California's 48th congressional district special election, 2005

In the fall of 2005, a special election was held in the 48th Congressional District of California to choose a United States Representative to replace Republican Chris Cox, who resigned effective August 2 2005, to become Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. A Special primary election was held on October 4. Because no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, a runoff general election took place on December 6, 2005. The top vote getter from each party moved to the runoff contest, which only required a candidate to receive a plurality of the vote. Republican candidate John Campbell ultimately won the runoff with only 44% of the vote, as there were three major candidates.

District geography

The district is located in Orange County in southern California, and includes the cities of Aliso Viejo, Dana Point, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods Lake Forest (formerly known as El Toro), Tustin, and parts of Newport Beach, San Juan Capistrano, and Santa Ana.

Candidates

Ten Republicans qualified for the special primary election. California State Senator John Campbell won the Republican nomination by coming in first in the special primary election. Former State Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer came in second. Other Republican candidates included dentist David R. Crouch, former Tustin councilman John Kelly, attorney Scott MacCabe, attorney Guy E. Mailly, real estate agent Masha A. Morris, businessman Marshall Samuel Sanders, businessman Edward A. Suppe, and physician Don A. Udall.

Four Democrats qualified for the special primary election. Attorney Steve Young, UCI professor John Graham (who ran for the seat in three previous elections against Chris Cox: 2000, 2002, and 2004), teacher Bea Foster, and marketing consultant Tom Pallow.

Minuteman Project founder Jim Gilchrist was unopposed for the American Independent Party nomination. Real estate agent Bruce D. Cohen of the Libertarian Party and teacher Béa Tiritilli of the Green Party were also unopposed for the nominations of their respective parties.

Campbell and Brewer were generally considered the frontrunners, with Gilchrist viewed as a possible spoiler against Campbell in the special primary election. Campbell had the backing of many major Republican officeholders, including Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and closely identified with the policies of President George W. Bush. Brewer was considered the more moderate alternative, in favor of abortion and stem cell research and endorsed by Senator John McCain. A sore point for some conservatives in the district was Campbell's position on illegal immigration. Gilchrist ran as a third party candidate primarily on his support for stronger immigration laws.

Political climate

The district is overwhelmingly conservative, with Republicans enjoying a 2 to 1 voter registration advantage (Chris Cox won his last bid for re-election with 65% of the vote). Most pundits therefore viewed the contest as which Republican candidate would get the honor of filling the vacant seat. Because John Campbell obtained the majority of the endorsements within the Republican establishment, and was able to raise over $2,000,000, it quickly became apparent that Campbell would be destined to win.

Campbell's strategy was to ensure that Jim Gilchrist would not "steal" too many votes that would have otherwise gone to him had Gilchrist not run. Gilchrist for his part, spent $500,000 to ensure that the topic of illegal immigration is prominent in the race. Democratic attorney Steve Young spent a large amount of his own money in the hope that Gilchrist and Campbell will split the conservative vote to a point which would allow him to edge both of them. Although Gilchrist spent more than twice the amount Young spent, Young edged Gilchrist for second place by two percentage points in the December 6 general election.

Campbell's confidence in his victory was quite evident. In September, he skipped a candidate forum, and in November he attended a fundraiser for himself in Washington D.C. in which Dick Cheney was the guest of honor. He also bought a December 7 early morning airplane ticket to Washington days before the December 6 runoff.

Results of special primary election

On October 4, Republican John Campbell garnered 45.5 percent of the vote, 4.5 percent short of the majority necessary to avoid a runoff race. He faced the leading vote getter from the four other parties participating: American Independent Jim Gilchrist, Democrat Steve Young, Green Béa Tiritilli, and Libertarian Bruce Cohen in a December 6 runoff.

Results of special general election

The result of the December 6 general election are notable in that Campbell's plurality actually decreased by more than a point, and the combined Democratic total nearly doubled in the general election, with Gilchrist additionally gaining ten points. This would seem to indicate that a large majority of the voters who voted for a Republican candidate other than Campbell in the October 4 special primary election, did not rally behind Campbell in the special general election.

