Soviet Census (1937)

The Soviet Census held on January 6 1937 was the most controversial of the censuses taken within the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The census results were destroyed and its organizers were sent to the Gulag as saboteurs because the census showed much lower population figures than anticipated. [http://demoscope.ru/weekly/knigi/polka/gold_fund08.html A. G. Volkov "Census of 1937 Facts and Fictions"] originally published in Перепись населения СССР 1937 года. История и материалы/Экспресс-информация. Серия "История статистики". Выпуск 3-5 (часть II). М., 1990/ с. 6-63]

Delays

After the First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union of 1926 the next census was planned to be held in 1933 [http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2007/0271/arxiv01.php Ye. M. Andreyev, L. Ye. Darsky, and T. L. Kharkova "On the trails of the deleted census"] Originally published in Население Советского Союза. 1922-1991. М.: Наука. 1993. с. 23-29. ] . On March 15 1932 the formal commission on census organization, chaired by V. V. Osinsky was created by the Statistical Commission (Tsentral'noye Upravleniye Narodno-Khozyaystvennogo Uchyota, TsUNKhU) of Gosplan. On 22 April 1932 Sovnarkom adopted the decision "On Conducting the all-Union Census in December 1933". On 15 April 1933 Sovnarkom moved the date for the census to the beginning of 1935. On 23 June 1934 Sovnarkom further delayed the census to January 1936. On 15 June 1935 the census date was moved to December 1936. Finally the census was conducted on January 6 1937

The multiple delays were most probably explained by the reluctance to show the catastrophical demographic results of collectivization and the Famine of 1932-1934, including the Holodomor . Officially, the Soviet leadership fanned great expectations of the population growth.

High expectations

On 26 January 1934 Joseph Stalin reported to the 17th Congress of the All-Union Communist Party (b) as one of the main achievements "Growth of population from 160.5 millions in the end of 1930 to the 168 millions in the end of 1933" [Сталин И.В.Вопросы ленинизма.Изд.10-е.М.: 1938. С.572. ] .On 1 December 1935 Joseph Stalin made a speech, on the "Meeting of Kolkhozniks with the Soviet and Party leaders" [Совещание передовых комбайнёров и комбайнёрок СССР с членами ЦК ВКП(б) и правительства 1 декабря 1935 года. М.,1935.С.118. ] :Cquote|Everybody says that the material situation of workers has dramatically improved, that life has become better and more fun. It is of course true. But this has led the population to breed much faster than in the old days. The birth rate is higher, the death rate is lower and the pure population growth is far stronger. It is of course good and we welcome it. [Jolly murmurs in the auditorium.] Now every year we have a population growth of three million souls. It means that every year we grow as much as the whole of Finland. [Everybody laughs.] Combining his reports, one could have expected to have a population of about 180 million in 1937.

Professional statistics based on the registered birth and death rates expected the data to show a population of 170-172 million, but these data considered to be diminished. On 21 September 1935 Sovnarkom adopted a decision "On the quality of registration of natural population changes" (О постановке учета естественного движения населения) most probably authored by Stalin: Cquote|The organs of registration were often used by the class enemies who had sneaked in there (priests, kulaks, whites) and made their own counterrevolutionary saboteurs work to deliberately hide population growth by registering the same deaths multiple times.

In fact, as discussed by A. G. Volkov, the idea that a significant number of people received multiple death certificates for the same person is absurd. On the other hand, not registering deaths, especially those who died during the 1930s famines and prison inmates, was common. For example, during the Holodomor, starving peasants tried (despite the official ban) to escape to the cities where they could earn or beg for food. Many of them died in the streets. In 1933, the street-cleaning service of Kiev picked up 9472 dead bodies. Only 3991 of them were officially registered while 5481 were disposed of without formal registration according to the instructions of the prosecutor's office.

