Foresight Exchange

Foresight Exchange

The Foresight Exchange (aka FX) is an online prediction market, active since 1994, in which players attempt to gain a high score by accurately predicting the future. Players trade play money on claims about the future, and if they predict the future correctly their net worth in the market will increase.

For example, one claim, "The Future of IT Jobs in America" [http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=ITJOBS] , predicts that there will be 35% more IT Jobs in America in 2012 than in 2002. This claim is contentious because of things like offshoring — the movement of IT jobs to countries like India and China. Those who believe there will be fewer jobs in the future will sell the claim, reducing its price, and those who believe there will be more will buy the claim, raising its price.

An observer can determine from the current market price what the consensus about the future is: If the IT Jobs claim trades above $0.50 that implies there will probably be an increase in the number of IT Jobs.

See also

*Robin Hanson

External links

* [http://www.ideosphere.com Foresight Exchange]


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