United States Senate elections, 2012

Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 6, 2012, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Thirty-three seats are regular elections; the winners will serve six-year terms from January 3 2013 until January 3 2019.

The 2012 presidential election will also be held on this date, as well as elections for governors and the House of Representatives, will occur on the same date, as well as many state and local elections.

Composition

The composition of the Senate going into the 2012 election will depend on the results of the 2008 and 2010 elections. Among the Senators up for election in 2012, there will be 23 Democrats, 9 Republicans, and 1 Independent. The Democrats include "Independent Democrat" Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary. Lieberman and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with the Democratic Party.

There may be some additional changes if Senators die or resign. If Senators in other classes die or resign between 2010 and 2012, there may be additional special elections between the beginning of the 110th Congress (on January 3, 2007), and the 2012 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a Senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.

Races

Deaths

On June 4, 2007, Republican U.S. Senator Craig L. Thomas of Wyoming died. John Barrasso replaced him in the Senate on June 25, 2007. Whoever wins a special election in 2008, is eligible to run in 2012.

Retiring Senators

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) of Texas

In an interview with Texas Monthly to be published in December 2007, Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison stated that she will not seek re-election and may also resign from the Senate as early as 2009 [http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5216932.html] . Hutchison was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote despite a poor overall climate for Republicans, who lost control of both chambers of Congress that year. Hutchison has not ruled out a run for Governor of Texas in 2010.

If Hutchison does step down early, Republican Governor Rick Perry will likely appoint a GOP replacement that may also double as the leading candidate for a special election that will involve multiple Democrats seeking the seat. If Hutchison serves out her term and upholds her stance to retire, a truckload of candidates from both parties in heavily Republican Texas will run for her seat. Potential Republicans include Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, Attorney General Greg Abbott, Comptroller Susan Combs, State Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, State Agriculture Commissioner Todd staples, State Railroad Commissioners Michael Williams, Victor Carrillo, and Elizabeth Ames Jones, State Representative Leo Berman, Telecommunications worker Larry Kilgore, Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, Dallas based Christian physican and 2002 U.S. Senate Republican primary candidate Dr. Bruce Rusty Lang, and various members of Congress such as Kevin Brady, Kay Granger, Jeb Hensarling, John Culberson, Louie Gohmert, Ted Poe, John Carter, Mike Conaway, Mac Thornberry, Kenny Marchant, Randy Neugebauer, and former member Henry Bonilla who some believe was robbed of his House seat by the Supreme Court. For the Democrats, likely candidates include Houston Mayor Bill White, former Houston Mayor Lee Brown, State Senator and former Austin mayor Kirk Watson, former Dallas Mayor and 2002 U.S. Senate Democrat candidate Ron Kirk, 2006 U.S. Senate Democrat candidate Barbara Radfonsky, congressmen Chet Edwards, Nick Lampson, Al Green, Ruben Hinojosa, Charlie Gonzalez, Ciro Rodriguez, Henry Cuellar, Silvestre Reyes, Solomon Ortiz, Gene Green and Lloyd Doggett, and former Congressmen Jim Turner, Chris Bell, Martin Frost, Max Sandlin, Charles Stenholm, and Ken Bentsen who also ran as a candidate in the 2002 U.S. Senate Democrat primary.

Trent Lott (R) of Mississippi

Former Senate Majority Leader and current Senate Minority Whip Trent Lott announced on November 26, 2007 that he was going to retire by the end of 2007. [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21973397/] Under Mississippi law, Republican Governor Haley Barbour appointed U.S. Representative Roger Wicker of Mississippi's 1st district to serve as an interm senator to serve until a special election is held in 2008. Wicker will run in the 2008 election against Democrat Ronnie Musgrove, a former governor of the state. The winner will be up for re-election in 2012.

Democratic incumbent elections

Dianne Feinstein of California

Dianne Feinstein first won election to the Senate in a special election in 1992. She has not announced if she will seek another term. However, some individuals believe she may be a strong contender to run for California Governor in 2010 [ [http://www.sacbee.com/391/story/1149313.html] ] . Republicans could put up several challengers such as Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, comedian and libertarian activist Dennis Miller, State Senators Tom McClintock and David Cox, State Representative Bonnie Garcia, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poinzer and Republican congressmen such as David Dreier, the ranking Republican on the House Rules Committee, Gary Miller, George Radanovich, Ed Royce, Wally Herger, Dan Lungren and Darrell Issa. Democrats could turn to Congresswomen Loretta Sanchez and Linda Sanchez, former State Treasurer and 2006 Gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides, former State Controller Steve Westly, Secretary of State Debra Bowen, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former Governor and Attorney General Jerry Brown, Congressmen Xavier Beccera, Henry Waxman, Howard Berman, Joe Baca, Mike Thompson, Brad Sherman, Adam Schiff, Jim Costa, Bob Filner and Jerry Mcnerney or San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom if Feinstein seeks retirement.

