The Keys to the White House

Infobox Book
name = The Keys to the White House


image_caption =
author = Allan Lichtman
country = USA
language = English
subject = Political science
publisher = Madison Books
pub_date = 1996
media_type = Print (Hardcover)
pages = 196
isbn = ISBN 1568330618
oclc =
preceded_by =
followed_by =

"The Keys to the White House" is a 1996 book about a historically based prediction system for determining the next President of the United States. The system was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian scientist Volodia Keilis-Borok, an authority on the mathematics of prediction models.

The Keys System

The Keys are based on the theory that that presidential election results turn primarily on the performance of the party controlling the White House and that campaigning by challenging or incumbent-party candidates will have no impact on results. According to this theory, a pragmatic American electorate chooses a president based on the performance of the party holding the White House as measured by the consequential events and episodes of a term - economic boom and bust, foreign policy successes and failures, social unrest, scandal, and policy innovation.

If the nation fares well during the term of the incumbent party, that party wins another four years in office; otherwise, the challenging party prevails. According to the Keys model, nothing that a candidate has said or done during a campaign, when the public discounts conventional electioneering as political spin, has changed his prospects at the polls. Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage, and campaign strategies count for virtually nothing on Election Day.

Through the application of pattern recognition methodology used in geophysics to data for American presidential elections from 1860 (the first election with a four-year record of competition between Republicans and Democrats) Lichtman and Keilis-Bork developed 13 diagnostic questions that are stated as propositions that favor reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer of these propositions are false or turned against the party holding the White House, that party wins another term in office. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

Unlike many alternative models, the Keys include no polling data, but are based on the big picture of how well the party in power and the country are faring prior to an upcoming election. In addition, the Keys do not presume that voters are driven by economic concerns alone. Voters are less narrow-minded and more sophisticated than that; they decide presidential elections on a wide-ranging assessment of the performance of incumbent parties, all of which are reflected in one or more Keys.

Answers to the questions posed in the Keys require the kinds of judgments that historians typically make about the past. But the judgments are constrained by explicit definitions of each Key. For example, a contested incumbent party nomination is defined as one in which the losing candidates combined secured at least one-third of the delegate votes. Judgments are also constrained by how individual keys have been turned in all 37 previous elections covered by the system. For example, to qualify as charismatic and turn key 12 or 13 – the most judgmental of all keys -- an incumbent or challenging-party candidate must measure up to Reagan, Kennedy, and Franklin and Theodore Roosevelt. The system is also extremely robust as the same keys that predicted Abraham Lincoln’s defeat of Stephen Douglas in 1860 also predicted George W. Bush’s defeat of John Kerry in 2004, despite vast changes in American politics, society, demographic composition, and economic life.

The Keys also have profound implications for presidential politics in the United States. If candidates understood that governance not campaigning counts in election we would have a chance to break America’s endless cycle of empty, scripted, consultant-driven campaigns. Candidates could fire the hucksters, speak from the heart to the American people, and advance their vision from the future. They could also use the campaign to develop the grassroots support needed to advance their policies during the next four years.

The Track Record for the Keys

The Keys retrospectively account for the popular vote winners of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980 and prospectively forecast the popular-vote winners of all six presidential elections from 1984 through 2004. The Keys model predicted George W. Bush’s reelection in April 2003, nearly a year before any other scientific model. In the late spring of 1988, the Keys predicted George H. W. Bush’s victory when he trailed Democrat Michael Dukakis by 17 percentage points in the polls. It predicted Bill Clinton’s win in the complex three-candidate election of 1992. In six elections, the keys have predicted three Republican and three Democratic victories in the popular vote.

In the contested election of 2000, the Keys correctly forecast Democratic candidate Al Gore’s popular-vote victory. However, with five keys turned against them, the Democrats were just one key short of a predicted defeat. However, a fatal sixth key, Third Party Key 4, could conceivably have turned against the party holding the White House. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader surpassed the 5 percent threshold in some polls, However, the rule of thumb for third-party contenders is that they usually finish at about half their peak poll percentage because of the voters’ reluctance to back a nearly certain loser. Nader finished with 2.7 percent of the popular vote, just short of the threshold needed to topple Key 4. However, Nader won more than 97,000 votes in the state of Florida, more than enough to cost Gore a victory (and the presidency) in a state that Bush won by 537 votes.

The Verdict for 2008

The first four keys – the political keys – show clearly the shift in incumbent party prospects between 2004 and 2008. In 2004, the incumbent Republicans secured all four of the political Keys. For 2008, Republicans are certain to lose two of the political Keys. Setbacks in the economy and foreign policy also negatively affect prospects for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.

