|100|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on. The highest rainfalls reported were convert|11.67|in|mm in Annaly, 9.96 inches in Red Hook Bay and 5.25 in Granard. The highest storm surge reported was convert|6.6|ft|m in St. Thomas and convert|6.0|in|mm in St. Croix. According to NOAA, The storm surge in the U.S. Virgin Islands reached 6 to convert|7|ft|m, with an isolated storm tide of convert|11.7|ft|m reported on St. Croix. Rainfall totals reached about 10 inches in St. Croix and St. Thomas.

The highest reported gusts were convert|129|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on in a Noncommissioned Automated Surface Observing System and convert|95|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on gusts in Sailboat Puffin at Green Cay. The highest sustained winds were convert|105|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on in a Noncommissioned Automated Surface Observing System.Marilyn was directly responsible for seven deaths, most due to drowning on boats or offshore. Ten thousand people were left homeless on St. Thomas, and most buildings sustained some damage.

The island of St. Thomas was the hardest hit by the storm, where about 80% of the homes and businesses were destroyed, including the hospital and the water desalination plant; five people were killed. Storm surge in the Charlotte Amalie harbor beached the "USCGC Point Ledge" and damaged many smaller boats.cite web
author=U.S. Coast Guard
year=2007
title=United States Coast Guard Chronology
publisher=U.S. Military
accessdate=2006-05-16
url=http://www.uscg.mil/hq/g-cp/history/Chronology_Sep.html] Elsewhere in the territory, there was severe damage on St. Croix and St. John.

President Bill Clinton declared the U.S. Virgin Islands a Federal Disaster Area, making it available to federal aid.cite web
author=Donna Gherke
year=1995-09-17
title=Marilyn slams St. Thomas;Likely to miss Florida
publisher=The Miami Herald
accessdate=2007-02-17
url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1995/marilyn/news/mh0917p2.gif]

Puerto Rico

The highest rainfalls reported in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Marilyn were convert|5.60|in|mm in Naguabo, 5.50 inches in Luquillo Pico Del Este (Luquillo Pico Of the East), 2.52 at Luis MunozInternational Airport, and 2.45 at Roosevelt Roads Naval Station. The highest gusts reported were convert|125|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on in Culebra, convert|60|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on at Roosevelt Roads Naval Station and convert|50|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on at a non-commissioned Automated Surface Observing System. The highest recorded sustained winds was convert|41|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on at Roosevelt Roads Naval Station. Marilyn passed over the islands of Vieques and Culebra, where it caused much damage.

There were reports of extensive flash flooding across northern and eastern Puerto Rico, and 12,000 people were forced to ride out the storm in shelters. One person was killed in Culebra. President Bill Clinton declared Puerto Rico a Federal Disaster Area, making it available to federal aid.

100 homes on Culebra Island, twenty miles (32 km) east of Puerto Rico, were destroyed by Marilyn. Another two hundred homes on the island were damaged.cite web| author=Jeff Nelson| year=1995-09-18| title=Marilyn| publisher=The Capital| accessdate=2007-02-19| url=http://www.thehurricanearchive.com/Viewer.aspx?
]

Antigua

The highest reported gust in Antigua was convert|50|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on. The Antigua Meteorological Service reported that the island had extensive flooding and damage to banana trees. The other damage reported was from the wind.cite web
author=Miles B. Lawrence, Edward N. Rappaport, B. Max Mayfield, Richard J. Pasch and Lixion A. Avila
year=1996-09-03
title=Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1995
publisher=American Meteorological Society
accessdate=2007-02-19
url=http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/mwr_pdf/1995.pdf]

Other areas

Bermuda reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a highest gust of convert|60|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on. Antigua reported sustained winds of just convert|35|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on, tropical depression-strength. In St. Maarten, sustained winds were 42½ mph and the peak gust was convert|61|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on. Rainfalls in St. Maarten peaked at 3.35 inches in an unknown location. "The New York Times" reported that the British Virgin Islands had little to no damage from Marilyn. The highest gust in Saint-Barthelemy was convert|59|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on and the highest sustained winds of convert|45|mi/h|km/h|abbr=on was reported.

Economic impact

The exact figure for damages in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico is not available, although the American Insurance Services Group set the combined damage at $875 million USD. However, FEMA estimated the damage cost as $1 billion USD while an economic research group in the U.S. Virgin Islands estimated the damage to be at $3 billion USD. As of 1995, the estimated damages to the U.S. islands were set at $1.5 billion (1995 USD).

The economic impact to the islands was severe, particularly to St. Thomas and St. John, which are heavily dependent on tourism.

Aside from high winds and seas, one possible explanation for the storm's heavy damage may have been complacency on the part of local island populations. Marilyn followed on the heals of Luis, a more powerful Category 4 hurricane initially predicted to pass very close to St. Thomas. This prediction prompted locals to be particularly thorough in their pre-storm preparations; however, the hurricane passed further away from the island and caused relatively moderate damage. This may have caused islanders to prematurely relax, as Marilyn was a much smaller hurricane in appearance than Luis.

Aftermath

Puerto Rico

Relief supplies in the wake of Hurricane Marilyn were sent to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Officials of the Federal Emergency Management Agency set up camps on the islands to give out food, water and shelter supplies. [http://www.cnn.com/US/Newsbriefs/9509/9-21/am/index.html?eref=sitesearch Relief effort not yet helping hurricane victims] ]

U.S. Virgin Islands

80% of the homes on St. Thomas were destroyed or damaged, 1/2 being uninhabitable. Also, 20-30% of businesses were destroyed. Five supply distribution sites were being operated by the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency (VIETMA). More than 2,100 federal agency personnel had been deployed to help out with the cleanup from Hurricane Marilyn. Four contracts were quickly accepted for immediate building repairs. Diving teams were sent to check for harbor damage and Navy Seabees started working on repairing public buildings. Military and security forces included about 500 Army, Air Force, and Navy personnel, 500 National Guardsmen, and 500 federal law enforcement personnel. The airport in St. Thomas was open for flight using a mobile control tower. The St. Thomas hospital was open, but was running on generators. [http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/research/qr/qr82.html Early Relief Efforts] ]

The first FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers opened on 23 September on St. Thomas. A reported indicated that by 11 October, 1500 loans were granted for home repair, mostly for under $2500. Over 19,000 disaster housing applications were filed with over 2800 being accepted. About 5000 of 15,000 assigned inspections were completed. Over 7800 applications for Individual and Family Grants had been received and, of the 4,000 SBA loan applications filed, 43 had been approved for a total of $744,100 - an average loan of $17,300.

In all, Marilyn caused $1.5 billion (1995 USD) in damage, killing 13 people in its path.

Retirement

The name Marilyn was retired in the spring of 1996 and will never again be used for an Atlantic hurricane. It was replaced with the name Michelle, which was itself retired after its usage in 2001, which was replaced by the name Melissa in 2007.

See also

* List of Atlantic hurricanes

References

External links

* [http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/marilyn1995/ NOAA storm data on Hurricane Marilyn]
* [http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/marilyn1995.html HPC page on Hurricane Marilyn]
* [http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/marilyn.pdf NWS Service Assessment]
* [http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1995/MARILYN/track.gifMarilyn path by UNISYS]