- Safety in numbers
Safety in numbers is the hypothesis that, by being part of a large physical group or mass, an individual is proportionally less likely to be the victim of a mishap,
accident , or other bad event.Description
Evidence often advanced for this position includes the flocking of
bird s and shoaling offish . In both of these instances, by being part of a large group, individuals face lessrisk of falling victim topredator s than they would if traveling alone.In road traffic safety
Safety in numbers is also used to describe the theory that a particular road user, especially a
pedestrian orcyclist , becomes less likely to be involved in a crash, as the population of similar road users increases. A Public Health Consultant has concluded that the theory is correct, based onstatistical analysis of collision data. [cite journal |quotes=no | author =Jacobsen, P. L. | year =2003 | title = Safety in numbers: more walkers and bicyclists, safer walking and bicycling
journal =Injury Prevention | volume =9 | issue =3 | pages =205–209
url =http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/9/3/205 |doi=10.1136/ip.9.3.205 | pmid = 12966006] A Cycling Transportation Engineer has disputed that conclusion, writing that the data used is insufficient to demonstrate that there is a cause-and-effect relationship. [cite web | last =Forester | first =John |quotes=no | url =http://www.johnforester.com/Articles/Social/Numbers%20vs%20Safety.htm
title =Does Increasing the Number of Cyclists Reduce the Accident Rate?
format =html | work =Review of Safety in Numbers | accessyear =2006 ]Case studies
After cycling was promoted in Finland, the number of trips increased by 72% and there was a 75% drop in cyclists deaths.Fact|date=January 2008 [cite web
url =http://www.norden.org/pub/sk/showpub.asp?pubnr=2005:556
author =Saari R.
title = Cycling policy in Finland and relevance of CBA for the policy. In: CBA of Cycling. Copenhagen, Nordic Council of Ministers, 556
accessyear=2007 | year =2005]In the United Kingdom,
Transport for London , the body responsible for theLondon Congestion Charge , stated in their April 2005 review of that scheme, that motor vehicle traffic had decreased by 16%, bicycle use had increased by 28% and cyclist injuries had decreased by 20% in the first year of operation of the scheme. [cite web | url =http://www.tfl.gov.uk/assets/downloads/corporate/ThirdAnnualReportFinal.pdf | author =Transport for London | title =Congestion Charging: Third Annual Monitoring Report. |accessyear=2007 | month =April | year =2005|format=PDF] In January 2008, a London newspaper reported that the number of cyclists in London, being treated in hospitals for serious injuries, had increased by 100% in six years. Over the same time, they report, the number of cyclists had increased by 84%. [cite news
title=Number of cyclists treated for serious injuries doubles
author=Nicholas Cecil
date=2008-01-28
publisher=Evening Standard
url=http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23434443-details/Number+of+cyclists+treated+for+serious+injuries+doubles/article.do
accessdate=2008-01-30]While such data shows a degree of correlation, conclusions of
causality may very well be based on a statisticallyspurious relationship . In other words, the relationship of an increase in bicycle use and a decrease in cyclist injuries may have no actualcausal connection due to a certain third, unseen factor (referred to in statistics as a "confounding factor" or "lurking variable"). A spurious relationship gives an impression of a worthy link between two groups that is invalid when objectively examined. [cite web
url =http://www.burns.com/wcbspurcorl.htm
author =Burns, William C.
title = Spurious Correlations
accessyear=2008 | year =1997]ee also
*
Critical Mass
*Predator satiation References
Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.