Straw polls for the Democratic Party 2008 presidential nomination

Numerous straw polls were held for the Democratic Party's 2008 United States presidential nomination. Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama lead all Democratic candidates in total straw poll victories.

The following sections collect local-event-based public straw polls where American voters selected among Democratic candidates. In event-based polls, like the election itself, public response is generally widely solicited for a particular event or registration process; the sample represents only willing, eligible people who become aware of the process through advertising and choose to enter, and sometimes an event fee is paid. By contrast, in demographic polls (such as the Democratic opinion polls), through a private random selection process, a subset of the target public is chosen as statistically representative, and individual responses are solicited, generally by phone; the sample represents only willing, eligible people from a statistical cross-section of the voter base. Demographic polls are regarded as more statistically accurate pictures of public opinion, while straw polls provide important interactive dialogue among movements, reflecting trends like organization and motivation. [cite web|url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21209617|title=Vote on the Michigan Republican debate|publisher=MSNBC|accessdate=2008-01-10] [cite web|first=John|last=Harwood|url=http://www.cnbc.com/id/21270546|title=My Open Letter To Ron Paul Supporters|date=2007-10-12|accessdate=2008-01-10|publisher=CNBC]

Democratic straw poll results

Because varying presentation methods of the same statistics can subjectively affect perceived results, several reasonable presentation methods are contrasted below. Except for the candidate list and narrative presentation, only the active registered multistate Democratic campaigns as of January 3 2008 (the first primary) are considered.

Candidates

The following official and potential 2008 candidates have appeared in Democratic straw poll results: Jared Ball, Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Barbara Boxer, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Russ Feingold, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Cynthia McKinney, Frank Moore, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack, Mark Warner. The category "Other" includes all other straw poll responses (undecided, blank, fictitious, invalid, etc.) and is treated as an additional candidate for ranking purposes.

Recent winners map

Each state and D.C. has been colored to represent its last straw poll winner.cite web|url=http://www.ronpaul2008.com/snippets/37/ron-paul-straw-poll-results/|title=Ron Paul Straw Poll Results] State coloring is not necessarily representative of primary or general election results in the state since many straw polls are smaller, local events, often conducted months before the primary. The numbers of states in which each candidate has won the state's latest straw poll are as follows:

1. Barack Obama (9)

2. Hillary Clinton (4)

3. John Edwards (3)

4. Chris Dodd (1)

5. Joe Biden, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Bill Richardson (0)

Narrative

The following 33 poll results (including 10 multiparty polls) are sorted by U.S. state. Where data is incomplete, it reflects all data available at source.cite web|url=http://www.usastrawpolls.com|title=Straw Poll Archive - Republican Democratic Straw Polls - 2008 Election] cite web|url=http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/StrawPolls.phtml|title=Election 2008 - Straw Polls] cite web|url=http://race42008.com/category/straw-polls|publisher=Race42008.com|title=Straw Polls]

Arizona

Idaho

Maryland

Nebraska

Oregon

Vermont

Multiparty

Raw data

Data suitable for spreadsheet import (letters represent hexadecimal-plus characters).

Head-to-head

Records of wins, losses, and ties grouped by the Condorcet method.cite news|url=http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=49415|title=Ron Paul Now Beats all Candidates Head-to-Head in Straw Polls|publisher=Free Market News Network] cite news|url=http://www.charlotteconservative.com/index.php/2007/09/ron-paul-straw-polls/|title=Ron Paul Straw Polls]

1. Obama beats Biden 16-1, Clinton 15-11-2, Dodd 12-1, Edwards 22-6, Gravel 10-0, Kucinich 16-1-1, Richardson 15-1-1 (7 wins)

2. Clinton beats Biden 16-0-1, Dodd 12-1, Edwards 21-6, Gravel 10-0, Kucinich 14-2, Richardson 17-0-1 (6 wins)

3. Edwards beats Biden 15-1-1, Dodd 11-1-1, Gravel 9-1, Kucinich 14-1-2, Richardson 15-3 (5 wins)

4. Kucinich beats Dodd 9-1-1, Gravel 9-1, Richardson 7-6, ties Biden 6-6-1 (3.5 wins)

5. Richardson beats Biden 11-3-1, Dodd 11-0-1, Gravel 9-0-1 (3 wins)

6. Biden beats Dodd 7-2-4, Gravel 7-1-2, ties Kucinich 6-6-1 (2.5 wins)

7. Dodd beats Gravel 4-3-2 (1 win)

8. Gravel beats none (0 wins)

Total wins

Total number of first-place finishes.

