Nils-Axel Mörner

Nils-Axel Mörner, born 1938, is the former head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University. He retired in 2005.^[1] He was president of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) Commission on Neotectonics (1981–1989). He headed the INTAS (International Association for the promotion of cooperation with scientists from the New Independent States of the former Soviet Union) Project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1997–2003). He is a critic of the IPCC and the notion that the global sea level is rising. He's also been the Chairman of INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution. He also led the Maldives Sea Level Project. He is also known for his support for dowsing.^[2][3]

Publications

Mörner has published books and papers on the interaction among isostasy and eustasy, the oscillating regional eustatic curve of NW Europe, the changing geoid concept, the redefinition of the concept of eustasy, the dynamic-rotational redistribution of oceanic water masses, and the interchange of angular momentum between the hydrosphere and solid Earth. His publications span over thirty years. His most cited paper has been cited about 30 times in early 2008. At that time his Hirsch index, as ascertained with Google Scholar, was 9, meaning that nine of his papers which are in the Google Scholar system had been cited 9 or more times by other papers in Google Scholar.

Views on sea level change

Mörner disagrees with the view of future rise in sea level caused by "Global Warming". A recent booklet The Greatest Lie Ever Told, published by Mörner, refers to observational records of sea levels for the past 300 years that show variations - ups and downs, but no significant trend.^[4] This contrasts with the usual view that sea level rise has been occurring at 2–3 mm/yr over the last century.^[5] Mörner asserts that satellite altimetry data indicate a mean rise in the order of 1.0 mm/yr from 1986 to 1996,^[6] whereas most studies find a value around 3 mm/yr.

Mörner argues that sea level rise will not exceed 200 mm, within a range of either +100±100 mm or +50±150 mm based on satellite data over the last 40 years and observational records over the last 300 years.^[7]

In 2004 the president of INQUA wrote that INQUA did not subscribe to Mörner's views on climate change.^[8]

In 2000 he launched an international sea level research project in the Maldives which claims to demonstrate an absence of signs of any on-going sea level rise. Despite President Gayoom speaking in the past about the impending dangers to his country,^[9] the Maldives, Mörner concluded that the people of the Maldives have in the past survived a higher sea level about 50–60 cm and there is evidence of a significant sea level fall in the last 30 years in that Indian Ocean area.^[10][11] However, these conclusions were not supported by follow-up studies.^[12]

Mörner's claim that sea levels are not rising has been criticised for ignoring correctly calibrated satellite altimeter records, all of which show that sea levels are rising.^[13]

Views on dowsing

Mörner has written a number of works claiming to provide theoretical support for dowsing. [1] He was elected "Deceiver of the year" by Föreningen Vetenskap och Folkbildning in 1995 for "organizing university courses about dowsing...".^[2] In 1997 James Randi asked him to claim The One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge, making a controlled experiment to prove that dowsing works.^[14] Mörner declined the offer.^[15]

Critique of IPCC results

Nils-Axel Mörner has been critical of the IPCC Third Assessment Report sea level chapter.^[16] and president of the INQUA (International Union for Quaternary Research) Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999–2003).^[17]

"The late 20th century sea level rise rate lacks any sign of acceleration. Satellite altimetry indicates virtually no changes in the last decade. Therefore, observationally based predictions of future sea level in the year 2100 will give a value of +10±10 cm (or +5±15 cm), by this discarding model outputs by IPCC as well as global loading models. This implies that there is no fear of any massive future flooding as claimed in most global warming scenarios."^[7]

Mörner, at the time president of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, wrote about the IPCC TAR in 2000.

• "0.09 to 0.88 metres between 1990 and 2100” – from SRES scenarios. These values are completely misleading and false. Our INQUA Commission on “Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution” (which hosts the leading world experts on just the topic) has a totally different view (expressed in my previous reviews). The expert/observational-based figure is 10 cm ±10 cm." However, INQUA has since then published a statement on climate change that endorses the IPCC's assessment, explicitly quoting the IPCC's estimate of a global mean sea level rise "between 0.2 and 0.6 meters between 1990 and 2100". [2]
• "It has been popular to threaten “small islands and low-lying coasts” with scenarios of disastrous future flooding. The Maldives has been the most utilised target. We have undertaken a careful analysis of actual sea level changes in the Maldives. No rise has been recorded either in the present or the past centuries. Instead we have documented a significant sea level fall in the last 20–30 years. Take this as Reality contra Models."
• "All handling by IPCC of the Sea Level questions have been done in a way that cannot be accepted and that certainly not concur with modern knowledge of the mode and mechanism of sea level changes."
• On TAR Chapter 11:
  • "Chapter 11 on "Sea Level Changes" was written by 33 persons; none of which represents actual sea level research. I have now finished a 7 pages review report. It is a most shocking reading; lots of modeler wishes but very little hard facts based on real observational data by true sea level specialists. It seems that the authors involved in this chapter were chosen not because of their deep knowledge in the subject, but rather because they should say what the climate model had predicted. This chapter has a low and unacceptable standard. It should be completely rewritten by a totally new group of authors chosen among the group of true sea level specialists." [3]

