Estimates of the Palestinian Refugee flight of 1948

No-one knows exactly how many Palestinians became refugees during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, but estimates generally place the number between half a million and a million. These estimates calculate the number by attempting to estimate the number of non-Jews in (what would become) Israel before the start of hostilities, and subtracting the number of non-Jews left in Israel after the end of hostilities. Confounding these estimates is the fact that tens of thousands of non-Jews both left and entered Israel following the cessation of hostilities.

Discussions or estimates of the number of Palestinian refugees typically fail to differentiate between number of non-Jews who left the areas eventually controlled by Israel, and the number of people who were actually registered as refugees. The latter numbers have always been considerably higher than the former; the United Nations has attributed this difference to a number of factors, initially to "duplication of ration cards, addition of persons who have been displaced from area other than Israel-held areas and of persons who, although not displaced, are destitute", [http://domino.un.org/unispal.nsf/9a798adbf322aff38525617b006d88d7/93037e3b939746de8525610200567883!OpenDocument] and in subsequent years to the fact that "all births are eagerly announced, the deaths wherever possible are passed over in silence" and a birthrate that was "high in any case", contributing to "a net addition of 30,000 names a year." [http://domino.un.org/unispal.nsf/181c4bf00c44e5fd85256cef0073c426/8d26108af518ce7e052565a6006e8948!OpenDocument] According the U.N., the refugee lists also contained "many false and duplicate registrations." [http://domino.un.org/unispal.nsf/181c4bf00c44e5fd85256cef0073c426/8d26108af518ce7e052565a6006e8948!OpenDocument] .

The only refugees registered by the UN, however, were those eligible for relief services (provided by what eventually became the United Nations Relief and Works Agency [http://www.unra.org] ) in the West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. Those that fled further afield in 1948, or who were subsequently born outside of these areas, are not eligible for UNRWA registration, and hence are not counted in UN refugee totals. [http://domino.un.org/UNISPAL.NSF/0/998720e728b76d88052565a800501900?OpenDocument]

This article lists the various U.N. estimates for the numbers of people who fled or left the area captured by Israel (both final and interim estimates), as well as the number of people who registered as refugees. As well, it provides a nearly exhaustive list of other final and interim estimates of Palestinian refugees available from the internet, and a small number of estimates from other sources.

UN estimates

Estimate of number of people who left or fled the area captured by Israel

Final estimate

* 711,000 according to the "General Progress Report and Supplementary Report of the United Nations Conciliation Commission for Palestine, Covering the Period from 11 December 1949 to 23 October 1950," published by the United Nations Conciliation Commission, October 23, 1950. (U.N. General Assembly Official Records, 5th Session, Supplement No. 18, Document A/1367/Rev. 1) [http://domino.un.org/unispal.nsf/9a798adbf322aff38525617b006d88d7/93037e3b939746de8525610200567883!OpenDocument] fn|1
* Since in those areas that eventually became the state of Israel there were according to the highest British estimate 561,000 Arabs (Oscar K. Rabinovich, 1959) some have suggested that because after the war there were 140,000 Arabs in the new state, the number of refugees therefore couldn't have been greater than 420,000 (also see Dr. Pinner, Tel Aviv 1967).

Interim estimates

* 360,000 in September, 1948, according to the "Progress Report of the United Nations Mediator on Palestine" published by UN Mediator Count Folke Bernadotte, September 16, 1948. (U.N. General Assembly Official Records, 3rd Session, Supplement No. 11, Document A/648) fn|2
* 472,000 in October, 1948, according to the "Progress Report of the Acting United Nations Mediator on Palestine" published by Acting UN Mediator Ralph Bunche, October 18, 1948. (UN General Assembly Official Records, 3rd Session Supplement No. 11A, Document A/689) fn|2
* 726,000 according to the "Final Report of the United Nations Economic Survey Mission for the Middle East" published by the United Nations Conciliation Commission, December 28, 1949. [http://domino.un.org/unispal.nsf/99818751a6a4c9c6852560690077ef61/c2a078fc4065d30285256df30068d278!OpenDocument] (A/AC.25/6/Part.1 p. 21) fn|3
* Emil Ghoury (Telegraph Beirut, September 1948) : 200,000 in June 1948, 300,000 in July 1948.