Tom Carper of Delaware

Tom Carper was first elected to the Senate in 2000 and was reelected by a wide margin in 2006. Potentially strong Republicans that could run for this seat include State Auditor Tom Wagner and Congressman Michael Castle.

Bill Nelson of Florida

Bill Nelson was first elected to the Senate in 2000 and was reelected by a wide margin in 2006. Congresswoman Ginny Brown-Waite could be a strong contender for this seat. Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum (who unsuccessfully challenged Nelson in 2000), former Governor Jeb Bush, Governor Charlie Crist, Jacksonville Mayor John Peyton or Congressmen Gus Bilirakis, John Mica, Jeff Miller, Cliff Stearns, Ric Keller, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Vern Buchanan could also run. If Nelson retires, U.S. Representatives Debbie Wasserman Schultz (20th district), Robert Wexler (19th district), and Ron Klein (22nd district) may run for the seat, as could State Senator Dave Aronberg.

Daniel Akaka of Hawaii

Daniel Akaka was first appointed to the Senate in 1990 and first elected in 1994. He was reelected by a wide margin in 2006. At 82, he is one of the oldest Senators, sparking speculation that he may retire. Former Congressman Ed Case, who unsuccessfully ran against Akaka in the 2006 Senate election, has hinted that he might run for Akaka's seat in 2012, and he has already started fundraising for such a run [http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070719/NEWS01/707190332/1001/NEWS01] . Other possible Democratic candidates could be Hawaii State Senator Colleen Hanabusa, who may be a palatable alternative for more progressive or liberal Democrats who believe Case is too conservative to represent Hawaii, and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann. Republican Governor Linda Lingle, Lieutenant Governor James Aiona and US Senate Hawaii Candidate 2006 Eddie Pirkowski may run for the seat if Akaka retires, although Lingle could instead decide to run in 2010 for the U.S. Senate seat of Daniel Inouye, in the possible event that Inouye retires.

Ben Cardin of Maryland

Ben Cardin was first elected to the Senate in 2006 against former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele. Steele, who lost by a double digit margin in 2006, is a potential candidate to oppose the senator in his first re-election bid. Other potential candidates include former Governor Robert Ehrlich and State Senator E. J. Pipkin.

Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts

Ted Kennedy was first elected to the Senate in 1962. He was reelected by a wide margin in 2006. He is the second-longest-serving Senator, would be 80 years old in 2012, and is occasionally speculated to be planning retirement that year, particularly in light of his 2008 diagnosis with a malignant brain tumor. Probable Democrats include current governor Deval Patrick, any of the Democratic congressmen, current state senate president Therese Murray, or any representative in the state. Possible Republican candidates are former Governors Paul Cellucci, William Weld, and Mitt Romney, former Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling (who was mentioned as a potential candidate in 2008 against Kennedy's junior senator, John Kerry, and has endorsed John McCain for President) [See Curt Schilling#Political advocacy] , and former Congressman's Peter Blute and Peter Torkildsen.

Debbie Stabenow of Michigan

Debbie Stabenow won re-election in 2006 with 57% of the vote to 41% for Oakland County Sheriff and former State Senate Majority Leader Michael Bouchard after narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Spencer Abraham in 2000.

Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

Amy Klobuchar was first elected to the Senate in 2006 by a wide margin. Senator Klobuchar's approval ratings, last reported at 62% [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0b29dcd9-c776-4584-8db9-76316e194c20] , have steadily risen since her electing in November 2006. Her quick response to the I-35 bridge collapse in her home city of Minneapolis and her travels around the state seem to have kept the senator's numbers up with the citizens of Minnesota.

Claire McCaskill of Missouri

Claire McCaskill was first elected to the Senate in 2006 by a narrow margin, defeating then-incumbent Jim Talent. Missouri is often considered a swing state in presidential elections; in fact, it has frequently voted for the winning candidate more often than any other state since the beginning of the 20th century. A continued Democratic trend in 2012 would favor a McCaskill reelection while a political trend favoring Republicans (whether in the 2012 presidential election or in regards to Congress) would make this a great chance for a Republican pickup. Potential candidates for this seat would be Governor Matt Blunt, Missouri State Coordinator C.Anthony Ince and Congressmen Todd Akin, Roy Blunt and Sam Graves.

Jon Tester of Montana

Jon Tester was first elected to the Senate in 2006 by a narrow margin, defeating then-scandal plagued incumbent Conrad Burns in an upset. Tester could face a strong Republican challenge from Dennis Rehberg, the U.S. Representative for Montana's At-Large district.

Ben Nelson of Nebraska

Ben Nelson, arguably the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, is among the most popular Senators, and was re-elected with 64% of the vote in 2006. Republicans could challenge for the seat in 2012 depending on that year's political climate.