The current score on the Keys is that four favor the reelection of the party in power, seven are counted against the reelection of the party in power and one Key is uncertain. Thus regardless of the outcome on the uncertain Key there are currently clearly more than enough Keys turned against the incumbent Republican Party to predict its defeat in November.

The following eight Keys are turned against the incumbent party:

*The party’s losses in the 2006 midterm elections cost it Mandate Key 1.

*Bush’s inability to run again in 2008 dooms Incumbency Key 3.

*The recent collapse of the financial markets has made it clear beyond doubt that the economy is in recession and has cost the GOP Short-term Economy Key 5.

*The lagging economy and ongoing stagnation of real income growth cost the Republicans Long-Term Economy Key 6.

*Bush has not achieved the second-term policy revolution needed to secure Policy Change Key 7 (the recent Financial Bailout, while admittedly a change of policy, does not reflect well on the President or John McCain and is clearly not in accordance with their normal political philosophy).

*The disaster in Iraq costs the administration both Foreign⁄Military Success Key 9 and Failure Key 10 (though admittedly the current decrease in violence in Iraq is being spun as a success, but with troop levels in Iraq still above pre-Surge levels this is debatable, and the military repeatedly point out that the current relative calm is fragile and reversible).

*John McCain (while he showed great personal determination as a POW) has not led the nation through war like Dwight Eisenhower, so the GOP loses Incumbent Charisma⁄Hero Key 12.

The following four Keys currently favor the incumbent Republican Party:

*John McCain’s decisive victory wins Contest Key 2 for the GOP.

*The lack of a third-party challenger with prospects of winning 5 percent of the vote secures Third Party Key 4.

*The absence of social upheavals comparable to the 1960s, avoids the loss of Social Unrest Key 8.

*The failure of the scandals at the White House to impact the President directly so far precludes turning Scandal Key 9 against the administration.

The following Key is uncertain:

*Barack Obama may yet emerge as a charismatic Democrat comparable to John F. Kennedy, but he still must be tested in a general election campaign, so Challenger Charisma⁄Hero Key 13 remains uncertain.

Events between now and Election Day are most unlikely to alter the current prediction. For the GOP, would be necessary to reverse three of the negative Keys and the uncertain Key would also have to fall. While the Foreign-Military Success Key could conceivably still be reversed quickly (such as by capturing or killing Osama bin Laden as an October Surprise), none of the other Keys seem amenable to a quick fix (even if John McCain were to personally led the mission that captured or killed Osama bin Laden, that would still only flip two keys). On the Democratic side, the only further Key they could gain at this point would be if the ongoing drumbeat about scandals at the White House were to flare up again, this time with evidence clearly implicating the President.

Admittedly, the Democrats have shattered precedent with nomination of an African-American – something at least as unconventional as John F. Kennedy's Catholicism was in 1960. It is impossible to know in advance to what extent voters will be negatively influenced by Obama’s race. The Keys, however, are a robust system that has endured through vast changes in the electorate, the economy, the society and the technology of elections. It is unlikely that even a ground-breaking nominee will alter the negative verdict on the party in power.

The 13 Keys to The White House: 2008 Forecast

The Keys are statements that favor the re election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

# Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. (False)
#Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. (True)
#Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. (False)
#Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (True)
#Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (False)
#Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (False)
#Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (False)
#Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (True)
#Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (Currently true)
#Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (False)
#Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (Currently false)
#Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (False)
#Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (Uncertain)

TRUE: 4 KEYS. FALSE: 8 KEYS. UNCERTAIN: 1 KEY.PREDICTION: INCUMBENT REPUBLICANS LOSE

This forecast is incorporated in the PollyVote.

Related Work

*Graefe, A. & Armstrong, J.S. (2008). [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PollyVote/images/articles/index_us.pdf Forecasting Elections on Voters' Perceptions on Issues and Policies]

References

*Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzan, A. G. (Feb. 2006). Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to the American Presidential Elections. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 3, 10-13.
*Jones, R. J. (2002). Who Will be in the White House?: Predicting Presidential Elections. (New York: Longman).
*Keilis-Borok, V. I. & Lichtman, A. J. (1981). Pattern Recognition Applied to Presidential Elections in the United States, 1860-1980: The Role of Integral Social, Economic, and Political Traits. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 78, 7230-7234.
*Lichtman, A. J. (2008). The Keys to the White House, 2008 Edition. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
*Lichtman, A. J. (Apr.-June, 2008). The Keys to the White House: An index Forecast for 2008. International Journal of Forecasting. 24, 301-309.