Great Storm of 1987

The Great Storm of 1987 occurred on the night of 15 October to 16 October 1987, when an unusually strong weather system caused winds to hit much of southern England and northern France. It was the worst storm to hit England since the Great Storm of 1703 (284 years earlier) and was responsible for the deaths of 23 people in England and France combined (19 in England, at least 4 in France). [ [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7044050.stm BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Lessons learned from Great Storm ] ]

According to the Beaufort scale of wind intensities, this storm had winds of hurricane force, however, the term "hurricane" refers to tropical cyclones originating in the North Atlantic or North Pacific. Hurricanes have a very different wind profile and distribution, and significantly higher precipitation levels. The storm had an air pressure equal to that of a Category 3 hurricane, and windspeeds equal to a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale,which doesn't apply to this system, because it was not a hurricane, and as such, would never be measured or risk assessed by that scale, hence the significant difference in rated intensities between windspeed and barometric pressure.

Although the storm was declared a rare event, expected only to happen on average every several hundred years, the Burns' Day storm hit the United Kingdom in January 1990, less than three years later and with comparable intensity.

Origins

The storm originated from a cold front in the Bay of Biscay that met with a warm front headed north from Africa. When the two systems collided, a severe low pressure front developed with a central pressure of 958 mbar (comparable to a Category 3 hurricane, which typically has a central pressure between 945 and 964 mbar). How such a low pressure system developed on this particular occasion has not been fully explained. One theory, not established or generally accepted, is that it might have been a result of the jet stream coming from America in the wake of Hurricane Floyd (1987) and exceptionally warm weather of the Bay of Biscay.

Effects

England

The storm made landfall in Cornwall before tracking northeast towards Devon and then over the Midlands, going out to sea via The Wash. The strongest gusts, of up to 100 knots, were recorded along the southeastern edge of the storm, hitting mainly Essex and Kent.

The storm caused substantial damage over much of England, downing some 14 million trees (including six of the seven famous oak trees in Sevenoaks [cite news |title=Sevenoaks becomes Oneoaks|url=http://www.sevenoaks-life.co.uk/content/view/166/89/] and most of the trees making up Chanctonbury Ring), blocking roads and railways and leaving widespread structural damage to buildings. Several hundred thousand people were left without power, which was not fully restored until more than two weeks later. Local electric utility officials later said they lost more wires in that single storm than they had in the preceding decade. At sea, as well as many small boats being wrecked and a ship capsized at Dover and a Sealink cross-channel ferry, the MV "Hengist", was driven ashore at Folkestone, and the transmitting mast of the Radio Caroline radio ship the "Ross Revenge" sustained apparently minor damage only to collapse in a force 10 gale the following month. (Even though the storm caused severe disruption on board the ship, Radio Caroline was able to continue broadcasting for most of the day during the storm, although taped music was used, as the record decks were unable to function due to the movement of the ship caused by the storm). When the storm was at its most intense stage 3 whales were blown on to dry land.Fact|date=November 2007

In London, many of the Plane trees lining the streets were blown down overnight, blocking roads and crushing parked cars. Building construction scaffolding and billboards had collapsed in many places and many buildings had been damaged. The following morning the BBC television centre at Wood Lane in west London was unable to function due to a power failure and the television breakfast-time news was broadcast from a single position emergency studio in central London, reinforcing an impression of national emergency. Most public transport in the capital was not functioning and people were advised not to try to go to work.

22 lives in total were lost in England and the storm cost the insurance industry £2 bn; this makes it the second most expensive UK weather event. [cite news |title=UK storm payout 'may hit £350m' |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6380123.stm |work=news.bbc.co.uk |publisher=BBC |date=2007-02-20 |accessdate=2007-02-20 |quote=The "great storm" of 1987, which cost the industry £2bn, was the second most expensive. ] Peak wind velocities were in the early hours of the morning, and this probably reduced the death toll.

The storm hit the Isle of Wight at 2am and Shanklin Pier on the south east side of the island was broken into three pieces as a result of mountainous waves. Plans to rebuild were abandoned and the rest of the pier was demolished by contractors shortly afterwards. A monument now stands in front of what used to be the pier entrance.

There are theories that effects from the Storm were a contributing cause of the Black Monday stock exchange collapse.

