Straw polls for the Republican Party 2008 presidential nomination

Numerous straw polls were held for the Republican Party's 2008 United States presidential nomination. The largest was the Ames Straw Poll held in Iowa on August 11 2007, won by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Other large straw polls included the Southern Republican Leadership poll (won by Senator Bill Frist in 2006), the CPAC straw poll and the Utah GOP Poll (won most recently by Mitt Romney), the Texas Straw Poll (won by Congressman Duncan Hunter), and the Ohio GOP Poll (won by Senator Fred Thompson). Congressman Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson lead all Republican candidates in total straw poll victories. John McCain, to whom a majority of Republican delegates are currently pledged, has had a relatively lower showing in straw polls.

The following sections collect local-event-based public straw polls where American voters selected among Republican candidates. In event-based polls, like the election itself, public response is generally widely solicited for a particular event or registration process; the sample represents only willing, eligible people who become aware of the process through advertising and choose to enter, and sometimes an event fee is paid. By contrast, in demographic polls (such as the Republican opinion polls), through a private random selection process, a subset of the target public is chosen as statistically representative, and individual responses are solicited, generally by phone; the sample represents only willing, eligible people from a statistical cross-section of the voter base. Demographic polls are regarded as more statistically accurate pictures of public opinion, while straw polls provide important interactive dialogue among movements, reflecting trends like organization and motivation. [cite web|url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21209617|title=Vote on the Michigan Republican debate|publisher=MSNBC|accessdate=2008-01-10] [cite web|first=John|last=Harwood|url=http://www.cnbc.com/id/21270546|title=My Open Letter To Ron Paul Supporters|date=2007-10-12|accessdate=2008-01-10|publisher=CNBC]

Republican straw poll results

Because varying presentation methods of the same statistics can subjectively affect perceived results, several reasonable presentation methods are contrasted below. Except for the candidate list and narrative presentation, only the active registered multistate Republican campaigns as of January 3 2008 (the first primary) are considered.

Candidates

The following official and potential 2008 candidates have appeared in Republican straw poll results: George Allen, Dick Armey, Haley Barbour, Sam Brownback, George W. Bush, Jeb Bush, Tom Coburn, Hugh Cort, John Cox, Jerry Curry, Susan Ducey, Bob Ehrlich, Cap Fendig, Steve Forbes, Bill Frist, Daniel Gilbert, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Robert Haines, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes, Stan Lockhart, John McCain, Ray McKinney, Candice Miller, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mike Pence, David Petraeus, George Phillies, Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice, Mitt Romney, Mark Sanford, Rick Santorum, Richard Michael Smith, Keith Sprankle, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, Tommy Thompson. The category "Other" includes all other straw poll responses (undecided, blank, fictitious, invalid, etc.) and is treated as an additional candidate for ranking purposes.

Recent winners map

Each state and D.C. has been colored to represent its last straw poll winner.cite web|url=http://www.ronpaul2008.com/snippets/37/ron-paul-straw-poll-results/|title=Ron Paul Straw Poll Results] State coloring is not necessarily representative of primary or general election results in the state since many straw polls are smaller, local events, often conducted months before the primary. The numbers of states in which each candidate has won the state's latest straw poll are as follows:

1. Ron Paul (17)

2. Mitt Romney (8)

3. Fred Thompson (6)

4. Rudy Giuliani (3)

5. Mike Huckabee (2), John McCain (1, plus District of Columbia)

7. Duncan Hunter (1)

8. Alan Keyes (0)

Narrative

The following 125 poll results (including 1 international poll and 9 multiparty polls) are sorted by U.S. state. Where data is incomplete, it reflects all data available at source.cite web|url=http://www.usastrawpolls.com|title=Straw Poll Archive - Republican Democratic Straw Polls - 2008 Election] cite web|url=http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/StrawPolls.phtml|title=Election 2008 - Straw Polls] cite web|url=http://race42008.com/category/straw-polls|publisher=Race42008.com|title=Straw Polls]

Alabama

California

District of Columbia

Idaho

Iowa

Maine

Michigan

Montana

New Hampshire

North Carolina

Oklahoma

South Carolina

Texas

Washington

International

Head-to-head

Records of wins, losses, and ties grouped by the Condorcet method.cite news|url=http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=49415|title=Ron Paul Now Beats all Candidates Head-to-Head in Straw Polls|publisher=Free Market News Network] cite news|url=http://www.charlotteconservative.com/index.php/2007/09/ron-paul-straw-polls/|title=Ron Paul Straw Polls]

1. Paul beats Giuliani 55-28, Huckabee 64-21-5, Hunter 52-13-3, Keyes 8-0, McCain 61-24-4, Romney 49-40-2, Thompson 46-31-1 (7 wins)