1. Obama (10)

2. Clinton (9)

3. Edwards (3)

4. Dodd (1)

5. Biden, Gravel, Kucinich, Richardson (0)

Win-place

Total number of top 2 finishes.cite news|url=http://thecaseforronpaul.com/SP.aspx|title=Straw Polls]

1. Obama 10-11 (21)

2. Clinton 9-7 (16)

3. Edwards 3-5 (8)

4. Kucinich 0-2 (2)

5. Dodd 1-0 (1)

6. Biden 0-0, Gravel 0-0, Richardson 0-0 (0)

Win-place-show

Total number of top 3 finishes.cite web|url=http://ok4ronpaul.ashlux.com/wiki/index.php?title=2008_Presidential_GOP_straw_poll_results|title=2008 Presidential GOP straw poll results]

1. Obama 10-11-4 (25)

2. Clinton 9-7-7 (23)

3. Edwards 3-5-10 (18)

4. Kucinich 0-2-2 (4)

5. Richardson 0-0-2 (2)

6. Dodd 1-0-0 (1)

7. Biden 0-0-0, Gravel 0-0-0 (0)

Olympic ratings

Top 3 finishes with 3 points for win, 2 for place, 1 for show.

1. Obama 10-11-4 (54)

2. Clinton 9-7-7 (48)

3. Edwards 3-5-10 (29)

4. Kucinich 0-2-2 (6)

5. Dodd 1-0-0 (3)

6. Richardson 0-0-2 (2)

7. Biden 0-0-0, Gravel 0-0-0 (0)

NASCAR ratings

100 for win, 98 for place, 96 for show, etc., 0 if absent. This rating gives a high weight to total poll presences.cite web|url=http://isilion.blogsome.com/2007/08/19/85/|publisher=Isilion|title=Scoring 2007 Republican Straw Poll Results]

Among 9 polls with no absences: Clinton 844, Obama 842, Edwards 808, Kucinich 774, Richardson 766, Biden 740, Dodd 722, Gravel 720.

Among 12 polls with up to 1 absent: Obama 1140, Clinton 1138, Edwards 1092, Richardson 1044, Kucinich 1036, Biden 1010, Dodd 884, Gravel 806.

Among 13 polls with up to 2 absent: Clinton 1238 (tie), Obama 1238 (tie), Edwards 1186, Richardson 1136, Biden 1096, Kucinich 1036, Dodd 968, Gravel 806.

Total votes

Votes (total 11807) in all cases where vote counts are reported.

1. Clinton 4299 (36.41%)

2. Obama 3610 (30.58%)

3. Edwards 2200 (18.63%)

4. Richardson 666 (5.64%)

5. Kucinich 638 (5.40%)

6. Biden 257 (2.18%)

7. Dodd 93 (0.79%)

8. Gravel 44 (0.37%)

Recent votes

Votes (total 6076) taken after the Blue Crab Maryland Straw Poll of 2007-03-07, in all cases where vote counts are reported. This compares recent with overall performance, and avoids giving undue weight to the results of the single largest poll.cite web|url=http://www.chrisbrunner.com/2007/08/27/cumulative-straw-poll-votes-since-iowa/|author=Brunner, Chris|title=Cumulative Straw Poll Votes Since Iowa]

1. Clinton 2099 (34.55%)

2. Obama 1700 (27.98%)

3. Edwards 1271 (20.92%)

4. Kucinich 511 (8.41%)

5. Richardson 286 (4.71%)

6. Biden 107 (1.76%)

7. Dodd 58 (0.95%)

8. Gravel 44 (0.72%)

References