Postscript

Campbell's victory caused a vacancy in the 35th State Senate district. A special primary election was scheduled for April 11, 2006. Two Republicans: Assemblymember and former Huntington Beach, California councilmember Tom Harman, and Dana Point, California councilmember Diane Harkey raised $330 thousand, and $800 thousand respectively for the race (Harkey spent $620 thousand of her own money) [http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/electiontrack/lookup.php?committee=1282381] , [http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/electiontrack/lookup.php?committee=1281172] . The Democratic candidate, Larry Caballero, spent virtually nothing. In a race that was largely centered on the issue of illegal immigration [http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/montereyherald/news/14314949.htm] , Harman edged Harkey by 236 votes, out of over 98,000 votes cast [http://www.oc.ca.gov/election/Live/35thSenP/results.htm] . Harkey has sought a recount of the official results, at a cost of $14,000 (which she had to absorb). The recount did not change the outcome, with Harman's lead shrinking to 225 votes [http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-recount29apr29,1,5575364.story?coll=la-headlines-politics] . Harman faced Caballero in a runoff on June 6 and won the race to succeed Campbell by a 2-1 margin. [http://www.ocvote.com/Live/pri2006/results.htm#c-965]

Harman's election to the State Senate left a vacancy in the State Assembly, which stayed vacant until December 4, 2006, when Jim Silva was sworn in after winning the regularly scheduled election for the seat on November 7.

References

External links

Government web sites

* [http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/Special/cd48/elections_cd48_gen_results.htm General Election Results from the California Secretary of State]
* [http://www.oc.ca.gov/election/ Orange County Registrar of Voters]
** [http://www.oc.ca.gov/election/Live/e26/results.htm Results of October 4 Special Primary Election]
** [http://www.oc.ca.gov/election/Live/e29/results.htm Results of December 6 Special General Election]
* [http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/elections_cd48.htm California Secretary of State site for the Special Election]
* [http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/Special/cd48/cert_list_cd48_primary.pdf List of certified primary candidates]
* [http://clerk.house.gov/members/electionInfo/California_48th/ Vacancy Announcement for seat from the U.S. House of Representatives]

News media

* [http://www.ocregister.com/ocr/2005/08/11/sections/local/local_columns/article_629380.php Brewer senses sharks circling her] - August 11 "Orange County Register" article
* [http://www.ocregister.com/ocr/2005/08/04/sections/local/local/article_621975.php Endorsements for Cox's seat] - August 4 "Orange County Register" article
* [http://www.ocregister.com/ocr/2005/08/03/sections/breaking_news/article_621068.php Endorsements start for Cox's seat] - August 3 "Orange County Register" article
* [http://www.ocregister.com/ocr/2005/08/02/sections/commentary/orange_grove/article_618777.php The changes I've seen] - August 2 "Orange County Register" article by Chris Cox
* [http://www.ocregister.com/ocr/2005/07/30/sections/news/news/article_616935.php Cox says he's out of politics] - July 30 "Orange County Register" article

Campaign sites

General election candidates

* [http://www.campbellforcongress.com John Campbell for Congress web site]
* [http://www.getbruce.com Bruce Cohen for Congress web site]
* [http://www.jimgilchrist.com Jim Gilchrist for Congress web site]
* [http://www.beatiritilli.us Bea Tiritilli for Congress web site]
* [http://www.steveyoungforcongress.com Steve Young for Congress web site]

Defeated special primary election candidates

* [http://www.marilynbrewerforcongress.com Marilyn Brewer for Congress web site]
* [http://www.crouchforcongress.com David Crouch for Congress web site]
* [http://www.johngraham.us John Graham for Congress web site]
* [http://www.johnkellyforcongress.com John Kelly for Congress web site]
* [http://www.scottmaccabeforcongress.com Scott MacCabe for Congress web site]
* [http://www.guyforcongress.com Guy Mailly for Congress web site]
* [http://www.qualityism.com Tom Pallow for Congress web site]
* [http://www.udallforcongress.com Don Udall for Congress web site]

ee also

* Special elections to the United States House of Representatives