Estimates of total number of people who registered as refugees

* 800,000 - 900,000 according to the "Historical Survey of Efforts of the United Nations Conciliation Commission for Palestine to Secure the Implementation of Paragraph 11 of General Assembly Resolution 194 (III)" published by the United Nations Conciliation Commission, October 2, 1961. [http://domino.un.org/UNISPAL.NSF/0/3e61557f8de6781a052565910073e819?OpenDocument] (A/AC.25/W.81/Rev.2)
* 875,998 refugees in June 1951, according to the "Report of the Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East" published by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, September 28, 1951. (U.N. General Assembly Official Records, 6th Session, Supplement No. 16, Document A/1905) [http://domino.un.org/unispal.nsf/181c4bf00c44e5fd85256cef0073c426/8d26108af518ce7e052565a6006e8948!OpenDocument] fn|4
* 914,000 refugees in 1950, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency website. [http://www.un.org/unrwa/refugees/whois.html] fn|5
* 957,000 refugees in 1950 according to the "Report of the Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East" published by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, September 28, 1951. (U.N. General Assembly Official Records, 6th Session, Supplement No. 16, Document A/1905) [http://domino.un.org/unispal.nsf/9a798adbf322aff38525617b006d88d7/8d26108af518ce7e052565a6006e8948!OpenDocument] fn|6

Other estimates of flight or refugees

Final

* 400,000 "Israeli government estimate" according to Elia Zureik [http://www.arts.mcgill.ca/mepp/new_prrn/research/papers/zureik.htm]
* 420,000- According to Joseph E. Katz on www.eretzyisroel.org. [http://www.eretzyisroel.org/~samuel/refugees.html] ^fn|7
* 520,000 "Israeli estimates" according to www.mideastweb.org. [http://www.mideastweb.org/refugees1.htm]
* 540,000 - 720,000 According to www.palestinefacts.org [http://www.palestinefacts.org/pf_independence_refugees_arabs_what.php]
* 600,000 "Private Israeli sources" according to www.mideastweb.org. [http://www.mideastweb.org/refugees1.htm]
* 600,000 - 700,000 According to Nicole Brackman on www.aijac.org.au [http://www.aijac.org.au/updates/Jan-01/150101.html]
* 620,000 According to www.mideastweb.org [http://www.mideastweb.org/palpop.htm]
* 630,000 According to Yoram Ettinger on www.acpr.org.il [http://www.acpr.org.il/cloakrm/clk99.html]
* 630,000 According to Yuval Arnon-Ohana on www.Bnetanyahu.com [http://www.netanyahu.org/19palrefwhos.html]
* 650,000- According to Mitchell Bard on www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org [http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/History/refugees.html]
* 700,000 "It is impossible to arrive at a definite persuasive estimate. My predeliction would be to opt for the loose contemporary British formula, that of 'between 600,000 and 760,000' refugees; but, if pressed, 700,000 is probably a fair estimate" - Benny Morris, The Birth of the Palestinian Refugee Problem Revisited, p603-4.
* 720,000 According to www.jafi.org citing "Irving Howe and Carl Gershman (eds.), Israel, the Arabs and the Middle East (New York: Bantam, 1972), p. 168." [http://www.jafi.org.il/education/100/maps/refuge.html]
* 750,000 According to www.palestinecenter.org. [http://www.palestinecenter.org/cpap/pubs/19990714ib.html] (1999)
* 750,000+ According to www.palestinehistory.com. [http://www.palestinehistory.com/ref1948.htm]
* 750,000 - 800,000 "Private Palestinian sources" according to Elia Zureik [http://www.arts.mcgill.ca/mepp/new_prrn/research/papers/zureik.htm]
* 800,000- According to Amira Howeidy on "Al-Ahram Weekly" online. [http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/690/profile.htm]
* 800,000 According to Elia Zureik. [http://www.arts.mcgill.ca/MEPP/PRRN/papers/zureik2.html]
* 800,000 According to www.mideastjournal.com. [http://www.mideastjournal.com/rightofreturn.html] [http://www.ifamericansknew.org/history/ref-qumsiyeh.html]
* 800,000 - Walter Eytan, head of Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry, in a private letter of 1950 (quoted by Morris, Birth...Revisited, p602)
* 800,000 - 900,000 "Palestinian figures" according to Elia Zureik [http://www.arts.mcgill.ca/mepp/new_prrn/research/papers/zureik.htm]
* 804,767 According to Salman Abu-Sitta on www.palestineremembered.com [http://www.palestineremembered.com/Acre/Right-Of-Return/Story433.html] fn|8
* 850,000 "United Nations estimate" according to Elia Zureik [http://www.arts.mcgill.ca/mepp/new_prrn/research/papers/zureik.htm]
* 900,000+ According to www.humanrightshouse.org. [http://www.humanrightshouse.org/dllvis5.asp?id=2028]
* 900,000 According to Abdel-Azim Hammad on Al-Ahram Weekly. [http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/1999/438/op2.htm] (1999)
* 935,000 According to Salman Abu-Sitta ("From Refugees to Citizen at Home: Al Naqba Anatomy" [http://www.plands.org/books/citizen/Al_Nakba_Anatomy.htm] ).