Robert Menendez of New Jersey

Bob Menendez became the first Hispanic Senator to represent New Jersey in January 2006 when Senator Jon Corzine appointed him to the office after having resigned to become Governor. In November 2006 Menendez survived a strong challenge from Republican Tom Kean, Jr., son of popular former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Tom Kean and was elected to a full term. The younger Kean, now the Minority Whip of the New Jersey Senate, could challenge for the seat again in 2012, as could Congressmen Scott Garrett, Frank LoBiondo, and Chris Smith.

Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico

Jeff Bingaman was easily re-elected in 2006 with 71% of the vote and is favored to hold this seat again in 2012 if he seeks re-election. One potential Republican candidate could be State Land Commissioner Patrick Lyons.

Hillary Clinton of New York

Two term incumbent Senator Hillary Clinton may retire. She narrowly lost the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination to Barack Obama. Potential Democratic candidates are Congressmen Jerry Nadler, Gregory Meeks, Gary Ackerman, John Hall, Michael Arcuri, Jose Serrano, Timothy Bishop, Anthony Weiner, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand. Republican candidates include former Governor George Pataki, and incumbent Congressmen Peter King and John McHugh. It has also been speculated that, if she does not receive an appointment to the United States Supreme Court, an Obama Administration cabinet posting, or run for president again in 2012 in the event that John McCain wins the 2008 election that she may give up her seat to run for Governor of New York if incumbent David Paterson declines to run for a full term.

Kent Conrad of North Dakota

Kent Conrad, a four term Democratic Senator from North Dakota, may retire. Conrad has been in the Senate since 1986. In 1992, Conrad retired from the Senate, after winning the election for North Dakota's other Senate seat. He is the only Senator in Senate history to hold both of a state's Senate seats on the same day. Potential Republican candidates are Governor of North Dakota John Hoeven, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, Senate Majority Leader Bob Stenehjem, Secretary of State Alvin Jaeger, Public Service Commissioners Tony Clark and Kevin Cramer, former Governor Ed Schafer and Lieutenant Governor Jack Dalrymple. Dalrymple in fact ran in 1992 for the Senate against Conrad, but was soundly defeated 63.22% to 33.80%.

herrod Brown of Ohio

Sherrod Brown was first elected to the Senate in 2006 by a wide margin, defeating then-incumbent Mike DeWine, whose popularity suffered from the strong anti-Republican voting trend in Ohio due to scandals involving former Republican Governor Bob Taft and ex-Congressman Bob Ney.

Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania

Bob Casey, Jr. was first elected to the Senate in 2006 by a wide margin, defeating then-incumbent Rick Santorum.

heldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island

Sheldon Whitehouse was first elected to the Senate in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Lincoln Chafee by 6 percentage points. Chaffee is unlikely to run again in 2012, as his defeat led him to leave the Republican party. However, the current governor, Don Carcieri could run. Rhode Island is arguably the most Democratic state in the country, and is likely to re-elect Whitehouse.

Jim Webb of Virginia

Jim Webb was first elected to the Senate in 2006 by a margin of .6 percent, defeating then-incumbent George Allen in the biggest upset of the 2006 election, influenced by a number of gaffes on Allen's part, most notably an apparent ethnic slur in which Allen referred to a Webb supporter using the word "macaca". Webb could face a tough reelection bid against a well-funded and powerful challenger, but Virginia's changing electorate could harm future GOP chances of retaking this seat, which would also be complicated by a splintered GOP base that favors moderates in Northern Virginia and conservatives in the rest of the state.

Robert Byrd of West Virginia

Robert Byrd, the longest serving U.S Senator in history, may retire. Byrd has been serving in the Senate since 1959, and would be running for a tenth term. Byrd will be 95 in 2012, leaving many to speculate he may retire. However, in a speech on the Senate floor, Sen. Byrd proclaimed that he would remain in the Senate "till this old body drops." [ [http://youtube.com/watch?v=O8nTid_TkGI Robert Byrd Defends His Age (Part 1)] Youtube.] [ [http://youtube.com/watch?v=8jt9edpnAjg Robert Byrd Defends His Age (Part 2)] Youtube.] If he does run for re-election, he is a favorite for a tenth term. If he retires, Republicans could have a chance of taking the seat with U.S. Representative Shelley Moore Capito. Should Byrd retire, likely candidates for the Democrats include current Governor Joe Manchin, former State Senator Charlotte Pritt, who defeated Manchin for the Governor nomination in 1996, Congressman Allan Mollohan, and current State Treasurer John Perdue.

Maria Cantwell of Washington

Maria Cantwell easily survived a 2006 challenge from Republican Mike McGavick with 57% of the vote and won her first term against incumbent Slade Gorton by a razor-thin margin of just over 2,000 votes in 2000.