Preparation

The official commission for the preparation of the census was formed on 16 September 1935. It included:
*Vyacheslav Molotov, the Chairman of Sovnarkom
*Lazar Kaganovich, Narkom for transport
*Anastas Mikoyan, Narkom for the food industry
*N.K. Antipov, Vice Chairman of Sovnarkom;
*Nikolai Bulganin, Chairman of Mossovet
*Emmanuil Kviring, Vice Chairman of Gosplan
*I.A. Kraval, the chief of TsUNKhUand
*A.S. Popov, deputy to the chief of TsUNKhULater the commission was joined by
*Valery Mezhlauk, the Chairman of Gosplan, who chaired the commissionAll the documents related to the census were prepared by TsUNKhU and edited personally by Joseph Stalin. A.G. Volkov speculates that never in modern history was such a routine technical matter as a census so micromanaged by such high officials.

A comparison between the two variants is shown in the table below:
8
Грамотен ли? Are you literate?
-
Rowspan=2|12
Rowspan=2|Где учится? Название учебного заведения, курсов и т.д. с обозначением курса или группы, в которой состоит. Для детей, помещенных в яс­ли, посещающих детсады, отметить: "ясли", "очаг", "детсад" и т.д. Where do you study? Name of school, courses, etc For the children going to a nursery, kindergarten, etc. state "kindergarten", "nursery", etc.
9
В какой школе учится – в начальной, средней или высшей? In what school do you study - primary, secondary or tertiary?
-
10
В каком классе или на каком курсе учится? What grade are you in?
-
13
Где обучался? Название высшего по типу учебного заведения (окончившие пишут впереди "оконч.", не окончившие обозначают группу, курс, класс, из которого вышли) Where have you studied? Name of the highest school (those graduated state grad., those who have not graduated state the grade or class they dropped)
11
Окончил ли среднюю или высшую школу? Have you graduated from secondary or tertiary school?
-
Rowspan=3|14
Rowspan=3
While his Soviet contemporaries praised Stalin's clarity and brevity in the design of these forms, modern scholars have observed a significant dumbing-down of the original proposals. A lot of information, e.g. about the social structures and income, migration, etc. could not be deduced from the new forms. Some questions (like the social category) were extremely vague and allowed different interpretations. Volkov argues it was done deliberately. Stalin removed the double accounting (of those present at the time of census and of those permanently living at an address), thus significantly reducing the accuracy of the calculations. It was coupled with a very maladroit time for the census: the night of January 5-6 – that is, the eve of Russian Orthodox Christmas, when people are extremely mobile and significant errors in counting are possible.

The main new question introduced by Stalin was the question about religion. According to Volkov, Stalin expected the great majority of people to self-identify as atheists.

Census

The census was held on January 6 1937; in addition to the general census in the cities, towns and villages, a special census was held by the NKVD in the Gulag camps and among the border guards; by the Red Army, which took a census of military personnel; and the railroad, which took a census of passengers. When the telegraph data was first processed, it soon became obvious that the final enumeration would be no more than 162 million people. The worst disagreement between the expected and the obtained data were in the Kazakhstan, Ukraine, North Caucasus and Volga regions, the areas that were the strongest hit by the Soviet famine of 1932-1934. Also, despite the expected number of living prisoners of the Gulag to be 4 million, only 2.6 million were accounted for.

On January 11 the chief of TsUNKhU Kraval sent telegrams requesting a total recount of a whole settlement if any doubt arose that somebody might be missing there. Still, despite the total recount in 25,000 settlements, only 4887 missing persons were found. The preliminary result of the census, reported to the Stalin in mid of March 1937, was 162,039,470 people, much lower than the "criminally decreased" registered numbers of 170-172 million or Stalin's expectations of 180 million people.

