Ryanggang explosion

The Ryanggang explosion was a large explosion that took place in North Korea on September 9, 2004, in the northern province of Ryanggang. The nature and cause of the suspected explosion is the subject of speculation.

The suspected explosion

The suspected explosion was located near the town of Yongjo-ri (41°19'47"N 127°05'02"E) in the county of Kimhyŏngjik in Ryanggang. This is in a mountainous region, about 1.5 km above sea level. The explosion was about 30 km from the border with China. The area contains several military installations, including munitions factories and a secret underground military base suspected to contain a uranium enrichment plant. The Yongjori Missile Base was 10 km northeast of the explosion.

Early reports said that seismic activity had been detected early on September 9 2004, and this was correlated with a "strangely shaped cloud", suspected to be a mushroom cloud. Together these would indicate a large explosion. The date, September 9 2004, the 56th anniversary of the formation of North Korea, was taken as significant; North Korea has a history of making grand military gestures on significant dates. However, the original reports have been contradicted by later reports denying that there was any explosion.

The cloud, 3.5 km to 4 km (2 miles to 2.5 miles) in diameter, was observed by a reconnaissance satellite at 11:00 on September 9 2004. It's been rumored that a satellite image of the site was taken afterwards and it supposedly shows a crater. However, this image has yet to be shown.

Reaction

The incident wasn't reported internationally until September 12 2004, when the South Korean news agency Yonhap cited a source in Beijing, China, which said a mushroom cloud had been seen. Suspicion was raised by the fact that there was no mention of the explosion on internal North Korean media. North Korean news is little more than a mouthpiece for the ruling party, so unfavourable stories are commonly not broadcast at all; the Ryongchon disaster earlier in 2004 was reported only several days after the event.

There was immediate popular speculation that the explosion was nuclear in origin. United States Secretary of State Colin Powell said there was "no indication" that it was nuclear, and South Korea similarly said that it did not appear to be nuclear. It would be some days before the effects of a nuclear explosion would be unequivocally visible to apolitical authorities. It would not be possible to hide the nuclear nature of such an explosion for long, as the radioactive isotopes created by a nuclear explosion would be detectable to outside observers around the world.

From North Korea

North Korea initially denied that the explosion was nuclear. When prompted for an explanation, North Korea's foreign minister, Paek Nam-sun, officially stated that the explosion "was in fact the deliberate demolition of a mountain as part of a huge hydroelectric project". North Korea announced on September 13 2004 that the British ambassador, David Slinn, would be permitted to visit the site. Diplomats from the United Kingdom, Sweden, Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Mongolia visited what was purported to be the site on September 16 2004, and reported having seen a hydroelectric project under construction. However, South Korea said the diplomats had been in the wrong place, about 100 km from the suspected explosion site.

From South Korea

On September 17 2004, South Korean Vice Minister of unification Rhee Bong-jo claimed that there was no explosion at all at the purported site, saying the supposed mushroom cloud was a natural cloud formation (mushroom clouds form from many types of large explosions, not only nuclear detonations). On the same day the Korea Earthquake Research Center reported that the only seismic activity in Ryanggang province in the period in question was at 23:24 Korea Standard Time (UTC +9) on September 8 2004, at Mount Baekdu, about 100 km from the suspected blast site.

North Korean disarmament talks

At the time of the blast, North Korea was under pressure to again resume six-way diplomatic talks concerning its nuclear program with the United States, South Korea, the People's Republic of China, Russia, and Japan. North Korea was insisting on a delay before a fourth round of talks, citing recently-revealed South Korean nuclear research programs. On September 14 2004 a British envoy said that North Korea was still committed to the talks, but on September 27 2004 the KCNA (North Korea's state news agency) reported that resumption of the talks was out of the question until the United States made certain concessions. It is unclear what effects the explosion might have on the talks, if continued, or on the negotiations concerning resumption of the talks.

Since the initial days, there has been essentially no followup reporting in Western media.

On the 28th of September, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choi Su-heon announced at the United Nations General Assembly that it had turned plutonium from 8,000 spent fuel rods into nuclear weapons as a deterrent against the US nuclear threat. Six-nation talks on the nuclear issue, which were due to resume, were instead suspended. As of this date, analysts believed North Korea had ruled out further talks until after the United States presidential election in November 2008.

Cause

There has been a great deal of speculation on the nature of the incident. Hypotheses can be divided on several axes.

Things that could cause the physical phenomena observed:
*A large chemical explosive blast.
*A forest fire. The United States National Security Advisor, Condoleezza Rice, said "maybe it was ... some kind of forest fire". The Yonhap news agency also quoted a source suggesting a forest fire. However, forest fires don't leave craters or cause significant seismic events. (No image of any sorts presented to this date on these so called craters.)
*A natural cumulonimbus cloud formation.

If there were an explosion, the main possible causes:
*North Korea's official explanation of demolition for a hydroelectric project.
*A nuclear weapon test or demonstration. There had been reported recent intelligence that North Korea might have been planning its first nuclear bomb test, and the significant date lends credence to this hypothesis. However, it would be strange for North Korea to then deny it, and international officials have said that it does not appear to have been a nuclear explosion. (Later updates in intelligence suggested that the test planning may have not been what it appeared to be.)
*A nuclear accident. Likewise, it has been denied that the explosion was nuclear.
*A large chemical explosive blast, to calibrate for a later nuclear test.
*Explosion of a munitions dump or of explosives in a munitions factory.

Finally, another way to divide up explosion hypotheses is by how intentional it was:
*Intended by North Korea.
*Accidental. North Korea's failing economy has made its industry accident-prone, as seen in the Ryongchon disaster earlier in 2004.
*Enemy action from a foreign state. North Korea has plenty of enemies who would be pleased by the destruction of a suspected uranium enrichment plant.
*Military/terrorist action connected with an internal power struggle.

With this dearth of solid information, the reactions from North Korea and other states form part of the reasoning of most interesting hypotheses. There is little solid information to go on: most statements are hedged, no one has been caught unequivocally lying, and the stakes are potentially high enough for all interested states to hide the truth from the public. The only really certain conclusion that can be drawn is that those states in the know are united in not wishing to make a public diplomatic incident out of whatever has happened.

North Korea's claim to possess nuclear weapons on February 10, 2005 gives the nuclear testing or accident hypotheses some credibility. However no neighboring nations have claimed any detection of radioactive isotopes which would be characteristic of either. On October 9, 2006, North Korea claimed to have tested its first nuclear weapon (see 2006 North Korean nuclear test for more details).

ee also

*List of Korea-related topics
*North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
*Behind Enemy Lines II (direct-to-video action video based of the enemy action theory of the explosion.)

External links

* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/world/asia-pacific/3648794.stm BBC News: N. Korea blast 'was not nuclear']
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/world/asia-pacific/3648988.stm BBC News: UK demands N. Korea explain blast]
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/world/asia-pacific/3650702.stm BBC News: N. Korea allows blast site visit]
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/world/asia-pacific/3653990.stm BBC News: N. Korea 'will talk' says UK envoy]
* [http://www.kuro5hin.org/story/2004/9/12/17288/0278 Nuclear Test in North Korea?] (commentary suggesting that the blast was in fact nuclear)
* [http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/headline/world/2799732 HoustonChronicle.com: North Korea: Talks depend on South]
* [http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200409/200409170025.html Digital Chosunilbo: Signs Indicate No Explosion Occurred in N. Korea's Kim Hyong-jik County]
* [http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-09/17/content_375526.htm China Daily: No explosion at all]
* [http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2004/200409/news09/28.htm#6 KCNA Blasts U.S. for Overturning Groundwork of Six-party Talks]