Iowa Democratic caucuses, 2008

The 2008 Democratic caucuses in Iowa occurred on January 3, 2008, and were the state caucuses of the Democratic Party in Iowa. It was the first election for the Democrats of the 2008 presidential election. Of the eight major Democratic presidential candidates, U.S. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois received the most support, making him the first African American person to carry the caucus. [cite news |first=Julianne |last=Shepherd |title=Barack Obama Takes Iowa Caucuses; Senator Could Become America's First Black President |url=http://www.vibe.com/news/news_headlines/2008/01/barack_obama_wins_iowa/ |work=Vibe |date=2008-01-04 |accessdate=2008-03-05] John Edwards came in second and Hillary Clinton came in third, though Clinton received more delegates than Edwards. Campaigning had begun as early as two years before the event.

The caucuses in Iowa have historically been the first held in the United States. The caucus marked the traditional and formal start of the delegate selection process for the 2008 United States presidential election, and the process in which members of the Democratic political party gathered to make policy decisions.cite web |title= About the Iowa Caucuses |work=Iowa Caucus 2008 |publisher= Iowa Department of Economic Development |year=2007 |url=http://www.iowacaucus.org/iacaucus.html |accessdate=2008-01-03]

Iowa state law mandates that its caucus must be held at least eight days before any other meeting, caucus, or primary for the presidential nominating process. Therefore, the Iowa caucuses have always been traditionally the leading state in the nominating process. Not only did controversy brew between the candidates, but the caucuses themselves drew a large amount of media attention. The decisions of the Iowans alone could affect the rest of the campaign season. [cite web |first=Amy |last=Best |title=Iowa Caucuses: The Importance of Being First. |work= The Cube |publisher=Iowa Department of Economic Development |accessdate=2008-02-01 |url= http://www.smartcareermove.com/cube/columndesc.asp?idQuestion=118&columnistUserID=68641 ]

Process

The caucuses followed the regular procedures of the Democratic Party process. Any voter who was a registered Democrat and a resident of Iowa was eligible to participate in the event. Individuals could have chosen to register or change their party affiliation at the door. It was estimated that 60% of the caucus goers would have attended the caucuses for the first time. All of the caucus goers met in public buildings or schools in their respective precincts and divided themselves into groups; each group represented a candidate. The voting was done publicly (viva voce).cite web |first=Kathy |last=Gill |title= How Do The Iowa Caucuses Work? |work= About.com US Politics |publisher= About |url= http://uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections/tp/how_caucuses_work.htm |year=2008 |accessdate=2008-01-09] To be viable, each preference group must have had at least 15% of the caucus goers' votes. If a candidate received less than 15% of the caucus goers' votes, then the supporters of that non-viable candidate had 30 minutes to join a viable candidate's group, join another non-viable candidate's group to make the candidate viable, join an uncommitted group, or choose not to be counted as a voter.

In Iowa, there were 1,784 precincts for the caucuses. Each viable preference group at each caucus elected a certain number of delegates proportional to the group's size that would represent the candidate at the county conventions. There are 99 counties in Iowa, and their Democratic conventions would take place on March 15, 2008. At these conventions, a subset of delegates would be chosen to attend the district, then state conventions. At the state convention on June 14, 2008, a subset of delegates would be chosen to attend the national convention which starts on August 25, 2008. As in the precinct caucuses, the pledged delegates to the national convention will proportionally represent the candidates compared to the results of the state caucus.

Delegate allocation

The delegate allocation to the national convention is as follows: 29 district delegates will proportionally represent a candidate's support at each Congressional District.cite web |title=How To Become A Delegate |work=The 2008 Democratic National Convention |publisher=2008 Democratic National Convention Committee |year=2008 |url= http://www.demconvention.com/a/2007/03/how_to_become_a.html |accessdate=2008-01-15] The First Congressional District receives six pledged delegates, the Second Congressional District receives seven, the Third Congressional District receives six, the Fourth Congressional District receives six, and the Fifth Congressional District receives four. All of these pledged delegates represent each Congressional District independently; they are not affected by the results of the state convention.cite web |last=Berg-Andersson |first=Richard E. |title= Iowa Democratic Delegation 2008 |publisher=The Green Papers |date=2008-05-15 |url=http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/IA-D.phtml |accessdate=2008-05-16]

At the state convention, on the other hand, sixteen pledged delegates proportionally represent the candidates' support. Ten of these delegates will be designated as at-large, meaning that they represent the entire state as a whole. The other six will be referred to as "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" (PLEO). These may include members of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), members of the House and the Senate, the governor, and former party leaders. Not all of the PLEOs are pledged, but if they are, they will represent the state as a whole along with the at-large delegates. In total, the Democratic presidential candidates will be allocated a total of forty-five pledged delegates, depending on their support in each district and in the state.