Another serious blow was a very high percentage of people stated that they were religious. 55.3 million or 56.7% of those who provided answers stated they were religious (the question was asked only of people older than 16 years old), 42.2 million stated they were atheists and around 1 million refused to give an answer. Historian V.B. Zhiromskaya stated that people expected to be persecuted if they declared themselves as belonging to a religion but considered the answer to be important: "If many people would say they are religious, the authorities would have to open the churches", was a common attitude [http://www.krotov.info/history/20/1930/1937_zher.htm V.B. Zhiromskaya "On the religiosity of people in 1937 (using the census data)"] "Исторический вестник", №5 (1, 2000)ru icon ] . The Soviet authorities were so upset by the results of the census that they did not include a question on religion in any future censuses until the period of Perestroika, in 1987.

Aftermath

In March 1937 the four main statistical professionals working on the Census in TsUNKhU – the chief of the "Sector for Population", Mikhail Kurman; chief of the "Census Bureau", Olimpy Kvitkin; his deputy, Lazar Brand; and the chief of the "Sector for transportation and communication", Ivan Oblomov, were arrested and imprisoned. Soon they were joined by the Chief of TsUNKhU, Ivan Kraval, and the chiefs of the most of the regional statistical centers. Many statisticians, newly-appointed in place of those arrested, were soon arrested themselves. There is evidence that many managers appointed to lead the statistical organization tried to avoid starting their new jobs in a desperate attempts to escape persecution.

On 25 September 1937 there was a special Sovnarkom decision proclaiming the census invalid and setting one for January 1939. A "Pravda" editorial stated that the "enemies of the people gave the census counters invalid instructions that led to the gross under-counting of the population, but the brave NKVD under the leadership of Nikolai Yezhov destroyed the snake's nest in the statistical bodies". ["All-Union population Census", Pravda 27 July 1938.]

Stalin had to agree with the lower numbers of population growth. In his report to the 18th Congress of the All-Union Communist Party (b) he said [Сталин И.В. Отчетный доклад на XVIII съезде партии о работе ЦК ВКП(б) 10 марта 1939 г. М.: 1939. С.24. ] : cquote|Some workers of the old Gosplan thought that during the second pyatiletka (1933-1938) the annual growth of population was three to four million people. It was a fantasy or worse.

The new Soviet Census (1939) was organized in such a way as to have certainly inflated data on population numbers. It showed a population figure of 170.6 million people, manipulated so as to match exactly the numbers stated by Stalin in his report to the 18th Congress of the All-Union Communist Party. No other censuses were conducted until 1959.

Importance of the census data

Today there is a consensus that the results of the 1939 census were adjusted (0.5 to 1.5 million persons were added to the reported population). Since the 1930's registration data was likely also adjusted, some historians consider the 1937 census the only more or less reliable source of demographic data for the period 1926-1959. However, demographers do not consider it as such. The data became influential for evaluating the number of victims of the Great Purge, World War I, and the 1930's famines, including the Holodomor, in historians' but not demographers' hands. [S. G. Wheatcroft 'More Light on the Scale of Repression and Excess Mortality in the Soviet Union in the 1930s" "Soviet Studies" Vol. 42, No. 2 (Apr., 1990), pp. 355-367 ] [" [http://www.polit.ru/research/2006/01/16/demography.html Demographic catastrophes of the 20th century] ", a chapter from "Demographic Modernization in Russia 1900–2000", ed. A. G. Vishnevsky, 2006 (ISBN 5-98379-042-0)] Stanislav Kulchytsky, "How many of us perished in Holodomor in 1933", Zerkalo Nedeli, November 23-29, 2002. Available online [http://www.zerkalo-nedeli.com/nn/show/420/36833/ in Russian] and [http://www.zn.kiev.ua/ie/show/420/36833/ in Ukrainian] ] [Tsaplin V.V "Statistics of stalinism victims in 30-ies", "Voprosy Istoruu", 1989, N 4. pp.177—178.] [Catherine Merridale, "The 1937 Census and the Limits of Stalinist Rule ", "The Historical Journal", Vol. 39, No. 1 (Mar., 1996), pp. 225-240]

References