Hurricane Paul (2006)

Infobox Hurricane
Name=Hurricane Paul
Type=hurricane
Year=2006
Basin=EPac
Image location=Hurricane Paul 23 oct 2006 1500Z.jpg


Formed=October 21, 2006
Dissipated=October 26, 2006
1-min winds=90
Pressure=970
Da

Fatalities=4 direct
Areas=Oaxaca, Guerrero, Baja California Sur, Sinaloa
Hurricane season=2006 Pacific hurricane season

Hurricane Paul was a hurricane that ultimately struck Mexico as a tropical depression in October 2006. It developed from an area of disturbed weather on October 21, and slowly intensified as it moved into an area of warm waters and progressively decreasing wind shear. Paul attained hurricane status on October 23, and later that day it reached its peak intensity of convert|110|mi/h|km/h|-1|abbr=on, a strong Category 2 hurricane. A strong trough turned the hurricane to the north and northeast into an area of strong vertical shear, and Paul weakened to a tropical storm on October 24. It accelerated northeastward, and after passing a short distance south of Baja California Sur the low level circulation became decoupled from the rest of the convection. Paul weakened to a tropical depression on October 25 a short distance off the coast of Mexico, and after briefly turning away from the coast it made landfall on northwestern Sinaloa on October 26.

Paul was the third hurricane to threaten western Mexico in the season, the others being Hurricanes John and Lane. Rough surf killed two people along Baja California Sur, while flooding was reported in Sinaloa.

Meteorological history

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on October 4. It moved westward across the Atlantic Ocean without development, and entered the eastern Pacific Ocean on October 18. The next day, it combined with a previously existing area of disturbed weather, resulting in a large area of convection extending northward into southern Mexico.cite web|author=Jamie R. Rhome and Robert J. Berg|year=2006|title=Hurricane Paul Tropical Cyclone Report|publisher=National Hurricane Center|accessdate=2006-11-30|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-EP172006_Paul.pdf] The broad and disorganized system moved westward at 10 to 15 mph (16 to 24 km/h).cite web|author=Franklin|year=2006|title=Special Tropical Disturbance Statement|publisher=National Hurricane Center|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showthreaded.php/Cat/0/Number/649464/an/0/page/0] On October 20, the system developed an area of low pressure, and began to show signs of organization.cite web|author=Stewart|year=2006|title=October 20 Tropical Weather Outlook|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-P/2006102016.ABPZ20] It continued to organize, and developed into Tropical Depression Seventeen-E on October 21 while located about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo. Upon forming, the depression possessed a small, tight low-level circulation beneath a well-defined mid-level circulation. Easterly wind shear initially restricted upper-level outflow as the cyclone moved to the west, a motion due to a subtropical ridge to its north.cite web|author=Stewart|year=2006|title=Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion One|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.001.shtml?]

The cloud pattern of the depression quickly became better organized as a curved band developed around intensifying deep convection, and it is estimated the system intensified into Tropical Storm Paul just six hours after forming. Easterly wind shear exposed the low level circulation to the east of the area of deep convection, though Paul continued to intensify as it moved through an area of warm waters and progressively weakening wind shear.cite web|author=Avila|year=2006|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Two|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.002.shtml?] The low level circulation gradually became more embedded within the convection as the cloud pattern improved. Computer models had troubles in forecasting the future of the storm early in its life; the GFDL model forecast Paul to reach winds of 119 mph (191 km/h), while global models expected the system to dissipate in 48 to 72 hours.cite web|author=Avila|year=2006|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Six|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.003.shtml?] Early on October 22, wind shear began to decrease, which coincided with an increase of outflow on its eastern side.cite web|author=Beven|year=2006|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Four|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.004.shtml?] The storm temporarily degraded in appearancecite web|author=Franklin|year=2006|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Five|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.005.shtml?] as it turned to the northwest.cite web|author=Rhome & Pasch|year=2006|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Six|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.006.shtml?] However, shear sharply abated over Paul late on October 22, resulting in the storm quickly gaining organization and intensifying. An eye began to develop within the convection,cite web|author=Rhome & Pasch|year=2006|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Seven|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.007.shtml?] and Paul intensified into a hurricane early on October 23 .cite web|author=Avila|year=2006|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Eight|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.008.shtml?]

