Iraqi Health Ministry casualty survey

In January 2008 the Iraqi health minister, Dr Salih al-Hasnawi, reported the results of the "Iraq Family Health Survey" of 9,345 households across Iraq which was carried out in 2006 and 2007. It estimated 151,000 violence-related Iraqi deaths (95% uncertainty range, 104,000 to 223,000) from March 2003 through June 2006. [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7180055.stm "New study says 151,000 Iraqi dead"] . January 10, 2008. "BBC News Online."] [http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,2238250,00.html "151,000 civilians killed since Iraq invasion"] . By Sarah Boseley. January 10, 2008. "The Guardian".] [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/world/middleeast/10casualties.html?scp=1&sq=iraq+deaths+survey&st=nyt "W.H.O. Says Iraq Civilian Death Toll Higher Than Cited"] . By Lawrence K. Altman and Richard A. Oppel Jr.. January 10, 2008. "New York Times."] Employees of the Iraqi Health Ministry carried out the survey for the World Health Organization. [http://www.emro.who.int/iraq/ifhs.htm WHO country office in Iraq. Iraq Family Health Survey] . World Health Organization (WHO).] The results were published in the New England Journal of Medicine.cite journal |author=Alkhuzai AH, Ahmad IJ, Hweel MJ, Ismail TW, "et al." |title=Violence-Related Mortality in Iraq from 2002 to 2006 |journal=New England Journal of Medicine |volume=358 |issue=2 |pages=484–93 |year=2008 |pmid=18184950 |doi=10.1056/NEJMsa0707782 January 31, 2008. Supplementary Appendix provided by the authors: [http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMsa0707782/DC1] ]

Criticisms

Critical comments on this study appeared in the editorial section of the "New England Journal of Medicine" issue that contained the study. [http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMp0709003v1 "Estimating Excess Mortality in Post-Invasion Iraq"] . By Catherine A. Brownstein, M.P.H., and John S. Brownstein, Ph.D.. January 31, 2008. "New England Journal of Medicine."] While commending the efforts undertaken by the Iraqi Health Ministry team, the authors also note "substantial limitations" of the final estimate. According to them:

"The sampling frame was based on a 2004 count, but the population has been changing rapidly and dramatically because of sectarian violence, the flight of refugees, and overall population migration. Another source of bias in household surveys is underreporting due to the dissolution of some households after a death, so that no one remains to tell the former inhabitants' story. Mortality estimates that are derived from surveying deaths of siblings were also calculated, but this method may also be subject to such underreporting. ..."

Other criticisms leveled at the Iraq Health Ministry estimate relate to the fear of giving information about violence-related deaths to government interviewers who represented "one side of the conflict" and the reliance on Iraq Body Count's data in dangerous areas (Anbar and Nineveh provinces and parts of Baghdad). [http://www.workers.org/2008/world/iraq_0124/ "How many civilian deaths in Iraq since invasion?"] . By John Catalinotto. January 18, 2008. "Workers World."]

In a January 11, 2008 article Les Roberts is quoted:

"They roughly found a steady rate of violence from 2003 to 2006. Baghdad morgue data, Najaf burial data, Pentagon attack data, and our data all show a dramatic increase over 2005 and 2006." [ [http://www.accuracy.org/newsrelease.php?articleId=1627 "Lancet Study Author Assesses New Report on Iraqi Death Toll"] . January 11, 2008. Institute for Public Accuracy.]

John Tirman stated in a January 21, 2008 "AlterNet" article:

"Interviewers identified themselves as employees of the Ministry of Health, then under the control of Shiite cleric Moktada al Sadr. Those interviewed, therefore, would be wary of saying a brother or son or husband had been killed by violence, fearing retribution. And, indeed, there are nonviolent categories in the survey that suggest just such equivocation: 'Unintentional injuries' would equal about 40 percent of the death-by-violence toll, for example. Road accidents were ten times their pre-war totals-if someone is run off a highway by a U.S. convoy, is that a 'nonviolent' death?" [ [http://www.alternet.org/story/74263/ "Right-Wingers Can't Cover Up Iraq's Death Toll Catastrophe"] . By John Tirman. January 21, 2008. "AlterNet." ]

Excess deaths

Les Roberts, co-author of the Lancet study, said Friday, January 10, 2008:

"The NEJM article found a doubling of mortality after the invasion, we found a 2.4-fold increase. Thus, we roughly agree on the number of excess deaths. The big difference is that we found almost all the increase from violence, they found one-third of the increase from violence. ..."