Herb Kohl of Wisconsin

Wealthy businessman Herb Kohl, owner of the NBA's Milwaukee Bucks, has won by increasing margins since his first election to the Senate in 1988. Boasting a fairly moderate voting record, Kohl is strongly favored to hold this seat.

Independent incumbent elections

Joe Lieberman of Connecticut

Joe Lieberman first won election to the Senate in 1988. He sat as a Democrat until 2006, when he was defeated by Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary. He won reelection in 2006 as an independent under the Connecticut for Lieberman Party and has since caucused with the Democrats as an "Independent Democrat."cite web
url=http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm?Name=Lieberman
title=Senators of the 110th Congress
publisher=U.S. Senate
date=2006-01-03.] He will almost certainly face another serious challenge from the left should he run for reelection. Republicans could field Governor Jodi Rell, 2004 Senate candidate Jack Orchulli or Representative Christopher Shays should Lieberman retire or resign. Lieberman might be tapped for potential cabinet position in a potential John McCain-Sarah Palin administration.

Bernie Sanders of Vermont

Bernie Sanders is an independent Senator (and self-described democratic socialist) who caucuses with the Democrats and won election to the Senate after Jim Jeffords, also an independent, retired. Sanders is a favorite for re-election unless Governor Jim Douglas runs.

Republican incumbent elections

Jon Kyl of Arizona

Jon Kyl was re-elected with 53% of the vote in 2006. He has yet to announce if he will seek a fourth term. It is likely he will not announce plans for re-election until 2010 or 2011. Arizona has seen success with some of its Democratic elected officials recently, such as Governor Janet Napolitano, Attorney General Terry Goddard and Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords.

Dick Lugar of Indiana

Unopposed by a Democrat in 2006, Dick Lugar easily won re-election with 87% of the vote. He will be 81 years old on Election Day 2012 and will be favored to hold this seat if he does run for re-election. Lugar's 2012 re-election website is already running. [ [http://www.lugar2012.com/ Dick Lugar - U.S. Senator for Indiana ] ]

Olympia Snowe of Maine

Widely popular moderate Republican Olympia Snowe was re-elected in 2006 with 73% of the vote, the largest margin of any incumbent in 2006, barring Indiana Senator Dick Lugar (who ran without a Democratic opponent). Potentially strong Democratic challengers for this seat would include former Governors Joseph Brennan and Angus King, State Senate President Beth Edmonds and Congressman Michael Michaud.

John Ensign of Nevada

John Ensign was re-elected with 55% of the vote in 2006 against Jack Carter, son of former Democratic President Jimmy Carter. If Nevada's Democratic trend continues into 2012, Ensign could face a challenge. Possible strong challenges to Ensign include State Treasurer Kate Marshall, Congresswoman Shelley Berkley, and State Senate Minority Leader and 2006 Gubernatorial candidate Dina Titus. Titus is currently running for Congress. [ [http://dinatitus.com Dina Titus for Congress] ]

Bob Corker of Tennessee

Bob Corker narrowly defeated Harold Ford, Jr. in 2006 and has been raising money for reelection since. Tennessee is a relatively conservative state, but Ford may run again along with other potential Democrats, which constitute a majority of the state's congressmen.

Orrin Hatch of Utah

Former Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote. He will be favored for re-election. Potential candidates for this seat include Congressman Jim Matheson, former Attorney General Jan Graham and 2006 Senate candidate Pete Ashdown.

John Barrasso of Wyoming

John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate seat with the passing of Craig L. Thomas. There will be a special election in 2008. The winner of that election will face an election in 2012. Barrasso is a strong favorite to win re-election if he is officially elected in 2008. There is also the possibility he may face a challenge from another Republican, who may be disgruntled with him being appointed. Among those are Former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, Seceretary of State Max Maxfield, Former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, and Former State House Speaker Randall Luthi. Governor Dave Freudenthal is widely seen as a possible candidate for the U.S. Senate for the Democrats, because of his popularity. Freudenthal appointed Barrasso to the U.S. Senate in 2007 and will be term limited in 2010.

Fundraising

Senator Bob Corker (R, TN) set up "the Bob Corker for Senate 2012 committee" on Nov. 8, 2006, one day after winning a six year term. Massie Ritsch, communications director for the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics said that fundraising is almost a full-time job. [Michael Davis "Corker sets up re-election panel 1 day after win. Action called necessary for 'full-time job' of fundraising." Chattanooga Times/Free Press, Tenn. Knight Ridder Tribune Business News. Washington: Dec 12, 2006. pg. 1. Source type: Wire Feed. ProQuest document ID: 1178614851 Text Word Count 261 Document URL: http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1178614851&sid=1&Fmt=3&clientId=76566&RQT=309&VName=PQD (subscription)]

Senate contests in 2012

References