- Casualty prediction
Casualty prediction is the science of predicting the number of deaths or injuries that may result from an
epidemic ,natural disaster or act of war such as the explosion of anuclear weapon ,chemical weapon orbiological weapon . [ [http://stinet.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=AD0668342 "BLAST CASUALTY PREDICTION-PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE.", by John J. Shea, April, 1968,Defense Technical Information Center ] ] [ [http://stinet.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA085170 "Demographics and Casualty Prediction/Analysis", by John J. Shea, February, 1980,Defense Technical Information Center ] ] [ [http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/529212 "Responding to Simulated Pandemic Influenza in San Antonio, Texas", by George Miller, Stephen Randolph and Jan E. Patterson, "Infection control and hospital epidemiology", April 2008] ] [ [http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PAI/is_6_35/ai_110459243 "Casualty estimation in modern warfare", by David R. Gibson, Army Logistician, Nov-Dec, 2003] ] (Casualty estimation is the process of estimating the number of injuries or deaths in a battle or natural disaster that has already occurred.)The
New York University Large Scale Emergency Readiness Project [ [http://www.nyu.edu/ccpr/laser/planc.html Large Scale Emergency Readiness Project] ] appliesagent-based modelling to simulate the effects of a large-scale disaster. Their initial project focussed on modelling a 1998 Brazilian food-poisoning incident involving 8,000 injuries and 16 deaths.Blast casualty prediction is routinely performed in the planning of
military operations . For example, acruise missile attack was considered by the United States in 1998 forTarnak Farms in order to killOsama bin Laden . However, not enough was known about thecollateral damage effects of cruise missiles on mud huts. At the time there were estimated to be 100 women and children in the area, and in order to spare these civilians, the attack was not approved. [Ghost Wars ]ee also
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Casualty estimation
*Civilian casualties
*Emergency management References
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