France

The area of Bretagne and the Cotentin Peninsula of Normandy were affected by the storm, where 15 people were killed.Fact|date=October 2007

1.25 million homes were left without electricity supply and water and a quarter of Bretagne's forest was destroyed. The total damage was estimated at ₣23 billion.

The church at Concarneau was damaged.

Criticism of the Met Office

In the immediate aftermath the Met Office was severely criticized by journalists for failing to forecast the storm correctly. Interviewing a dishevelled Ian McCaskill on "BBC News" on 16 October 1987, the newsreader Michael Buerk made the remark "a fat lot of good you guys were last night", which was typical of the media response at the time.

The Met Office conducted an internal inquiry , scrutinised by two independent assessors, and a number of recommendations were made. Chiefly, observational coverage of the atmosphere over the ocean to the south and west of the UK was improved by increasing the quality and quantity of observations from ships, aircraft, buoys and satellites. Continued refinements were made to the computer models used in forecasting and changes were made in the training of forecasters.

In addition reforms in the way the Met Office reports warnings of severe weather were implemented, leading to substantially more warnings being issued in the future. Further deployment of improved tracking devices and improvements in the computer model simulations were supported by the purchase of an additional Cray supercomputer. Warnings for the Burns' Day storm three years later were accurate and on time.

Michael Fish

BBC meteorologist Michael Fish drew sharp criticism for reporting several hours before the storm hit, in seemingly flippant fashion:

"Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way; well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't, but having said that, actually, the weather will become very windy, but most of the strong winds, incidentally, will be down over Spain and across into France." [ [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqs1YXfdtGE YouTube footage of Michael Fish] ]

Fish has subsequently claimed that his comments about a hurricane had nothing to do with the UK; they referred to Florida, USA, and were linked to a news story that immediately preceded the weather bulletin, but had been so widely repeated out of context that the British public remains convinced he was referring to the approaching storm. According to Michael Fish, the woman in question was actually a colleague's mother who was about to go on holiday in the Caribbean and had called regarding Hurricane Floyd to see if it would be safe to travel. [cite web |url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/bbcweather/forecasters/michael_fish_1987storm.shtml |title=Michael Fish and the 1987 Storm |accessdate=2007-02-20 |format=HTML |work=BBC Weather |publisher=www.bbc.co.uk ]

Fish went on to warn viewers in the UK to "batten down the hatches", saying it would be "very windy" across the south of England, but predicted that the storm would move further south along the English Channel and the British mainland would escape the worst effects. The remainder of his warning is frequently left out of re-runs which only adds to the public's misrepresentation of his forecasting that evening.

His analysis has been defended by weather experts. In particular, the lack of a weather ship in the Southwest Approaches, due to Met Office cutbacks, meant the only manner of tracking the storm was by using satellite data (automatic buoys had not been deployed at the time).

Ironically, earlier forecasts as far back as the preceding weekend had correctly identified that gale force winds would affect Southern England. However later runs of the model had indicated a more southerly track for the low pressure system, incorrectly indicating that the strongest winds would be confined to Northern and Central France.

Interestingly the French meteorological office used a different computer weather model to the British which had more accurately predicted the severity of the storm in the Channel.

Aftermath

A great deal of effort and money was put into the post-storm "clean-up", when in hindsight it would have been better to let nature re-assert itself. A few people, such as the writer Oliver Rackham and the charity Common Ground were active in trying to prevent unnecessary destruction of trees which, though fallen, were still living [cite web |url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2007/10/13/eastorm113.xml&page=1 |title=1987 Great Storm: Terrible blow, not a knockout, Daily Telegraph, 13 October 2007] [Oliver Rackham, 'Trees & Woodland in the British Landscape' p. 202-3 (Dent, 1990)] .

ee also

* List of natural disasters in the United Kingdom
* Great Storm of 1703
* Kyrill
* European windstorm
* European windstorm names
* Sting jet
* Flood in Appley Bridge, Lancashire, England 1987
* Black Monday (1987)

References

External links

* [http://www.meto.gov.uk/education/secondary/students/1987.html Met Office report]
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/october/16/newsid_2533000/2533219.stm BBC news report, "On This Day", including video]