William M. Gray

William M. "Bill" Gray (born 1929) is a pioneer in the science of forecasting hurricanes.cite book | title=Storm World | last=Mooney | first=Chris | author-link=Chris Mooney | publisher=Harcourt | origyear=2007 | isbn=978-0-15-101287 | pages=70 | chapter=Chapter 4: Lay that Matrix Down | quote="...1984...Gray also launched the endeavor that would make him most famous: a seasonal forecasting scheme for the Atlantic basin, which would predict the number of hurricanes and tropical storms months before their actual arrival. ... It's hard to overstate the breakthrough that Gray had achieved with his forecasting scheme.] In 1952 he received a B.S. degree in geography from George Washington University, and in 1959 a M.S. in meteorology from the University of Chicago, where he went on to earn a Ph.D. in geophysical sciences in 1964.

Gray pioneered the concept of "seasonal" hurricane forecasting—predicting months in advance the severity of the coming hurricane season. Gray's prognostications have been issued since 1984.

Gray is Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU), and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. Gray is noted for his forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity.

Gray served as a weather forecaster for the United States Air Force, and as a research assistant in the University of Chicago Department of Meteorology. He joined Colorado State University in 1961. He has been advisor of over 70 Ph.D. and M.S. students. His team has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984.

After the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, Gray announced that he was stepping back from the primary authorship of CSU's tropical cyclone probability forecasts, passing the role to Philip J. Klotzbach. Gray indicated that he would be devoting more time to the issue of global warming. He is a controversial figure in the global warming debate, as he does not subscribe to anthropogenic causes for global warming.

easonal hurricane forecasts

Gray developed a seasonal hurricane forecasting methodology in the 1980s and began reporting his forecasts to the public. His forecasts are widely discussed in the U.S. media. Preliminary forecasts are released before the start of the hurricane season, and the forecasts are then revised as the season progresses.

tance on global warming

Gray is skeptical of current theories of human-induced global warming, which he says is supported by scientists afraid of losing grant fundingcite web| last=Gray |first=William M. | date=2000-11-16 |publisher=BBC News |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2000/climate_change/1023334.stm |title=Viewpoint: Get off warming bandwagon |accessdate=2007-11-10] and promoted by government leaders and environmentalists seeking world government.cite web | title=The Tempest | first=Joel | last=Achenbach | date=2006-05-28 | accessdate=2007-04-23 | publisher=The Washington Post | url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/23/AR2006052301305_pf.html] . He believes that humans are not responsible for the warming of the earth and has stated that "We're brainwashing our children."cite web | title=Gore gets a cold shoulder | url=http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/gore-gets-a-cold-shoulder/2007/10/13/1191696238792.html | publisher=Sydney Morning Herald | date=2007-10-14 | last=Lyttle | first=Steve | accessdate=2007-11-11] . He asked, "How can we trust climate forecasts 50 and 100 years into the future (that can’t be verified in our lifetime) when they are not able to make shorter seasonal or yearly forecasts that could be verified?" [cite web | title=Statement of Dr. William Gray | first=William M. | last=Gray | publisher=United States Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works | date=2005-09-28 | accessdate=2007-04-23 | url=http://epw.senate.gov/hearing_statements.cfm?id=246768]

Gray said those who had linked global warming to the increased number of hurricanes in recent years were in error. He cites statistics showing that there were 101 hurricanes from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperature, compared to 83 from 1957 to 2006 when the earth warmed.

Gray does not say there has not been any warming, but states "I don't question that. And humans might have caused a very slight amount of this warming. Very slight. But this warming trend is not going to keep on going. My belief is that three, four years from now, the globe will start to cool again, as it did from the middle '40s to the middle '70s."cite web | url=http://www.denverpost.com/harsanyi/ci_3899807 | publisher=The Denver Post | date=2006-06-05 | title=Chill out over global warming | first=David | last=Harsanyi | accessdate=2007-04-23 ]

According to an earlier interview reported by Joel Aschenbach, Gray had similarly said that the current warming in the past decades is a natural cycle, driven by a global ocean circulation that manifests itself in the North Atlantic Ocean as the Gulf Stream cite web | title=The Tempest | first=Joel | last=Achenbach | date=2006-05-28 | accessdate=2007-04-23 | publisher=The Washington Post | url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/23/AR2006052301305_pf.html] .

In a December 2006 interview with David Harsanyi of The Denver Post, Gray said, "They've been brainwashing us for 20 years, starting with the nuclear winter and now with the global warming. This scare will also run its course. In 15–20 years, we'll look back and see what a hoax this was." In this interview, Gray cites the global cooling article in Newsweek from 1975 as evidence that such a scare has happened in the past.

In 2006, Gray predicted a cooling trend by 2009-2010.

Criticisms of Gray's statements on global warming

Gray's statements on Global Warming have been the subject of criticism. Peter Webster, a Georgia Institute of Technology professor, has been part of the anonymous peer review on several of Gray's National Science Foundation proposals. In every case he has turned down the global warming research component because he believed it was not up to standards, but recommended that Gray's hurricane research be funded.cite web | title=The Skeptic | first=Alan | last=Prendergast | date=2006-06-29 | url=http://www.westword.com/2006-06-29/news/the-skeptic/full | publisher=Denver Westwood News]

Webster, who has co-authored other scientific papers with Gray, is also critical of Gray for his personal attacks on the scientists with whom he disagrees. "Bill, for some very good reasons, has been the go-to man on hurricanes for the last 35 years," says Webster. "All of a sudden there are a lot of people saying things Bill doesn't agree with. And they're getting a lot of press—more press than I like, actually. I like the ivory tower. But he's become more and more radical."

ee also

* List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming

References

External links

* [http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/dept/faculty/emeritus/gray.php Faculty profile at Colorado State University]
* [http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/ The Tropical Meteorology Project]
* [http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/04/gray-on-agw/ Real Climate, Gray and Muddy Thinking about Global Warming]
* [http://www.westword.com/Issues/2006-06-29/news/feature_full.html Alan Prendergast Denver Westword News article, "The Skeptic," from June 29, 2006]
* [http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptics/Gray.html Logical Science's analysis and video clips of Dr. Gray]
* [http://www.discover.com/issues/sep-05/departments/discover-dialogue/ Discover.com interview of Dr. Gray]
* [http://www.biotrends.org/profiles/profiles_WGray_JunJul06.htm Interview with Dr. Gray about hurricane forecasting]