Located in an area of warm water temperatures and light wind shear, Hurricane Paul continued to intensify and organize; its well-defined eye was surrounded by a ring of deep convection while outflow remained strong to the north and south.cite web|author=Franklin|year=2006|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Nine|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.009.shtml?] On October 23, while located 465 miles (750 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Paul reached its peak intensity of 105 mph (165 km/h), a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. A large trough located off the west coast of California turned the hurricane to the north-northwest,cite web|author=Rhome & Pasch|year=2006|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Ten|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.010.shtml?] and later to the north. The combination of increasing shear and dry air quickly weakened Paulcite web|author=Rhome/Pasch|year=2006|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Eleven|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.011.shtml?] to a tropical storm on October 24 as its low-level circulation became detached from the diminishing convection.cite web|author=Rhome & Pasch|year=2006|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Fourteen|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.014.shtml?] The storm then turned to the northeast after passing near Socorro Island.cite web|author=Rhome & Pasch|year=2006|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Fifteen|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.015.shtml?] Despite increasing wind shear of over 50 mph (80 km/h), Paul remained a tropical storm while its circulation remained on the southwest side of its developing deep convection. Early on October 25, the storm passed about 100 miles (160 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.cite web|author=Avila|year=2006|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Seventeen|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.017.shtml?] The circulation briefly became involved with the deep convection as it accelerated northeastward, though as it approached the coast of Sinaloa, the center again decoupled from the upper level circulation.cite web|author=Rhome & Pasch|year=2006|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Nineteen|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.019.shtml?] Later that day, Paul weakened to a tropical depression a short distance off the coast of Mexico, and turned to the north.cite web|Blake & Franklin|year=2006|title=Tropicaol Depression Paul Discussion Twenty|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-26|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.020.shtml?] Early the next day, the depression, devoid of any deep convection, made landfall near Isla Altamura in northwestern Sinaloa. Hours later, the National Hurricane Center issued the last advisory on the dissipating tropical depression.cite web|author=Mainelli|year=2006|title=Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Twenty-Two|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-26|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.022.shtml?]

Preparations

As Paul became a hurricane, the government of Mexico issued a hurricane watch for Baja California Sur from Agua Blanca on the west coast to La Paz on the east coast.cite web|author=Avila|year=2006|title=Hurricane Paul Public Advisory Eight|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.public.008.shtml?] When a weakening trend was evident as the storm turned to the northeast, the hurricane watch was replaced with a tropical storm warning.cite web|author=Avila|year=2006|title=Hurricane Paul Public Advisory Thirteen|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.public.013.shtml?] 45 hours before the storm struck land, the government of Mexico issued a tropical storm watch from Mazatlán to San Evaristo along the coast of Sinaloa. When Paul was expected to weaken to a tropical depression before landfall, the tropical storm watch for mainland Mexico was discontinued.cite web|author=Beven & Landsea|year=2006|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Sixteen|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.016.shtml?] When Paul retained tropical storm status for longer than expected, and was now expected to make landfall as a tropical storm, a tropical storm warning was issued from Mazatlán to Atlata,cite web|author=Rhome & Pasch|year=2006|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Eighteen|publisher=NHC|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ep17/ep172006.discus.018.shtml?] which was later discontinued as Paul weakened to a tropical depression.

