Transportation safety in the United States

Transportation safety has steadily improved in the United States for many decades. Between 1920 and 2000, the rate of fatal automobile accidents per vehicle-mile decreased by a factor of about 17. [cite web | title=Fatality Analysis Reporting System | publisher=U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration | url=http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/ ] [cite web | title=Making Sense of Highway Data | publisher=U.S. National Motorists Association | url=http://www.motorists.com/issues/speed/Making_Sense.html ] Except for a pause during the 1960s, progress in reducing fatal accidents has been steady. Safety for other types of U.S. passenger transportation has also improved substantially, but long-term statistical data are not as readily available.

Information here: http://www.volpe.dot.gov/infosrc/journal/2005/pdfs/vj05intro.pdfdoes not agree with the above chart. The chart of accident fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles in this government source shows that rates dropped steeply until 1990 and have been basically flat since then.

While the number of accidents increased in the last year, the population of the United States has also continued to increase.vague

Following an approach used by several writers, [cite journal | author=Arnold Barnett | title=It's Safer to Fly | journal=Risk Analysis | year=1991 | volume=11 | issue=1 | pages=13 ] [cite web | author=Peter B. Ladkin | year=1997 | title=To Drive or To Fly | publisher=University of Bielefeld | url=http://www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de/publications/Reports/probability.html ] one can compare the likelihood of a fatal accident while driving and while flying with a scheduled airline. This is most meaningful for trips in which either mode of transportation is a reasonable alternative. For the U.S., a typical trip of this sort is from the Boston, MA, area to the Washington, DC, area, about 6 hours door-to-door by air travel and 7 hours door-to-door by automobile. To compare typical risks, one can use the U.S. average fatal automobile accident rate of 1.5 per 100 million vehicle-miles for 2000 [See reference [1] ] and the U.S. average fatal scheduled airline accident rate of 0.18 per million flight segments for 1995-2005: [cite web | author=U.S. National Transportation Safety Board | title=Accidents, Fatalities, and Rates, 1986 through 2005, for U.S. Air Carriers Operating Under Scheduled Service | year=2005 | url=http://www.ntsb.gov/aviation/Table6.htm ]

Risk estimation By air By auto Flight segments 1 0 Risk (millionths) 0.2 0 Miles driven 40 450 Risk (millionths) 0.6 6.8 Total risk (millionths) 0.8 6.8

The likelihood of a fatal accident, estimated for this trip in this way, is about eight times greater when driving than when flying. As shown in this case, the largest part of the risk of flying is often the risk incurred driving to and from airports.

ee also

*Car accident
*Road safety
*Air safety
*Risk analysis

References and notes