2. Thompson beats Giuliani 55-33-3, Huckabee 60-26, Hunter 56-14-3, Keyes 5-3, McCain 65-23-1, Romney 48-41-2 (6 wins)

3. Romney beats Giuliani 62-39-5, Huckabee 79-19-7, Hunter 69-7-3, Keyes 8-1, McCain 84-21-3 (5 wins)

4. Giuliani beats Huckabee 68-26-4, Hunter 59-17-2, Keyes 7-2, McCain 72-28-2 (4 wins)

5. Huckabee beats Hunter 58-18-1, Keyes 5-2-2, McCain 51-47-3 (3 wins)

6. McCain beats Hunter 42-28-6, Keyes 5-3-1 (2 wins)

7. Hunter beats Keyes 4-3 (1 win)

8. Keyes beats none (0 wins)

Total wins

Total number of first-place finishes.

1. Paul (46)

2. Romney, Thompson (25)

4. McCain (8)

5. Giuliani (7)

6. Huckabee (4)

7. Hunter (2)

8. Keyes (0)

Win-place

Total number of top 2 finishes.cite news|url=http://thecaseforronpaul.com/SP.aspx|title=Straw Polls]

1. Paul 46-13 (59)

2. Romney 25-27 (52)

3. Thompson 25-23 (48)

4. Giuliani 7-29 (36)

5. McCain 8-12 (20)

6. Huckabee 4-11 (15)

7. Hunter 2-2 (4)

8. Keyes 0-0 (0)

Win-place-show

Total number of top 3 finishes.cite web|url=http://ok4ronpaul.ashlux.com/wiki/index.php?title=2008_Presidential_GOP_straw_poll_results|title=2008 Presidential GOP straw poll results]

1. Romney 25-27-24 (76)

2. Paul 46-13-9 (68)

3. Giuliani 7-29-23 (59)

4. Thompson 25-23-10 (58)

5. McCain 8-12-12 (32)

6. Huckabee 4-11-14 (29)

7. Hunter 2-2-6 (10)

8. Keyes 0-0-2 (2)

Olympic ratings

Top 3 finishes with 3 points for win, 2 for place, 1 for show.

1. Paul 46-13-9 (173)

2. Romney 25-27-24 (153)

3. Thompson 25-23-10 (131)

4. Giuliani 7-29-23 (102)

5. McCain 8-12-12 (60)

6. Huckabee 4-11-14 (48)

7. Hunter 2-2-6 (16)

8. Keyes 0-0-2 (2)

NASCAR ratings

100 for win, 98 for place, 96 for show, etc., 0 if absent. This rating gives a high weight to total poll presences.cite web|url=http://isilion.blogsome.com/2007/08/19/85/|publisher=Isilion|title=Scoring 2007 Republican Straw Poll Results]

Among 7 polls with no absences: Paul 692, Huckabee 654, Thompson 652, Giuliani 648 (tie), Romney 648 (tie), McCain 624, Keyes 618, Hunter 616.

Among 62 polls with up to 1 absent: Romney 5938, Thompson 5898, Paul 5892, Giuliani 5832, Huckabee 5720, McCain 5574, Hunter 5508, Keyes 618.

Among 87 polls with up to 2 absent: Romney 8364, Giuliani 8130, Thompson 7990, Huckabee 7912, McCain 7728, Paul 7502, Hunter 6688, Keyes 788.

Total votes

Votes (total 34101) in all cases where vote counts are reported.

1. Romney 10849 (31.814%)

2. Paul 6811 (19.973%)

3. Huckabee 5968 (17.501%)

4. Thompson 3574 (10.481%)

5. Giuliani 3159 (9.264%)

6. McCain 1926 (5.648%)

7. Hunter 1764 (5.173%)

8. Keyes 50 (0.147%)

Recent votes

Votes (total 19296) taken after the Ames Straw Poll of 2007-08-11, in all cases where vote counts are reported. This compares recent with overall performance, and avoids giving undue weight to the results of the single largest poll.cite web|url=http://www.chrisbrunner.com/2007/08/27/cumulative-straw-poll-votes-since-iowa/|author=Brunner, Chris|title=Cumulative Straw Poll Votes Since Iowa]

1. Paul 5096 (26.41%)

2. Romney 4006 (20.76%)

3. Huckabee 3032 (15.71%)

4. Thompson 2714 (14.07%)

5. Giuliani 2088 (10.82%)

6. McCain 1185 (6.14%)

7. Hunter 1127 (5.84%)

8. Keyes 48 (0.25%)

References