Emergency officials near the southern tip of Baja California closed schools,cite news|author=Frank Jack Daniels|year=2006|title=Paul fades to tropical storm in run at Mexico|publisher=Reuters|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-10-24T215420Z_01_N23366009_RTRUKOC_0_US-WEATHER-PAUL.xml&WTmodLoc=NewsArt-C2-NextArticle-1] while rescue workers ordered for the evacuation of more than 1,500 people from shanty towns. Local police officers went door-to-door to inform the potentially affected residents. Buses carried the evacuated citizens to schools temporarily set up as shelters.cite news|author=Frank Jack Daniels|year=2006|title=Mexican resort third time lucky as storm misses|publisher=Reuters|accessdate=2006-10-25|url=http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyID=2006-10-25T171824Z_01_N23366009_RTRUKOC_0_US-WEATHER-PAUL.xml&pageNumber=0&imageid=&c
] A hotel in Cabo San Lucas informed its guests of the approaching storm, and organized indoor activities for those that stayed. Several tourists ended their vacations early and left through local airports.cite news|author=Associated Press|year=2006|title=Hurricane Paul threatens southern Baja California|accessdate=2006-10-26|url=http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2006-10-21-mexico-storm_x.htm?csp=34] The threat of the storm closed the port at Cabo San Lucas, causing delays in a local fishing competition. In Sinaloa, authorities evacuated over 3,000 people in risk of flooding.cite news|author=Associated Press|year=2006|title=Remnants of Paul soak Mexican mainland; storm expected to dissipate quickly|accessdate=2006-10-26|url=http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html?id=1b3d1956-fe51-4179-b748-a0f6acb7a33a&k=9401]

Impact

The National Hurricane Center noted that the precursor disturbance had the potential to drop heavy rainfall which could result in life-threatening flash flooding or mudslides in Oaxaca and Guerrero. However, no damage reports were received there.

In southern Baja California, a fisherman slipped off rocks due to strong seas, while an American tourist was swept out to sea due to rough surf; both were killed.cite news|author=Mark Stevenson|year=2006|title=Tropical Storm Paul Weakens|publisher=Associated Press|accessdate=2006-10-26|url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/25/AR2006102500216.html] Two others were killed in Sinaloa when their truck was swept away by a swollen river. [cite news|title=Hurricane Paul kills two in northwestern Mexico|url=http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-10-27T035751Z_01_N26184679_RTRUKOC_0_US-WEATHER-PAUL.xml&WTmodLoc=IntNewsHome_C2_worldNews-5 |publisher=Reuters|date=2006-10-26|accessdate=2006-11-01] Paul was the third hurricane in the year to threaten Los Cabos, the others being John and Lane. The hurricane caused little damage in the area, only producing gusty winds and some rainfall. Paul dropped moderate rainfall across mainland Mexico, including a 24-hour total of 2.3 inches (58 mm) in Mazatlán, Sinaloacite news|author=Alex Morales|year=2006|title=Tropical Depression Paul Rains on Mexico, Weakens Over Land|publisher=Bloomberg|accessdate=2006-10-26|url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aF0aZWTs7Qbs&refer=latin_america] and over 8 inches (200 mm) in isolated locations.cite web|author=La Journada|year=2006|title=Emergencia en 109 municipios de Sinaloa por Paul|languagee=Spanish|accessdate=2006-11-30|url=http://www.sagarpa.gob.mx/cgcs/sintesis/sintesis/2006/octubre/ss_26.pdf] The rainfall led to flooding, the worst of which occurred in Villa Juarez. There, a canal overflowed, while the rainfall flooded streets with up to 3.3 feet (1 m) of water. 5,000 houses were damaged from the flooding, displacing 20,000 people.cite web|author=Dartmouth Flood Observatory|year=2006|title=2006 Global Register of Major Flood Events|accessdate=2006-11-06|url=http://www.dartmouth.edu/%7Efloods/Archives/2006sum.htm] The passage of the storm damaged more than convert|3700|acre|km2|0 of crop lands, primarily beans and corn.

References

ee also

* 2006 Pacific hurricane season

External links

* [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/PAUL.shtml? The NHC's archive] on Hurricane Paul.