See also

• Sea level rise

References

1. ^ http://nonuclear.se/waste2007morner
2. ^ ^{a b} "Årets förvillare 1995(vof.se)". http://www.vof.se/visa-forvillare1995. Retrieved 2009-04-01. "Till Årets förvillare 1995 utsågs docent Nils-Axel Mörner vid Stockholms universitet. Han har anordnat universitetskurser om slagrutor där studenterna pådyvlas sedan länge motbevisade myter i stället för att få stifta bekantskap med den moderna vetenskapliga kunskapen inom området. Han har därigenom sett till att man inte ens vid universitetet går fri från grova förvanskningar av vetenskaplig metodik." 
3. ^ Manne, Rolf (2007). Klockan som slagruta. Folkvett. http://www.vof.se/folkvett/19973-4klockan-som-slagruta. 
4. ^ http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC0708/S00012.htm New Zealanders being misled by unfounded claims about sea level rises in Scoop Independent News, Sci-tech Monday, 6 August 2007
5. ^ "Sea Level Changes in the Past, Present and in the Near-Future Global Aspects Observations versus Models" (PDF). IGCP Project No. 437 Puglia 2003 - Final Conference. February 10, 2005. http://www.dsm.unile.it:8002/AbstractBook/Morner5_10.pdf. 
6. ^ "The expected sea level changes in the next century.". Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, Research Topics (RT) 5; Mörner (2000). February 9, 2005. Archived from the original on January 29, 2003. http://web.archive.org/web/20030129072703/http://www.pog.su.se/sea/07_research_topics/rt5.htm. 
7. ^ ^{a b} Mörner, Nils-Axel (2004). "Estimating future sea level changes from past records". Global and Planetary Change 40 (1–2): 49–54. doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00097-3. 
8. ^ Clague, John J. (Letter written to Yuri Osipov, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences) July 21, 2004, Retrieved February 28, 2008
9. ^ Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (2006-01-06). "Address by his Excellency Mr. Maumoon Abdul Gahoom, President of the Republic of Maldives, at the nineteenth special session of the United Nations General Assembly for the purpose of an overall review and appraisal of the implementation of agenda 21–24 June 1997". http://www.un.int/maldives/ungass.htm. 
10. ^ Mörner, Nils-Axel; Tooley, Michael; Possnert, Göran (2004). "New perspectives for the future of the Maldives". Global and Planetary Change 40 (1–2): 177–182. doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00108-5. 
11. ^ Mörner N.-A.; Laborel J., Tooley M., Dawson S., Allison W., Islam M.S., Laborel F., Collina J., Rufin C. (February 10, 2005). "Sea Level Changes: The Maldives Project Freed From Condemnation to become Flooded" (PDF). IGCP Project No. 437 Puglia 2003 - Final Conference. http://www.dsm.unile.it:8002/AbstractBook/Morner175_176.pdf. 
12. ^ Woodworth, P.L. (2005). "Have there been large recent sea level changes in the Maldive Islands?". Global and Planetary Change 49 (1–2): 1–18. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2005.04.001. 
13. ^ Nerem et al. (2007) Comment on “Estimating future sea level change from past records” by Nils-Axel Mörner, Global and Planetary Change 55 (2007) 358–360
14. ^ http://www.randi.org/hotline/1998/0012.html
15. ^ http://www.vof.se/folkvett/pdf/1997-2-s12.pdf
16. ^ "About INQUA". International Union for Quaternary Research. http://www.inqua.tcd.ie/about.html. Retrieved 2008-11-10. 
17. ^ INQUA commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (2004-07-25). "IPCC again" (PDF). Archived from the original on 2004-07-25. http://web.archive.org/web/20040725130615/http://www.pog.su.se/sea/HP-14.+IPCC-3.pdf. 

External links

• Interview: Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner - Claim That Sea Level Is Rising Is a Total Fraud
• Interview: Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner - Sea-level Expert: It's Not Rising!
• James Randi: End-of-month-notes, March 1998 - Looking in on Sweden (Nils-Axel Morner)
• Vetenskap och Folkbildning articles on Mörner
• Sea Level Research
• The Maldives Project

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Name	Morner, Nils-Axel
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Date of birth	1938
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