Deliberative opinion poll

The deliberative opinion poll is a form of opinion poll that incorporates the principles of deliberative democracy and sortition. The concept was described by James S. Fishkin in his 1991 book "Democracy and Deliberation". Dr. Fishkin's method, has been copyrighted^{[citation needed]} as "The Deliberative Poll".

Deliberative polling combines random sampling of public opinion on a specific issue with small-group discussions. Rather than simply determining existing public opinion, a deliberative poll aims to understand what public opinion would be if the public were well-informed and had carefully discussed a particular issue. Citizens are invited by modern random sampling techniques to participate, so that a large enough sampling group will provide a relatively accurate representation of public opinion.^[1]

Process

The Center for Deliberative Democracy at Stanford University describes its process as follows:

"A random, representative sample is first polled on the targeted issues. After this baseline poll, members of the sample are invited to gather at a single place for a weekend in order to discuss the issues. Carefully balanced briefing materials are sent to the participants and are also made publicly available. The participants engage in dialogue with competing experts and political leaders based on questions they develop in small group discussions with trained moderators. Parts of the weekend events are broadcast on television, either live or in taped and edited form. After the deliberations, the sample is again asked the original questions. The resulting changes in opinion represent the conclusions the public would reach, if people had opportunity to become more informed and more engaged by the issues."^[2]

Applications

PBS has worked with Fishkin via the By the People Program on several deliberative opinion polls, including in 2004 when it sponsored several regional deliberative polls around topics related to the 2004 national elections. In June 2011 PBS joined him in hosting What's Next California poll, with the results intend to inform a future California ballot initiative.

A group at Carnegie Mellon University has been working on the creation of tools for online deliberative polls. Their first tool is an Adobe Connect-based discussion tool called PICOLA.

Fishkin and Yale Law Professor Bruce Ackerman have proposed a national holiday called Deliberation Day to allow voters to gather in large and small groups to discuss political issues.

Recently, PASOK held a deliberative poll to elect the party's candidate for the municipality of Amaroussion.

Issues Deliberation Australia/America, a political psychology think-tank, has worked with the Australian government to use deliberative polling for several important local and national issues, including the referendum on becoming a republic in 1999.

Deliberative polls have been held in China for over five years. The coastal township of Zeguo in Wenling city^[3] has a population of 120,000. Fishkin's team selects 175 people who are representative of the general population. Deliberative polling takes place over a 3-day period, and the local government utilizes the priorities of the group. The experiment worked so well that the topic expanded from a single issue the first year (prioritizing public works projects) to the entire budget, and the Chinese are considering the process in other municipalities.^[1]

Between 1996 and 2007, Fishkin managed deliberative opinion polls for a syndicate of Texas utilities. The group's recommendations shifted their focus toward wind power, and the vast majority of customers agreed that it was worth the higher cost.^[1]

Effectiveness

In a September 2010 Time magazine article, Joe Klein questioned whether regular citizens were capable of making sound decisions on complex and technical issues. Fishkin responded:

"The public is very smart if you give it a chance. If people think their voice actually matters, they'll do the hard work, really study their briefing books, ask the experts smart questions and then make tough decisions. When they hear the experts disagreeing, they're forced to think for themselves. About 70% change their minds in the process."^[1]

Hawaii Televote as precedent

The Hawaii Televote was a form of polling that did not incorporate moderated face-to-face sessions among the citizens selected. It was invented^{[citation needed]} by Ted Becker and Christa Daryl Slaton at the University of Hawaii in 1978.^[4] It was incorporated into the Hawaii State Constitutional Convention in 1978.^{[citation needed]} The first two issues were whether to adopt citizens initiatives into the Hawaii Constitution and the second was whether to select Hawaii judges by election, not gubernatorial appointment.^{[citation needed]}

The Hawaii Televote method was the first university-based model of deliberative polling in the world^{[citation needed]} and succeeded in attracting highly representative samples of the public to participate.^{[citation needed]} There were 12 Hawaii Televotes conducted from 1978-85. Ten were in Hawaii, one in New Zealand (1981) and one sponsored by SCAG (The Southern California Association of Governments) in 1983, prior to the Los Angeles Summer Olympic Games in 1984. The complex method and extensive results have been reported in two books.^[5][6]

See also

• Deliberation
• Deliberative assembly
• Deliberative democracy
• Online deliberation
• Opinion poll
• Public sphere
• Voting system
• Urtak

Additional reading

Becker, Ted. "Teledemocracy," The Futurist, December 1981

Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0300051611, Yale University Press, 1991

Slaton Christa.: Televote. New York: Praeger 1992

Becker, Ted and Christa Daryl Slaton. The Future of Teledemocracy. Westport, CT: Praeger, 2000

References

1. ^ ^{a b c d} Klein, Joe: "Tough Issues" Time magazine, page 29, September 13, 2010
2. ^ "Deliberative Polling®: Toward a Better-Informed Democracy" Stanford University, Center for Deliberative Democracy
3. ^ Leonard, Mark: "China's new Inteligentsia", Prospect Magazine, Issue 144, 2008
4. ^ Ted Becker (December 1981). "Teledemocracy: Bringing power back to the people". The Futurist. 
5. ^ Christa Slaton (1992). Televote. New York: Praeger. ISBN 0275938360. 
6. ^ Ted Becker; Christa Slaton (2000). The Future of Teledemocracy. Westport, CT: Praeger. ISBN 0275970906. 

External links

• Center for Deliberative Democracy, Stanford University
• By the People Program, Public Broadcasting System
• Tomorrow's Europe, the first Europe wide deliberative Poll