Risk analysis (Business)

Risk analysis (Business)

Risk analysis is a technique to identify and assess factors that may jeopardize the success of a project or achieving a goal. This technique also helps to define preventive measures to reduce the probability of these factors from occurring and identify countermeasures to successfully deal with these constraints when they develop to avert possible negative effects on the competitiveness of the company.

One of the more popular methods to perform a risk analysis in the computer field is called Facilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP).

Facilitated Risk Analysis Process

FRAP analyzes one system, application or segment of business processes at time.

FRAP believe that additional efforts to develop precisely quantified risks are not cost effective because:
* such estimates are time consuming
* risk documentation becomes too voluminous for practical use
* specific loss estimates are generally not needed to determine if controls are needed.

After identifying and categorizing risks, The Team identifies the controls that could metigate the risk. The decision for what controls are needed lies with the business Manager.The team's conclusions as to what risks exists and what controls needed are documented along with a related action plan for control implimentation.

Three of the most important risks a software company faces are unexpected changes in revenue and costs from those budgeted and amount of specialization of the software planned. Risks that affect revenues can be unanticipated competition, privacy, intellectual property right problems, and unit sales that are less than forecast; unexpected development costs also create risk that can be in the form of more rework than anticipated, security holes, and privacy invasions. [cite journal
author=Messerschmitt, D. G. and C. Szyperski|title=Marketplace Issues in Software Planning and Design|journal=IEEE Software|volume=21|issue=3|month=May/June|year=2004|pages=62–70|doi=10.1109/MS.2004.1293074

Narrow specialization of software with a large amount of research and development expenditures can lead both business and technological risks since specialization does not lead to lower unit costs of software. [cite journal
author=Rao, P.M., and J. A. Klein|title=Growing importance of marketing strategies for the software industry|journal=Industrial marketing management|volume=23|issue=1|month=February|year=1994|pages=29–37|doi=10.1016/0019-8501(94)90024-8
] Combined with the decrease in the potential customer base, specialization risk can be significant for a software firm. After probabilities of scenarios have been calculated with risk analysis, the process of risk management can be applied to help manage the risk.

Methods like Applied Information Economics add to and improve on risk analysis methods by introducing procedures to adjust subjective probabilities, compute the value of additional information and to use the results in part of a larger portfolio management problem.

See also

*Benefit risk
*Cost risk
*Optimism bias
*Reference class forecasting


*cite news|author=Doug Hubbard|year=1998|title=Hurdling Risk|publisher=CIO Magazine

External links

* [http://www.solver.com/risk-analysis/ Risk Analysis Overview and Tutorial - solver.com]
* [http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/nistpubs/800-30/sp800-30.pdf information Risk Analysis is GOOD!]
* [http://gunston.gmu.edu/healthscience/730/default.asp Decision Analysis in Health Care] Online course from George Mason University providing lectures, information, and tools for risk analysis in health care settings.
* [http://www.vosesoftware.com/ModelRiskHelp/index.htm#Introduction_to_risk_analysis.htm An introduction to risk analysis - vosesoftware.com]

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