Twelve delegates that do not represent caucus results will be sent to the National Convention; they are referred to as "unpledged". Eleven of them are PLEOs, which include six members of the DNC, one Senator, three Representatives, and one Governor. Because these unpledged delegates high profiles are usually high profile elected officials, they are referred to as "superdelegates". [cite news |last=The Associated Press |title= What Are Delegates? |url=http://news.aol.com/elections/story/_a/what-are-delegates/20071126122909990001 |work=AOL News| date=2007-12-20 |accessdate=2008-01-24] The other unpledged delegate is an "add-on" delegate, who is selected at the state convention.

While this process lasts for a period of approximately five months, the results of the state caucus are usually predictable by the results of the precincts' caucuses combined. Therefore, the results of the precinct caucuses provides a good measurement of Iowa's delegation to the national convention.

Pre-caucus polls

Before the caucuses, the Des Moines Register reported that during a poll of 800 likely Democratic caucus goers from December 27 to December 30, 2007, the candidates had the following results:
*Barack Obama - 32%
*Hillary Clinton - 25%
*John Edwards - 24%
*Bill Richardson - 6%
*Joe Biden - 4%
*Christopher Dodd - 2%
*Dennis Kucinich - 1%
*Mike Gravel - 0%
*Not sure/Uncommitted - 6%The above results have a margin of sampling error of ±3.5%.cite news |first= Thomas |last=Beaumont |title= New Iowa Poll: Obama widens lead over Clinton |work=DesMoinesRegister.com |publisher= Des Moines Register and Tribune Company |date= 2008-01-01 |url=http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080101/NEWS09/301010015/-1/iowapoll07 |accessdate= 2008-01-03]

Barack Obama's results in the opinion polls rose from 28% in the Des Moines Register's poll in late November 2007. This was in part a result of a "dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents." Hillary Clinton remained at a constant 25%, while John Edwards was almost unchanged when his ratings increased to 24% from 23% in November. Approximately one-third of likely caucus goers said that they could have been persuaded to choose a different candidate before the caucuses.

The December results of the Des Moines Register's poll also showed a widened gap between the three-way contest for the lead—Clinton, Edwards, and Obama—and the rest of the Democratic candidates. No other Democrat received more than 6% support of caucus goers.

30% of the sample population from the Des Moines Register's poll said that a candidate's ability to bring about change in the United States was the most important to them. 27% of the population said that a candidate who would be most successful in unifying the country would have taken priority in their votes. Most caucus goers also said that Obama was strong in both of these areas. Having the experience and competence to lead was considered the most important aspect of a candidate by 18% of the sample population; Hillary Clinton was rated best on this trait. Only 6% of the sample population said that being best able to win the general election was the top priority; Hillary Clinton, again, was rated best on this trait.

Results

cite episode |title= ElectionCenter2008; Iowa Caucuses (Special Coverage) County Results |url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#val=IADEM1 |series=CNN |serieslink=CNN |network= CNN |airdate=2008-01-03 ] legend|#00FFFF|border=1px #AAAAAA solid

Caucus results

Caucus date: January 3, 2008

National pledged delegates determined: 0 (of 45)

District convention results

Convention date: April 26, 2008

National pledged delegates determined: 29 (of 45)

Economic impact

The economic impact of the 2004 Iowa Democratic caucuses was estimated at roughly $50 to $60 million. Considering the fact that the candidates from both the Democratic and Republican parties competitively raced for the nomination and an early start to the campaign season, the Iowa Department of Economic Development stated that the economic impact of the 2008 caucuses would be much greater than that of 2004. The caucuses also give the Iowa Department of Economic Development the opportunity to showcase its state's leaderhip role in renewable energy, manufacturing, and the biosciences, or to show the state's top ranking in the quality of life.

In addition, various trade officials, ambassadors, and economists came together on the same day of the caucuses at the World Trade Organization's Headquarters in Geneva to kick off their seventh year of their Doha round trade talks. Those who attended the meeting also closely watched the caucuses because the candidate who wins the United States presidency is going to be a major factor in international trade. Hillary Clinton has called for a "break" in international trade talks. John Edwards and Barack Obama, to a lesser extent, have expressed skepticism on the kinds of free-trade deals that are discussed at the Doha rounds. The Republicans with President George W. Bush, on the other hand, openly supported the trade agreements. [cite news |first=John W. |last=Miller |title= World Trade Talks in Geneva Keep One Eye on Iowa Caucus |work= The Wall Street Journal |date=2007-12-31]

ee also

* Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008
* Iowa caucuses
* Iowa Republican caucuses, 2008

References

External links

* [http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/ Caucus results from the Iowa Democratic Party]
* [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html Polling results from Real Clear Politics]
* [http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php Polling data from Pollster.com]
* [http://www.iowademocrats.org/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/1012213 Iowa Delegate Selection and Affirmative Action Plan]
* [http://creepysleepy.com/2007/12/15/creepy-sleepy-132-the-iowa-caucus-explained-analyzed-awesome/ Iowa Caucus Explained and Analyzed] in the Creepy Sleepy Show podcast
* [http://talkradionews.com/?s=iowa+caucus Covered using talk radio and social media] by the Talk Radio News Service
* [http://www.obamaiowavictory.com Complete Obama victory speech video and transcription in English, French and Spanish]