"They roughly found a steady rate of violence from 2003 - 2006. Baghdad morgue data, Najaf burial data, and our data all show a dramatic increase over 2005 and 2006. ..."

"It is likely that people would be unwilling to admit violent deaths to the study workers who were government employees. ..."

"Finally, their data suggests one-sixth of deaths over the occupation through June 2006 were from violence. Our data suggests a majority of deaths were from violence. The morgue and graveyard data I have seen is more in keeping with our results." [http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=40758 "IRAQ: Civilian Deaths Massive by Any Measure"] . By Haider Rizvi. January 11, 2008. "Inter Press Service News Agency."] [http://www.accuracy.org/newsrelease.php?articleId=1627 "Lancet Study Author Assesses New Report on Iraqi Death Toll"] . January 11, 2008. "Institute for Public Accuracy."]

John Tirman (February 14, 2008) in "Editor and Publisher" wrote:

:"Yet another, a much larger house-to-house survey was conducted by the Iraq Ministry of Health (MoH). This also found a sizable mortality figure—400,000 “excess deaths” (the number above the pre-war death rate), but estimated 151,000 killed by violence. The period covered was the same as the survey published in The Lancet, but was not released until January 2008."

:"The ORB results were almost totally ignored in the American press, and the MoH numbers, which did get one-day play, were covered incompletely. Virtually no newspaper report dug into the data tables of the Iraqi MoH report, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, for that total excess mortality figure, or to ask why the MoH report showed a flat rate for killing throughout the war when every other account shows sharp increases through 2005 and 2006. The logical explanation for this discrepancy is that people responding to interviewers from the government, and a ministry controlled by Moktada al Sadr, would not want to admit that their loved one died by violence. There were, instead, very large numbers of dead by road accidents and “unintentional injuries.” The American press completely missed this." [ [http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/columns/shoptalk_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003711142 "Counting Iraqi Casualties -- and a Media Controversy"] . By John Tirman. February 14, 2008. "Editor and Publisher."]

Earlier Iraqi Health Minister estimate in November 2006

In early November 2006 Iraq's Health Minister Ali al-Shemari said that he estimated between 100,000 and 150,000 people had been killed since the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion. [http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2006/11/11/2003335773 "Iraqi death toll estimates go as high as 150,000"] . "Taipei Times." Nov 11, 2006.] [http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/11/09/europe/EU_GEN_Austria_Iraqis_Killed.php "Iraqi health minister estimates as many as 150,000 Iraqis killed by insurgents"] . "International Herald Tribune." Nov. 9, 2006.] [ [http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/11/09/iraq/main2165206.shtml "Official: 150,000 Iraqis Killed Since 2003"] . "CBS News." November 9, 2006.] The "Taipei Times" reported on his methodology: "Al-Shemari said on Thursday [Nov. 9, 2006] that he based his figure on an estimate of 100 bodies per day brought to morgues and hospitals -- though such a calculation would come out closer to 130,000 in total."

The "Washington Post" reported: "As al-Shemari issued the startling new estimate, the head of the Baghdad central morgue said Thursday he was receiving as many as 60 violent death victims each day at his facility alone. Dr. Abdul-Razzaq al-Obaidi said those deaths did not include victims of violence whose bodies were taken to the city's many hospital morgues or those who were removed from attack scenes by relatives and quickly buried according to Muslim custom." [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/10/AR2006111000164.html "Iraqi Official: 150,000 Civilians Dead"] . "Washington Post." Steven R. Hurst. Nov. 10, 2006.]

From a November 9, 2006 "International Herald Tribune" article:

"Each day we lost 100 persons, that means per month 3,000, per year it's 36,000, plus or minus 10 percent," al-Shemari said. "So by three years, 120,000, half year 20,000, that means 140,000, plus or minus 10 percent," he said, explaining how he came to the figures. "This includes all Iraqis killed — police, ordinary people, children," he said, adding that people who were kidnapped and later found dead were also included in his estimate. He said the figures were compiled by counting bodies brought to "forensic institutes" or hospitals.

From the November 11, 2006 "Taipei Times" article:

An official with the ministry also confirmed the figure yesterday [Nov. 10, 2006] , but later said that the estimated deaths ranged between 100,000 and 150,000. "The minister was misquoted. He said between 100,000-150,000 people were killed in three-and-a-half years," the official said.

See also

*Council of Ministers of Iraq
*Casualties of the Iraq War. An overview of many casualty estimates.
*Iraq War. Infobox there has the most up-to-date casualty figures.
*Lancet surveys of Iraq War casualties
*ORB survey of Iraq War casualties

References