Interim

* 200,000+ by May, 1948 according to Joseph E. Katz on www.eretzyisroel.org. [http://www.eretzyisroel.org/~samuel/refugees.html]
* 250,000 by May, 1948 according to www.mideastweb.org [http://www.mideastweb.org/refugees1.htm]
* 300,000 by May, 1948 according to Noam Chomsky pp. 131-132 Understanding Power: The Indispensable Chomsky [http://www.representativepress.org/Sources.html]
* 380,000 by 15 May 1948 according to Dr. Ilan Pappe of Haifa University, "The Making of the Arab-Israeli Conflict, 1947-51", London: I.B. Tauris, 1992. pp. 85, 96 [http://www.representativepress.org/Sources.html]
* 500,000 by June, 1948 according to Salman Abu-Sitta ("From Refugees to Citizen at Home: Al Naqba Anatomy" [http://www.plands.org/books/citizen/Al_Nakba_Anatomy.htm] ).
* 630,000 by July, 1948 according to Salman Abu-Sitta ("From Refugees to Citizen at Home: Al Naqba Anatomy" [http://www.plands.org/books/citizen/Al_Nakba_Anatomy.htm] ).
* 700,000 by October, 1948 according to Salman Abu-Sitta ("From Refugees to Citizen at Home: Al Naqba Anatomy" [http://www.plands.org/books/citizen/Al_Nakba_Anatomy.htm] ).

Footnotes

*fnb|1 The Committee believed the estimate to be "as accurate as circumstances permit", and attributed the higher number on relief to, among other things, "duplication of ration cards, addition of persons who have been displaced from area other than Israel-held areas and of persons who, although not displaced, are destitute."
*fnb|2 Figure refers only to people registered as refugees.
*fnb|3 This estimate by the UN Concilation Commission has been repeated in a number of other UN documents [http://domino.un.org/UNISPAL.NSF/0/805c731452035912852569d1005c1201?OpenDocument] , [http://domino.un.org/UNISPAL.NSF/0/3c5de9979eb7072f85256e9900639833?OpenDocument] . The number was calculated by estimating the number of non-Jews living within the borders of Israel at the end of 1947 and subtracting the number of remaining non-Jews living within the borders of Israel after the war. It does not include an estimated 25,000 border-line refugees - refugees who lost their livelihood because their village land was located in Israeli-occupied territory, while the village house remained in Arab territory. The figure was later revised down by the UN Concilation Commission to 711,000. [http://domino.un.org/unispal.nsf/9a798adbf322aff38525617b006d88d7/93037e3b939746de8525610200567883!OpenDocument]
*fnb|4 Figure inflated because "all births are eagerly announced, the deaths wherever possible are passed over in silence, and as the birthrate is high in any case, a net addition of 30,000 names a year". [http://domino.un.org/unispal.nsf/181c4bf00c44e5fd85256cef0073c426/8d26108af518ce7e052565a6006e8948!OpenDocument] The figure includes descendants of the Palestinian refugees born after the Palestinian exodus up to June 1951.
*fnb|5 Figure does not match official UNRWA estimates submitted to the UN.
*fnb|6 Figure later revised down to 876,000 by UNRWA after "many false and duplicate registrations weeded out." [http://domino.un.org/unispal.nsf/181c4bf00c44e5fd85256cef0073c426/8d26108af518ce7e052565a6006e8948!OpenDocument]
*fnb|7 Figure calculated by taking the number of Arabs actually living in that part of Palestine which became Israel (561,000, as calculated by Dr. Oscar K. Rabinowicz on the basis of the statistics in the British Survey of Palestine, Vol. 1, and published in Jewish Social Studies (October 1959), pp. 240-242) and subtracting those left at the end of hostilities in 1949 (140,000), leaving 421,000.
*fnb|8 Figure calculated by using the official village statistics of 1944/1945 and upgraded to 1948/1949 by taking a net natural increase of 3.8% for four years. The number of non-Jews remaining in Israel was then deducted from the total count.

ee also

* Palestinian exodus
* Palestinian refugee

External References

* [http://www.zionism-israel.com/impact_of_zionism.htm Zionism and its impact] non neutral website
* [http://www.mideastweb.org/palpop.htm Population of Ottoman and Mandatory Palestine.] Examines claims and counter claims regarding the numbers of Arabs and Jews living in Israel and the number of refugees.